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  • 3 months later...

Out on the beryl field at the moment which is in the middle of a huge shit down in preparation for new wells coming on line,, they are saying that the beryl alpha alone will exceed 50k barrels of oil a day and thats not taking the bravo into consideration,,, for a old platform like that it is very impressive,,,, it seems to be the trend at the moment,, likewise recent platforms i have visited, the ELGIN and Montrose have undergone drilling programs of which will boost product massively,,,, the output of the northsea will rocket in the next few yarrs,,, so many new wells and fields coming online 

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2 minutes ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

Out on the beryl field at the moment which is in the middle of a huge shit down in preparation for new wells coming on line,, they are saying that the beryl alpha alone will exceed 50k barrels of oil a day and thats not taking the bravo into consideration,,, for a old platform like that it is very impressive,,,, it seems to be the trend at the moment,, likewise recent platforms i have visited, the ELGIN and Montrose have undergone drilling programs of which will boost product massively,,,, the output of the northsea will rocket in the next few yarrs,,, so many new wells and fields coming online 

"Sack the chef" that's what I say. sounds like it could get messy.:lol: Still, fish need to eat something so not all bad.

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  • 1 month later...
1 hour ago, virus-with-shoes said:

Would that extra tax income been missed off the GERS figures that year?

And if its included now, how does that affect the Scottish deficit as a % of GDP vs UK deficit as a % of GDP?

That's the key question for me.  

GERS already has a calculation of a geographical share of oil for Scotland. 

I'm a bit suspicious of this news as it appears quite a narrow narrative. It doesn't add up that Westminster has decided to gift Scotland extra money. If it doesn't equate to an increase in the GERS figures (i.e. an increase in Tax take for Scotland), then it's simply twisting a change in approach stats/allocations to try and fashion a political point from the indy side. 

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16 minutes ago, AlfieMoon said:

That's the key question for me.  

GERS already has a calculation of a geographical share of oil for Scotland. 

I'm a bit suspicious of this news as it appears quite a narrow narrative. It doesn't add up that Westminster has decided to gift Scotland extra money. If it doesn't equate to an increase in the GERS figures (i.e. an increase in Tax take for Scotland), then it's simply twisting a change in approach stats/allocations to try and fashion a political point from the indy side. 

I find it unbelievable that the SG have not set up a system of their own to calculate the economic output of Scotland 

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56 minutes ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

I find it unbelievable that the SG have not set up a system of their own to calculate the economic output of Scotland 

There's two problems with that.  First of all its very difficult and expensive to do that within the current constitutional set up.   Most of the data is collected centrally by the UK government.  If you were to change that so that it was collected at a Scottish level, then you would involve a lot of increased cost for what is arguably very little benefit.   

Secondly, to do that now - while the GERS figures look detrimental to Scotland - would be politically damaging.  You would just get accused of not liking the "true" figures and so making up ones that you do like.  

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3 hours ago, AlfieMoon said:

That's the key question for me.  

GERS already has a calculation of a geographical share of oil for Scotland. 

I'm a bit suspicious of this news as it appears quite a narrow narrative. It doesn't add up that Westminster has decided to gift Scotland extra money. If it doesn't equate to an increase in the GERS figures (i.e. an increase in Tax take for Scotland), then it's simply twisting a change in approach stats/allocations to try and fashion a political point from the indy side. 

Scotland isn't getting any extra money. They have just changed the way that some of the oil money is allocated to the GDP figures.

Even the GDP figures for the whole of the UK are a big guesstimate when they are released and they are almost always revised up or down after they have looked at the figures more closely, over a period of months. And even then they are just an estimate.

Trying to separate the GDP figures for Scotland and the rest of the UK is almost impossible to do with any degree of accuracy. Companies just don't submit separate figure for the different parts of the UK. There is no requirement on them to do so and if they did have to, it would be very expensive to administer.

 

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2 hours ago, aaid said:

There's two problems with that.  First of all its very difficult and expensive to do that within the current constitutional set up.   Most of the data is collected centrally by the UK government.  If you were to change that so that it was collected at a Scottish level, then you would involve a lot of increased cost for what is arguably very little benefit.   

