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17 minutes ago, TDYER63 said:

ūüėā

It was some finnish think tank.

They are really interesting on how you leave a monetary union when one party is really big and one is really small... like Finland and the euro.

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The currency plan was talked about a couple ofvweeks ago. It was to remain with thevpound in the interim and then overca spellvof two to five years move to create own currency setting up a Central Bank etc.

How is that going to work? All we can do it wait and see. The alternative? Vote No and await the calamitous after effects of Brexit which will be an even more terrifying leap into the dark.

 

 

 

 

 

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5 minutes ago, Caledonian Craig said:

The currency plan was talked about a couple ofvweeks ago. It was to remain with thevpound in the interim and then overca spellvof two to five years move to create own currency setting up a Central Bank etc.

How is that going to work? All we can do it wait and see. The alternative? Vote No and await the calamitous after effects of Brexit which will be an even more terrifying leap into the dark.

 

 

 

 

 

You think there should be a referendum while brexit is still ongoing?

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9 hours ago, thplinth said:

It was some finnish think tank.

They are really interesting on how you leave a monetary union when one party is really big and one is really small... like Finland and the euro.

Go on then, dont keep us all in suspense...

I survived the night in case anyone is interested. 

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2 hours ago, Caledonian Craig said:

The currency plan was talked about a couple ofvweeks ago. It was to remain with thevpound in the interim and then overca spellvof two to five years move to create own currency setting up a Central Bank etc.

How is that going to work? All we can do it wait and see. The alternative? Vote No and await the calamitous after effects of Brexit which will be an even more terrifying leap into the dark.

 

 

 

 

 

That would be my preferred option. Jumping into a new currency from day one  would be too much of a leap though our own currency is what I would choose. A gradual transistion sounds less risky. More details would help.

I would also be interested to hear what thplinth’s  finnish think tank has to say . Try saying that after a few drinks. 

 

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14 hours ago, thplinth said:

The loss of one persons life does not equate to the small loss of millions of people freedoms. 

Ok i dinnae follow. Average speed cameras are an average of the Maximum speed limit over a distance so what freedoms are being lost? If you speed you know this and are basically breaking the law. Changing the drink drive pass rate as that  is what it is will have deterred most normal people to drive the morning after a night out. If you do get caught you have nobody to blame bar yourself. 

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It may well be the case that Sturgeon is too progressive, and has strayed from the SNP's centrist course that has served it well over the years.

However....

"virtue signalling", "the Rothschilds", "do-gooders".... Seriously lads, just join the Tory/UKIP parties already. You'll feel better for it! :P

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2 hours ago, TDYER63 said:

That would be my preferred option. Jumping into a new currency from day one  would be too much of a leap though our own currency is what I would choose. A gradual transistion sounds less risky. More details would help.

 

Have a look at Part C of the growth commission report for more detail :

https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5afc0bbbf79392ced8b73dbf/t/5b0a988c352f53c0a5132a23/1527421195436/SGC+Full+Report.pdf

 

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7 minutes ago, Dave78 said:

It may well be the case that Sturgeon is too progressive, and has strayed from the SNP's centrist course that has served it well over the years.

However....

"virtue signalling", "the Rothschilds", "do-gooders".... Seriously lads, just join the Tory/UKIP parties already. You'll feel better for it! :P

This i agree with, as the only serious party for independence it is essential that the snp hold the centre, bang in the centre as they need to apeal to everyone   

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1 hour ago, Dave78 said:

It may well be the case that Sturgeon is too progressive, and has strayed from the SNP's centrist course that has served it well over the years.

However....

"virtue signalling", "the Rothschilds", "do-gooders".... Seriously lads, just join the Tory/UKIP parties already. You'll feel better for it! :P

I’ll bite ... my Rothchilds comment was somewhat tongue in cheek but for myself anyway reading and watching stuff on things like the federal reserve make the daily arguments between SNP and labour less important. 

But for the SNP it was always going to be a struggle to govern and appeal to voters of all political views, but if doesn’t look like they are trying anymore. 

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9 hours ago, ParisInAKilt said:

You think there should be a referendum while brexit is still ongoing?

No definitely not for a few reasons.

Firstly, Nicola Sturgeon has always said we'd wsit to see if Brexit materialises and becomes a reality and then reassess. Secondly, there is already too much politically going on with Brexit that could see indyref2 being relegated to a sideshow. Thirdly, as I have said before, we need to wait as waiverers probably still cling on to a remote hope that we won't be taken out of the EU. Once that becomes a reality that will help convert more waivering undecided voters to vote Yes.

