Biggest Political Shock Of Our Generation

[Auld_Reekie]

Don't know about anybody else, but this tweet from Declan Lawn of Panorama makes the hair on the back of my neck stand on end:

@DecLawn

"After four days in Scotland I now actually think they are about to deliver one of the biggest political shocks of our generation #indyref"

https://twitter.com/DecLawn/status/507477806536994817

While half this country appear ready to vote Yes, I don't think many on both sides realise the enormity of what might happen in 2 weeks. When you stop and think of the enormity of the vote, what it would mean, and what the Yes campaign have achieved against all kind of odds, it is hard not to feel overwhelmed by it. The UK media and establishment only just seem to realising it could happen and even still, it seems half hearted. And because of this, I don't think it's taken overly serious round the world in any great way.

If we do this, it is monumental. And I over-egging this at all?

[Thpinth]

Not at all, and I think "one of the biggest..." is even a gross understatement. Whatever happens (and I'm starting to think, for the first time really, that a YES vote is now a distinct possibility) the implications are absolutely massive.

I can't think of a bigger political shock in this generation, can you?

[Auld_Reekie]

The only thing I could really draw a parallel to was the fall of the Berlin wall but it's difficult to know if it's reasonable to compare the two or have a fair grasp of whether my memory of it does it justice.

I don't know enough about it so it's hard to judge. Was there a comparable systematic and deep-rooted opposition to it? Were the lasting ramifications as huge? Has there ever been a more peaceful, dramatic and bold democratic declaration of independence?

Two weeks today, I don't know what I'll do with myself as the polls come to a close and I genuinely have no idea what will happen if it starts looking like a Yes.

[Thpinth]

The only thing I could really draw a parallel to was the fall of the Berlin wall but it's difficult to know if it's reasonable to compare the two or have a fair grasp of whether my memory of it does it justice.

I don't know enough about it so it's hard to judge. Was there a comparable systematic and deep-rooted opposition to it? Were the lasting ramifications as huge? Has there ever been a more peaceful, dramatic and bold democratic declaration of independence?

Two weeks today, I don't know what I'll do with myself as the polls come to a close and I genuinely have no idea what will happen if it starts looking like a Yes.

Ah sorry, I was thinking in a purely British context. I guess in terms of geo-political shocks there are plenty of comparable events or ones with much bigger ramifications (end of Apartheid, 9/11, collapse of communism, you name it) and it's then "one of..." is fair enough.

In terms of UK constitutional politics though this is as big as it gets,

Edited September 4, 2014 by Thpinth

[Bristolhibby]

The Biggest event in UK politics for 70 years.

It literally will be "resetting the clocks" for politics on the Island of Great Britain.

I just pray we make it over the line. Soo much depends on this step being taken.

For me it will be the inward look that Britain has to take at itself. Throwing it's weight around on the worlds stage, while 5m of its population slip away to take their own destiny.

There will be a real crisis in confidence. As I said, a game changer.

It will also be the most wonderful self assertion for our people in living memory.

Please make it so.

J

[Haggis_trap]

He he : imagine waking up on the Friday morning thinking f--k we have done it.

I will be ecstatic - but a little bit awe struck / shocked / nervous and excited for the future all at once.

This is huge and it going to be baw-hair close.

[thewelk]

You've got to imagine that in this kind of situation the UK government will have their hands on the carpet ready to pull it. There's no way that over the last 40 years of 'nationalist uprising' they didn't pay some civil servant somewhere to come up with a red button plan.

[Hertsscot]

There was an article in the Guardian last weekend. It contained an extract from Owen Jones new book, The Establishment. He concludes "the establishment is amassing wealth and aggressively annexing power in a way that has no precedent in modern times. After all there is nothing to stop it"

The establishment that Owen Jones identifies is of course very much pro-union, business as usual becaue it has profitted them very well over the last forty years. I think the independence debate says an end to a politics of greed and inequality, I think Scots are waking up and saying we can end this. I'm a natural Labour voter and the biggest favour Labout voters in Scotland can do is vote Yes. That will be the biggest filip to radical politics in the British Isles in both the short and long term.

[Jonny]

There was an article in the Guardian last weekend. It contained an extract from Owen Jones new book, The Establishment. He concludes "the establishment is amassing wealth and aggressively annexing power in a way that has no precedent in modern times. After all there is nothing to stop it"

The establishment that Owen Jones identifies is of course very much pro-union, business as usual becaue it has profitted them very well over the last forty years. I think the independence debate says an end to a politics of greed and inequality, I think Scots are waking up and saying we can end this. I'm a natural Labour voter and the biggest favour Labout voters in Scotland can do is vote Yes. That will be the biggest filip to radical politics in the British Isles in both the short and long term.

Agreed.

[McDange]

I remember seeing "Scotland has never been afraid to shock the world" written somewhere in an article I was reading and thought, wow. That's good.

