Indy Ref 2

[aaid]

Since no-one's started the thread...

A lot of former No voters including some pretty prominant activists, politicians and commentators either coming out for Yes or softening their position - even Chris Deerin saying today that he's not saying that he would vote Yes but that he couldn't say that he would vote No.  

It only needs 200,000 people to shift to change the result next time.

One of the key "No" voting demographics were other EU nationals, I can't imagine that isn't going to shift big time. 

[McDange]

How much of that is a knee-jerk reaction though? Would they actually cross the YES box next time round? 

[jockodile]

Correct for Nicola to lay down a marker as feelings are running high, but lets keep powder dry and see what transpires. All I feel right now is anger at the outcome of the UK ref, not solace in the Scotland/London/NI results.

We need to build Indyref2 to be not some leap into the dark that many feared last time, even some of those who still went for it, but a leap into the light.

Slam dunk next time I reckon however, this does feel like a watershed moment.

[TDYER63]

I mentioned the Eu national vote on the main thread. I think this would provide a reasonable swing to 'yes' but have no idea how many eu voters there are or how the voting went last time.

However these votes  could be negated by previous yes voters who also supported leave. How many are there and how would they vote? I think it is a bit of a minefield. 

[jockodile]

doesn't need a snap poll tdyer63. issues to be fixed first - currency and deficit plan for a start.

[Scunnered]

11 minutes ago, TDYER63 said:

However these votes  could be negated by previous yes voters who also supported leave. How many are there and how would they vote? I think it is a bit of a minefield. 

If any Indyref is for an automatic application to the EU I'd vote No.  If an Indyref is solely for independence with a decision to be taken on the EU later, I could vote Yes.

[Toepoke]

There's currently a Call Kaye special on Radio Scotland on this very subject.

Quite a few No voters from 2014 calling in saying they'll vote Yes next time, on the other hand there's been a number of Yes voters who will vote No next time...

[McDange]

Scottish independence 

[Scunnered]

I suspect any indyref would be based on the second scenario I painted above given 1/3 of SNP voters apparently voted Leave.  An Independent Scotland outwith the EU could be a very attractive thing.

[aaid]

3 minutes ago, Scunnered said:

I suspect any indyref would be based on the second scenario I painted above given 1/3 of SNP voters apparently voted Leave.  An Independent Scotland outwith the EU could be a very attractive thing.

The demographics of this are interesting, we know though that not all SNP voters voted Yes though.

I don't necessarily believe that automatically YES=SNP=REMAIN

It'll be interesting to see how the polls start to look over the next few months.

Alex Massie makes a very good point that practicalities of an independent Scotland have gotten a bit more complicated - vis-a-vis - but that the psychological barriers are a lot lower.

Personally, I think the next time round the playing field will be a lot more level and that will what will see Yes win.  

[braveheart_lynch]

There seems to be this assumption that Yes voters were Remain and No voters were Leave but is there evidence of this? Turnout was different to the independence referendum also. There is nothing to convince me that Scotland would vote Yes in the immediate future.

 

[Scunnered]

4 minutes ago, aaid said:

The demographics of this are interesting, we know though that not all SNP voters voted Yes though.

I don't necessarily believe that automatically YES=SNP=REMAIN

It'll be interesting to see how the polls start to look over the next few months.

Alex Massie makes a very good point that practicalities of an independent Scotland have gotten a bit more complicated - vis-a-vis - but that the psychological barriers are a lot lower.

Personally, I think the next time round the playing field will be a lot more level and that will what will see Yes win.  

There will be a poll in the next few days, I got polled by Ipsos Mori yesterday and admittedly it's the first time since early 2015 that I haven't answered "No" and opted for "Undecided".

I voted Yes in 2014 as I believed that the SNP could be defeated in the first general election before being able to implement their disastrous economic plan, that will be impossible this time round.  BUT I'll be curious to see how their economics shape up this time round given Swinney has been shifted to Education, I suspect it won't be quite as evil this time round.

[iainmac1]

For this referendum to go through then they need a guarantee that Scotland will be allowed back in the EU. I don't think they will get this guarantee so it will be back to uncertainty. 

Also many people do want independence outside the EU. Independence is needed first then we can look at the EU. There are some who have said that they will vote no due to staying in the EU. That needs to be countered also. No point winning over no voters if we lose yes votes.

[exile]

As I see it, two big results of the EU outcome:

- left-leaning people who on principle would always prefer internationalism to narrow nationalism and division might finally see the possibility of independence through progressive eyes - or at least, the lesser of two evils - even if Scotland does not retain EU membership - the vote sent a signal that Scotland could be outward looking, progressive, etc.

- middle ground and centre right and of no particular affiliation, people who vote on economic viability, who could see Scotland a more viable place [than it would have been]  if Scotland retains EU membership meaning there could be a flow of people and capital out of England to find a safe haven in Scotland. I've heard a few people (non Scottish) from down  south say they'd move to scotland on that basis

Obviously the British nationalists would remain anti separation

Then, how many 'Yes/Leave' voters would be prepared to vote Yes to get Scotland first out of UK knowing they could later vote out of the EU?

 

 

[thewelk]

Remember the majority of EU nationals who had a vote in the indyref voted no because they believed the crap about being forced out of the EU. Well, 2 days ago they didn't even get a vote. And now they all look like total chumps.

I think we could count on their votes this time...

[exile]

3 minutes ago, thewelk said:

Remember the majority of EU nationals who had a vote in the indyref voted no because they believed the crap about being forced out of the EU. Well, 2 days ago they didn't even get a vote. And now they all look like total chumps.

I think we could count on their votes this time...

And they are not already counted in the 62% who voted Remain

[aaid]

Another thought - it will be very difficult for a Brexit dominated UK government to mount another Project Fear campaign. They'd be laughed out of town.  

Edited June 25, 2016 by aaid

[Brassrubber]

Once the morris dancing fans start singing their anti eu and scots vitrol at the euros call a snap indyref

[thplinth]

I'd just like to thank Alan for making this possible. If it was not for the tories we would not be having this second crack at the indy ref again so soon, only 5 years since the last one, a time scale so short no one would have dreamed it possible. Plus they have changed the political landscape to the point where YES stands a much better chance of winning IMHO.

Incredible result and all made possible by the conservative party. It is almost like a dream. All those years foaming at the mouth about the SNP and it is Dave Cameron who puts independence on a plate. Ha ha!

[Ally Bongo]

[Padre Andrew]

3 hours ago, exile said:

And they are not already counted in the 62% who voted Remain

Anyone know how many potential voters this would amount to?

[aaid]

8 minutes ago, Padre Andrew said:

Anyone know how many potential voters this would amount to?

I've heard the figure of 170,000 mentioned.  No idea how accurate that is though. 

[TDYER63]

10 minutes ago, Padre Andrew said:

Anyone know how many potential voters this would amount to?

I think you need to be careful with this number. Its possible many of them voted 'remain' purely to avoid indyref2 and no way would vote yes. 

[kumnio]

EU residents didnt get a vote in this referendum.

[TDYER63]

2 minutes ago, TDYER63 said:

I think you need to be careful with this number. Its possible many of them voted 'remain' purely to avoid indyref2 and no way would vote yes. 

Sorry , i didn't read that properly, 4 hours clothes shopping with my 20yr old daughter is almost throwing me over the edge.  I was referring to the 62% , not the number of eu nationals.