Scottish Parliament Election: 7 May 2026

[hampden_loon2878]

With the Holyrood Election just round the corner, here is what i see happening. The snp will be the largest party with around 32% of the regional vote, reform will shock everyone with around 22% if not slightly more. labour will get completely smashed as will the Tories, alba will struggle to get a seat, maybe 1 or 2,, weird as they have an open goal and have done nothing, the lib dems will be as they were,, irrelevant

list seats i have no idea, the greens will be as they were possibly slightly less than last election  

[Hertsscot]

Probably a fair reflection on where things are currently. I'd probably put Reform slightly higher but I don't think that's a shock to anyone. They'll certainly pick up list seats.

Alba, are a complete irrelevance and are in a far worse state than a few years back. Some Indy Purists might vote for them but it's a wasted vote.

[Goozay]

11 hours ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

With the Holyrood Election just round the corner, here is what i see happening. The snp will be the largest party with around 32% of the regional vote, reform will shock everyone with around 22% if not slightly more. labour will get completely smashed as will the Tories, alba will struggle to get a seat, maybe 1 or 2,, weird as they have an open goal and have done nothing, the lib dems will be as they were,, irrelevant

list seats i have no idea, the greens will be as they were possibly slightly less than last election  

Given that the last two opinion polls published by The National had Reform at 23% and 24%, Reform getting 22% in the election in May will not "shock everyone".

[Caledonian Craig]

22 minutes ago, Goozay said:

Given that the last two opinion polls published by The National had Reform at 23% and 24%, Reform getting 22% in the election in May will not "shock everyone".

Precisely. Reform are getting votes from disenchanted and desperate Scottish Billy Brits. Hence Reform's vote share is up the same percentage as Labour and Conservative are down. They will vote Reform as there is nowhere else to go for them. It demonstrates the angst they have for Scottish independence that they'd rather vote for that.

[Dangerous]

Interesting as to how the list vote will play out. It looks like SNP will get the majority of the constituency seats but their policy of stating both votes SNP could actually scupper their chances of getting a preferred partner to form a coalition. I think they would actually prefer to work with labour (potentially Libdems) rather than anyone else but I suppose they can’t really say use vote 2 for either of those publicly. So it looks like a 2nd vote cast for SNP is a de facto vote for Reform to get list members elected. Interesting system we have - admittedly much better than for Westminster but with interesting quirks.

[Och Aye]

The Daily Record to be printed in Oldham from the spring with the loss of 100 jobs. Their political journalist Paul Hutcheon seems a bit miffed. Hopefully it'll eventually dawn on their readers independence would be a great benefit to them.

[Caledonian Craig]

1 hour ago, Och Aye said:

The Daily Record to be printed in Oldham from the spring with the loss of 100 jobs. Their political journalist Paul Hutcheon seems a bit miffed. Hopefully it'll eventually dawn on their readers independence would be a great benefit to them.

The readers (mainly Billy Brits for the nature of its biased content) will not give a stuff me thinks.

[Ally Bongo]

It remains to be seen whether 

1 - Independence voter apathy continues 

2 - The amount of women who will not vote SNP is significant 

I'd wager on both unless something remarkable happens between now and May 

It would never happen but i'd like to see Swinney going all Trump with regards the English Nationalist party but he is too much of a shitebag 

[scotlad]

6 hours ago, Hertsscot said:

Probably a fair reflection on where things are currently. I'd probably put Reform slightly higher but I don't think that's a shock to anyone. They'll certainly pick up list seats.

Alba, are a complete irrelevance and are in a far worse state than a few years back. Some Indy Purists might vote for them but it's a wasted vote.

Alba have elected sleazy yesterday's-man Tommy Sheridan as lead candidate in the Glasgow region, which won't help matters there either.

Labour should, by rights, get trounced in May but most indicators are that their core support is still turning out for them whereas the SNP's vote has eroded since the last election. Labour's entire strategy seems to be to try and make people hate the SNP rather than love Labour (which would be a fool's errand). Add to the mix a plyable media (seemingly Sarwar's fuck-up from Monday as well as the Pam Duncan-Glancy affair has already been memoryholed by BBC Jockland) and I still wouldn't write off Labour's chances of heading some cobbled-together coalition.