You will always remember where you were and what you were doing when you find out the result.

T-minus 2 weeks and counting...

[exile]

Rebel MPs plot instant revolt against Cameron, if Yes campaign win

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/scottish-independence/scottish-independence-exclusive-rebel-mps-plot-instant-revolt-against-cameron-if-yes-campaign-win-9712688.html

[exile]

British Bosses Get Scottish Independence Jitters as Polls Narrow

http://online.wsj.com/articles/british-bosses-get-scottish-independence-jitters-as-polls-narrow-1409917401

[Auchinyell Sox Change]

The only thing I could really draw a parallel to was the fall of the Berlin wall but it's difficult to know if it's reasonable to compare the two or have a fair grasp of whether my memory of it does it justice.

I don't know enough about it so it's hard to judge. Was there a comparable systematic and deep-rooted opposition to it? Were the lasting ramifications as huge? Has there ever been a more peaceful, dramatic and bold democratic declaration of independence?

Two weeks today, I don't know what I'll do with myself as the polls come to a close and I genuinely have no idea what will happen if it starts looking like a Yes.

not comparable

we entered into a union, albeit 300 years back

we were'nt taken over by the Communists , policed by the Stassi, driving trabants...

fall of Berlin Wall was a iconic moment in modern world history ; if Scotland does vote for Independence it will barely register in many parts of the world

- the break up of Yugoslavia (without the wars) maybe closer to the mark on the richter scale , or Baltic states etc gaining independence...

[harrystarfish]

He he : imagine waking up on the Friday morning thinking f--k we have done it.

Will we know by Friday morning or will we still be waiting on some polls to be counted throughout the day on Friday?

[Clyde1998]

Will we know by Friday morning or will we still be waiting on some polls to be counted throughout the day on Friday?

Friday morning. Each council area will declare individually, with counting taking place at several places within a council area (I believe).

Edited September 5, 2014 by Clyde1998

[Ally Bongo]

I think there might be a good indication early on of how it will go if Dumfries & Galloway and the Borders regions declare early.

If the vote is tight in No's strongest area or a remarkable small Yes majority then you would think it would look good for Yes all over

[mariokempes56]

Ally, borders is small numbers but bloody large area so doubt it'd b early. Local activist saying 30% which is high, anything above and Scotland should hit 60%..

[Ally Bongo]

Agreed

[Dave78]

Ally, borders is small numbers but bloody large area so doubt it'd b early. Local activist saying 30% which is high, anything above and Scotland should hit 60%..

Need 35% in the borders to acheive 50.1% if the voting follows the 1997 results.

See this post from WibbleWobble:

"This may help. The following table shows, the time of declaration from the 1997 referendum (add a bit on to get the estimated time for this month's vote due to the higher turnout), name of authority, size of electorate (from 2011) and (importantly) the percentage required to secure a Yes 50.1% vote based on a weighting from the 1997 referendum and the 2011 Holyrood election. So Yes should be aiming for over 55% in Glasgow but 35% in Dumfries and Galloway is still within range for Yes to secure a nationwide Yes vote. So assuming that Clackmannanshire and South Lanarkshire are first to declare, we should be looking at around 53% Yes from those two authorities to put Yes on track for victory. My understanding is that the vote will be announced by each local authority as the votes are counted so no need to wait until the entire country has been counted before we find out the result. We should have a good idea of the winner by around 3.00am I think.

00:41 Clackmannanshire 38,825 54.1

00:50 South Lanarkshire 249,127 52.1

01:49 West Lothian 131,107 55.4

01:54 Orkney 16,950 39.5

01:59 Renfrewshire 130,992 47.6

02:11 Na h-Eileanan Siar 22,274 62.5

02:15 Moray 69,747 53.6

02:20 Dundee 106,775 58.5

02:27 East Renfrewshire 69,447 41.6

02:31 South Ayrshire 90,843 44.9

02:37 East Lothian 78,179 48.6

02:44 Dumfries and G 117,617 35.2

02:53 Falkirk 116,495 56.9

02:57 Stirling 66,483 49.7

03:02 Perth and Kinross 112,324 49.0

03:05 Edinburgh 344,852 44.3

03:09 Midlothian 65,024 52.1

03:13 Shetland 17,845 41.6

03:17 W Dunbartonshire 68,501 53.1

03:21 Inverclyde 61,605 50.4

03:27 Angus 87,428 51.0

03:32 Glasgow 472,545 55.8

03:36 Fife 283,429 48.1

03:40 Scottish Borders 90,422 38.6

03:46 East Ayrshire 96,330 56.0

03:50 North Ayrshire 109,330 54.1

04:07 North Lanarkshire 255,865 54.9

04:13 Aberdeen 167,544 46.4

04:16 East Dunbartonshire 82,032 46.8

04:20 Aberdeenshire 193,636 46.9

04:27 Argyll and Bute 68,586 49.3

05:44 Highland 181,047 50.8"