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What happens to Alba on Friday?


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In reference to Ally Bongo's thread and for those who are sympathetic. I just wonder where that does leave Alba. No MPs and one MSP who wasn't elected on the party ticket. Does that leave you confident for the next Holyrood elections, there's obviously been no breakthrough as expected because of FPTP but really poor vote share nationally.

I'm not interested in slagging Alba off or blaming them for SNPs poor performance, just interested in where Alba are going.

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1 hour ago, Hertsscot said:

In reference to Ally Bongo's thread and for those who are sympathetic. I just wonder where that does leave Alba. No MPs and one MSP who wasn't elected on the party ticket. Does that leave you confident for the next Holyrood elections, there's obviously been no breakthrough as expected because of FPTP but really poor vote share nationally.

I'm not interested in slagging Alba off or blaming them for SNPs poor performance, just interested in where Alba are going.

Well that's the thing. 

I mean the majority of us that post here are independence supporters. The SNP have had a disastrous night but former SNP voters have chosen not to vote Alba seemingly. That must worry Salmond greatly. It is also a worry to me that more have chosen to vote for a party with openly racist candidates in the form of Reform above them.

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Posted (edited)

Think the next Scottish election will make or break them being honest - they'll either break through or disappear as Salmond retires.  

It's a double edged sword as the Tories have suffered from a protest vote to Labour to a degree and Reform.  From their voters perspective it's good they've that option plus for the more right of the party there is now a credible threat that the Conservatives need to deal with so it can correct how they're viewed strategically.    

The shit with Alba and SNP has essentially made Alba toxic  - both can point fingers at each other but that's essentially it.  Consequently the protest vote for the SNP may have been some defecting to Labour but wouldn't be surprised if the majority was folk who just couldn't be arsed and stayed at home.  It would be far more productive if there was a second party who could hold them to account where a protest vote wouldn't be as counter-productive but we are where we are.    

Edited by ThistleWhistle
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13 minutes ago, Hertsscot said:

I was genuinely surprised how badly they did.

Maybe within independence circles they are big hitters, but in the wider political and media environment, especially at UK level, they don't register very much. True, Alex Salmond gets some airtime on political shows but it's almost as if he is there to give a colourful 'contrarian' view - like wheeling out ex policiticans like Sillars - that they'd do whether or not Alba existed. So while there was much indy talk of what Alba might do, and talk of splitting the indy vote, as far as I can see both SNP and Alba did so poorly that the amount of votes Alba got would hardly make a dent in the typically healthy Labour majorities (though I haven't seen all the results).

Also in indy circles there are those who avocated abstaining as a political act of principle, and while that's a principled stance, it's probably dwarfed by people just not bothering to turn up. It's those 'apolitical' abstainers who seem to have been lost to the cause, though they may still register as 'Yes, if there was a referendum tomorrow'.

But I don't think it's any clearer what the path to independence is.

All I can say for now is that I can't help thinking if this had been run as a de facto referendum, then indy could have got a higher vote share than 35%, though it's still not certain if the British state would recognise a 51% share as a mandate for secession.

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1 hour ago, ThistleWhistle said:

Think the next Scottish election will make or break them being honest - they'll either break through or disappear as Salmond retires.  

Sounds about right. I think it will be the first real opportunity to judge them. 

They formed too late last time for Holyrood and were then starved of any media.

Then in this UK election many ALBA voters were openly stating their intent to vote tactically against the SNP, recognizing that ALBA could not inflict any damage.

Holyrood next time is the acid test.

 

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3 hours ago, exile said:

 

All I can say for now is that I can't help thinking if this had been run as a de facto referendum, then indy could have got a higher vote share than 35%, though it's still not certain if the British state would recognise a 51% share as a mandate for secession.

I'm 100% certain they would not have recognised it as a mandate for indy negotiations. However, i think they probably would have accepted it as a mandate for a proper legally binding indyref (like 2014 was).

I think that was Sturgeon's plan, but the defacto idea seemed to be dropped when all the Murrell-flavoured shit hit the fan

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If Alba had stuck to the single issue of independence I'd have backed them but after their members/supporters adopted the Wings Over Scotland position on the gender recognition act they now look like an over 60s reunion of neighbourhood "Karens".

They also shouldn't be pushing ex Tory-Labour-SNP member Tasmina Ahmed-Sheikh in every single media package they put out. Given Alba's current trajectory I could set up "Roasters for Indy" tomorrow and she'd be jumping over looking for 1st place on the list at 9am on Monday.

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Where do Alba go from here?

I want Alba to be the radical vanguard of the indy movement.

I want their leadership and membership willing to be arrested / be imprisoned (like the Catalans).

I want them to be identifying areas where civil disobedience can be targeted.

I want Salmond back as FM and a big bag of cans.

 

Not much to ask, is it?

 

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16 hours ago, Dave78 said:

Where do Alba go from here?

I want Alba to be the radical vanguard of the indy movement.

I want their leadership and membership willing to be arrested / be imprisoned (like the Catalans).

I want them to be identifying areas where civil disobedience can be targeted.

I want Salmond back as FM and a big bag of cans.

 

Not much to ask, is it?

 

Some good points there, not least the radical flank idea. Seen that way, maybe a problem for the SNP was it became the radical flank on one or two issues that it needn't have; they could have had the Greens as a radical flank on one side and Alba as a radical flank on the other, and the SNP would be seen as the moderate mainstream.