[hampden_loon2878]

6 hours ago, Goozay said:

Given that the last two opinion polls published by The National had Reform at 23% and 24%, Reform getting 22% in the election in May will not "shock everyone".

reform will be a hard one, there will be a lot of hidden voters in there, could end up really close with the snp

 

[TDYER63]

23 minutes ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

reform will be a hard one, there will be a lot of hidden voters in there, could end up really close with the snp

 

No wonder they are hiding who hell would want to admit they are voting for that mob. There is protest vote and there is plain lunacy. 

[Orraloon]

6 hours ago, Dangerous said:

Interesting as to how the list vote will play out. It looks like SNP will get the majority of the constituency seats but their policy of stating both votes SNP could actually scupper their chances of getting a preferred partner to form a coalition. I think they would actually prefer to work with labour (potentially Libdems) rather than anyone else but I suppose they can’t really say use vote 2 for either of those publicly. So it looks like a 2nd vote cast for SNP is a de facto vote for Reform to get list members elected. Interesting system we have - admittedly much better than for Westminster but with interesting quirks.

I think that bit is a load of bollocks. If somebody wants the SNP to win the election they should give both votes to the SNP. If they don't want SNP to win they should vote for somebody else. The only other party supporting independence are the Greens, so I can understand folk voting for them on the list if they agree with the Green Party policies. 

[hampden_loon2878]

1 hour ago, TDYER63 said:

No wonder they are hiding who hell would want to admit they are voting for that mob. There is protest vote and there is plain lunacy. 

there is a huge amount of voters that feel than successive governments have not listened to them regarding immigration, for many they feel backed into a corner, i get that although i cant vote for them 

[kumnio]

7 hours ago, Caledonian Craig said:

Precisely. Reform are getting votes from disenchanted and desperate Scottish Billy Brits. Hence Reform's vote share is up the same percentage as Labour and Conservative are down. They will vote Reform as there is nowhere else to go for them. It demonstrates the angst they have for Scottish independence that they'd rather vote for that.

Not that easy.

Sadly I know a few ardent independence voters, sorry, I couldn't have worded that any worse really, who are leaning towards Reform. Not something that I could ever comprehend, but they have some valid (to them) reasons.

[TDYER63]

30 minutes ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

there is a huge amount of voters that feel than successive governments have not listened to them regarding immigration, for many they feel backed into a corner, i get that although i cant vote for them 

Yes I know that, thats what a protest vote is. Problem is far too many are focusing their protest on one thing.
Hope they feel fully vindicated when the country returns to elitist white superiority like the good old days.  
 

[TDYER63]

31 minutes ago, kumnio said:

Not that easy.

Sadly I know a few ardent independence voters, sorry, I couldn't have worded that any worse really, who are leaning towards Reform. Not something that I could ever comprehend, but they have some valid (to them) reasons.

Have you asked them to explain how voting for Reform will bring us independence? Or are you saying they will bin independence for Reform? 

[Caledonian Craig]

18 minutes ago, TDYER63 said:

Have you asked them to explain how voting for Reform will bring us independence? Or are you saying they will bin independence for Reform? 

Exactly. A vote for Reform is the worst sort of unionist party vote. Worse even that voting Tory or Labour. 

[Hertsscot]

1 hour ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

there is a huge amount of voters that feel than successive governments have not listened to them regarding immigration, for many they feel backed into a corner, i get that although i cant vote for them 

Immigration is definitely an issue but I do think it has been weaponised by Reform and has been a convenient scapegoat for a whole load of social and economic issues.

I think even more fundamentally there are a lot of voters who feel their lives are not getting better. I suspect we're going back to the economic crash of 2008 and the subsequent age of austerity.

Voters have got legitimate gripes for discontent and right to feel let down by successive Governments (which have been mostly Tory!) but Reform will not be the answer. 

[kumnio]

25 minutes ago, TDYER63 said:

Have you asked them to explain how voting for Reform will bring us independence? Or are you saying they will bin independence for Reform? 

