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9 hours ago, Och Aye said:

So in an amazing climb down the SNP appear to have moved Indy Ref 2 from after the Brexit negotiations to a bit further after the Brexit negotiations. 

^^^^

Scottish as the queen of England's tits response.

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How any party should demand a second referendum is taken off the table is beyond me. It is at the core of the SNP in terms of how they see Scotland in the future. Labour and Tory leaders in Scotland are coming across as hysterical in their demands for more clarity and in my view are more interested in destroying Sturgeon's credibility.

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18 minutes ago, EddardStark said:

How any party should demand a second referendum is taken off the table is beyond me. It is at the core of the SNP in terms of how they see Scotland in the future. Labour and Tory leaders in Scotland are coming across as hysterical in their demands for more clarity and in my view are more interested in destroying Sturgeon's credibility.

They (especially the Tories) have seen it's a vote winner so they'll continue to push the same line.

 

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maybe it's just too soon after the election but I don't see any way independence can be won within the next 10-20 years. There's no appetite for it, the unionists and their media pals have done a fine job.

 

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12 minutes ago, vanderark14 said:

maybe it's just too soon after the election but I don't see any way independence can be won within the next 10-20 years. There's no appetite for it, the unionists and their media pals have done a fine job.

 

I'm the same, ship has sailed for the foreseeable IMO.

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19 minutes ago, vanderark14 said:

maybe it's just too soon after the election but I don't see any way independence can be won within the next 10-20 years. There's no appetite for it, the unionists and their media pals have done a fine job.

 

 

6 minutes ago, Squirrelhumper said:

I'm the same, ship has sailed for the foreseeable IMO.

Stop buying into it then lads :lol:

Independence really was dead for a generation after 2014

Brexit is the game changer for everything

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Just now, Ally Bongo said:

 

Stop buying into it then lads :lol:

Independence really was dead for a generation after 2014

Brexit is the game changer for everything

Nothing to do with buying into it, I don't think  Scotland has enough folk with the balls to vote for it. Regardless of Brexit.

I hope I'm wrong.

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7 minutes ago, Squirrelhumper said:

Nothing to do with buying into it, I don't think  Scotland has enough folk with the balls to vote for it. Regardless of Brexit.

I hope I'm wrong.

Agreed, I haven't bought anything. 

Scotland proves time and time again it prefers being ruled by parties who couldn't care less for Scotland. Independence was right there, it wasn't ours for the taking, we shat it. 

Brexit will make no difference at all, if people are stupid enough to believe the site spouted by the tories and the NO campaign, they will be stupid enough to believe that the inevitable Brexit deal is good for us.

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6 minutes ago, vanderark14 said:

Agreed, I haven't bought anything. 

Scotland proves time and time again it prefers being ruled by parties who couldn't care less for Scotland. Independence was right there, it wasn't ours for the taking, we shat it. 

Brexit will make no difference at all, if people are stupid enough to believe the site spouted by the tories and the NO campaign, they will be stupid enough to believe that the inevitable Brexit deal is good for us.

With you both. 

 

Don't think there is an appetite, won't be until a few cold winters, brexit hits ( will be 10+ yr Imo) and the SNP looses and comes back after people see what They've lost out on. 

Not holding my breath. 

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5 minutes ago, Ally Bongo said:

 

Stop buying into it then lads :lol:

Independence really was dead for a generation after 2014

Brexit is the game changer for everything

I don't think it is.

Brexit is the reason ( or excuse depending on how you look at it) for having another referendum so soon. But I don't think Brexit will have much impact on the result of a 2nd Independence referendum. I think that the number of YES/ Leavers who change their minds to NO will be almost exactly balanced out by the number of NO/remainers who change to YES. But in reality there wont be that many of either. 

The only game changer is demographics. Younger folk are much more likely to be bold enough to want to take control of their own future, whilst older folk are much more likely to be scared off by the media. 

5 years is about the right amount of time for the 200,000 swing required. In 2019 it will still be very close. 10 years would be better but there may not be a majority at Holyrood to allow us to have one by then.  

It's all about timing.

 

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13 minutes ago, Ally Bongo said:

 

Stop buying into it then lads :lol:

Independence really was dead for a generation after 2014

Brexit is the game changer for everything

 

Don't agree.

After 2014 I experienced some pretty weird emotions, but I became more confident than ever that independence would arrive sooner than later - all of the momentum was with us, hence the spectacular 2015 GE result.

That momentum has now been lost and possibly reversed.

