Qualification in 3rd Place

[Toepoke]

19 hours ago, Orraloon said:

Is that the one where India withdrew because FIFA wouldn't let them play in bare feet?

Possibly, but possibly not.

Another example of SFA penny pinching hampering Scotland though 🫤

From Wikipedia...

Before the qualification competition, George Graham, chairman of the Scottish Football Association (SFA), had said that Scotland would only travel to Brazil as winners of the Home Championship (England, by contrast, had committed to attending, even if they finished in second place). After Scotland ended up in second place behind England, the Scottish captain George Young, encouraged by England captain Billy Wright, pleaded with the SFA to change its mind and accept the place in Brazil; however, Graham refused to change his position and so Scotland withdrew from the tournament.

Turkey also withdrew, citing financial conditions that included the cost of travelling to South America. FIFA invited Portugal, Republic of Ireland and France, who had been eliminated in qualifying, to fill the gaps left by Scotland and Turkey. Portugal and Republic of Ireland refused, but France initially accepted and was entered into the draw.

After the draw, the Indian football association, All India Football Federation (AIFF) decided against going to the World Cup, citing travel costs (although FIFA had agreed to bear a major part of the travel expenses), lack of practice time, team selection issues, and valuing the Olympics over the FIFA World Cup. Although FIFA had imposed a rule banning barefoot play following the 1948 Summer Olympics, where India had played barefoot, the Indian captain at the time, Sailen Manna, claimed that this was not part of the AIFF's decision. According to Indian sports journalist Jaydeep Basu, India did not participate because the AIFF did not have confidence in its players.

France also withdrew, citing the amount of travel that would be required between the venues of the Group 4 matches. There was not enough time to invite further replacement teams or to reorganise the groups, so the tournament featured only thirteen teams, with just three nations in Group 3 and two nations in Group 4.

[Scotty CTA]

On 12/21/2025 at 2:57 AM, Craig Fae Hamilton said:

I had to go and check, and WOW............just fucking WOW!

I never knew only 16 teams participated in the Finals. AMAZED! 

And Scotland was the only undefeated team of the tournament in '74.

[Craig Fae Hamilton]

6 hours ago, Scotty CTA said:

And Scotland was the only undefeated team of the tournament in '74.

lol, born in 74, but, I knew that one.

[Rich NATA]

On 12/19/2025 at 3:28 PM, Grim Jim said:

Anyone giving the group games a miss and heading over for knockouts?

The glory hunter in me was thinking about it (for two rounds)😐

A bit of me is wishing I did.   Cheaper (apart from tickets) and easier to travel?

I'm thinking about changing my application; dropping Haiti and staying for the 2nd round.

[scottish and proud]

48 minutes ago, Rich NATA said:

I'm thinking about changing my application; dropping Haiti and staying for the 2nd round.

In my opinion it’s only worth planning for the second round if you can do it on top of the 3 group games. Hype and atmosphere will be at a peak at the start of the tournament and our qualification is by no means a sure thing. 

[sultan_of_arabia]

I feel like a moron trying to work out where we would play if we finish 3rd. Limitations of AI clearly highlighted by this too.

I'm thinking book flights back today and planned to from Boston on the 30th but now not sure if I should try back from NYC on the 1st in case we end up playing there on the 30th. That way I could potentially go to either the Boston or New York last 32 match.

Where does this belief come from that we would likely play in Boston though. My understanding is that if a team finishes 3rd and qualifies from group A they will play in the Boston match if not then it's group B and only then it would be us. Highest likelihood for us is therefore playing in new York on the 30th as that match is v 3rd place in group C D F G H.

[Ally Bongo]

1 minute ago, sultan_of_arabia said:

I feel like a moron trying to work out where we would play if we finish 3rd. Limitations of AI clearly highlighted by this too.

 

I dont think its the permutations that are making you feel stoopid ......