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3 hours ago, ParisInAKilt said:

I’ll bite ... my Rothchilds comment was somewhat tongue in cheek

Ah, the old "I disn't really mean what I said" or as it's become known, the Karen Bradley defence.

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5 minutes ago, Caledonian Craig said:

No definitely not for a few reasons.

Firstly, Nicola Sturgeon has always said we'd wsit to see if Brexit materialises and becomes a reality and then reassess. Secondly, there is already too much politically going on with Brexit that could see indyref2 being relegated to a sideshow. Thirdly, as I have said before, we need to wait as waiverers probably still cling on to a remote hope that we won't be taken out of the EU. Once that becomes a reality that will help convert more waivering undecided voters to vote Yes.

Agreed. Plus with uncertainty around brexit voters might be less likely to ‚Äúgamble‚ÄĚ on voting yes.¬†

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2 minutes ago, aaid said:

Ah, the old "I disn't really mean what I said" or as it's become known, the Karen Bradley defence.

Not at all, like I said in the rest of my quote learning about the federal reserve etc impacts on how I view party politics, I might be bat shift crazy but aye families like Rothschilds and rockerfellers matter even if you come across as a loon. 

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A strategy for inter-generational economic renaissance

The headline doesn't even make sense.

" In terms of currency and regulation the transition through independence to a new Scottish system can be managed in an orderly fashion which maximises stability and contains risks to jobs and investment very effectively. Future choices on currency could be considered and earned, on terms that are made clear up front,once the economy and public finances are on track to the sustainable high-performance position our ambitions require. "

 

This is cart before the horse, if "economy and public finances are on track to the sustainable high-performance position our ambitions requireE" then why would we need to change currency in the first place?

 

It's the same answer as over a decade ago when we first started discussing this, the position hasn't changed. I spent literally dozens of hours years ago thrashing this all out along with @DonnyTJS Fairlie, calmac, thplinth and everyone else at the time.

I'm not seeing any qualitative change from 15 years ago.

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12 hours ago, TDYER63 said:

Go on then, dont keep us all in suspense...

I survived the night in case anyone is interested. 

sigh...

http://en.eurothinktank.fi/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/How-to-leave-10_16.pdf

It has a lot of interesting things in it...

Quote

Historically political unity has determined the success of monetary unions (King 2016). When political unity has dissolved, the monetary union has been very likely to follow (Bordo and
Jonung 1999, Einaudi 2000). 

This means when they created the EURO they knew political unity must follow to make it work. 

Getting out of a currency union really depends a lot on the actions of the people representing the union. Are they hostile or not for example... What they say before and what they say after YES would possibly be very different. That is why you can never publish a definitive plan, nor would you want to as the element of surprise is also potentially important.

Having read it I don't fear leaving the pound but I also don't think the Scottish people have the guts for it, no where near it. They would shit their pants at the prospect. And I think the SNP know it which is why they have mostly avoided it. It is their Achilles heel.

Edited by thplinth

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35 minutes ago, thplinth said:

sigh...

http://en.eurothinktank.fi/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/How-to-leave-10_16.pdf

It has a lot of interesting things in it...

This means when they created the EURO they knew political unity must follow to make it work. 

Getting out of a currency union really depends a lot on the actions of the people representing the union. Are they hostile or not for example... What they say before and what they say after YES would possibly be very different. That is why you can never publish a definitive plan, nor would you want to as the element of surprise is also potentially important.

Having read it I don't fear leaving the pound but I also don't think the Scottish people have the guts for it, no where near it. They would shit their pants at the prospect. And I think the SNP know it which is why they have mostly avoided it. It is their Achilles heel.

ūü§Ē How about we offer¬†everyone free pants for life ?¬†

Thanks, will print it off with the growth commission and report back ūüĎ欆

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2 hours ago, phart said:

This is cart before the horse, if "economy and public finances are on track to the sustainable high-performance position our ambitions requireE" then why would we need to change currency in the first place?

.

If you assume that an independent Scotland starts on day one with the pound sterling either through a formal currency union as was mooted in 2014 or through some process of sterlingisation as it seems is currently proposed then the Scottish government will have limited to no control over monetary policy.   That is a trade off of sovereignty against initial stability and is probably somewhat moot as long as the two economies are relatively aligned.   This is currently the case and would likely still be the case on day one.

