giblet Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 The top 10 by way of voter registration account for 59% of the vote. Below is my thoughts on what kind of lead if any is in each, here is my prediction. Glasgow YES 55/45 Edinburgh NO 47/53 Fife YES 53/47 Nrth Lanark Draw 50/50 Sth Lanark YES 52/48 Aberdeenshire NO 42/58 Aberdeen Draw 50/50 Highland NO 48/52 West Lothian YES 55/45 Falkirk YES 52/48 Glasgow is huge for YES, if we can get a 10pt win, that is worth 40k vote majority. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rossy Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 I don't think Fife will be a Yes unfortunately. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vanderark14 Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 I think Aberdeen will be NO and Aberdeenshire will be a yes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giblet Posted September 16, 2014 Author Share Posted September 16, 2014 I don't think Fife will be a Yes unfortunately. Didnt realise how big Fife is as an electorate. Could be a big one to watch for. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scotlad Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 I think that is probably a reasonable prediction for Glasgow, going by the canvassing data I have seen. I can't see us getting any more than that though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rossy Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 Didnt realise how big Fife is as an electorate. Could be a big one to watch for. It's a diverse Kingdom with plenty of different demographics......a white-collar Edinburgh overspill in the south of the Kingdom around Dunfermline and suburbs, a traditional working class in central and mid-Fife, and a big farming community in the north-east. If I was to hazard a guess I'd say that north-east Fife will be heavily no, that mid-Fife will be slightly yes, and that south Fife will be 50/50..maybe marginally no. There's nothing scientific about my prediction, but I'd go for 53/47 to No. Much will depend on the major population centres of Glenrothes (probably heavily Yes), Dunfermline, probably No and Kirkcaldy (working class but heavily influenced by Gordon Brown...probably No). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbcmfc Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 I would've thought North Lanarkshire would be more yes than south Lanarkshire? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giblet Posted September 16, 2014 Author Share Posted September 16, 2014 I would've thought North Lanarkshire would be more yes than south Lanarkshire? What would be your estimate on plus and minuses on both? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wullie Anderson Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 It's a diverse Kingdom with plenty of different demographics......a white-collar Edinburgh overspill in the south of the Kingdom around Dunfermline and suburbs, a traditional working class in central and mid-Fife, and a big farming community in the north-east. If I was to hazard a guess I'd say that north-east Fife will be heavily no, that mid-Fife will be slightly yes, and that south Fife will be 50/50..maybe marginally no. There's nothing scientific about my prediction, but I'd go for 53/47 to No. Much will depend on the major population centres of Glenrothes (probably heavily Yes), Dunfermline, probably No and Kirkcaldy (working class but heavily influenced by Gordon Brown...probably No). Canvassers in Cardenden have been getting a near 60% yes on every street in the village.Surprised me but people are pissed off with the Labour has went. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jock strap Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 Dundee will have a huge amount of YES voters. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbcmfc Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 What would be your estimate on plus and minuses on both? I've no idea. Had just presumed North Lanarkshire has more large working class towns, and South Lanarkshire has more middle class towns. I hadn't seen a great deal of support for no other than from folk who I imagine are influenced by the unionist leanings of their football team. However there was an event on in bothwell over the weekend and there were a lot of No thanks stickers on middle class, Middle Aged people, the sort that don't use social media and perhaps wouldn't put a sticker in their window. Got me thinking there could be a silent majority.... Anyway, no idea on figures, as based on most of what I see, unless there is a silent majority, I can't believe it's so close and not 60/40 or even 70/30 in favour of yes, but I'd guess based on a quick think that North Lanarkshire is slightly more yes than south. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacWalka Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 I've no idea. Had just presumed North Lanarkshire has more large working class towns, and South Lanarkshire has more middle class towns. I hadn't seen a great deal of support for no other than from folk who I imagine are influenced by the unionist leanings of their football team. However there was an event on in bothwell over the weekend and there were a lot of No thanks stickers on middle class, Middle Aged people, the sort that don't use social media and perhaps wouldn't put a sticker in their window. Got me thinking there could be a silent majority.... Anyway, no idea on figures, as based on most of what I see, unless there is a silent majority, I can't believe it's so close and not 60/40 or even 70/30 in favour of yes, but I'd guess based on a quick think that North Lanarkshire is slightly more yes than south. I was going to say the same, North is definitely more Yes than South. Coatbridge alone is going to give a massive Yes boost-although that might be balanced out by Airdrie from my experiences. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jock strap Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 The top 10 by way of voter registration account for 59% of the vote. Below is my thoughts on what kind of lead if any is in each, here is my prediction. Glasgow YES 55/45 Edinburgh NO 47/53 Fife YES 53/47 Nrth Lanark Draw 50/50 Sth Lanark YES 52/48 Aberdeenshire NO 42/58 Aberdeen Draw 50/50 Highland NO 48/52 West Lothian YES 55/45 Falkirk YES 52/48 Glasgow is huge for YES, if we can get a 10pt win, that is worth 40k vote majority. Missed out the whole of Tayside and Perthshire ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kumnio Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 Aberdeenshire bigger than Aberdeen, I would never have guessed that. I can't predict the areas, as long as the overall figure suits us, I shall be a very contented man. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TA Torr Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/scottish-independence/area-with-highest-pp-yes-vote Odds on highest % yes on odds checker Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snoopyhill Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 (edited) http://www.oddscheck...est-pp-yes-vote Odds on highest % yes on odds checker Good to see Dundee at the top of any table! Edited September 16, 2014 by snoopyhill Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitre Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 Good to see Dundee at the top of any table! See if I can dig out the Teenage Pregnancies one Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cove_Sheep Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 I think Aberdeen will be NO and Aberdeenshire will be a yes I think Aberdeen might be a marginal win for UKOK but I expect UKOK to win the Shire comfortably. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wembley67lisbon Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 All the farmers I know in fife are no. More west you go, more yes there is. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hannibal smith Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 do all postal votes counted get added into the total for the regions in which they were cast or does they get announced separately Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cove_Sheep Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 do all postal votes counted get added into the total for the regions in which they were cast or does they get announced separately As I understand it, they are being counted as part of the main ballots. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giblet Posted September 16, 2014 Author Share Posted September 16, 2014 Missed out the whole of Tayside and Perthshire ? Not in top 10 unfortunately (Tayside) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jock strap Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 Not in top 10 unfortunately (Tayside) Due to numbers ? Im no just saying this, but everybody I know in Dundee is a YES. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
macy37 Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 Scottish Borders 64/36 no. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giblet Posted September 16, 2014 Author Share Posted September 16, 2014 (edited) Due to numbers ? Im no just saying this, but everybody I know in Dundee is a YES. yup, think Dundee in terms of voter registration is 12th. I have you down for a 60/40 on my spreadsheet though? p.s a 60/40 for YES give us 18k ahead in the region. Edited September 16, 2014 by giblet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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