Potential 2nd round

[Northern Light]

11 hours ago, NorthSeaToRockies said:

So, who's making plans for the knockout rounds already? 👀

The Athletic has a pretty useful tool that tracks Scotland's chances of reaching the Round of 32 in real time. It even breaks down the potential opponents and host cities.

After last night's results, we're sitting at a 79% chance of progressing. As things stand, there are essentially three routes:

• Beat Brazil, finish 2nd, and head to Monterrey (most likely against the Netherlands).
• Draw with Brazil, or lose narrowly and qualify as one of the best third-placed teams. In that scenario, there's roughly a 50% chance of facing Mexico in Mexico City and a 50% chance of returning to Boston (against Germany/Ivory Coast).

One of the best features is seeing how matches outside our group affect our odds. Most don't move the needle much, but a few can give us a wee boost. For example, if Bosnia and Herzegovina vs Qatar ends in a draw, Scotland's chances increase by around 10%. As more Matchday 2 fixtures are played, those numbers will keep updating.

Obviously our destiny is still in our own hands, but it's nice to have a bit more insight into the permutations—and a reason to take an interest in some of the other matches as a neutral.

As much as I'd love another Tartan Army invasion of Boston, my gut feeling is that Mexico City is slightly more likely...

Up to 83% after Ecuador draw with Curacao. It’s showing 72% even with a defeat to Brazil, which to be honest I find hard to believe 

[NorthSeaToRockies]

2 hours ago, Northern Light said:

Up to 83% after Ecuador draw with Curacao. It’s showing 72% even with a defeat to Brazil, which to be honest I find hard to believe 

Our friends in Curaçao have definitely helped us out - Ecuador now need to beat Germany to have any chance of advancing as one of the best third-placed teams. That said, Germany have already secured top spot in their group, so they'll likely rest some of their starters.

Like Ecuador vs. Curaçao, any likely third-placed side dropping points is good news for us. What we don't want is a third-placed team hammering a fourth-placed side and building up a big goal difference.

Beating Brazil aside, it really does feel like a 50-50 shot between Boston and Mexico City if we finish third with a decent goal difference.

One of my current headaches is figuring out if and when to book flights - and where to! Has anyone made any tentative travel plans for the Round of 32 yet?

Edited June 21 by NorthSeaToRockies

[DoonTheSlope]

50 minutes ago, NorthSeaToRockies said:

Our friends in Curaçao have definitely helped us out - Ecuador now need to beat Germany to have any chance of advancing as one of the best third-placed teams. That said, Germany have already secured top spot in their group, so they'll likely rest some of their starters.

Like Ecuador vs. Curaçao, any likely third-placed side dropping points is good news for us. What we don't want is a third-placed team hammering a fourth-placed side and building up a big goal difference.

Beating Brazil aside, it really does feel like a 50-50 shot between Boston and Mexico City if we finish third with a decent goal difference.

One of my current headaches is figuring out if and when to book flights - and where to! Has anyone made any tentative travel plans for the Round of 32 yet?

There’s 20 matches to be played after our final match and the next round kicks offs on the same day as the final group game

Ive been keeping an eye on the BBC World Cup schedule and the as it stands chart has had us playing Mexico, Sweden and Germany in the last 24 hours. It’s changing all the time and will do so up until the end of the groups 

It would be an endless and thankless task to be making formal plans anytime soon

 

 

[NorthSeaToRockies]

8 hours ago, DoonTheSlope said:

It would be an endless and thankless task to be making formal plans anytime soon

Totally agree.

Realistically, we'll know our route on June 27 at the latest, and the first of our potential matchups is on June 29, which doesn't leave much time to get everything sorted. I'm hoping things become a little clearer after the Brazil match, rather than having to wait until all the group-stage matches are complete on the 27th.

I was just wondering if anyone has booked refundable flights or hotels on the off chance we end up in a particular city.

[DoonTheSlope]

1 minute ago, NorthSeaToRockies said:

Totally agree.

Realistically, we'll know our route on June 27 at the latest, and the first of our potential matchups is on June 29, which doesn't leave much time to get everything sorted. I'm hoping things become a little clearer after the Brazil match, rather than having to wait until all the group-stage matches are complete on the 27th.

I was just wondering if anyone has booked refundable flights or hotels on the off chance we end up in a particular city.

That’s why I was under the impression the 3rd placed teams were seeded meaning the top seed team would get the longest recovery time before the next match

According to another thread on here somewhere that’s not the case

[NorthSeaToRockies]

13 minutes ago, DoonTheSlope said:

That’s why I was under the impression the 3rd placed teams were seeded meaning the top seed team would get the longest recovery time before the next match

According to another thread on here somewhere that’s not the case

Yeah, there’s no seeding amongst the third-place teams. Once the top eight third-placed teams are known, there is only one possible permutation that works for that combination of groups out of the 495 possible combinations. If Scotland finish third, they are playing in Boston or Mexico City (or New York/New Jersey, although that’s highly unlikely), regardless of whether they are the best or worst of the eight third-placed teams.

