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Sounds like he’s been programmed by the daily heil to hate the SNP. 

I’m  sure you’ll have him on your radar tyder and you’ll slowly reprogram him 👍🏻

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I wouldn't want to give too much credit to a particular newspaper. But your story reminds me of an incident, around the time of the referendum I think, of meeting someone I vaguely knew, an EU citizen who lived in England, who as far as I know liked Scotland and was happy to talk about Scotland as a place, and but when the topic of Scottish independence came up, was totally dismissive of it and sort of frowned at the thought of Salmond and/or SNP in charge (I can't remember which, probably both). I was curious as to why an EU (non UK) citizen should have such a definitely strong view on the matter, an issue he had no particular stake in, and asked him how he was managing to follow the intricacies of the debate from England or maybe even asked him what papers he read and he said the Daily Mail (or was it Express) and then suddenly realised where I was going, and said, but of course I form my own opinions on these matters. It was tragically comic (or comically tragic) as he would probably have supported the independence of any other small nation. 

To go back to an earlier point, about the rise of support during a campaign, I can't help thinking the grassroots campaign had so much to do with that, people especially the politically unaligned saw that indy supporters were ordinary reasonable people around them in their own streets, not political zealots.  What had started as an 'unpopular opinion' turned out to be less unpopular than had been thought. Something similar must have happened with Brexit, but with key difference of having the likes of the Mail and Express also on their side. Etc etc.

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I know people keep talking about how much the polls went up last time once the campaign got going, but two things to bear in mind:

1. The campaign leading up to 2014 was around two years, which allowed momentum to build, and 'slow turners' time to consider the evidence, and unsurprisingly some of them became Yessers. The next campaign is likely to be much shorter, with a correspondingly reduced capacity for the momentum to build.

2. The potential Yes vote is not infinite. We got up to 45% from twenty-something % last time.  Having got up to nearly 50% now (if not over), the likely ceiling is low 60s for now. I'd take that, and it would be enough. Almost every Tory, and a significant proportion of Labour people, have a real antipathy to independence, mostly, I think, because they hate the SNP.

30 years from now, when Indy is established, those who opposed it will be downplaying their opposition, and it will become normal to assume it was always going to happen. 

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Listening to a tory supporter today, outside spoons having a smoke, all I hear is daily mail headlines from him  

‘The stabbings we’ve got we should put the youngsters in national service.’ 

when I point out to him that all the stabbings are in a different country, particularly London, he’s off. 

😂😂😂

I’m not laughing about the horrendous lose of life here. 

Edited by antidote

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5 hours ago, exile said:

It's an interesting insight. What little I know of reading the Daily Mail, it often twists stories to make the SNP look bad. I know this too is hardly a revelation, and doesn't explain why your colleague also dislikes the Tories.   But I mean for example, if May goes to Brussels, even if struggling, she is always portrayed as battling for Britain (which anyone even including Tories could identify with) whereas if Sturgeon goes to Brussels, she is always slapped down, an embarrassment, etc., or else pursuing narrow party gain, but never battling for Scotland's interests. It would not be surprising if people constantly reading that kind of story - especially apolitical people - could end up with the perception that May (although a Tory you wouldn't vote for) was at least standing up for her country, while the SNP leader was an ineffective also-ran. 

Absolutely.

I am probably not the best person to provide a neutral assessment of the Daily Mail as i hate it with an unhealthy passion. Todays headline for example is a scathing attack at the SNP for giving in to the teachers demand for a pay rise. The same paper that constantly critises the SNP for failing teaching standards . They are beyond belief. 

IMO my colleague was probably  a traditional labour supporter who has done fairly well for himself, he is in his late 50’s. He will never forgive the Tories for what they did to Scotland but he is probably now more aligned to their politics than he would like to admit. He is a very fair and likeable person, but without doubt the Daily Mail is forming his opinions.  

Some DM readers enjoy it simply for the sport and gossip , there is no harm in that and it doesnt make them right wing loonies. But it is does have a dangerous objective, particularly,  as you say, influencing apolitical people. 

 

 

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5 hours ago, antidote said:

Sounds like he’s been programmed by the daily heil to hate the SNP. 

I’m  sure you’ll have him on your radar tyder and you’ll slowly reprogram him 👍🏻

👍

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8 hours ago, antidote said:

Listening to a tory supporter today, outside spoons having a smoke, all I hear is daily mail headlines from him  

‘The stabbings we’ve got we should put the youngsters in national service.’ 

when I point out to him that all the stabbings are in a different country, particularly London, he’s off. 

