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1 hour ago, aaid said:

Not really.  Still waiting for the verdict in his contempt trial.  I'll be amazed if 1. he isn't found guilty and 2. he doesn't go to jail.   

The guy who got six months pled guilty and has a smaller audience although he did directly name five of the complainers and then subsequently deleted the tweets.  

 For Murray it's jigsaw ID but easily provable, he pled not guilty, his reach is further, he hasn't removed or edited any of the articles in question and he was warned about one of the articles in advance of the trial and continued to "reoffend".

Maximum sentence for this offence is 2 years.

Thought so. 

I’d need to read more about the specifics to see if I agree with him going to prison if found guilty. 

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2 hours ago, ParisInAKilt said:

Thought so. 

I’d need to read more about the specifics to see if I agree with him going to prison if found guilty. 

Having had the trial and a chance to look at the evidence presented by both sides, I think its perfectly fine to express an opinion on whether you think someone is guilty or not., don't you.

 

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So sarwar, has he a chance of toppling sturgeon? Is this going to be like when Salmond and robertson lost their seats? The unionist are mobilising, the snp is in a mess, pro indy bloggers are tearing the SNP a new arsehole, shit legislation is being passed and the party seem to be getting lead down the garden path by woke nutters,, how can this possibly go wrong

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3 hours ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

So sarwar, has he a chance of toppling sturgeon? Is this going to be like when Salmond and robertson lost their seats? The unionist are mobilising, the snp is in a mess, pro indy bloggers are tearing the SNP a new arsehole, shit legislation is being passed and the party seem to be getting lead down the garden path by woke nutters,, how can this possibly go wrong

Dream on. Sarwar? Who point blank refuses IndyRef2 on the grounds he doesn't want it? Hmm Glaswegians are going to go a bundle on a candidate like that.

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What's actually in the Hate Crime bill?

http://archive.ph/tub59

Peat Worrier sums stuff up. And concludes:

"Whether or not you agree with the idea there should be offences of stirring up hatred on the statute book – and that’s a philosophical question – it is an objective legal fact that the new stirring-up offence will be considerably harder to prove than a whole gamut of crimes already on the statute book which already apply to what you say and what you tweet. "

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1 hour ago, exile said:

What's actually in the Hate Crime bill?

http://archive.ph/tub59

Peat Worrier sums stuff up. And concludes:

"Whether or not you agree with the idea there should be offences of stirring up hatred on the statute book – and that’s a philosophical question – it is an objective legal fact that the new stirring-up offence will be considerably harder to prove than a whole gamut of crimes already on the statute book which already apply to what you say and what you tweet. "

You can guarantee that all those who state this is the worst piece of legislation ever won't be bothered to read this.

 

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7 hours ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

So sarwar, has he a chance of toppling sturgeon? Is this going to be like when Salmond and robertson lost their seats? 

Presumably if Labour took that FPTP seat the SNP would get a couple on the list and Sturgeon would be returned?

 

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10 minutes ago, Toepoke said:

Presumably if Labour took that FPTP seat the SNP would get a couple on the list and Sturgeon would be returned?

 

Not sure where she would stand on the list vote, it’s unlikely he will beat her, it would take one of the biggest swings ever to displace her 

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16 minutes ago, Toepoke said:

Presumably if Labour took that FPTP seat the SNP would get a couple on the list and Sturgeon would be returned?

 

Nope. The SNP's new policy of having a candidate who is either disabled or from an ethnic minority background as first preference on each regional list means Nicola Sturgeon is second on the Glasgow list. The first candidate is Roza Salih.

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5 minutes ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

Not sure where she would stand on the list vote, it’s unlikely he will beat her, it would take one of the biggest swings ever to displace her 

It’s a fucking stunt. Even he knows he has no chance of toppling Sturgeon. It’s all about headlines and giving crumbs of comfort to a desperately terrified Unionist media. Why not go the whole way and have the AFI nominate the Bath loony as a candidate 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣

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10 hours ago, exile said:

What's actually in the Hate Crime bill?

http://archive.ph/tub59

Peat Worrier sums stuff up. And concludes:

"Whether or not you agree with the idea there should be offences of stirring up hatred on the statute book – and that’s a philosophical question – it is an objective legal fact that the new stirring-up offence will be considerably harder to prove than a whole gamut of crimes already on the statute book which already apply to what you say and what you tweet. "

Thanks for posting this. Great ammo for when this debate comes amp and people are banging on about their freedom of speech being stripped or scotland turning into North korea

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7 hours ago, Toepoke said:

Presumably if Labour took that FPTP seat the SNP would get a couple on the list and Sturgeon would be returned?

