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1 hour ago, antidote said:

We’re talking about ‘staunch’ died in the wool no voters who’ll never change their minds. 

Yes indeed. I'll look around as there was a survey on last indyref and it had figures of people who always knew how they were going to vote etc. Remember as well if you tally up votes for SNP and votes for unionist parties in Scotland I'd hazard a guess combined they have a higher vote share than the independence backing SNP.

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My view is that the YES side is now 55% ,  however polls are showing 46% as a lot of the YES/Leave guys are still saying NO 

 

When it comes to the crunch how many Leave/Yes guys will vote NO.....  I think a high percentage will vote YES.. 

Once you know something  (ie the way Westminster lie to the majority of people in the UK to keep the rich in power,)

once you know this you cant un know it... and you cant really support it....

 

When it comes to the crunch these guys will vote YES, 

We need to have an Indy ref and then say we will have an EU ref,( probably need to do that anyhoo as we will be oot.  )    unless EU say you can re join in a year if u vote YES, not sure they will do that,...,...

hardcore no sits around 35%  but is declining as the OLD die off...

 

 

this is only my Opinion ....

 

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1 minute ago, stocky said:

My view is that the YES side is now 55% ,  however polls are showing 46% as a lot of the YES/Leave guys are still saying NO 

 

When it comes to the crunch how many Leave/Yes guys will vote NO.....  I think a high percentage will vote YES.. 

Once you know something  (ie the way Westminster lie to the majority of people in the UK to keep the rich in power,)

once you know this you cant un know it... and you cant really support it....

 

When it comes to the crunch these guys will vote YES, 

We need to have an Indy ref and then say we will have an EU ref,( probably need to do that anyhoo as we will be oot.  )    unless EU say you can re join in a year if u vote YES, not sure they will do that,...,...

hardcore no sits around 35%  but is declining as the OLD die off...

 

 

this is only my Opinion ....

 

I have to disagree with the figures here for several reasons.

Look at all of the opinion polls (regardless of bias) and all put No at around 45% to 50% on better ones (not counting unsures). Yes weighs in consistently at around 40% to 45% on the better ones.

Okay you can say polls are not everything but when they all show the same pattern they aren't all wrong - there has to be some substance to them.

Also look at general election results. Sure the SNP backing independence is in power but the unionist backing parties have a bigger vote share around 54% with SNP at around 40%. Falls in line with those polls again. Sure not all Labour voters for example are anti-independence but their vote share is dwindling also.

Also there were polls done post-2014 and they showed the amount of people who knew they'd vote No all along was something around mid 40%s AGAIN. Too much coincedences across the board there.

 

I do agree with you stocky that the die-hard unionists will only fall from here on in so I don't see the independence fight going anywhere even if a second indyref was lost. When you have around 1.5 million backing independence in a population of just over 5 million that voice is not going to be silenced.

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1 hour ago, aaid said:

This was in the IndyRef documentary last week.

At the start of the referendum campaign, Better Together did a whole load of analysis and came up with the following numbers.

Will definitely vote Yes - 29%
Will definitely vote No - 37%
In Play - 34%.

What that tells you is not to waste any time on people who will definitely vote for you, similarly don't waste your time on those that won't and focus on the 34% that you have to convince and for that group, they found that - in the main - the way you could categorise them was "my heart says Yes but my head says No", which is why they ran the sort of campaign they did focusing on the risks and the downsides of Indy and self-evidently that worked..

Polling on a binary question - especially one that has previously been asked - doesn't really tell the full story, so while the vast majority all the polls since the referendum reflect the actual result - within the margin of error - the key point is how big is the "In Play" segment now.   Someone who voted Yes in 2014 might still be minded to vote Yes "if there was a referendum tomorrow" but that doesn't necessarily mean they are committed to doing that and could be convinced either way based on the arguments in any campaign.

I'm not sure those numbers will have shifted much.    My gut feel is that the "Definitely Yes" group will have gone up a bit, due to people who were don't knows at the start of the campaign becoming committed Yes voters by the end.   The No group will have gone down a bit - if anything due to the passage of time - but not by as much.

It's anyone's guess what they sit at now, but if you said it was 35% Yes. 35% No and 30% In Play then you probably wouldn't be far from reality.

I suspect that some - but not necessarily all - of the Don't knows who voted Yes now fall into the "Will Definitely Vote Yes".   Just through demographics, there will be a drop off in the "Will definitely vote No" group as that group was heavily populated by older people.   

On the top level numbers Brexit hasn't had an impact but we know that under the covers, the amount switching from No to Yes has been cancelled out by people going the other way.   If and when push comes to shove and there has to be a decision between Indy Scotland but being in the EU but out of the UK how they actually vote remains to be seen.

That said, given everything that has gone on in the last five years and all the polling evidence there's been, it is hard to see that the No vote would increase but you could see how the Yes vote would do, whether that's enough to get over the line is another thing but it only takes 200,000 people who voted No in 2014 to vote Yes to reverse the result.

I agree with much of this.  I think there could be other groups though:  The battle weary Yes.  and The politics weary floating voter.

