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Look at Glenrothes that election shouldn't have been allowed to stand since the register went missing, there was no way to confirm the result.

At the very least the timing of the Salmond accusation removing him from the debate was serendipitous for Leave.

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1 hour ago, phart said:

 

At the very least the timing of the Salmond accusation removing him from the debate was serendipitous for Leave.

Can you expand on that a wee bit? I don't understand the link there.

 

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I find that all this Ruth Davidson stuff coming up now is pretty interesting.   It seemed to start off with some big hitters, specifically Angus Robertson, Alyn Smith and - possibly - Joanna Cherry looking to take her on in Edinburgh Central at the next HR elections.  I think any one of those three would beat her in a straight race.  Davidson's majority was only 610 and this was one of only two seats where the Greens stood a constituency candidate, so the Indy vote was split.   TBF, to the Greens, they actually picked up an extra list seat in Lothians as a result of this, had the SNP won in this seat then the last list seat would have gone to the Tories rather than Andy Wightman.

Now there seems to be some talk of her looking to take on Joanna Cherry in Edinburgh South West.
 
I suspect that's all "paper-talk" for a few reasons.   


If the two parliaments run to term - which is a big if, especially where Westminster is concerned - then the next Holyrood elections will be in 2021 and Westminster in 2022, so Holyrood is first.    There are three possible outcomes.  If the Tories improve on their 2016 showing, I can't see that they would be the biggest party but if the overall Indy majority was lost, then its likely they would be in a very strong position to limit what the government - probably SNP - was able to do.   The other two options are essentially the same, the Tories stall and there's no real change to the arithmetic of Holyrood or they actually slip back a bit and lose some seats.  In those cases Davidson's reputation is damaged especially if she loses her constituency seat - she'll no doubt get in on the list but that would be embarrassing for her.

On that basis, I couldn't see her going up against Joanna Cherry in 2022 and being successful.  Obviously a lot can change between now and then but Joanna Cherry's personal profile has been greatly enhanced over the last few years and in a constituency that voted 72% to Remain, she has the benefit of actually having tried to do something to stop it.     I don't think its any secret that Ruth Davidson is also a terrible constituency MSP and that will go against her.

If there's a snap UK GE, then if Davidson stands, she's effectively saying that she's got no chance of being FM - she doesn't have a chance but it's obviously a different thing to admit that - and this would essentially mean that she's throwing the Scottish Conservatives under a bus for the next Holyrood elections.   

Edinburgh South West is good example of what happened in many SNP-held seats in 2017 - the reasons why have never been completely explained - where the SNP vote from 2015 didn't turn out.

The turnout in terms of actual numbers wasn't that different 71% & 69%.   Labour's vote was down slightly, the Lib Dems was just about flat.   In 2015 there was a UKIP candidate who got 1072 votes, presumably they all went to the Tories, however there was also a Green candidate who got just under 2000 votes, so where did those votes go?   The SNP's votes went down by about 4,500 and the Tories went up by 6000.     I can't believe that there was a switch of 6000 SNP and Greens to the Tories, all I can think is that the Tories got the vote out and the SNP didn't.  




 

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16 minutes ago, aaid said:

I find that all this Ruth Davidson stuff coming up now is pretty interesting.   It seemed to start off with some big hitters, specifically Angus Robertson, Alyn Smith and - possibly - Joanna Cherry looking to take her on in Edinburgh Central at the next HR elections.  I think any one of those three would beat her in a straight race.  Davidson's majority was only 610 and this was one of only two seats where the Greens stood a constituency candidate, so the Indy vote was split.   TBF, to the Greens, they actually picked up an extra list seat in Lothians as a result of this, had the SNP won in this seat then the last list seat would have gone to the Tories rather than Andy Wightman.

Now there seems to be some talk of her looking to take on Joanna Cherry in Edinburgh South West.
 
I suspect that's all "paper-talk" for a few reasons.   