😂😂😂

I’m not laughing about the horrendous lose of life here. 

People who want the re-introduction of national service (and corporal punishment in schools) should be smothered in their sleep.

  • Haha 1

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16 hours ago, Padre Andrew said:

I know people keep talking about how much the polls went up last time once the campaign got going, but two things to bear in mind:

1. The campaign leading up to 2014 was around two years, which allowed momentum to build, and 'slow turners' time to consider the evidence, and unsurprisingly some of them became Yessers. The next campaign is likely to be much shorter, with a correspondingly reduced capacity for the momentum to build.

2. The potential Yes vote is not infinite. We got up to 45% from twenty-something % last time.  Having got up to nearly 50% now (if not over), the likely ceiling is low 60s for now. I'd take that, and it would be enough. Almost every Tory, and a significant proportion of Labour people, have a real antipathy to independence, mostly, I think, because they hate the SNP.

30 years from now, when Indy is established, those who opposed it will be downplaying their opposition, and it will become normal to assume it was always going to happen. 

We can pretty accurately ascertain that about 75% of the population have already decided how they will vote. Around 40% will vote No and are die-hard unionists and about 35% will support independence come what may. That leaves about 25% of waiverers to convince to vote Yes. To get us over the line we'd need anything over 15 over that 25% to vote Yes to get us over the line. 

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If Brexit is delayed or doesnt happen ..then I have the feeling Farage will set up a new version of UKIP but English only. Can quite easily see the xenophobic English going for their own independence.

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6 minutes ago, Caledonian Craig said:

We can pretty accurately ascertain that about 75% of the population have already decided how they will vote. Around 40% will vote No and are die-hard unionists and about 35% will support independence come what may. That leaves about 25% of waiverers to convince to vote Yes. To get us over the line we'd need anything over 15 over that 25% to vote Yes to get us over the line. 

Don't forget the 15% who didn't vote last time round. That's quite a lot of votes if you can get some of them to be bothered about it.

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6 minutes ago, Orraloon said:

Don't forget the 15% who didn't vote last time round. That's quite a lot of votes if you can get some of them to be bothered about it.

That 25% of unknowns is of the remainder of the electorate. Whatever portion of that choose to vote then Yes must take around 66% of that number. 

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3 minutes ago, Caledonian Craig said:

That 25% of unknowns is of the remainder of the electorate. Whatever portion of that choose to vote then Yes must take around 66% of that number. 

Ah right, I thought your numbers were based on the folk who actually vote. So what you are saying is that there are only 10% "waiverers" and 15 % can't be bothered.

 

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19 minutes ago, irnbruman said:

If Brexit is delayed or doesnt happen ..then I have the feeling Farage will set up a new version of UKIP but English only. Can quite easily see the xenophobic English going for their own independence.

You’re probably correct in your prediction, the only thing I would slightly disagree with is the English only part as most moronic ukip supporters already think that the UK is actually England.

Let’s hope he does start an England for Independence Party. 

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36 minutes ago, Orraloon said:

Don't forget the 15% who didn't vote last time round. That's quite a lot of votes if you can get some of them to be bothered about it.

Or, if fewer to bother to vote against. It's quite possible that some ex no voters could become either resigned to the tide of history and while still preferring the union, just not bother to vote against. 

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14 hours ago, Orraloon said:

Ah right, I thought your numbers were based on the folk who actually vote. So what you are saying is that there are only 10% "waiverers" and 15 % can't be bothered.

 

Well we do not actually know how many will be bothered to vote. Last time around the turnout was over 86% - which set records for the highest in any election or referendum across Britain in its history. However many choose to vote (at the moment) I think we can put the die-hard who will vote No regardless will take 40% whilst the staunch Yes voters will command 35% of it. The remaining 25% (however many that is) I would say are waiverers so open to persuasion to either side. Some may be the gullible and err on the side of caution petrified of what is beyond the union like was the case last time. Others may feel its a case of once but ten twice shy and take the plunge for Yes feeling they were conned with false promises etc. In any case whatever the amount of those undecided then Yes has to win more of them than No. 

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6 hours ago, Caledonian Craig said:

Well we do not actually know how many will be bothered to vote. Last time around the turnout was over 86% - which set records for the highest in any election or referendum across Britain in its history. However many choose to vote (at the moment) I think we can put the die-hard who will vote No regardless will take 40% whilst the staunch Yes voters will command 35% of it. The remaining 25% (however many that is) I would say are waiverers so open to persuasion to either side. Some may be the gullible and err on the side of caution petrified of what is beyond the union like was the case last time. Others may feel its a case of once but ten twice shy and take the plunge for Yes feeling they were conned with false promises etc. In any case whatever the amount of those undecided then Yes has to win more of them than No. 