They will always be pro independence. 2 of them think 1 term of Reform in the UK might be a good thing, 3 of them think SNP have fucked independence for decades, so they've nothing to lose.

One is a solid Labour voter, but for independence. He is sick of the way things are for various reasons. 

Another is a SNP voter with a pinched nose, really disliked Salmond/Sturgeon and couldn't see past them stupidly, but voted SNP as a means to an end.

Lastly was an SNP activist, did a lot of miles in 2014, but thinks the SNP have fucked up over the last decade and is sick of them.

In all honesty, I will be voting SNP as we desperately need independence, but can accept and understand why people have become a bit tired of them, although I will never understand voting for Reform, to me that's absolute insanity, but everyone is different. I

[kumnio]

We've pretty much had austerity for two decades. People are massively fucked off.

An incredibly stupid vote for Reform seems like a change against the decades of failure of Tory and Labour . I think we are all fucked, the worst thing is that sadly we (UK🤮) have done it to ourself.

[TDYER63]

32 minutes ago, kumnio said:

They will always be pro independence. 2 of them think 1 term of Reform in the UK might be a good thing, 3 of them think SNP have fucked independence for decades, so they've nothing to lose.

One is a solid Labour voter, but for independence. He is sick of the way things are for various reasons. 

Another is a SNP voter with a pinched nose, really disliked Salmond/Sturgeon and couldn't see past them stupidly, but voted SNP as a means to an end.

Lastly was an SNP activist, did a lot of miles in 2014, but thinks the SNP have fucked up over the last decade and is sick of them.

In all honesty, I will be voting SNP as we desperately need independence, but can accept and understand why people have become a bit tired of them, although I will never understand voting for Reform, to me that's absolute insanity, but everyone is different. I

Thanks. 

I totally get that folk feel pissed off and there is a sort of logic to thinking that 1 term of Reform might be a good thing. However there is way too much of a risk IMO, England is eating out of Farages hand and the electorate have been known to take far too long to punt a government , even when things are not improving . 

I am pretty much of your mindset . There is no other party that will bring even a sniff of independence so I will continue to vote SNP. Doesn’t mean I am a super fan though. And despite not agreeing with Loon on a number of things I do respect the fact he is sidelining an issue that he feels strongly about, for the bigger picture . 

Edited February 11 by TDYER63

[exile]

Anyone know what's happening to Alba party? Tommy Sheridan aside. It seems they are imploding with infighting, and not likely to get a seat.

'Your Party' seem to have voted to back independence, and to plan a transition to a separate Scottish party. And it seems they will be standing candidates at Holyrood. 

[hampden_loon2878]

2 hours ago, TDYER63 said:

Yes I know that, thats what a protest vote is. Problem is far too many are focusing their protest on one thing.
Hope they feel fully vindicated when the country returns to elitist white superiority like the good old days.  
 

What is actually wrong with wanting your historically “white country” remaining majority white?  

Edited February 11 by hampden_loon2878

[hampden_loon2878]

2 hours ago, Hertsscot said:

Immigration is definitely an issue but I do think it has been weaponised by Reform and has been a convenient scapegoat for a whole load of social and economic issues.

I think even more fundamentally there are a lot of voters who feel their lives are not getting better. I suspect we're going back to the economic crash of 2008 and the subsequent age of austerity.

Voters have got legitimate gripes for discontent and right to feel let down by successive Governments (which have been mostly Tory!) but Reform will not be the answer. 

To me there is only two issues that really matter in the uk, fertility rates and mass migration.  The lack of foresight is bizarre 

[Hertsscot]

2 hours ago, kumnio said:

We've pretty much had austerity for two decades. People are massively fucked off.

An incredibly stupid vote for Reform seems like a change against the decades of failure of Tory and Labour . I think we are all fucked, the worst thing is that sadly we (UK🤮) have done it to ourself.

I really don't think Reform will improve people's standards of living. They claim they'll cut £millions from council or government spending but they had a Councillor just last week who quit the party because there just aren't that many efficiency savings to be made. 

Similarly lots of their councils in England are raising Council tax by 5% or so in order to provide services.

All of this unsurprisingly from a party led by a charlatan who promised massive economic benefits from leaving the EU.