If the two parliaments run to term - which is a big if, especially where Westminster is concerned - then the next Holyrood elections will be in 2021 and Westminster in 2022, so Holyrood is first.    There are three possible outcomes.  If the Tories improve on their 2016 showing, I can't see that they would be the biggest party but if the overall Indy majority was lost, then its likely they would be in a very strong position to limit what the government - probably SNP - was able to do.   The other two options are essentially the same, the Tories stall and there's no real change to the arithmetic of Holyrood or they actually slip back a bit and lose some seats.  In those cases Davidson's reputation is damaged especially if she loses her constituency seat - she'll no doubt get in on the list but that would be embarrassing for her.

On that basis, I couldn't see her going up against Joanna Cherry in 2022 and being successful.  Obviously a lot can change between now and then but Joanna Cherry's personal profile has been greatly enhanced over the last few years and in a constituency that voted 72% to Remain, she has the benefit of actually having tried to do something to stop it.     I don't think its any secret that Ruth Davidson is also a terrible constituency MSP and that will go against her.

If there's a snap UK GE, then if Davidson stands, she's effectively saying that she's got no chance of being FM - she doesn't have a chance but it's obviously a different thing to admit that - and this would essentially mean that she's throwing the Scottish Conservatives under a bus for the next Holyrood elections.   

Edinburgh South West is good example of what happened in many SNP-held seats in 2017 - the reasons why have never been completely explained - where the SNP vote from 2015 didn't turn out.

The turnout in terms of actual numbers wasn't that different 71% & 69%.   Labour's vote was down slightly, the Lib Dems was just about flat.   In 2015 there was a UKIP candidate who got 1072 votes, presumably they all went to the Tories, however there was also a Green candidate who got just under 2000 votes, so where did those votes go?   The SNP's votes went down by about 4,500 and the Tories went up by 6000.     I can't believe that there was a switch of 6000 SNP and Greens to the Tories, all I can think is that the Tories got the vote out and the SNP didn't.  




 

Most probably the majority of previous snp voters didn't vote, 2015 had a lot of yes supporters whom possibly wouldn’t have voted had it not been for the “indy bounce” and then the same will happen IMO with brexit supporters who voted tory 2017 due to the “brexit bounce” they will lose a big portion of voters

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1 minute ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

Most probably the majority of previous snp voters didn't vote, 2015 had a lot of yes supporters whom possibly wouldn’t have voted had it not been for the “indy bounce” and then the same will happen IMO with brexit supporters who voted tory 2017 due to the “brexit bounce” they will lose a big portion of voters

I agree with most of that.  I don't think though that in 2017 there was a brexit bounce as such in a constituency like Edinburgh South West - I think that had one of the highest Remain votes in the UK - but more a reaction against a possible Indy Ref, which was Brexit-related but not down to Brexit itself.

Just checked the results by council area & Edinburgh had the highest remain vote in Scotland and second highest outwith London - third if you include Gibraltar.

 

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3 hours ago, phart said:

Look at Glenrothes that election shouldn't have been allowed to stand since the register went missing, there was no way to confirm the result.

At the very least the timing of the Salmond accusation removing him from the debate was serendipitous for Leave.

I have often wondered if the wheels were set in motion to remove Salmond from the picture the day after after LEAVE won the vote. 

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8 hours ago, Orraloon said:

Can you expand on that a wee bit? I don't understand the link there.

 

Salmond right now would be ripping all this pish to shreds as such he is now completely silent because of the charges.

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47 minutes ago, phart said:

Salmond right now would be ripping all this pish to shreds as such he is now completely silent because of the charges.

What's that got to do with Glenrothes though?

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9 hours ago, aaid said:

I The turnout in terms of actual numbers wasn't that different 71% & 69%.   Labour's vote was down slightly, the Lib Dems was just about flat.   In 2015 there was a UKIP candidate who got 1072 votes, presumably they all went to the Tories, however there was also a Green candidate who got just under 2000 votes, so where did those votes go?   The SNP's votes went down by about 4,500 and the Tories went up by 6000.     I can't believe that there was a switch of 6000 SNP and Greens to the Tories, all I can think is that the Tories got the vote out and the SNP didn't.  




