aaid Posted June 25, 2016 Share Posted June 25, 2016 Since no-one's started the thread... A lot of former No voters including some pretty prominant activists, politicians and commentators either coming out for Yes or softening their position - even Chris Deerin saying today that he's not saying that he would vote Yes but that he couldn't say that he would vote No. It only needs 200,000 people to shift to change the result next time. One of the key "No" voting demographics were other EU nationals, I can't imagine that isn't going to shift big time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDange Posted June 25, 2016 Share Posted June 25, 2016 How much of that is a knee-jerk reaction though? Would they actually cross the YES box next time round? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jockodile Posted June 25, 2016 Share Posted June 25, 2016 Correct for Nicola to lay down a marker as feelings are running high, but lets keep powder dry and see what transpires. All I feel right now is anger at the outcome of the UK ref, not solace in the Scotland/London/NI results. We need to build Indyref2 to be not some leap into the dark that many feared last time, even some of those who still went for it, but a leap into the light. Slam dunk next time I reckon however, this does feel like a watershed moment. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TDYER63 Posted June 25, 2016 Share Posted June 25, 2016 I mentioned the Eu national vote on the main thread. I think this would provide a reasonable swing to 'yes' but have no idea how many eu voters there are or how the voting went last time. However these votes could be negated by previous yes voters who also supported leave. How many are there and how would they vote? I think it is a bit of a minefield. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jockodile Posted June 25, 2016 Share Posted June 25, 2016 doesn't need a snap poll tdyer63. issues to be fixed first - currency and deficit plan for a start. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scunnered Posted June 25, 2016 Share Posted June 25, 2016 11 minutes ago, TDYER63 said: However these votes could be negated by previous yes voters who also supported leave. How many are there and how would they vote? I think it is a bit of a minefield. If any Indyref is for an automatic application to the EU I'd vote No. If an Indyref is solely for independence with a decision to be taken on the EU later, I could vote Yes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toepoke Posted June 25, 2016 Share Posted June 25, 2016 There's currently a Call Kaye special on Radio Scotland on this very subject. Quite a few No voters from 2014 calling in saying they'll vote Yes next time, on the other hand there's been a number of Yes voters who will vote No next time... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDange Posted June 25, 2016 Share Posted June 25, 2016 Scottish independence Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scunnered Posted June 25, 2016 Share Posted June 25, 2016 I suspect any indyref would be based on the second scenario I painted above given 1/3 of SNP voters apparently voted Leave. An Independent Scotland outwith the EU could be a very attractive thing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aaid Posted June 25, 2016 Author Share Posted June 25, 2016 3 minutes ago, Scunnered said: I suspect any indyref would be based on the second scenario I painted above given 1/3 of SNP voters apparently voted Leave. An Independent Scotland outwith the EU could be a very attractive thing. The demographics of this are interesting, we know though that not all SNP voters voted Yes though. I don't necessarily believe that automatically YES=SNP=REMAIN It'll be interesting to see how the polls start to look over the next few months. Alex Massie makes a very good point that practicalities of an independent Scotland have gotten a bit more complicated - vis-a-vis - but that the psychological barriers are a lot lower. Personally, I think the next time round the playing field will be a lot more level and that will what will see Yes win. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
braveheart_lynch Posted June 25, 2016 Share Posted June 25, 2016 There seems to be this assumption that Yes voters were Remain and No voters were Leave but is there evidence of this? Turnout was different to the independence referendum also. There is nothing to convince me that Scotland would vote Yes in the immediate future. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scunnered Posted June 25, 2016 Share Posted June 25, 2016 4 minutes ago, aaid said: The demographics of this are interesting, we know though that not all SNP voters voted Yes though. I don't necessarily believe that automatically YES=SNP=REMAIN It'll be interesting to see how the polls start to look over the next few months. Alex Massie makes a very good point that practicalities of an independent Scotland have gotten a bit more complicated - vis-a-vis - but that the psychological barriers are a lot lower. Personally, I think the next time round the playing field will be a lot more level and that will what will see Yes win. There will be a poll in the next few days, I got polled by Ipsos Mori yesterday and admittedly it's the first time since early 2015 that I haven't answered "No" and opted for "Undecided". I voted Yes in 2014 as I believed that the SNP could be defeated in the first general election before being able to implement their disastrous economic plan, that will be impossible this time round. BUT I'll be curious to see how their economics shape up this time round given Swinney has been shifted to Education, I suspect it won't be quite as evil this time round. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iainmac1 Posted June 25, 2016 Share Posted June 25, 2016 For this referendum to go through then they need a guarantee that Scotland will be allowed back in the EU. I don't think they will get this guarantee so it will be back to uncertainty. Also many people do want independence outside the EU. Independence is needed first then we can look at the EU. There are some who have said that they will vote no due to staying in the EU. That needs to be countered also. No point winning over no voters if we lose yes votes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
