Reasons For No. What Have You Heard?

[kumnio]

From one boy in the square in Dortmund yesterday: "I'm British".

Saw one boy in Dusseldorf today with a kilt and a Union Jack tshirt.

[PASTA Mick]

Saw one boy in Dusseldorf today with a kilt and a Union Jack tshirt.

Probably the same guy Flure was talking about with the rank personal hygiene.

[Armchair Bob]

Saw one boy in Dusseldorf today with a kilt and a Union Jack tshirt.

John Barrowman gets about, doesn't he?

[mariokempes56]

Saw one boy in Dusseldorf today with a kilt and a Union Jack tshirt.

He was standing outside the ibis today and I just thought WTF, make yer mind up.

[exile]

An independent Scotland will have to decide whether to classify thousands of species that only occur south of the border as alien, according to a leading wildlife expert.

http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/referendum-news/biologists-fears-over-labels-for-species.25252711

[AbductedbyAliens]

Alot of people on my social media seem concerned about mortgages and what will happen in the event of whatever currency option is taken.

[vanderark14]

Every single NO voter I have debated with usually reveals their true position of ignorance, lack of understanding and fear at some point.

Example, last night in a hotel bar near Grangemouth a guy from Aberdeen was giving his reasons for NO which I wAs able to counter easily and eventually he got angry and practically roared out that "king salmond wants let in all the foreigners"

Most of it comes down to salmond, up here I've had a lot of 'what's salmond done for this area' so again its a lack of understanding

I fear that the ignorant will have their way and we will lose this vote

[biffer]

An independent Scotland will have to decide whether to classify thousands of species that only occur south of the border as alien, according to a leading wildlife expert.

http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/referendum-news/biologists-fears-over-labels-for-species.25252711

That happens now. Alien in this context relates to a particular ecosystem, not national borders.

[AbductedbyAliens]

I think alot of people will go back to NO on the day too. Really hope they dont but the press has really ramped up the scare stories recently and it will only get alot worse.

[EddardStark]

I think alot of people will go back to NO on the day too. Really hope they dont but the press has really ramped up the scare stories recently and it will only get alot worse.

SNP(I mean Yes) campaign have indulged in scare tactics for the last few weeks. Especially on the NHS. How else could they win over the number of No Labour voters. ?

Edited September 9, 2014 by EddardStark

[Armchair Bob]

I think alot of people will go back to NO on the day too. Really hope they dont but the press has really ramped up the scare stories recently and it will only get alot worse.

Not so sure. Once you stop believing the fear it just bounces off you like kiddies ghost stories off a grown up.

What's more likely is it will discredit the mainstream media in the eyes of even more people, which is good.

Edited September 9, 2014 by Armchair Bob

[ParisInAKilt]

I think alot of people will go back to NO on the day too. Really hope they dont but the press has really ramped up the scare stories recently and it will only get alot worse.

Can't see it. The scare stories have lost their impact after 2 years. +

[deecie]

I recon come the day folk will be more likely to think " it, yes" rather than a last minute switch to "No".

[John_B81]

I haven't heard a single argument as to why we're going to be "better together" from the No camp other than scare-mongering bollocks.

[Toepoke]

Saw one boy in Dusseldorf today with a kilt and a Union Jack tshirt.

To be fair to him you can't get a much more British symbol of Scottishness than the modern military kilt...

[biffer]

I recon come the day folk will be more likely to think "badger it, yes" rather than a last minute switch to "No".

I think there might be a bit of that in the Scottish mentality tbh.

[AbductedbyAliens]

Can see the papers jumping all over that Credit Suisse report -

They assume a 25% probability that Scotland will vote yes, but note that markets tend to “overreact to political tail risk,” and may end up pricing in a 35% probability of a yes vote.

Economic crisis:

Garthwaite and his team say:

In our opinion Scotland would fall into a deep recession. We believe deposit flight is both highly likely and highly problematic (with banks assets of 12x GDP) and should the Bank of England move to guarantee Scottish deposits, we expect it to extract a high fiscal and regulatory price (probably insisting on a primary budget surplus).

The re-domiciling of the financial sector and UK public service jobs, as well as a legal dispute over North Sea oil, would further accelerate any downturn.

In our opinion, as North Sea oil production slows, we estimate that the non-oil economy would need a 10% to 20% devaluation to restore competitiveness. This would require a 5% to 10% fall in wages, driven by a steep rise in unemployment.

Currency:

The analysts say:

We believe there is a 50% chance of the Scottish currency falling in value, and potentially significantly: of this, we place a 40% probability on a peg to the pound (which we think would ultimately not hold) and a 10% probability on a freely floating currency.