 

[AlfieMoon]

58 minutes ago, sultan_of_arabia said:

I feel like a moron trying to work out where we would play if we finish 3rd. Limitations of AI clearly highlighted by this too.

I'm thinking book flights back today and planned to from Boston on the 30th but now not sure if I should try back from NYC on the 1st in case we end up playing there on the 30th. That way I could potentially go to either the Boston or New York last 32 match.

Where does this belief come from that we would likely play in Boston though. My understanding is that if a team finishes 3rd and qualifies from group A they will play in the Boston match if not then it's group B and only then it would be us. Highest likelihood for us is therefore playing in new York on the 30th as that match is v 3rd place in group C D F G H.

There are 495 possible permutations of 3rd place teams - basically all the different combinations of the 8 of the 12 groups that could make it into top positions of the table for qualifying in 3rd place. 
 

Out of those 495 permutations, only 330 of them contain group C team. 
 

Every possible permutation (of the 8 qualifying team) is already pre-mapped to specific matches. 
 

Out of the 330 permutations for Scotland  it basically works out that 70% (231/330) of those would have us in Boston, 29% (97/330) for the match in Mexico City, and only 0.6% (2/330) of the possible combinations would result in us playing in the match in NY. 
 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Template:2026_FIFA_World_Cup_third-place_table

[Scotty CTA]

^^^^^^^^^^^

Good one!

[Doon the Watter]

Couldn't be arsed with the qualifying 3 permutation, that's why I booked a Monterrey hotel because that's where we'll be after hammering Haiti and Morocco and our score draw wi' Brazil. Finishing 2nd on goal difference only. If we hadnae missed the penalties in the Haiti and Morocco games we would have finished tap o' the group.

Ach well... Monterrey it is. Refundable hotel of course 😊

[AlfieMoon]

8 minutes ago, Doon the Watter said:

Couldn't be arsed with the qualifying 3 permutation, that's why I booked a Monterrey hotel because that's where we'll be after hammering Haiti and Morocco and our score draw wi' Brazil. Finishing 2nd on goal difference only. If we hadnae missed the penalties in the Haiti and Morocco games we would have finished tap o' the group.

Ach well... Monterrey it is. Refundable hotel of course 😊

I’m kinda hoping the Brazilians go easy on us and let us top the group in the final game. 
 

Quite fancy a wee road trip up from Miami and round to Houston with a stop off in New Orleans. 😬

[bdgsct]

11 hours ago, AlfieMoon said:

I’m kinda hoping the Brazilians go easy on us and let us top the group in the final game. 
 

Quite fancy a wee road trip up from Miami and round to Houston with a stop off in New Orleans. 😬

The Brazil game against Morrocco is huge for us. I'd give Morrocco every chance but if Brazil win, they will almost certainly play the reserves against us after beating Haiti. Extended format means that is the only opportunity to rest players which they will surely take.

[AlfieMoon]

53 minutes ago, bdgsct said:

The Brazil game against Morrocco is huge for us. I'd give Morrocco every chance but if Brazil win, they will almost certainly play the reserves against us after beating Haiti. Extended format means that is the only opportunity to rest players which they will surely take.

Very much depends on the knock out path for those big teams - if they get into position of having taken care of business in first 2 games, sometimes funny results happen in the final group game depending on what looks a better path for them. 
 

Anyways … I’m largely talking in jest as not taking anything for granted. 1st game is absolutely massive for us and then sets up another monumental game against Morocco. 

[bdgsct]

On 12/26/2025 at 3:20 PM, AlfieMoon said:

There are 495 possible permutations of 3rd place teams - basically all the different combinations of the 8 of the 12 groups that could make it into top positions of the table for qualifying in 3rd place. 
 

Out of those 495 permutations, only 330 of them contain group C team. 
 

Every possible permutation (of the 8 qualifying team) is already pre-mapped to specific matches. 
 