In terms of per capita GDP, the Scottish economy and the UK economy, 2018 figures are $43, 740 for Scotland as against $44,177

At some point in the future the economies of Scotland and the rUK will likely diverge, that could be because the Scottish economy over-performs the rUK economy, which is the position outlined above or it could be the reverse and the Scottish economy starts to underperform against the rUK.  

If the Scottish GDP reached the level of the Republic of Ireland at around $75,000 per capita then the Scottish Government would most likely want to have the full range of levers over monetary policy and so sterling would no longer be a feasible option.

That would be the situation set out in the Growth Commission report you've highlighted.

This was my own preferred model in 2014 and I haven't really changed my view since then.

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12 hours ago, aaid said:

If you assume that an independent Scotland starts on day one with the pound sterling either through a formal currency union as was mooted in 2014 or through some process of sterlingisation as it seems is currently proposed then the Scottish government will have limited to no control over monetary policy.   That is a trade off of sovereignty against initial stability and is probably somewhat moot as long as the two economies are relatively aligned.   This is currently the case and would likely still be the case on day one.

In terms of per capita GDP, the Scottish economy and the UK economy, 2018 figures are $43, 740 for Scotland as against $44,177

At some point in the future the economies of Scotland and the rUK will likely diverge, that could be because the Scottish economy over-performs the rUK economy, which is the position outlined above or it could be the reverse and the Scottish economy starts to underperform against the rUK.  

If the Scottish GDP reached the level of the Republic of Ireland at around $75,000 per capita then the Scottish Government would most likely want to have the full range of levers over monetary policy and so sterling would no longer be a feasible option.

That would be the situation set out in the Growth Commission report you've highlighted.

This was my own preferred model in 2014 and I haven't really changed my view since then.

Also, i haven't yet seen an explanation - from those that advocate a Scottish pound on day 1 of indy - explain where we get the reserves of foreign currency required to defend the Scots pound from speculators. Denmark holds around £50bn worth of foreign currency to defend its Krone.

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14 minutes ago, Dave78 said:

Also, i haven't yet seen an explanation - from those that advocate a Scottish pound on day 1 of indy - explain where we get the reserves of foreign currency required to defend the Scots pound from speculators. Denmark holds around £50bn worth of foreign currency to defend its Krone.

I think the assumption - valid or otherwise - is that in turn for a fair share of the UK's assets - including forex reserves - an independent Scotland would take on a fair share of its liabilities, ie, the UK debt.

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34 minutes ago, Dave78 said:

Also, i haven't yet seen an explanation - from those that advocate a Scottish pound on day 1 of indy -¬†explain where we get the reserves of foreign currency required to defend the Scots pound from speculators. Denmark holds around ¬£50bn worth of foreign currency to defend its Krone. ÔĽŅ

That came about from a specific action, i.e. when in January 15th 2015 Swiss National Bank revealed out of the blue that it would no longer peg the Swiss franc to the euro.

"Over the course of those three weeks, Danmarks Nationalbank cut its deposit rate four times ‚ÄĒ a highly unusual move ‚ÄĒ to end at negative 0.75%; temporarily suspended the issuance of government bonds; and boosted its foreign currency reserves by 275 billion kroner, or $43.9 billion. "

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-game-of-krones-inside-denmarks-battle-to-defend-its-35-year-old-currency-peg-2017-12-08

Krone is pegged to the euro.

Anyway if we're going to join Europe we must adopt the Euro.

 

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10 minutes ago, phart said:

That came about from a specific action, i.e. when in January 15th 2015 Swiss National Bank revealed out of the blue that it would no longer peg the Swiss franc to the euro.

"Over the course of those three weeks, Danmarks Nationalbank cut its deposit rate four times ‚ÄĒ a highly unusual move ‚ÄĒ to end at negative 0.75%; temporarily suspended the issuance of government bonds; and boosted its foreign currency reserves by 275 billion kroner, or $43.9 billion. "

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-game-of-krones-inside-denmarks-battle-to-defend-its-35-year-old-currency-peg-2017-12-08

Krone is pegged to the euro.

Anyway if we're going to join Europe we must adopt the Euro.

 

Not according to this we dont. 

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/uk-47523168

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24 minutes ago, phart said:

 

Anyway if we're going to join Europe we must adopt the Euro.

 

That's no quite true though is it? We need to say that we intend to use the Euro at some point in the future. And, at present, there is no rule in place to stop us putting that off indefinitely.

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