Re. Brexit, it's nowhere near being a game changer. In Scotland, the Brexit referendum was comparatively low key. I voted to remain, but had become pretty disillusioned with the EU, so wasn't too fussed - I did however hope (wrongly) that the result would boost the appetite for independence.

Within 3-4 years, Brexit will be normalised.

 

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13 minutes ago, min said:

 

 

Within 3-4 years, Brexit will be normalised.

 

Disagree profusely

It has the potential to cause mass unemployment, inflation, price rises , discontent and unrest on a scale we have not seen since the 70s

 

Edited by Ally Bongo

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15 minutes ago, flumax said:

Don't think there is an appetite, won't be until a few cold winters, brexit hits ( will be 10+ yr Imo) and the SNP looses and comes back after people see what They've lost out on. 

Not holding my breath. 

Compared to the first lost referendum on devolution we are currently sitting in 1982, and the full effects of 18 years of Tory rule have yet to hit home. It would take a decade or so for the momentum and support for change to increase significantly. 

 

13 minutes ago, Orraloon said:

The only game changer is demographics. Younger folk are much more likely to be bold enough to want to take control of their own future, whilst older folk are much more likely to be scared off by the media. 

But then the elderly population is increasing all the time.

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3 minutes ago, Ally Bongo said:

Disagree profusely

It has the potential to cause mass unemployment, inflation, price rises , discontent and unrest on a scale we have not seen since the 70s

 

I think you are getting a wee bit carried away here. I think most folk will hardly notice it's happened.

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7 minutes ago, Ally Bongo said:

Disagree profusely

It has the potential to cause mass unemployment, inflation, price rises , discontent and unrest on a scale we have not seen since the 70s

 

 

It also has the potential to cause hardly any difference to peoples lives at all and if what you say turns out to be true, it will be perceived by many - including in Scotland - as being the fault of the EU, making it less likely that people will want to re-join.

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3 minutes ago, Toepoke said:

Compared to the first lost referendum on devolution we are currently sitting in 1982, and the full effects of 18 years of Tory rule have yet to hit home. It would take a decade or so for the momentum and support for change to increase significantly. 

 

But then the elderly population is increasing all the time.

I don't think many folk change their minds as they get older. It's not like religion. A lot of folk "discover" religion as they get closer to death. It's more like supporting a football team. At some point in your life you pick a side and you tend to stick with that side until you die.

 

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12 minutes ago, Toepoke said:

Compared to the first lost referendum on devolution we are currently sitting in 1982, and the full effects of 18 years of Tory rule have yet to hit home. It would take a decade or so for the momentum and support for change to increase significantly. 

 

But then the elderly population is increasing all the time.

I get where you're coming from with comparing the two devolution referendums but I think there's a key difference now.   I'd say that it was probably around the late 1980s that devolution came back onto the political agenda as a serious option - the Constitutional Convention was formed in 1989.  However, there wasn't another referendum until 1997 at which point the result - of the first question at least - was never in any real doubt.   It took until 1997 of course because the only competent authority that could hold the referendum was the UK government, who up until 1997 were a Tory administration fundamentally opposed to it.

The difference of course now is that as a result of 1997 we now have a Scottish Parliament and while the constitution remains reserved , I don't think anyone really thinks that if support for independence was in the 60s there wouldn't be another referendum, if necessary, the SG could hold an advisory one.  That wouldn't be their first choice but they could do it.

As with everything, it all depends on where public opinion goes and at present support on both sides of the argument seems pretty fixed and doesn't seem to be moving either way.   

The reality is that it will be public opinion that will drive whether or not there is another referendum and - over the next couple of years - unless something major and unforeseen happens, it will be Brexit and how that plays out that will drive any change.  

You're spot on with your last point and most people don't appreciate that people - in general - become more risk averse as they get older.

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56 minutes ago, Ally Bongo said:

Disagree profusely

It has the potential to cause mass unemployment, inflation, price rises , discontent and unrest on a scale we have not seen since the 70s

 

:lol:

"fear mongering"? 

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In many ways the SNP are a victim of their own success. 

Having 40% + wanting independence is a really good base to build on, it's a mainstream alternative now and there's still to an extent an anti establishment desire in Scotland, which independence should be. 

Need to find a way to appeal to everyone but die in the wool unionists, staunchly backing the EU isn't the way to go about it I don't think. 

Edited by ParisInAKilt

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re : Brexit. 