 

 

7 hours ago, scotlad said:

Nope. The SNP's new policy of having a candidate who is either disabled or from an ethnic minority background as first preference on each regional list means Nicola Sturgeon is second on the Glasgow list. The first candidate is Roza Salih.

Surely if SNP get a couple and Sturgeon is 2nd then she would be returned.

I'm not able to follow the rationale here, what am I missing (opening the floodgates asking that I know :D )

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I guess that two party leaders standing in the same constituency is unusual and I can understand why it's "news".

However, Anas Sarwar was actually adopted as the Labour candidate for Glasgow Southside in August 2019.

Maybe he genuinely believes that he can turn Nicola Sturgeon over but I suspect that the truth is somewhat different.

Back then, he'd lost the leadership election to Richard Leonard and had been thrown off Labour's front bench team for briefing against him.  At that point he was somewhat in the wilderness.   Corbyn was still UK Labour, Leonard was Corbyn's man.

I suspect that going for the candidacy in Southside was part of a long game.  If he's going to stand in any constituency then Southside would be the natural one as large sections of it overlap with the Central constituency that he and his father before him held at Westminster.

I imagine he was looking at another run at the Labour leadership but after the Holyrood elections, maybe he could put a dent in Nicola Sturgeon's majority, maybe not, but even in a losing position, he could still build a narrative of "I wasn't afraid to take Nicola Sturgeon on in her back yard, I'm the guy to take her on in Holyrood", that sort of guff.

Of course, events have a way of taking over plans and he now finds himself in the position of Labour leader before the election.

He's got two choices, continue as the candidate in Southside, maybe he wins - it looks unlikely at this point - but if he loses, he takes it on the chin.  The SNP will make a bit of noise about it, but that will die down as its not a good look to keep kicking losers.

On the other hand, if he were to stand down, he would have the charge following him around for ever more that he was afraid to take on Nicola Sturgeon which would be much more damaging politically.

Put it this way, I bet if he wasn't already the candidate, he wouldn't be standing.

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1 hour ago, phart said:

 

Surely if SNP get a couple and Sturgeon is 2nd then she would be returned.

I'm not able to follow the rationale here, what am I missing (opening the floodgates asking that I know :D )

SNP list votes in Glasgow are high enough that for any constituency seats they lost they would likely pick up the same number of list seats, to a point.

That's not guaranteed as with list seats it's not just how many votes you have and seats you win, but how many votes and seats *all* the other parties get will also impact the distribution.

The scenario that the anti-SNP bloggers and their supporters are getting so aerated about is that Sarwar beats her in Southside, but the SNP win all the other seats.  The list votes give the SNP an additional seat, that goes to Roza Salih who is #1 on the list - she's one of the "Glasgow Girls" - but not enough for a second, so Sturgeon is not re-elected.

They love this for a couple of reasons, firstly it gets rid of the hated Sturgeon and secondly its as a direct result of Woko Harum taking over the NEC - at least that's how they see it from their world view.

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10 hours ago, colins96 said:

Certainly felt hate on this board before. 

Fortunately being an irritating twat isn't one of the protected categories in the bill.

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On 3/14/2021 at 11:28 AM, TDYER63 said:

 

The one thing Indy supporters have is our one united goal,  and a vehicle to take us there. Unionists are split between Tories and Labour.  Yet in truly scottish style we may still manage to grab defeat from the jaws of victory. 

Ask yourself why there is a big rammy going on in the SNP right at the time that indy should be closer than ever. If this Salmond thing was initiated by Sturgeon, she is either pretty stupid or a fifth columnist.  Who benefits from a split in the indy movement?  it's all a bit to convenient for the unionists. Maybe start with finding out who is really behind the woke nonsense, and why they have been given such free reign to impose their keech without the membership ever being consulted.  I find it hard to fathom what is really going on, but as an SNP member who first joined in 1968 when I was still at school, I resent a bunch of arrivistes elbowing their way on to the NEC and pushing through unpopular personal agendas that are harmful to the indy movement. Quite why the FM is in thrall to them I have no real idea, but allowing Fiona Robertson, a right weirdo, free reign to lead an NEC meeting as a stand-in when she was voted off the NEC a few months ago is outrageous.  She must have some really incriminating stuff on Nicola Sturgeon.

The SNP needs to be restored to being a properly democratic party - at the moment it clearly is not.