Out of the 330 permutations for Scotland  it basically works out that 70% (231/330) of those would have us in Boston, 29% (97/330) for the match in Mexico City, and only 0.6% (2/330) of the possible combinations would result in us playing in the match in NY. 
 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Template:2026_FIFA_World_Cup_third-place_table

Asked this on another thread but this one is more relevant. Do we know why such a high proportion of the permutations have us in Boston (match 74) if finishing 3rd?

Match 74 has ABCDF as the third place group options. What does this actually mean? I don't think it means if ABDF also finish as best 8 3rd place finishers. Match 77 for example has DFGH so feasibly ABCDFGH could all finish as best 8 3rd place.

 

[bdgsct]

AI answer below,

The exact third-place team that faces the Group E winner is determined by a complex system of tiebreakers and bracket balancing to ensure geographical constraints and competitive fairness are met after all group matches are completed. 

[wee_ando]

6 minutes ago, bdgsct said:

Asked this on another thread but this one is more relevant. Do we know why such a high proportion of the permutations have us in Boston (match 74) if finishing 3rd?

Match 74 has ABCDF as the third place group options. What does this actually mean? I don't think it means if ABDF also finish as best 8 3rd place finishers. Match 77 for example has DFGH so feasibly ABCDFGH could all finish as best 8 3rd place.

 

It means 3rd place from one of those groups. If we finish 3rd, we can only play in one of the matches that specifies our group. The higher likelihood of being in Boston is purely mathematical, it doesn’t take into account how the groups are likely to finish (eg we would discount Germany England France etc finishing bottom, those percentages are for every possibility). Also FIFA’s seeding path and whatever other restrictions they make up…

[AlfieMoon]

42 minutes ago, bdgsct said:

Asked this on another thread but this one is more relevant. Do we know why such a high proportion of the permutations have us in Boston (match 74) if finishing 3rd?

Match 74 has ABCDF as the third place group options. What does this actually mean? I don't think it means if ABDF also finish as best 8 3rd place finishers. Match 77 for example has DFGH so feasibly ABCDFGH could all finish as best 8 3rd place.

 

The wiki link I posted will show a table of all 495 permutations. That represents every possible combination of top 8 finishers.
 

Every single one of those 495 combos has group letter/team already mapped to a fixture/location.

Only 330 can include a Group C permutation. It’s just the breakdown of the 330 that means ~70% of those combinations are all mapped to the game in Boston.

 

 

Edited January 26 by AlfieMoon

[bdgsct]

54 minutes ago, AlfieMoon said:

The wiki link I posted will show a table of all 495 permutations. That represents every possible combination of top 8 finishers.
 

Every single one of those 495 combos has group letter/team already mapped to a fixture/location.

Only 330 can include a Group C permutation. It’s just the breakdown of the 330 that means ~70% of those combinations are all mapped to the game in Boston.

 

 

Thanks, the table makes it easier to follow. Looking at the permutations. If group D or F fail to have a best 3rd place finisher we are almost certain to be in Boston. Given that these are both likely to be competitive groups, I'd say it is much higher than 70% that we will be in Boston if we finish 3rd.

[Craig Fae Hamilton]

When booking our trip I went with the original 70% chance and booked a flight back to there from Boston. Sad to say, but finishing 1st in Group is a little too unlikely to plan on. Finsishing 2nd and game is in Mexico which I woukd not go to anyway.

70% Chance Boston and 0.6% New York is what I am pinning my hopes on.

[bdgsct]

On 1/26/2026 at 11:21 AM, Craig Fae Hamilton said:

When booking our trip I went with the original 70% chance and booked a flight back to there from Boston. Sad to say, but finishing 1st in Group is a little too unlikely to plan on. Finsishing 2nd and game is in Mexico which I woukd not go to anyway.

70% Chance Boston and 0.6% New York is what I am pinning my hopes on.

Best hope is draws in the games in groups D and F to confirm Boston. It's probably not going to be a very clear picture until after our second game. I'm hoping to stay out if possble but many factors at play.