If the Tories go for a sensible "soft" brexit deal them most most folk wont notice it.
We will end up like Norway - all the benefits of the EU without any influence.
In this scenario we are looking at Scottish independence being 10-20 years away,

If however the Tories go for the nuclear "hard" brexit option then it is a game changer.
This still looks like a probable outcome as the Tory party are being driven by some right wing lunatics.
Limiting migration and crashing out of the single market will have major impact on UK economy.
In addition our trade deals with Japan / USA / Australia etc are under auspices of EU.
In this scenario independence could be 3-5 years away. 

Remember than in 2014 independence was the preferred option for those aged under 55.
The unionists are running scared - we had them on the ropes and came very close.

Right now most people have been lulled into false sense of security about brexit : simply because nothing happened yet.
However it is starting to get interesting now - in 2 years time it will all be up in the air with everything to play for.
 

Edited by Haggis_trap

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4 minutes ago, ParisInAKilt said:

In my ways the SNP are a victim of their own success. 

Having 40% + wanting independence is a really good base to build on, it's a mainstream alternative now and there's still to an extent an anti establishment desire in Scotland, which independence should be. 

Need to find a way to appeal to everyone but die in the wool unionists, staunchly backing the EU isn't the way to go about it I don't think. 

I see where you are coming from but SNP have been boxed somewhat into a corner on the EU. By that I mean that Salmond made it clear it was a once in a generation opportunity and the answer was no. Now that put the idea of independence to bed indefinitely but then came the Brexit vote and this opened up the possibility again of independence. The SNP (way before the vote) made it clear it backed staying in Europe and all the polls and such-like felt that was the safe route and would be what was returned. Now when it came out that Scotland had voted to remain but the UK on the whole voted to exit this was the golden opportunity to re-open the independence debate up. Now the SNP couldn't exactly call for independence on any other grounds than they were being taken out of Europe against their wishes so they had to snuggle up to the EU and make it clear the EU was the place to stay. If the SNP had distanced themselves totally from staying in the EU any call for independence in the near or distant future would have been greatly weakened. I mean can you imagine the rhetoric of unionists - it would have heard them saying well they never went for independence over the Brexit issue so why do they want it now (be that in 2020,2025,2030 etc etc).

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Just now, Caledonian Craig said:

I see where you are coming from but SNP have been boxed somewhat into a corner on the EU. By that I mean that Salmond made it clear it was a once in a generation opportunity and the answer was no. Now that put the idea of independence to bed indefinitely but then came the Brexit vote and this opened up the possibility again of independence. The SNP (way before the vote) made it clear it backed staying in Europe and all the polls and such-like felt that was the safe route and would be what was returned. Now when it came out that Scotland had voted to remain but the UK on the whole voted to exit this was the golden opportunity to re-open the independence debate up. Now the SNP couldn't exactly call for independence on any other grounds than they were being taken out of Europe against their wishes so they had to snuggle up to the EU and make it clear the EU was the place to stay. If the SNP had distanced themselves totally from staying in the EU any call for independence in the near or distant future would have been greatly weakened. I mean can you imagine the rhetoric of unionists - it would have heard them saying well they never went for independence over the Brexit issue so why do they want it now (be that in 2020,2025,2030 etc etc).

The once in a generation line was a mistake but new leader etc and a mandate for another referendum, f**k the other parties. 

In terms of the EU they should say that as a party they support membership but will offer a referendum post independence if they are elected as the first party of Scotland. 

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5 minutes ago, Haggis_trap said:

re : Brexit. 

If the Tories go for a sensible "soft" brexit deal them most most folk wont notice it.
We will end up like Norway - all the benefits of the EU without any influence.
In this scenario we are looking at Scottish independence being 10-20 years away,

If however the Tories go for the nuclear "hard" brexit option then it is a game changer.
This still looks like a probable outcome as the Tory party are being driven by some right wing lunatics.
Limiting migration and crashing out of the single market will have major impact on UK economy.
In addition our trade deals with Japan / USA / Australia etc are under auspices of EU.
In this scenario independence could be 3-5 years away. 

Remember than in 2014 independence was the preferred option for those aged under 55.
The unionists are running scared - we had them on the ropes and came very close.

Right now most people have been lulled into false sense of security about brexit : simply because nothing happened yet.
However it is starting to get interesting now - in 2 years time it will all be up in the air with everything to play for.
 

Is "soft Brexit" an option? From a distance it seems like this is something the EU wouldn't want to offer. 

The Tory party is split and fractured but doubt it's changed much in terms of being a vehicle for big business and corporatatokns. 

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