We place a 50% probability on a currency arrangement which would avoid devaluation against sterling: of this, we place a 25% probability on a formal currency union and a 25% probability on a Hong Kong-style currency board.

Constitutional crisis:

The Credit Suisse analysts are also predicting a constitutional crisis, until Scottish MPs are excluded from Westminster. When they are, the Tories would have a long-term electoral advantage in the UK.

Impact on sterling:

They see the pound weakening to $1.50-1.55.

Impact on stocks:

Exporters such as Diageo and Pernod-Ricard should benefit, while domestic plays, especially banks, could suffer (RBS, Lloyds, TSB).

[johnnie x]

I saw some guy walking down the street today with a 'Scots are not Norwegians' T-shirt.

That made me think......then I realised he was correct and that Scots indeed are not Norwegians.

[giblet]

Need help speaking to a couple of mates who are No at moment mainly around the issue of mortgages being potentially dearer if no currency union? Any pointers there for me?

[biffer]

Need help speaking to a couple of mates who are No at moment mainly around the issue of mortgages being potentially dearer if no currency union? Any pointers there for me?

You borrow in a currency against a profile of personal risk - i.e. how risky are you and how risky is the currency you're borrowing in. The mortgage scare stuff is a conflation of the rates charged for government and personal borrowing - the two aren't really connected. The cost of borrowing for the UK government has varied over the years - what you should point out to them is that the cost of UK borrowing has fallen by 2% over the last couple of years. I bet their mortgage rate hasn't fallen like that.

Data

http://www.gecodia.com/UK-Government-10Y-Yields_a1789.html

[Alibi]

Can see the papers jumping all over that Credit Suisse report -

They assume a 25% probability that Scotland will vote yes, but note that markets tend to “overreact to political tail risk,” and may end up pricing in a 35% probability of a yes vote.

Economic crisis:

Garthwaite and his team say:

Currency:

In our opinion Scotland would fall into a deep recession. We believe deposit flight is both highly likely and highly problematic (with banks assets of 12x GDP) and should the Bank of England move to guarantee Scottish deposits, we expect it to extract a high fiscal and regulatory price (probably insisting on a primary budget surplus).

The re-domiciling of the financial sector and UK public service jobs, as well as a legal dispute over North Sea oil, would further accelerate any downturn.

In our opinion, as North Sea oil production slows, we estimate that the non-oil economy would need a 10% to 20% devaluation to restore competitiveness. This would require a 5% to 10% fall in wages, driven by a steep rise in unemployment.

The analysts say:

Constitutional crisis:

We believe there is a 50% chance of the Scottish currency falling in value, and potentially significantly: of this, we place a 40% probability on a peg to the pound (which we think would ultimately not hold) and a 10% probability on a freely floating currency.

We place a 50% probability on a currency arrangement which would avoid devaluation against sterling: of this, we place a 25% probability on a formal currency union and a 25% probability on a Hong Kong-style currency board.

The Credit Suisse analysts are also predicting a constitutional crisis, until Scottish MPs are excluded from Westminster. When they are, the Tories would have a long-term electoral advantage in the UK.

Impact on sterling:

They see the pound weakening to $1.50-1.55.

Impact on stocks:

Exporters such as Diageo and Pernod-Ricard should benefit, while domestic plays, especially banks, could suffer (RBS, Lloyds, TSB).

The corollary of that is "We believe there is a 50% chance of the Scottish currency rising in value"?

Edited September 9, 2014 by Alibi

[biffer]

The corollary of that is "We believe there is a 50% chance of the Scottish currency rising in value"?

Nah, it might be 25% rise, 25% stable. Need to see the complete report. Still a fairly shit observation to pull out in their summary though

[exile]

Someone on TV saying they might vote no if we get more powers. Sandwiched between endless BBC reporting on more powers.

[ErsatzThistle]

Anyone else see the report from Embra tonight on the BBC round about 18:00-19:00 ?

Interviewed four voters. Two Scots, one English and one Northern Irish. Both Scots were pro Yes. The Northern Irish guy was a No who just kept saying "I think we're better together", he probably wanted to but was too scared to say "us proddies should stick together you know". The English girl was also a No who said she felt "threatened by independence" (never elaborated on what she meant by this) and that she was "more British than English".

Ach, some you just can't win.

[euan2020]

Anyone culling off no supporters from your facebook after next week ?

some are quite tenuous links with people i worked with 15 years ago - when i see some of the remarks they make

"what if the 'no' campaign is all bluster and exaggerated facts.......but people are voting 'yes' on nothing more than 'you will be better off......believe me"

even knows she is being lied to, but think's its good

Financial Consultant ................... but not good enough to pass the associated chartered bank exams when i was there ......................................