[Craig Fae Hamilton]

@bdgsctWe are staying, 100%. Hopefully see you in Boston then Phille!

Is the reason for lots of Draws in Groups D and F so that those teams don't take up a 3rd placed finish spot?

There is a really cool site to track our chances and where we would end up playing for a 3rd placed finish. Here is the link for you to try it out, you can't put Scores in but it allows you to select the Grups providing the 8 3rd placed qualifiers:

https://theworldcupguide.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/bracket-13.html

 

Edited January 27 by Craig Fae Hamilton

[Craig Fae Hamilton]

Okay, I am using AI for Predictions here and will then put it into the Predictor with Scotland as one of those teams.

 

GEMINI: Based on recent 2026 World Cup draw analysis and statistical simulations, the eight groups most likely to provide qualifying third-placed teams are Groups A, B, C, D, F, H, I, and J. These groups are highlighted by analysts as having the highest concentration of competitive "middle-tier" teams capable of securing the 3–4 points typically required to advance as a best third-place finisher.

 

GROK: Is predicting Scotland won't be a best placed 3rd Team! For Scotland fans in Group C (Brazil/Morocco/Haiti/Scotland), your group isn't on this list because the quality gap after Brazil/Morocco is quite large — thirds there might struggle for points even more than in Group G. Fingers crossed for a gritty campaign! As such, for the purposes of Predicting I will replace Group G with our Group. Actual prediction is below, I am using Groups C, E, F, H, I, J, K, L. Which is way different to the above!

It's the same outcome!

1. Group I (France, Senegal, Norway, Inter-Confederation Playoff Winner 2 — likely Iraq/Bolivia/Suriname)
   Widely regarded as the toughest overall (often called the modern-era "Group of Death" despite the format). France's depth, Senegal's physicality, Norway's Haaland-led attack create intense battles; third place could still earn 4–6 points with solid GD from competitive games.
2. Group L (England, Croatia, Ghana, Panama)
   Strong top-to-bottom with England's consistency, Croatia's experience, and Ghana's talent. No major mismatches mean tight results; third likely has respectable stats and high odds for best-third qualification.
3. Group F (Netherlands, Japan, Tunisia, UEFA Playoff B Winner — e.g., potential Ukraine/Poland/etc.)
   Balanced mid-to-high quality across the board. Expect close contests and points shared around; third-place team often ends up with 4+ points and positive GD in predictions.
4. Group E (Germany, potential strong sides like Costa Rica/Japan elements in some breakdowns, but depth noted)
   Germany headlining with solid challengers; competitive enough for a strong third.
5. Group J (Often features Argentina + high-rated depth in analyses)
   High average strength; third could benefit from beating weaker elements while holding firm against top teams.
6. Group G (Belgium, Egypt, Iran, New Zealand)
   Mid-tier depth with Belgium strong; potential for decent third-place records if matches are tight.
7. Group H (Portugal/Spain elements in some pots, noted competitive in predictions)
   Sneaky strong with quality drop-off not too steep.
8. Group K (Uruguay or similar high-pot matchups in draw analyses)
   Frequently highlighted for balance and potential high-ranking thirds.

These predictions draw from consensus across sources like ESPN, Sporting News, The Athletic, SI, and Opta-style rankings post-draw. Groups with steeper mismatches (e.g., A with Mexico + weaker sides, C with Brazil but gaps to Haiti/Scotland, B/D with hosts + easier paths) are less likely to yield top-tier thirds due to lower points totals for third place.As a Scotland supporter in Group C, a solid performance (e.g., points against Morocco/Haiti, competitive vs. Brazil) could still land a decent third-place tally—but it'll be an uphill battle compared to the deeper groups above. Once the tournament kicks off in June, results will decide, but these 8 groups have the best pre-tournament setups for strong thirds!

Which of those is least likely?

