Our World Cup Group chat ! 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿

[Third Lanark]

16 hours ago, er yir macaroon said:

It was obvious watching Igamane that he had the potential to take his game to a much higher level. He's doing that in France now and is supposedly attracting interest from the big Spanish clubs. He's a worry, for sure. 

I've looked at the teams Morocco played in their last 12 games and it includes then likes of Uganda, Zambia etc. Surely these teams are not comparable to the big Euro heavyeights? I cannot quite see why many on here fear them so much.

[Third Lanark]

What result is best for us between Brazil and Morocco? A draw? We don't want Brazil with anything to play for when they meet us.

[Orraloon]

16 hours ago, exile said:

Time of day in USA may matter more for the players?

Aye, that's more important to me. Although it could still be very warm at 1800 USA time. I would have preferred them all to be at 0200 Scotland time. 

[Orraloon]

20 minutes ago, Third Lanark said:

What result is best for us between Brazil and Morocco? A draw? We don't want Brazil with anything to play for when they meet us.

That depends on whether we are looking to win the group or just get through to the next round. 

[er yir macaroon]

1 hour ago, Third Lanark said:

I've looked at the teams Morocco played in their last 12 games and it includes then likes of Uganda, Zambia etc. Surely these teams are not comparable to the big Euro heavyeights? I cannot quite see why many on here fear them so much.

Well Igamane is now at a level of performance much higher than our strikers. He will continue to improve in the next 6 months. I don't know much about the rest, but no doubt many will play in the French league.

I still remember the absolute hiding they gave us in 98. We can beat them but it will be difficult. 

[mccaughey85]

 

Three points might be enough going by this data analysis.

[er yir macaroon]

2 hours ago, mccaughey85 said:

 

Three points might be enough going by this data analysis.

Only 1 out of 12 got less than three.

[mccaughey85]

1 hour ago, er yir macaroon said:

Only 1 out of 12 got less than three.

I am guessing they have counted the Senegal, Panama and Egypt as having 3 points. 

Saying that I was confused by that as well. Even if they rounded the scores up then the only team qualifying with three points would be Egypt.

[DoonTheSlope]

8 hours ago, Third Lanark said:

What result is best for us between Brazil and Morocco? A draw? We don't want Brazil with anything to play for when they meet us.

If we take care of business and win all our games then it won’t matter what happens elsewhere

[DoonTheSlope]

The positive thing about drawing Brazil is that if they do improve on their qualifying form then we won’t need to face them again until the final 

[Clyde1998]

5 hours ago, mccaughey85 said:

I am guessing they have counted the Senegal, Panama and Egypt as having 3 points. 

Saying that I was confused by that as well. Even if they rounded the scores up then the only team qualifying with three points would be Egypt.

It's because it's an average.

So if we had ten instances of the group and we got 0; 1; 2; 3; 3; 3; 4; 4; 6; and 9 points - the average would be 3.5 points, despite us being at three points or below more than half of the time.

The odd instance of us getting a big points haul pushes the average up more than us getting a low points haul pushes the average down.

[Malcolm]

haiti will not be pushovers.  They have players playing in some top leagues for clubs like aek Athens and Sunderland. 

[Ally Bongo]

 

[Caledonian Craig]

2 hours ago, Malcolm said:

haiti will not be pushovers.  They have players playing in some top leagues for clubs like aek Athens and Sunderland. 

No they won't be but man for man we have a far stronger squad and far more big match experience than them. We have to be targeting a win against them.

[mccaughey85]

8 hours ago, Clyde1998 said:

It's because it's an average.

So if we had ten instances of the group and we got 0; 1; 2; 3; 3; 3; 4; 4; 6; and 9 points - the average would be 3.5 points, despite us being at three points or below more than half of the time.

The odd instance of us getting a big points haul pushes the average up more than us getting a low points haul pushes the average down.

Yeh I guessed it's because of that but still wasn't sure of how to interpret it in terms of actual likelihood of qualifying with 3 points. 

[mccaughey85]

8 hours ago, Clyde1998 said:

It's because it's an average.

