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10 hours ago, Caledonian Craig said:

That apathy and disatisfaction is not goingvto fade away anytime soon given that Brexit is being drawn out. That is two good results for the SNP in the last few weeks and backs up polls that suggest the SNP are to increase their seats at the next GE to around 45 seats.

I agree, and it is possible the SNP would do well in a general election should one be called. But I think their success would be due to unionist voters staying away from the ballot box, or voting for an independence party or perhaps lib dem as a protest vote. 

If it came to Indyref2 they would shite it and revert to type. I do not think there is enough of a swing towards independence at the moment and tbh I don't think even Brexit dragging on will change it much. People will just become used to it .

The SNP need to be very careful not to confuse polls showing an increase in their support with an increase in support for independence.  

I hope I am wrong. 

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On 4/13/2019 at 10:25 AM, TDYER63 said:

I agree, and it is possible the SNP would do well in a general election should one be called. But I think their success would be due to unionist voters staying away from the ballot box, or voting for an independence party or perhaps lib dem as a protest vote. 

If it came to Indyref2 they would shite it and revert to type. I do not think there is enough of a swing towards independence at the moment and tbh I don't think even Brexit dragging on will change it much. People will just become used to it .

The SNP need to be very careful not to confuse polls showing an increase in their support with an increase in support for independence.  

I hope I am wrong. 

Oh dont get me wrong I am not confusing GE sucess for incteased Indy support. First things first. However, the stronger the result at a GE then the stronger the hand they have in pressing for Indyref2. Also lets remember that not all Yes voters are SNP voters. I still maintain that Yes could probably guarantee 35% right now at another indyref. It is a matter of convincing the don't knows. This time around I see that as a more do-able task than 2014 given as to what has happened since then.

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3 minutes ago, exile said:

Fuck sake

You would think politically aware "celebrities" would not come out with this kind of shit

Even if she wasnt politically aware does she not remember the last time the carrot of an SNP/Labour pact to form a government was wangled at the English electorate ?

Even withstanding that, as i have said many times before, Labour are even more Unionist and Establishment than the Tories

Labour and Conservative swapping power every 8-12 years is like the film Snowpiercer

Ralph Miliband exposed this yonks ago

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First Minister calling for an Independence Referendum within the lifetime of the current Scottish Parliament, i.e. before May 2021.

Starting to introduce legislation to enable this and have it in place by the end of this year.

 

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28 minutes ago, aaid said:

First Minister calling for an Independence Referendum within the lifetime of the current Scottish Parliament, i.e. before May 2021.

Starting to introduce legislation to enable this and have it in place by the end of this year.

 

I'd be really interested to hear Willie Rennie's view on this... :lol: 

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Just now, Parklife said:

I'd be really interested to hear Willie Rennie's view on this... :lol: 

Funnily enough, he's not happy about it. 

 

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You can only assume that SNP are now working to a timeline something like this: 

Oct 2019 - UK exits the EU

Dec 2019 - ScotGov complete Indyref2 legislation through Holyrood

Jan 2020 - Request Section 30,  rejected by Westminster

Feb 2020 - Begin court proceedings to challenge Westminster decision

 

Court case to take around 1 year but ultimately conclude that the power sits with Westminster. 

The SNP will want that court decision to land at the right time to kick-start campaigning for Holyrood May 2021 on the explicit demonstration that Scotland is powerless. 

 

Problem it creates however is: 

a) Big gamble whether they can win a majority *

b) Even if they do,  what can they do to get a legitimate referendum? 

 

*In fairness - that challenge is coming regardless. Westminster being proven to further castrate the Scottish Parliament can only help the SNP retain power - but doesn't necessary bring answers around resolving the constitutional impasse. 

Edited by AlfieMoon

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56 minutes ago, Ally Bongo said:

Wings seems to be very much on the side of those who want to go for a second referendum come hell or high water, in the hope that Yes would win. I'd love to think it's as easy as that but I can understand the SNP taking a more softly softly approach to show to soft No voters from 2014 that they can run a sensible, sustainable government.

Getting the face paint on and demanding freedom isn't going to work.

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Sturgeon has always said that they'd wait to see the final outcome of Brexit. It is the sensible move. Diving in for a referendum before that point would be rejected and give unionists a golden chance to say: 'You see this was never about Brexit at all. It is just independence at whatever the cost.'

It would also alienate waivers. Voters who will only decide how to vote once it is clear Scotland are taken out of the EU despite how it voted. Wait and those still holding onto a slim hope Brexit will not happen will be more pliable to voting Yes. 

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4 hours ago, ParisInAKilt said:

Destined to fail having a referendum so soon after the last vote and before the fall out of Brexit is known. 

I agree, until we know what flavour of brexit, it will not be clear what the alternative is. all positions are minority positions (with the possible exception of 'none of the above') and the game is to get your minority position to be the biggest minority. Look at all those parliamentary attempts to get a different deal - they all failed. I mean, if you pit independence against all possible unionist outcomes, the combined unionist position may won. But if you pit it against a specific  reality, who knows which way the cards would fall?

If Britain ends up with a hard Brexit, then it makes sense to court the pro EU ex-No vote, and hope the anti-EU yes vote will call for Yes despite Brexit.

If Britain ends up with No Brexit or a Brexit so soft that Leavers think it's as good as still being in, then it would seem to make sense for a Yes caomaign to leave the question of EU open, to court the anti EU (ex) Yes vote. The bottom line being, lest Scotland decide.

Who knows?

Edited by exile

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7 hours ago, exile said:

I agree, until we know what flavour of brexit, it will not be clear what the alternative is. all positions are minority positions (with the possible exception of 'none of the above') and the game is to get your minority position to be the biggest minority. Look at all those parliamentary attempts to get a different deal - they all failed. I mean, if you pit independence against all possible unionist outcomes, the combined unionist position may won. But if you pit it against a specific  reality, who knows which way the cards would fall?

If Britain ends up with a hard Brexit, then it makes sense to court the pro EU ex-No vote, and hope the anti-EU yes vote will call for Yes despite Brexit.

If Britain ends up with No Brexit or a Brexit so soft that Leavers think it's as good as still being in, then it would seem to make sense for a Yes caomaign to leave the question of EU open, to court the anti EU (ex) Yes vote. The bottom line being, lest Scotland decide.

Who knows?

The mandate from the 2016 election only applies if the UK leaves the EU, so no Brexit, no mandate.

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4 hours ago, aaid said:

The mandate from the 2016 election only applies if the UK leaves the EU, so no Brexit, no mandate.

Yes, but the way we have been mistreated in the last 3 years is on its own grounds for indyref.

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1 hour ago, Alibi said:

Yes, but the way we have been mistreated in the last 3 years is on its own grounds for indyref.

I'd say it's certainly grounds to stick it in a manifesto for 2021 and fight the Holyrood elections on it.

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