Qualification in 3rd Place

[Craig Fae Hamilton]

15 minutes ago, AlfieMoon said:

Just starting to look a bit more into the logistics of the possibilities of finishing in 3rd place. 

One of the challenges is going to be that (if we finish 3rd) after our Brazil match on 24th June, we presumably won’t know the final outcome until the evening of 27th June when all group games conclude. 
 

If we ended up in the Boston game (29th June), that’s only 36hrs notice for fans which is a struggle if you’ve not gambled on traveling back north. The game in NY/NJ is a day later (30th June) but chances of ending up in that game are very small odds as previously discussed. 
 

The Mexico City game is also a day later (30th June) but obviously way more out of the way as a venue. 

Not easy for planning. 

100% Alfie. I factored in the increased cost of last minute travel and accomodation and quickly realised that if I left booking until after we had qualified for the KO's. I would not be able to afford it anyway.

So for me it was simple, look for our most likely qualification route, book that and hope for the best.

Boston was our best bet. It has the added bonus that for finishing 2nd, the QF would also be in Boston. And for 1st in the Group, the Last 32 is NY. Add to that, we head to Toronto to visit family and fly back from Toronto on 10th July. But Boston is the DREAM QUALIFICATION ROUTE. Last 32=Boston, Last 16= Phille and QF-Boston

In the unlikely event we go to NY for Last 32, it is also Phile and Boston for Last 16 and QF.

[GLOSTA]

Hace got a return flight back from New York on 3 July, but it can be changed... or more likely I will wave goodbye to my wife at JFK and head to the next game... her plan, not mine! 😀

Edited February 1 by GLOSTA
typo

[AlfieMoon]

Just seen this site posted on Reddit: 

https://gabrielweinberg.com/p/simulating-likely-2026-world-cup

There’s a fair bit of scrolling through it to be done but the upshot is that the highest probability for us for R32 is vs Mexico in Mexico City. 
 

Don’t have a clue how the modelling works but it’s an interesting stat considering there are far more permutations that would have us in Boston rather than Mexico. 

This modelling actually gives us better chance of being involved in Mexico, Monterrey, or NY/NJ all more than the Boston game. Surprising given there’s only 2/495 permutations that would have us in NY/NJ. 

[Craig Fae Hamilton]

13 hours ago, AlfieMoon said:

Just seen this site posted on Reddit: 

https://gabrielweinberg.com/p/simulating-likely-2026-world-cup

There’s a fair bit of scrolling through it to be done but the upshot is that the highest probability for us for R32 is vs Mexico in Mexico City. 
 

Don’t have a clue how the modelling works but it’s an interesting stat considering there are far more permutations that would have us in Boston rather than Mexico. 

This modelling actually gives us better chance of being involved in Mexico, Monterrey, or NY/NJ all more than the Boston game. Surprising given there’s only 2/495 permutations that would have us in NY/NJ. 

Best predictor tool I have saw is this one. That's what I will be using when we get underway.

https://theworldcupguide.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/bracket-13.html

He appears to be predicting based on there being ZERO Draws in the Sim above? If I read this correctly:

• Use the Elo formulas to probabilistically predict winners (assuming no draws, even in group stage)

[Craig Fae Hamilton]

This is another good predictor for inserting scores. Combine it with the one above to see where we end up. I just done it and Scotland ebded up with Norway in NY in the Last 32:

https://ultra.zone/2026-FIFA-World-Cup-Group-Stage#group=l

[Craig Fae Hamilton]

If anybody is taking a punt on Scotland Progressing in 3rd place then 70% chance we will be in Boston.

Reasonably priced flights have just appeared on JetBlue for around £180 from FLL to Boston on the 28th June (5.23PM Dep[arture). Also think there are a few cheaper if you can travel the day before.

Finishing 1st I discounted. Although with our luck.......

Finishing 2nd is Monterrey. I ain't going to Mexico......

Finishing 3rd, 29% chance it's Mexico City 1% chance NY and the BOS flight is still good. 70% chance we play Germany in Boston (if they win group)