[Clyde1998]

13 hours ago, Northern Light said:

Up to 83% after Ecuador draw with Curacao. It’s showing 72% even with a defeat to Brazil, which to be honest I find hard to believe 

Showing 70% with a defeat against Brazil after the Japan-Tunisia game.

The biggest negative outcomes for us now would be (assuming we lose to Brazil):

• 56% - Ecuador beating Germany
• 58% - Czech Rep beating Mexico
• 58% - Curacao beating Ivory Coast
• 60% - South Africa beating South Korea
• 64% - Paraguay vs Australia being a draw

All those matches take place after the Brazil match, but it seems the combination of results required is what's keeping our chances of progression so high.

For completeness, the biggest positive outcomes would be:

• 85% - Bosnia vs Qatar being a draw
• 80% - Cape Verde vs Saudi Arabia being a draw
• 78% - Australia beating Paraguay
• 78% - Senegal vs Iraq being a draw
• 77% - Uruguay vs Cape Verde being a draw
• 77% - DR Congo vs Uzbekistan being a draw

[alan1982]

Mexico vs Scotland in last 32 as it stands .

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/world-cup/schedule

[NorthSeaToRockies]

Here's an even better site (link) for viewing our chances of reaching the Round of 32.

As it stands, we have an 86% chance of progressing according to this site, which closely tracks The Athletic's model (85%). This one just seems a little easier to understand visually, particularly when it comes to seeing which outcomes in other matches improve our chances.

Here's how the matches today and tomorrow could affect our chances.

Still looking like the Azteca is our most likely Round of 32 destination...

[Orraloon]

I see we are currently sitting at 66% to go through if we finish on 3 points. Which is pretty much the same as 8 out of 12. Exactly back to where were before a ball was kicked. 🤣

[Northern Light]

2 hours ago, Orraloon said:

I see we are currently sitting at 66% to go through if we finish on 3 points. Which is pretty much the same as 8 out of 12. Exactly back to where were before a ball was kicked. 🤣

The NYTimes/Athletic model has us at 76% if we lose to Brazil but that still feels optimistic to me. In true Scottish fashion I am just waiting for all the crazy results in the third round that will go against us 😂

[exile]

25 minutes ago, Northern Light said:

The NYTimes/Athletic model has us at 76% if we lose to Brazil but that still feels optimistic to me. In true Scottish fashion I am just waiting for all the crazy results in the third round that will go against us 😂

Yes, I simply can't believe that we are that likely to qualify on three points. 

I can just imagine, all those other teams going into the final games, knowing that an extra goal, an equaliser, a last gasp winner, will likely or actually see them through, and they would be going at it full throttle to their last breath, whereas we would be caught in limbo, second-guessing, if we are 1-0 or 2-0 down do we try to hold on to that and eke it out, or fight back? It could be the grimmest endgame yet, and the grimmest days after if results are going badly, and finally waking up to find out we're out. 

Let's hope we can avoid that, and focus on getting a result by our our efforts, which we have at least managed before.

[del_boy1]

14 minutes ago, exile said:

Yes, I simply can't believe that we are that likely to qualify on three points. 

I can just imagine, all those other teams going into the final games, knowing that an extra goal, an equaliser, a last gasp winner, will likely or actually see them through, and they would be going at it full throttle to their last breath, whereas we would be caught in limbo, second-guessing, if we are 1-0 or 2-0 down do we try to hold on to that and eke it out, or fight back? It could be the grimmest endgame yet, and the grimmest days after if results are going badly, and finally waking up to find out we're out. 

Let's hope we can avoid that, and focus on getting a result by our our efforts, which we have at least managed before.

I think a big issue is the matches with both teams on 3 points or a team on 3 points with a healthy GD. If it's a draw at 60/70 mins, I can't imagine either team risks going for it and losing. 

I'm surprised at the progression stats if I'm honest. I don't see us finishing on -1gd and i don't even think It'll be good enough with just 1 goal scored.

Edited June 22 by del_boy1

[ceudmilefailte]

Do any of these stats sites actually take into account a country’s ability to play football? 

[Grim Jim]

On 6/22/2026 at 5:12 PM, ceudmilefailte said:

Do any of these stats sites actually take into account a country’s ability to play football? 

I've thought that myself, but does this work for us or against us? 😛

[OATN1972]

who would think that a tiny country in Africa would bring us so much tears.... Senegal, I hope the UN and America bomb you bastards