I'm not sure though if Alba would necessarily be the vehicle for civil disobedience etc. Salmond seems to want to recreate a conventional political party, and I don't necessarily see him one for manning the barricades or flirting with imprisonment, especially at his age.

But in any case, I'd have thought Salmond could have more to offer in a strategic role, he always seems to be thinking about the bigger picture and things like international recognition and EFTA etc, outside the box marked 'British politics'. I think the SNP or at least the independence movement needs more of that.  SNP got successful winning British elections but we see the limitations of that now, they got successful winning the British game in the short term but that is turning into a British long term.

Salmond would ideally be used for statecraft, and in the international arena his 'local difficulties' and any local unpopularity would not matter. He'd be moving in a world where politicians are 'not angels' either.

A radical flank could have been the Scottish Socialists, maybe some day they will resurrect.

Or a grassroots movement that is not confined by the rules of the British party game and gets things word of mouth not reliant on mainstream media.

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On civil disobedience though, I think things need to be proportionate, and chime with moderate opinion; if you get ahead of the electorate you may be punished for it.

I think issues like the Hoyle/Starmer Gaza thing should be more vigorously challenged and disrupted. That is a case where the rules were broken but the establishment parties got away with it. As I see it that's where civil disobedience (or its parliamentary equivalent) can bite and attract attention and sympathy. Even mild mannered unionists and middle Englanders could acknowledge they'd have a point, not just a bunch of Scots with a grievance. The international community would also take note. If they caused a parliamentary blockage for a day or two it could make the international news. Instead, probably most of the public probably not paying attention and simply think Labour want a ceasefire cos they said so and that's what is reported.

But it can be hard when sovereignty is nibbled away out of public reach. People marched for a Scottish Parliament, but when the Internal Market Bill came in to undermine devolution, there was hardly a whimper, at least from Labour, and the media. Progress takes some steps forward, and some steps back.

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6 hours ago, exile said:

On civil disobedience though, I think things need to be proportionate, and chime with moderate opinion; if you get ahead of the electorate you may be punished for it.

I think issues like the Hoyle/Starmer Gaza thing should be more vigorously challenged and disrupted. That is a case where the rules were broken but the establishment parties got away with it. As I see it that's where civil disobedience (or its parliamentary equivalent) can bite and attract attention and sympathy. Even mild mannered unionists and middle Englanders could acknowledge they'd have a point, not just a bunch of Scots with a grievance. The international community would also take note. If they caused a parliamentary blockage for a day or two it could make the international news. Instead, probably most of the public probably not paying attention and simply think Labour want a ceasefire cos they said so and that's what is reported.

But it can be hard when sovereignty is nibbled away out of public reach. People marched for a Scottish Parliament, but when the Internal Market Bill came in to undermine devolution, there was hardly a whimper, at least from Labour, and the media. Progress takes some steps forward, and some steps back.

True.

You mention the internal market bill. I think the big opportunity for some proper civil disobedience was the supreme court decision, but Sturgeon and the SNP were completely unprepared. It was Lesley Riddoch that managed to hastily arrange a protest at Holyrood (literally within hours) when the decision was handed down. According to Riddoch, Sturgeon had to be cajoled into making a speech to the crowd.

Fucking amateur hour politics from Sturgeon, and another example of her playing her cards all wrong since Brexit.

 

Thinking of civil disobedience, the only recent example of it in Scotland i can think of was 'the battle of Kenmure Street' in defence asylum seekers. Was there any during the campaign for a Scottish parliament in the 80s/90s? I was too young back then so can't remember any.

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2 hours ago, Dave78 said:

True.

You mention the internal market bill. I think the big opportunity for some proper civil disobedience was the supreme court decision, but Sturgeon and the SNP were completely unprepared. It was Lesley Riddoch that managed to hastily arrange a protest at Holyrood (literally within hours) when the decision was handed down. According to Riddoch, Sturgeon had to be cajoled into making a speech to the crowd.

Fucking amateur hour politics from Sturgeon, and another example of her playing her cards all wrong since Brexit.

 

Thinking of civil disobedience, the only recent example of it in Scotland i can think of was 'the battle of Kenmure Street' in defence asylum seekers. Was there any during the campaign for a Scottish parliament in the 80s/90s? I was too young back then so can't remember any.

Yes, the Kenmure St action was, I think, a very immediate local grassroots thing and not party political.

My memory is hazy but the internet reminds me there was a Scotland Demands Democracy march and a vigil for a Scottish Parliament on Calton Hill. "The main vigil for the Scottish Parliament was set up on Calton Hill after the General Election of 1992, with a pledge to keep it continuously occupied until a Scottish Parliament was achieved. After 1,980 days of continuous occupation its work was done." 

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9 hours ago, exile said:

On civil disobedience though, I think things need to be proportionate, and chime with moderate opinion; if you get ahead of the electorate you may be punished for it.

Battles need to be picked carefully but we may need to get to that stage if Westminster refuses even to discuss how we can leave a 'voluntary union'. Unfortunately the battles that the SNP/Scottish Government have chosen to pick in recent times have been ones where there hadn't been public support, that most people either haven't bothered about it or have been opposed to, GRR springs to mind, DRS as well.

If there was an issue that was seen as hitting ordinary folks in the pocket, then that would be the issue.

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things just aren't clicking for alba, i just get an under lying feeling that its a half hearted attempt, especially with salmond. most of them still have the snp at heart and will return to the SNP when the call comes, which may not be that far away..if alba fail to make in roads in 2026 its time for them to shut up shop and i have donated to them even though i am a snp member, Another independence party would be a good thing but getting that initial traction is the hard part

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