Secondly, to do that now - while the GERS figures look detrimental to Scotland - would be politically damaging.  You would just get accused of not liking the "true" figures and so making up ones that you do like.  

I think it would also require Westminster legislation to make companies report separate accounts for Scotland and the rest of the UK. That just isn't going to happen.

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1 hour ago, Orraloon said:

Scotland isn't getting any extra money. They have just changed the way that some of the oil money is allocated to the GDP figures.

Even the GDP figures for the whole of the UK are a big guesstimate when they are released and they are almost always revised up or down after they have looked at the figures more closely, over a period of months. And even then they are just an estimate.

Trying to separate the GDP figures for Scotland and the rest of the UK is almost impossible to do with any degree of accuracy. Companies just don't submit separate figure for the different parts of the UK. There is no requirement on them to do so and if they did have to, it would be very expensive to administer.

 

So basically the way that this was presented by Wings and repeated by followers is a disgraceful case of fake news. The recalculation/redistribution of these numbers goes in no way to fill the "£15bn black hole" as it was put. Especially if we're talking GDP rather than tax take. 

Indy supporters are quick to criticise the No side for their tactics and lies but I reckon this is pretty poor as well IMO. 

Edited by AlfieMoon
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55 minutes ago, AlfieMoon said:

So basically the way that this was presented by Wings and repeated by followers is a disgraceful case of fake news. The recalculation/redistribution of these numbers goes in no way to fill the "£15bn black hole" as it was put. Especially if we're talking GDP rather than tax take. 

Indy supporters are quick to criticise the No side for their tactics and lies but I reckon this is pretty poor as well IMO. 

No, that's not what I am saying at all. You might want to read the Wings article again if that is how you interpreted it.

 

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  • 2 weeks later...

 

Good article in oil and gas people about the report BFS did regarding missing tax revenue from the north sea,,,give oil and gas people their due,, they are most definitely pro-independence 

https://www.oilandgaspeople.com/news/14919/westminster-and-the-big-lie-about-scotlands-oil/

 

 

"WESTMINSTER'S 'mismanagement' of oil since the price slump two years ago has cost Scotland tens of billions of pounds and is being falsely used to attack independence, a leading think tank has claimed ahead of the publication of the nation's annual balance sheet.

Scotland would be an economic powerhouse if UK ministers had not mishandled North Sea wealth since the start of the oil crisis, Business for Scotland (BFS) said.

BFS said that since the crash in oil prices in 2015 when the price of a barrel more than halved, Norway has made nearly £29.33bn in oil and gas revenues, while the UK lost almost £22.8m.

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Pro-independence BFS said its report showed that without the UK Government's mishandling of the oil and gas industry, "Scotland would run a significant fiscal surplus".

Using detailed oil price research since the price crash - which saw tens of thousands of jobs axed - BFS contrasted the North Sea tax regimes of the Norwegian and UK governments.

The findings come ahead of this week's release of the Government Expenditure and Revenue Scotland (GERS) figures - the annual estimate of the Scottish economy.

GERS figures show the 'net fiscal balance' for Scotland - the difference between public sector expenditure and public sector revenue.

BFS said the findings, which are due out on Wednesday, are expected to show Scotland as part of Britain running a bigger deficit that the rest of the UK.

However, BFS claimed the UK Government's failure to manage Scotland’s oil was being falsely used to attack the Scottish economy and the case for independence.

Commenting on the report, Gordon MacIntyre-Kemp, BFS chief executive, said: "It is deeply ironic that the UK government's mismanagement of oil and gas taxation removes billions in revenues from Scotland’s national accounts, creating a fiscal deficit which they then present as their key economic argument for maintaining the Union."

BFS also claimed Westminster had squandered resources on tax advantages for oil corporations rather than protecting jobs since the crisis began.

Oil giant Shell was made to pay taxes in each of the 24 countries where it extracts oil and gas - apart from the UK - since the oil price drop, the BFS research states.

It added that the UK also gave Shell £179m in tax rebates, while the multinational paid Norway £4.6bn.

A further £342m was handed out in tax rebates to BP during the same period, the report said.

In a detailed study of oil price research, it said: "It's the UK government's oil and gas policies and not the oil price alone that have led to Scotland's accounts showing a deficit."