 

Among the 8 groups I previously predicted as most likely to produce strong third-placed teams (i.e., those with the best odds of ranking in the top 8 thirds and advancing), the one least likely — meaning the one where the third-placed team would probably have the lowest points, goal difference, or overall stats compared to thirds from the other seven — is Group G (Belgium, Egypt, Iran, New Zealand).Here's why, based on post-draw analyses and group strength consensus:

• Group G has solid mid-tier talent at the top (Belgium remains a high-quality side with experienced players), but there's a steeper drop-off after the top 1–2 teams. Egypt is strong in African competitions, Iran is consistently gritty, but New Zealand (Oceania's rep) is the clear weakest link in most projections — often seen as the easiest matchup for the others. This mismatch means the third-placed team might rack up fewer points or worse GD than in deeper groups, as wins/draws against the bottom side are expected, but points from the top battles are harder to come by without the same level of parity.
• In contrast, the other groups on my list (especially I, L, F, E, J) feature more balanced or multiple high-quality teams, leading to tighter points distributions where thirds can still earn 4–6 points with competitive GD (e.g., from draws against strong sides or big wins over the fourth team).
• Sources like Opta Power Rankings, The Athletic, ESPN, and USA Today post-draw breakdowns often rank Group G lower in overall competitiveness or "death" potential compared to Groups I (France/Senegal/Norway), L (England/Croatia/Ghana/Panama), F (Netherlands/Japan/Tunisia + playoff), etc. It's not a "weak" group per se, but the least deep among my top 8 picks for strong thirds.

If the playoff winners shake things up (though New Zealand is fixed as OFC winner), or if there's an upset-heavy group stage, this could change — but pre-tournament, Group G's third is the riskiest bet among those 8 for making the top 8 thirds.For Scotland fans in Group C (Brazil/Morocco/Haiti/Scotland), your group isn't on this list because the quality gap after Brazil/Morocco is quite large — thirds there might struggle for points even more than in Group G. Fingers crossed for a gritty campaign!

 

 

 

[bdgsct]

1 hour ago, Craig Fae Hamilton said:

Is the reason for lots of Draws in Groups D and F so that those teams don't take up a 3rd placed finish spot?

Yeah, if either don't have a third place qualifier then we are almost certain to be in Boston. Draws generally help that. 

 

[AlfieMoon]

Just starting to look a bit more into the logistics of the possibilities of finishing in 3rd place. 

One of the challenges is going to be that (if we finish 3rd) after our Brazil match on 24th June, we presumably won’t know the final outcome until the evening of 27th June when all group games conclude. 
 

If we ended up in the Boston game (29th June), that’s only 36hrs notice for fans which is a struggle if you’ve not gambled on traveling back north. The game in NY/NJ is a day later (30th June) but chances of ending up in that game are very small odds as previously discussed. 
 

The Mexico City game is also a day later (30th June) but obviously way more out of the way as a venue. 

Not easy for planning. 

[bdgsct]

25 minutes ago, AlfieMoon said:

Just starting to look a bit more into the logistics of the possibilities of finishing in 3rd place. 

One of the challenges is going to be that (if we finish 3rd) after our Brazil match on 24th June, we presumably won’t know the final outcome until the evening of 27th June when all group games conclude. 
 

If we ended up in the Boston game (29th June), that’s only 36hrs notice for fans which is a struggle if you’ve not gambled on traveling back north. The game in NY/NJ is a day later (30th June) but chances of ending up in that game are very small odds as previously discussed. 
 

The Mexico City game is also a day later (30th June) but obviously way more out of the way as a venue. 

Not easy for planning. 

Yeah, looked at that the other day too. I've not yet booked boston-miami. If the return is not much more expensive I'll book that at the same time. Otherwise wait until after the Morrocco game which should give us a decent idea if we are in the mix for third. The results in other groups might provide some indication on the likely threshold for best 8 third places. Incidently I'm not convinced Germany will win group E, Ecuador look pretty solid.