exile Posted June 25, 2016 Share Posted June 25, 2016 As I see it, two big results of the EU outcome: - left-leaning people who on principle would always prefer internationalism to narrow nationalism and division might finally see the possibility of independence through progressive eyes - or at least, the lesser of two evils - even if Scotland does not retain EU membership - the vote sent a signal that Scotland could be outward looking, progressive, etc. - middle ground and centre right and of no particular affiliation, people who vote on economic viability, who could see Scotland a more viable place [than it would have been] if Scotland retains EU membership meaning there could be a flow of people and capital out of England to find a safe haven in Scotland. I've heard a few people (non Scottish) from down south say they'd move to scotland on that basis Obviously the British nationalists would remain anti separation Then, how many 'Yes/Leave' voters would be prepared to vote Yes to get Scotland first out of UK knowing they could later vote out of the EU? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewelk Posted June 25, 2016 Share Posted June 25, 2016 Remember the majority of EU nationals who had a vote in the indyref voted no because they believed the crap about being forced out of the EU. Well, 2 days ago they didn't even get a vote. And now they all look like total chumps. I think we could count on their votes this time... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
exile Posted June 25, 2016 Share Posted June 25, 2016 3 minutes ago, thewelk said: Remember the majority of EU nationals who had a vote in the indyref voted no because they believed the crap about being forced out of the EU. Well, 2 days ago they didn't even get a vote. And now they all look like total chumps. I think we could count on their votes this time... And they are not already counted in the 62% who voted Remain Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aaid Posted June 25, 2016 Author Share Posted June 25, 2016 (edited) Another thought - it will be very difficult for a Brexit dominated UK government to mount another Project Fear campaign. They'd be laughed out of town. Edited June 25, 2016 by aaid Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brassrubber Posted June 25, 2016 Share Posted June 25, 2016 Once the morris dancing fans start singing their anti eu and scots vitrol at the euros call a snap indyref Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thplinth Posted June 25, 2016 Share Posted June 25, 2016 I'd just like to thank Alan for making this possible. If it was not for the tories we would not be having this second crack at the indy ref again so soon, only 5 years since the last one, a time scale so short no one would have dreamed it possible. Plus they have changed the political landscape to the point where YES stands a much better chance of winning IMHO. Incredible result and all made possible by the conservative party. It is almost like a dream. All those years foaming at the mouth about the SNP and it is Dave Cameron who puts independence on a plate. Ha ha! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ally Bongo Posted June 25, 2016 Share Posted June 25, 2016 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Padre Andrew Posted June 25, 2016 Share Posted June 25, 2016 3 hours ago, exile said: And they are not already counted in the 62% who voted Remain Anyone know how many potential voters this would amount to? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aaid Posted June 25, 2016 Author Share Posted June 25, 2016 8 minutes ago, Padre Andrew said: Anyone know how many potential voters this would amount to? I've heard the figure of 170,000 mentioned. No idea how accurate that is though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TDYER63 Posted June 25, 2016 Share Posted June 25, 2016 10 minutes ago, Padre Andrew said: Anyone know how many potential voters this would amount to? I think you need to be careful with this number. Its possible many of them voted 'remain' purely to avoid indyref2 and no way would vote yes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kumnio Posted June 25, 2016 Share Posted June 25, 2016 EU residents didnt get a vote in this referendum. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TDYER63 Posted June 25, 2016 Share Posted June 25, 2016 2 minutes ago, TDYER63 said: I think you need to be careful with this number. Its possible many of them voted 'remain' purely to avoid indyref2 and no way would vote yes. Sorry , i didn't read that properly, 4 hours clothes shopping with my 20yr old daughter is almost throwing me over the edge. I was referring to the 62% , not the number of eu nationals. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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