I would have staunch no at far less, possibly even as low as 25-30%. Folk are more fickle than you think. I do thing staunch yes would be at the 35% though

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13 minutes ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

I would have staunch no at far less, possibly even as low as 25-30%. Folk are more fickle than you think. I do thing staunch yes would be at the 35% though

My feelings too. 

I remember polls showing around 25% for staunch no voters back in 2013.

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1 hour ago, Caledonian Craig said:

I think we need to be realistic. No achieved 55. 4% last time and since then all polls held have had No at a minimum of 44 to 45%.

We’re talking about ‘staunch’ died in the wool no voters who’ll never change their minds. 

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On 3/9/2019 at 12:41 PM, exile said:

To go back to an earlier point, about the rise of support during a campaign, I can't help thinking the grassroots campaign had so much to do with that, people especially the politically unaligned saw that indy supporters were ordinary reasonable people around them in their own streets, not political zealots.  What had started as an 'unpopular opinion' turned out to be less unpopular than had been thought. Something similar must have happened with Brexit, but with key difference of having the likes of the Mail and Express also on their side. Etc etc.

This is what brought a lot of people over...the normalisation.  Better Together were bricking it as well when the posters started going up in "normal areas".  They may have said otherwise in the press but the noisiness helped a lot and probably swung Glasgow.

 

also it is part of the Yes story now to talk about coming from mid20% to 45%.  It may be the case that some polls showed 28% but nobody in Yes Scotland actually believed that was the accurate figure.  They were often polling loaded wording.  When Yes polled their own loaded wording they were getting much higher figures.  The yes campaign definitely brought more over to its side than the other but I think this is a little bit of revisionism going on there.

Edited by PapofGlencoe

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Don’t forget that social media played its part in debunking bt scaremongering. 

Newspapers couldn’t compete with raw uncensored and uncensored articles. 

I also believe leafleting and the YES quarterly newspapers played their significant part. 

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14 minutes ago, antidote said:

Don’t forget that social media played its part in debunking bt scaremongering. 

Newspapers couldn’t compete with raw uncensored and uncensored articles. 

I also believe leafleting and the YES quarterly newspapers played their significant part. 

“Raw uncensored and unspun articles”

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This was in the IndyRef documentary last week.

At the start of the referendum campaign, Better Together did a whole load of analysis and came up with the following numbers.

Will definitely vote Yes - 29%
Will definitely vote No - 37%
In Play - 34%.

What that tells you is not to waste any time on people who will definitely vote for you, similarly don't waste your time on those that won't and focus on the 34% that you have to convince and for that group, they found that - in the main - the way you could categorise them was "my heart says Yes but my head says No", which is why they ran the sort of campaign they did focusing on the risks and the downsides of Indy and self-evidently that worked..

Polling on a binary question - especially one that has previously been asked - doesn't really tell the full story, so while the vast majority all the polls since the referendum reflect the actual result - within the margin of error - the key point is how big is the "In Play" segment now.   Someone who voted Yes in 2014 might still be minded to vote Yes "if there was a referendum tomorrow" but that doesn't necessarily mean they are committed to doing that and could be convinced either way based on the arguments in any campaign.

I'm not sure those numbers will have shifted much.    My gut feel is that the "Definitely Yes" group will have gone up a bit, due to people who were don't knows at the start of the campaign becoming committed Yes voters by the end.   The No group will have gone down a bit - if anything due to the passage of time - but not by as much.

It's anyone's guess what they sit at now, but if you said it was 35% Yes. 35% No and 30% In Play then you probably wouldn't be far from reality.

I suspect that some - but not necessarily all - of the Don't knows who voted Yes now fall into the "Will Definitely Vote Yes".   Just through demographics, there will be a drop off in the "Will definitely vote No" group as that group was heavily populated by older people.   

On the top level numbers Brexit hasn't had an impact but we know that under the covers, the amount switching from No to Yes has been cancelled out by people going the other way.   If and when push comes to shove and there has to be a decision between Indy Scotland but being in the EU but out of the UK how they actually vote remains to be seen.

That said, given everything that has gone on in the last five years and all the polling evidence there's been, it is hard to see that the No vote would increase but you could see how the Yes vote would do, whether that's enough to get over the line is another thing but it only takes 200,000 people who voted No in 2014 to vote Yes to reverse the result.

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