So if we had ten instances of the group and we got 0; 1; 2; 3; 3; 3; 4; 4; 6; and 9 points - the average would be 3.5 points, despite us being at three points or below more than half of the time.

The odd instance of us getting a big points haul pushes the average up more than us getting a low points haul pushes the average down.

Heres a world cup simulator.

https://worldcupsimulator.com/tournament.html?autoSimulate=true

Every time I run it theres usually between 3 and 5 teams qualifying with 3 points for the knockout stage. Quite often theres 6 teams qualifying with 3 points.

If you run the simulator and then scroll down you can see the third place qualifiers in a table. I have ran it heaps as well.

Not sure how accurate or realistic the simulator is so that should maybe be taken into account.

Edited December 8, 2025 by mccaughey85

[vanderark14]

1 hour ago, Ally Bongo said:

 

100% spot on

[Malcolm]

9 hours ago, Caledonian Craig said:

No they won't be but man for man we have a far stronger squad and far more big match experience than them. We have to be targeting a win against them.

totaly agree, we need a win against the weakest team and it might be a narrow win.

being thr first game when things are tentative I think this will be tougher than many think. 

[Malcolm]

11 hours ago, vanderark14 said:

100% spot on

completely agree.  
 

I know it’s a great achievement to get to a World Cup, but back in Argentina there were only 16 teams, there’s now 48.  Getting out the group on three points will feel like fraud if it happens.

[Toepoke]

18 minutes ago, Malcolm said:

I know it’s a great achievement to get to a World Cup, but back in Argentina there were only 16 teams, there’s now 48.  Getting out the group on three points will feel like fraud if it happens.

I'd bite your hand off for that fraudulent qualification!

Yes we have reached the last 16 of the World Cup before, but it was a different sport 50 years and more ago. The game is massively stronger globally now.

[bdgsct]

53 minutes ago, Malcolm said:

completely agree.  
 

I know it’s a great achievement to get to a World Cup, but back in Argentina there were only 16 teams, there’s now 48.  Getting out the group on three points will feel like fraud if it happens.

Agree, getting to world cup via European qualifying these days is a much better achievement than beating Haiti.

[vanderark14]

8 hours ago, Malcolm said:

completely agree.  
 

I know it’s a great achievement to get to a World Cup, but back in Argentina there were only 16 teams, there’s now 48.  Getting out the group on three points will feel like fraud if it happens.

Not sure what point you are making

in 1978 Scotland had a group of 3 and the total teams participating in the UEFA qualifiers was 31. in 2026 there were 54. As Toepoke said, the game is totally different now, there are more teams and a lot of those teams are much stronger too

[ThistleWhistle]

1 hour ago, vanderark14 said:

Not sure what point you are making

in 1978 Scotland had a group of 3 and the total teams participating in the UEFA qualifiers was 31. in 2026 there were 54. As Toepoke said, the game is totally different now, there are more teams and a lot of those teams are much stronger too

In 78 had to top a group including Czechoslovakia who won the previous Euros.  Italy topped their group to knock England out.  

Looking back the smaller nations had to beat a heavyweight to get one of the ten spots.  There may only have been 31 teams but that included Czechoslovakia, Yugoslavia and USSR who regularly made tournaments.  Of the breakaway sides there’s only Croatia close to their records.  

Of the additional teams there’s a lot of fodder tricky in an away game but not directly competing for a spot.  In terms of the 16 spots this time there’s probably Germany, Spain, England, France, Netherlands, Portugal (and Italy usually) who you’d always expect to be there so there’s 9 spots for the best of the rest really.  In 78 there’d have been one or two tops.  

Edited December 9, 2025 by ThistleWhistle

[mccaughey85]

Has anyone had a go on that simulator I posted.

I have been clicking the thing hundreds of times and it's pretty clear that if we get 3 points we will probably qualify for the knockout stages.

I would say at least 80% of the simulations I have tried where we get 3 points we go through to the last 32. 

The simulator usually has us in third place as well and we usually get knocked out of the last 32 so I would say it's pretty realistic. 

We beat Haiti and avoid heavy defeats against Morocco and Brazil and its likely we go through.

[biffer]

In 1978 there were 107 countries that entered qualifying for the World Cup. 

In 2026 there were 206.