AAAfather Posted June 15 Posted June 15 With the 1-0 win over Haiti, we are likely to be third place in our group unless we upset Morocco or Brazil, which is optimistic. That means we want to see other qualifying group games with a high final score, particularly when a third seed is playing against the big boys. Mathematically, we are looking for at least four third place teams with worse goal difference than us if we can't sneak a point somewhere. I'm going to track the maths of that in this thread. While 48 teams gives us a good chance of qualifying, its a real butterfly effect situation where goals in other group matches will likely decide our fate. Quote
fringo Posted June 15 Posted June 15 Too many possibilities at this stage to get my head round. Quote
killiefaetheferry Posted June 16 Posted June 16 I’m looking at teams who draw in their first game to then both lose (maybe one more draw) their next two, to both finish on no more than 2 points. Quote
Ak91 Posted June 16 Posted June 16 I can’t see New Zealand or Iran beating Belgium or Egypt so I think third place will finish on 2 points max in that group. There has been a lot of draws, probably caused by the drinks break. This could be good for us. Quote
BoundaryFault Posted June 16 Posted June 16 I like the way Group G is shaping up. Doku, Salah and friends can go some way yo helping us out. Quote
GaryWood34 Posted June 16 Posted June 16 8 hours ago, fringo said: Too many possibilities at this stage to get my head round. I sent myself mental in Germany with it. I shall ignore until the full time whistle v Brazil. Quote
vanderark14 Posted June 16 Posted June 16 1 minute ago, GaryWood34 said: I sent myself mental in Germany with it. I shall ignore until the full time whistle v Brazil. Same here, need more of your positivity on here too GW Quote
GaryWood34 Posted June 16 Posted June 16 Just now, vanderark14 said: Same here, need more of your positivity on here too GW Wouldn’t have been asking for my mental state to be copied with 80 mins on the clock v Haiti. Quote
vanderark14 Posted June 16 Posted June 16 24 minutes ago, GaryWood34 said: Wouldn’t have been asking for my mental state to be copied with 80 mins on the clock v Haiti. 🤣 I think we were all there mate Quote
Orraloon Posted June 16 Posted June 16 At this stage the most specific we can be is we need loads of draws, especially in Scotland's next two games. 😀 Quote
Fairbairn Posted June 16 Posted June 16 2 hours ago, GaryWood34 said: I sent myself mental in Germany with it. I shall ignore until the full time whistle v Brazil. You might have a bit longer to wait. We finish up on the Wednesday but the other groups don't finish till the Sunday so might be a nervy wait to see if we hold on to 3rd place, if that's where we end up! Quote
Orraloon Posted June 16 Posted June 16 4 minutes ago, Fairbairn said: You might have a bit longer to wait. We finish up on the Wednesday but the other groups don't finish till the Sunday so might be a nervy wait to see if we hold on to 3rd place, if that's where we end up! Ach, we'll have 4, 5 or 6 points by that time and we will just be waiting to find who, and where, we play in the next round. 😉 Quote
GaryWood34 Posted June 16 Posted June 16 21 minutes ago, Orraloon said: Ach, we'll have 4, 5 or 6 points by that time and we will just be waiting to find who, and where, we play in the next round. 😉 By 4,5 or 6, do you mean 9? Quote
vanderark14 Posted June 16 Posted June 16 33 minutes ago, Fairbairn said: You might have a bit longer to wait. We finish up on the Wednesday but the other groups don't finish till the Sunday so might be a nervy wait to see if we hold on to 3rd place, if that's where we end up! Just beat Morocco, problem solved🤣 Quote
Texas Pete Posted June 17 Posted June 17 18 hours ago, Ak91 said: I can’t see New Zealand or Iran beating Belgium or Egypt so I think third place will finish on 2 points max in that group. There has been a lot of draws, probably caused by the drinks break. This could be good for us. Can see something similar in a couple of groups but we need it to happen in 4 of them which is a big ask. Hopefully there will also be a couple of 3rd place teams to are on 3 points by beating the bottom placed team but take an absolute pounding off the top 2. This may well happen to us but hopefully we’ll lose by fewer goals than any other teams in a similar position. Quote
Texas Pete Posted June 17 Posted June 17 13 hours ago, vanderark14 said: Just beat Morocco, problem solved🤣 That would do nicely. Would go against everything we have ever done at a major tournament though so I’m guessing it’s not going to happen. 😂 Quote
ceudmilefailte Posted June 17 Posted June 17 14 hours ago, vanderark14 said: Just beat Morocco, problem solved🤣 Certainly help with forward travel plans. Quote
Orraloon Posted June 17 Posted June 17 I think we need to beat Morocco or Brazil. Then we would get Sweden, Japan or Netherlands in the next game. I think we can give them a decent game? If we get through in 3rd place we get the winners of the Germany, France or Mexico group. Think we would get gubbed by any of them. I think that's right. I'm sure somebody will correct me if I'm wrong? Quote
The Black Bra Posted June 17 Posted June 17 Don’t see us beating Morocco. We’ll get more of an idea about Brazil after Fridays games. If we qualify in 3rd place then get knocked out in the round of 32, it’s likely that we’ll have played 4 games in the WC, 3 of them against teams in the top 10 of the rankings, Mexico being the lowest ranked team we could likely face and they’re 13th! Doesn’t bear thinking about what France might do to us….. Just have to make sure we get second! Quote
mccaughey85 Posted June 17 Posted June 17 3 hours ago, Orraloon said: I think we need to beat Morocco or Brazil. Then we would get Sweden, Japan or Netherlands in the next game. I think we can give them a decent game? If we get through in 3rd place we get the winners of the Germany, France or Mexico group. Think we would get gubbed by any of them. I think that's right. I'm sure somebody will correct me if I'm wrong? Germany and France would definitely beat us. Quote
BoundaryFault Posted June 17 Posted June 17 A trip to the Azteca would be the best. I think it would kick off at about 8.00pm in Mexico City. Maybe there'd be about a 35% chance of us winning - but it would be memorable anyway. (A decent performance in a Japan rematch in the next round would be a bonus.) Quote
bdgsct Posted June 17 Posted June 17 5 minutes ago, BoundaryFault said: A trip to the Azteca would be the best. I think it would kick off at about 8.00pm in Mexico City. Maybe there'd be about a 35% chance of us winning - but it would be memorable anyway. (A decent performance in a Japan rematch in the next round would be a bonus.) This is 100% my preference if we qualify. Much more interesting than another trip to foxboro. Quote
DoonTheSlope Posted June 17 Posted June 17 24 minutes ago, BoundaryFault said: A trip to the Azteca would be the best. I think it would kick off at about 8.00pm in Mexico City. Maybe there'd be about a 35% chance of us winning - but it would be memorable anyway. (A decent performance in a Japan rematch in the next round would be a bonus.) Do the SFA have a contingency plan in place incase of a trip to Mexico City to combat the altitude issues? Quote
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