BFS said that in the two years since the oil price dropped, the Norwegian government generated over £29.33bn in oil and gas revenues whilst the UK government is predicting it will lose £22.8million.

BFS claimed that Westminster gave tax rebates to large oil companies to decommission rigs and to explore for new oil fields.

However, it said Norway kept taxation levels on oil and gas at 78 per cent and drew on its oil revenue driven sovereign wealth fund to help workers who lost their jobs rather than subsidise oil companies.

Scotland would have had a multi-billion surplus if the UK Government had adopted the same policy as that of its counterparts in Norway, it claimed.

BFS said that "compared to the UK Government, the Norwegian approach to oil and gas resource governance has been extremely competent. It avoids the need to cut spending having protected their budget from oil price volatility and is focused on channelling oil revenues to the benefit of the public good, not bailing out large oil companies".

The report added: "It is the UK Government’s policies that have created Scotland’s deficit and they have protected big corporations' profits and their shareholders' dividends whilst failing to adequately protect North Sea workers who have lost their jobs."

The findings also included a submission from Ingrid Rasmussen, deputy director general of the Norwegian royal ministry of finance, who set out why her government did not need to reduce taxes on oil production.

Rasmussen said: “The Norwegian petroleum policy aims at ensuring a reasonable public share of the resource rent accruing from petroleum production, and at the same time extract profitable resources.

"Stable and predictable framework conditions for the companies is an important consideration in policy design. Norway did not increase the tax rate when the oil price increased. Correspondingly, the petroleum tax was not reduced when prices fell.”

The report suggests that an independent Scotland could thrive if it followed the Norwegian approach to oil and gas.

In conclusion, BFS said: "GERS therefore demonstrates the core strengths of Scotland’s economy and the weakness in revenues caused by being subject to UK Government policy.

"It would not be unreasonable to add Norway’s £11bn revenues and state that would have been possible as an independent nation."

It added: "The GERS figures will on Wednesday probably show Scotland as part of the UK running a bigger deficit that the rest of the UK, of course it will, UK Government policy has deliberately removed one of Scotland key revenue streams."

Last night, an SNP politician from an area of Scotland severely hit by job losses in the oil industry crisis welcomed the BFS findings.

SNP Aberdeenshire East MSP Gillian Martin said: "It's no secret that oil and gas revenues have been mismanaged over decades by the UK government.

"The Tories were happy to use Scotland’s oil industry as a cash cow when it suited them, but in the industry's time of need in recent years, they have idled while thousands of jobs have been lost.

"They've squandered billions in revenues instead of investing wisely in Scotland's future."

A Scottish Government spokesperson added: “Oil and gas production has generated around £330 billion in tax revenues for the UK exchequer over the last five decades.

"It is clear the UK Government missed the opportunity to manage these resources properly and ensure they provided a lasting benefit to the UK and Scotland, while Norway on the other hand set up an oil fund now valued at over £750 billion."

However, Scottish Conservative shadow finance secretary Murdo Fraser, hitting back, said the industry's crisis had wrecked the case for independence.

He said: "Pro-independence campaigners need to make up their mind on what their message is on North Sea oil.

"SNP politicians spent many years calling for cuts in the tax burden on oil to help recovery and yet here we see their fellow travellers in Business for Scotland rubbishing that very policy response.

"The uncomfortable fact remains for advocates of independence that the collapse of oil reserves means an independent Scotland would face a very substantial blackhole."

However, a UK Government spokesperson disputed the BFS claims that Westminster ministers had mismanaged oil and gas.

The spokesperson said: “These accusations are simply false. The oil and gas sector has faced exceptionally challenging conditions but continues to deliver significant economic benefits for Scotland and the UK as a whole by supporting around 300,000 jobs and providing energy security.

“The UK Government’s priority has been to maximise the long term economic benefits of the sector, including decommissioning, and has provided fiscal support worth £2.3bn to safeguard the future of this vital national industry.”"

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I've always wondered if this whole oil crisis was some how "managed" into a worse state than necessary by the UK government to kill off the thoughts of independence with some supporters. I'm sure some will call it paranoia but history shows London will do anything to stop them losing Scotland, after all if we were suck a burden why would they hang on to us? The answer is they wouldn't because they want and need us.

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