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2 minutes ago, Alibi said:

Ask yourself why there is a big rammy going on in the SNP right at the time that indy should be closer than ever. If this Salmond thing was initiated by Sturgeon, she is either pretty stupid or a fifth columnist.  Who benefits from a split in the indy movement?  it's all a bit to convenient for the unionists. Maybe start with finding out who is really behind the woke nonsense, and why they have been given such free reign to impose their keech without the membership ever being consulted.  I find it hard to fathom what is really going on, but as an SNP member who first joined in 1968 when I was still at school, I resent a bunch of arrivistes elbowing their way on to the NEC and pushing through unpopular personal agendas that are harmful to the indy movement. Quite why the FM is in thrall to them I have no real idea, but allowing Fiona Robertson, a right weirdo, free reign to lead an NEC meeting as a stand-in when she was voted off the NEC a few months ago is outrageous.  She must have some really incriminating stuff on Nicola Sturgeon.

The SNP needs to be restored to being a properly democratic party - at the moment it clearly is not.

Well you could just as equally lay the blame at Salmond's door. If he had accepted winning the case and that be done with it then things would not have unfolded this way.

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7 hours ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

Not that it makes the recent hate crime bill any better, i see the tories are trying to push through an anti protesting bill which actually makes the hate crime bill look good 🙈

From what I've seen, their Policing bill really is bordering on despotic. However, like the HCB, I'll wait until further details become apparent.

Also like the HCB, I'll be surprised if amendments aren't made to ameliorate some of the more, well, despotic bits. I can't see moderate Tories even voting for bill that allows Police to seize gypsy or travellers vehicles, or jail for up to 10 years for damaging a statue.

Plus, despite their authoritarian tendencies, the Tories are actually quite weak-willed, so if they sense the public mood is against these proposals they'll soon change them.

6 hours ago, aaid said:

SNP list votes in Glasgow are high enough that for any constituency seats they lost they would likely pick up the same number of list seats, to a point.

That's not guaranteed as with list seats it's not just how many votes you have and seats you win, but how many votes and seats *all* the other parties get will also impact the distribution.

The scenario that the anti-SNP bloggers and their supporters are getting so aerated about is that Sarwar beats her in Southside, but the SNP win all the other seats.  The list votes give the SNP an additional seat, that goes to Roza Salih who is #1 on the list - she's one of the "Glasgow Girls" - but not enough for a second, so Sturgeon is not re-elected.

They love this for a couple of reasons, firstly it gets rid of the hated Sturgeon and secondly its as a direct result of Woko Harum taking over the NEC - at least that's how they see it from their world view.

The a good summary, probably better than I could have managed with my patchy understanding of the D'Hondt system! 

In theory, of course, she could get back in on the list even as second placed candidate, but it would require another SNP candidate to fail to hold their constituency seat and for the SNP's share of the list vote to be sufficiently high enough.

For Sarwar, running against Sturgeon is a free hit. If he loses, even by some distance, it'll be a disappointment but no great shock; if he cuts into Sturgeon's majority it'll be seen as a victory of sorts; and if he wins outright, even fractionally, well, that would be seismic.

Whether or not he can win obviously depends on how popular he is in the constituency - and how unpopular NS is.  He lives locally, he grew up in the area, the area itself has a large Muslim Asian community (do people vote on ethnic lines there though?), all of which you'd think might work in his favour. Sturgeon has been criticised, fairly or unfairly, for the situation in Govanhill, as well as more well known issues that have occurred during her spell in government, which you'd think might go against her. 

I wouldn't be at all surprised to see a swing to Labour, but considering NS won more than 60% of the vote last time unseating her would be a huge task - but definitely not impossible.

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3 hours ago, Alibi said:

Ask yourself why there is a big rammy going on in the SNP right at the time that indy should be closer than ever. If this Salmond thing was initiated by Sturgeon, she is either pretty stupid or a fifth columnist.  Who benefits from a split in the indy movement?  it's all a bit to convenient for the unionists. Maybe start with finding out who is really behind the woke nonsense, and why they have been given such free reign to impose their keech without the membership ever being consulted.  I find it hard to fathom what is really going on, but as an SNP member who first joined in 1968 when I was still at school, I resent a bunch of arrivistes elbowing their way on to the NEC and pushing through unpopular personal agendas that are harmful to the indy movement. Quite why the FM is in thrall to them I have no real idea, but allowing Fiona Robertson, a right weirdo, free reign to lead an NEC meeting as a stand-in when she was voted off the NEC a few months ago is outrageous.  She must have some really incriminating stuff on Nicola Sturgeon.

The SNP needs to be restored to being a properly democratic party - at the moment it clearly is not.

Well said and i can relate to that completely,, after the elections i can see a real rammy kicking off regardless of the result, many are holding back due to the forth coming elections. 

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