I don't sense the Yes vote (outside activists) are as up for campaigning as previously which may have an affect.  The last referendum was so positive which brought many in and I don't see it being like that the next time.  I also think many floating voters are tired of politics and not as up for political debate.

The thing is though, independence will probably happen when the "battle weary" don't feel like they need to shout and bawl about it.  They'll just go out and quietly vote yes.  

I also think the in-play percentage is a fair bit less than 30%.  

 

 

 

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5 minutes ago, PapofGlencoe said:

I agree with much of this.  I think there could be other groups though:  The battle weary Yes.  and The politics weary floating voter.

I don't sense the Yes vote (outside activists) are as up for campaigning as previously which may have an affect.  The last referendum was so positive which brought many in and I don't see it being like that the next time.  I also think many floating voters are tired of politics and not as up for political debate.

The thing is though, independence will probably happen when the "battle weary" don't feel like they need to shout and bawl about it.  They'll just go out and quietly vote yes.  

I also think the in-play percentage is a fair bit less than 30%.  

 

 

 

I think it is swings and roundabouts though on the campaigning front. Whereas you may have battle weary souls from last time up for the fight but they will likely be readily replaced by people who perhaps were waiverers last time and bought into Bitter Together's threats and promises and feel angry and let down so are now passionate Yes voters. Or perhaps young Yes voters who were too young to vote last time.

I'll still stick with that figure of 25% who have yet to decide that need won over.

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My tuppenth worth on the 5 years since the last ref is that the SNP are too strong in Scotland and require an alternative party whom would champion Independence but not as their main priority.

personally I have not supported all SNP changes regarding suger taxes, multi buys, min pricing alcohol, drink driving levels, immigration,  possible fat tax etc not forgetting the income tax changes. 

These points will be rammed down the SNP throats not forgetting any individuals Twitter  views.

If we had 2 parties at each other's throats but with the same overal agenda we could persuade the fence sitters to ultimately vote yes. Folks would also see there is a separate choice for Holyrood after the victory.

SNP would ultimately benefit but not with Sturgeon at the helm.

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47 minutes ago, The White Ceelo said:

My tuppenth worth on the 5 years since the last ref is that the SNP are too strong in Scotland and require an alternative party whom would champion Independence but not as their main priority.

personally I have not supported all SNP changes regarding suger taxes, multi buys, min pricing alcohol, drink driving levels, immigration,  possible fat tax etc not forgetting the income tax changes. 

These points will be rammed down the SNP throats not forgetting any individuals Twitter  views.

If we had 2 parties at each other's throats but with the same overal agenda we could persuade the fence sitters to ultimately vote yes. Folks would also see there is a separate choice for Holyrood after the victory.

SNP would ultimately benefit but not with Sturgeon at the helm.

Not a lot to disagree with there. Apart from independence there’s not a lot to like about the SNP. 

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2 hours ago, The White Ceelo said:

My tuppenth worth on the 5 years since the last ref is that the SNP are too strong in Scotland and require an alternative party whom would champion Independence but not as their main priority.

personally I have not supported all SNP changes regarding suger taxes, multi buys, min pricing alcohol, drink driving levels, immigration,  possible fat tax etc not forgetting the income tax changes. 

These points will be rammed down the SNP throats not forgetting any individuals Twitter  views.

If we had 2 parties at each other's throats but with the same overal agenda we could persuade the fence sitters to ultimately vote yes. Folks would also see there is a separate choice for Holyrood after the victory.

SNP would ultimately benefit but not with Sturgeon at the helm.

Yep.

1 hour ago, ParisInAKilt said:

Not a lot to disagree with there. Apart from independence there’s not a lot to like about the SNP. 

The thing is the SNP will likely be in power in an independent Scotland (given a YES vote at some point) for at least 5 years min but 10+ years more likely. The SNP would eventually splinter but they would be midwifing independence and we would be reliant on them not to make a cunt of it during the crucial early stages and make the whole country suffer a massive dose of buyers regret. Look at these utterly arseholish policies. David Brent material. 

I just cant trust them to the be the sole vehicle for independence. They have turned into real dicks trying to constantly virtue signal how saintly they are. They would make such a fuckup of it.

Edited by thplinth
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Voted yes and took leave from working abroad to come back to do so  

Since then I'm dismayed by the SNP especially my local MSP and Cllr. Reneged on promises to help my estate and local community, lied to residents and actually managed to route a bus through our street (cllr is on GCC transport committee) and has since had to apologise - bus rerouted last Monday. 

Sturgeon is less the women she was back then - running the referendum campaign I believe she would have taken us through.  Now she's all mouth and fuck all action. 

I'm inclined to still vote yes but it's all heart and little head.  Don't see us getting any better under a UK government and can only imagine how the SNP would be. Likely end up in many fractious parties and have a number of splinters and ergo a whole new political party or 11. 

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24 minutes ago, Debian said:

Voted yes and took leave from working abroad to come back to do so  

Since then I'm dismayed by the SNP especially my local MSP and Cllr. Reneged on promises to help my estate and local community, lied to residents and actually managed to route a bus through our street (cllr is on GCC transport committee) and has since had to apologise - bus rerouted last Monday. 