 

I think it was similar to the North East.  Lefty wing Labour , antoi blairites voted yes and came over to SNP, they were enticed by Corbyn and went back to Labour and a lot of rump labour( those who were left after 2015) voted Tory for the Union. 

Combined with an underwhelming SNP campaign as well all us activists, who were knakkered after 6 elections in 6 years, 

 which caused SNP voters to stay home. 

Just my Opinion

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Ian Murray playing the House Jock in the HOC again

Brexiteers are in meltdown particularly Bill Cash and John Redwood

 

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1 hour ago, aaid said:

What's that got to do with Glenrothes though?

both possible examples of "dark money" shadiness.

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19 hours ago, ParisInAKilt said:

As someone who hates most politicians, Davidson is especially horrible. Ticks too many diversity boxes to fail. 

To be fair, she dragged the Tories ahead of Dugdale's Labour, probably for mostly "traditional" reasons banging the drum for queen and country. 

Edited by exile

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35 minutes ago, exile said:

To be fair, she dragged the Tories ahead of Dugdale's Labour, probably for mostly "traditional" reasons banging the drum for queen and country. 

She’s a media darling right enough 

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15 hours ago, phart said:

both possible examples of "dark money" shadiness.

Glenrothes was probably just straightforward old-school Tammany Hall style "ballot box stuffing" electoral fraud than anything with more sinister undertones.   More akin to Tower Hamlets. 

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27 minutes ago, aaid said:

Glenrothes was probably just straightforward old-school Tammany Hall style "ballot box stuffing" electoral fraud than anything with more sinister undertones.   More akin to Tower Hamlets. 

Yeah but that's why the register had to go missing/stolen. No way to check it. If dead folk were voting etc.

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https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-47878488

UK's biggest lottery winners Colin and Chris Weir to divorce

"Defended making a £1m donation to the Independence Campaign"

"Defended" ?

Colonialist Cuntbag of an organisation

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An interesting result in an Embra (Leith Walk) council by-election last night.

SNP: 35.7% (+1.4)
GRN: 25.5% (+5.9)
LAB: 15.5% (-7.0)
CON: 10.7% (-3.7)
LDEM: 8.6% (+4.8)

I've never seen anything like that before.  

 

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If Ruth does decide to stand as an MP in Edinburgh, it won't be in Edinburgh North and Leith after last night's council by-election.

61.2% for pro-Indy parties, the Tories put a lot of effort in locally and finished fourth.  Labour vote down significantly as well.

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2 hours ago, ErsatzThistle said:

An interesting result in an Embra (Leith Walk) council by-election last night.

SNP: 35.7% (+1.4)
GRN: 25.5% (+5.9)
LAB: 15.5% (-7.0)
CON: 10.7% (-3.7)
LDEM: 8.6% (+4.8)

I've never seen anything like that before.  

 

Yes this has caught my attention, the two main unionist partys losing 10% of their vote between them and a majority pro indy vote between the snp and greens, very interesting, 

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Not sure we should read too much into a result with only 30% turnout. That's a decent turnout for a local by-election but they never tell the whole picture.

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7 minutes ago, Orraloon said:

Not sure we should read too much into a result with only 30% turnout. That's a decent turnout for a local by-election but they never tell the whole picture.

I agree. It could merely be a reflection of apathy or dissatisfaction by unionist voters on the Brexit shambles rather than a shift towards independence. 

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8 hours ago, TDYER63 said:

I agree. It could merely be a reflection of apathy or dissatisfaction by unionist voters on the Brexit shambles rather than a shift towards independence. 

That apathy and disatisfaction is not goingvto fade away anytime soon given that Brexit is being drawn out. That is two good results for the SNP in the last few weeks and backs up polls that suggest the SNP are to increase their seats at the next GE to around 45 seats.

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