Sturgeon is less the women she was back then - running the referendum campaign I believe she would have taken us through.  Now she's all mouth and fuck all action. 

I'm inclined to still vote yes but it's all heart and little head.  Don't see us getting any better under a UK government and can only imagine how the SNP would be. Likely end up in many fractious parties and have a number of splinters and ergo a whole new political party or 11. 

That is almost bang on from people I've spoke to within the last few years.

I know  of 10 people who voted SNP in 2015 and didn't vote in 2017.

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If I’m being honest with myself I hate the EU more than I love the idea of being independent within it. I live abroad so it doesn’t affect me as much anymore but culturally and politically I’d rather we stayed part of the UK rather than leave and join the EU. Probably one for then unpopular opinions thread that. 

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1 hour ago, ParisInAKilt said:

Not a lot to disagree with there. Apart from independence there’s not a lot to like about the SNP. 

But more to like than any other party IMHO

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5 minutes ago, ParisInAKilt said:

If I’m being honest with myself I hate the EU more than I love the idea of being independent within it. I live abroad so it doesn’t affect me as much anymore but culturally and politically I’d rather we stayed part of the UK rather than leave and join the EU. Probably one for then unpopular opinions thread that. 

For me it will always be independence first, hopefully we can have the EFTA type relationship with the EU post indy, until then i connot imagine myself ever voting anything other than a pro-indy party and i hate the greens. My hatred of weatminster runs far deeper than that of brussels  

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11 minutes ago, ParisInAKilt said:

If I’m being honest with myself I hate the EU more than I love the idea of being independent within it. I live abroad so it doesn’t affect me as much anymore but culturally and politically I’d rather we stayed part of the UK rather than leave and join the EU. Probably one for then unpopular opinions thread that. 

PIAK, I'm one of the folk who just don't get that, so would like to hear why you feel that way.   Why are you attracted to the UK above Europe?

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I see the Telegraph running another story about Sturgeon facing SNP grassroots rebellion. They love all this division in the indy ranks 

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33 minutes ago, ParisInAKilt said:

If I’m being honest with myself I hate the EU more than I love the idea of being independent within it. I live abroad so it doesn’t affect me as much anymore but culturally and politically I’d rather we stayed part of the UK rather than leave and join the EU. Probably one for then unpopular opinions thread that. 

Are you kidding? Whilst the EU isn't perfect, we have programs like Erasmus/EVS. Go study abroad if you've got the ''brains'' if not/then go at do community/voluntary work in another EU plus (Georgia, Turkey, Russia etc) state and get paid for doing  it - a basic wage/food).

That alone is worth staying the EU.

sa

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4 minutes ago, exile said:

I see the Telegraph running another story about Sturgeon facing SNP grassroots rebellion. They love all this division in the indy ranks 

TBH, if the majority of Scots are too thick to believe this shite plus the polluted brains of English retirees then well we don't deserve independence.

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3 hours ago, The White Ceelo said:

personally I have not supported all SNP changes regarding suger taxes, immigration

I think those are reserved to Westminster???

 

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58 minutes ago, Grim Jim said:

PIAK, I'm one of the folk who just don't get that, so would like to hear why you feel that way.   Why are you attracted to the UK above Europe?

 

37 minutes ago, weekevie04 said:

Are you kidding? Whilst the EU isn't perfect, we have programs like Erasmus/EVS. Go study abroad if you've got the ''brains'' if not/then go at do community/voluntary work in another EU plus (Georgia, Turkey, Russia etc) state and get paid for doing  it - a basic wage/food).

That alone is worth staying the EU.

sa

The EU is pure globalism, giving up national sovereignty to a large, soviet style state, don’t get me wrong I’m no fan of Westminster style politics but it’s probably better than the alternative, don’t worry though no politicians will deliver on Brexit and Scotland might get to vote again in a few years. 

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6 hours ago, Toepoke said:

I think those are reserved to Westminster???

 

Yes along with sugar taxes which is mentioned, he may be referring to their stance on the subjects

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8 hours ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

For me it will always be independence first, hopefully we can have the EFTA type relationship with the EU post indy, until then i connot imagine myself ever voting anything other than a pro-indy party and i hate the greens. My hatred of weatminster runs far deeper than that of brussels  

This for me, snp are nothing more than a means to an end.

to be honest, the minimum pricing of alcohol or drink driving limits aren’t that bad. Why do people feels so strongly about that or immigration for that matter. What is it people hate the snp stance on these subjects?

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41 minutes ago, vanderark14 said:

This for me, snp are nothing more than a means to an end.

to be honest, the minimum pricing of alcohol or drink driving limits aren’t that bad. Why do people feels so strongly about that or immigration for that matter. What is it people hate the snp stance on these subjects?

I agree. I dont think the sugar tax is bad either , even if it was a Westminster policy. My daughter drank far too much Lucozade and after the sugar tax rise they reduced the sugar. She hated it and stopped drinking it.  There must be more examples of that. She now drinks more water. Anything that reduces the amount of sugar people take has to be positive for health.   

And I really cant see the problem with lowering the drink driving limit either. 

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