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What happens to the SNP on Friday


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47 minutes ago, Alibi said:

Yes, but given that the SNP rarely got list seats due to having taken so many constituency seats, there was an opportunity to get a supermajority if enough people could have been persauded to vote for an alternative pro-indy party in regions where the SNP wouldn't get list MSPs.  Basically everywhere except South of Scotland and the Highlands.

Don't know if it would still work because the SNP first vote might be lower now, and in any case the SNP would never have the imagination to do something like that.  They don't want any other pro indy parties getting any traction.

Even if there is a bit of an increase in the SNP vote in opinion polls before 2026 (which I would expect as the urge to vote Labour will be somewhat less for many people) there is not a cat's chance in hell that the SNP will advocate anything other than "both votes SNP", which to be fair they may need to pick up some list seats this time around.

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23 hours ago, exile said:

I see what you mean but my comment was made in the context of keeping things simple. Seems that much of the electorate was unsure who they were voting in or out on what policies devolved or reserved, or unaware that in fact voting Labour would not (and indeed did not) remove a single Tory in Scotland. 

The 2019 election was framed 'Get Brexit Done v Stop Brexit', this one was framed 'Change/Tories out'. One advantage of a de facto referendum would be to get people who are not paying attention to come out the woodwork and vote positively for a single thing - independence.

That said it would be risky and would need to be done boldly, in the spirit of 'if this succeeds it would be the last Westminster General Election ever' but that conviction was presumably beyond the recent leadership.

And... there is no guarantee that the Brit Govt would accept the result. 

The election was called too quick for the defacto to have any chance of being effective, but I understand and agree with your reasoning for it, and also concerns.

It may have had a chance if a defacto referendum had been given more exposure over the last 2 years , but it wasn’t. 

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27 minutes ago, Northern Light said:

Even if there is a bit of an increase in the SNP vote in opinion polls before 2026 (which I would expect as the urge to vote Labour will be somewhat less for many people) there is not a cat's chance in hell that the SNP will advocate anything other than "both votes SNP", which to be fair they may need to pick up some list seats this time around.

It's looking like the SNP will absolutely be relying on list votes in 2026 (similar to 2007), which will probably to the detriment of the Greens especially.

 

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On 7/8/2024 at 6:14 PM, Ally Bongo said:

Left, Right, Centre - it's all inconsequential for the SNP

What the party needs is a leader that the public can trust and get behind - a populist that is not just afraid to take on the media but who relishes it

Someone who knows their brief and is passionate about Independence

Could you see John Swinney taking Scotland to it's Independence ?  The answer is obviously not and he should go

Sturgeon and her baggage need to go too - all of it at Holyrood and every branch

There is a good chance there is nobody within the SNP that could do that - and also a good chance that there is nothing left of the SNP to save

 

22 hours ago, Redz said:

Do enough believe this / in fact would they, if so what jobs?

Assuming that's the path, and they're listening, lets tell them loud and clear 

Can't be any worse than can kicking.....

I think the public first and foremost want someone they think they can trust and who isnt bullshitting them. I dont think a leader needs to be hugely populist, they need to sound strong and capable.

Take @dan cake, he has little interest in politics but recognises Joanna Cherry as a decent politician. The general public are far more like him than the folk on this thread . Politics bores the arse off most people. Bores the arse off me too but I feel compelled to it due to independence. 

I think Joanna Cherry and Stephen Flynn are by far the best candidate for SNP party leader. They both have different qualities which makes it difficult for me to choose. If I was pushed I would go for JC as she is a lawyer , talks well , commands respect and isn’t flustered. I realise she can ruffle feathers, but for me that is exactly what is required. 

I would put Forbes to Health Secretary and Flynn to Treasury. 

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1 hour ago, TDYER63 said:

The election was called too quick for the defacto to have any chance of being effective, but I understand and agree with your reasoning for it, and also concerns.

It may have had a chance if a defacto referendum had been given more exposure over the last 2 years , but it wasn’t. 

 

I wasn't following all the ins and outs of politics over that period. I don't know if a de facto referendum would work or not, but if I recall it was NS who suggested it (or was cornered into it) and arguably if she had stayed on and stuck to it, it would have had a chance, but once she went, it was easier for others to let it drop and then, as you say, it was too late.

So it's easy to blame any of the last 3 or 4 leaders for anything that happened, harder to put it all back together into a winning strategy. Especially since it's not clear the Scots even know what they want. 

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This was the SNP candidate for Dumfries and Galloway - on the left

Not forgetting the SNP bloke for Hamilton and Clyde Valley that has a penchant for lipstick 

image.thumb.jpeg.bc1b8db0aeaffa667d5dda192c425fd2.jpeg

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https://www.yesthink.scot/p/from-jim-sillars-open-letter-to-snp

How we got here

I see in reaction to the catastrophe of last Thursday that there is much talk of “reflection” by our leadership, the National, and a fair number of members of the party. Reflection? No. It should be repentance, because 4th. July was inevitable given how the Sturgeon/Swinney era misled the movement, lost its common sense in government, promoted marginal issues as national priorities while the real priorities of the people such as education, housing, NHS, infrastructure, were notable only for the staggering level of incompetence with which they were dealt with.  

Whether the leadership has the grace to repent is of no matter. It is a busted flush. The people have no regard for them. Last Thursday wasn’t about who the Scots sent to Westminster, it was a referendum on the Scottish Government, and a condemnatory verdict was delivered.  Few of the people, and it is they who matter, have any faith that the ones who have run a failed government can, by discovering some hitherto unknown ability, take its governance performance to a better level.

If the SNP is to recover, as it must if the independence movement is to have any hope of achieving its aim, the party’s members should also realise that they have cause to repent.

You acquiesced in changes to the constitution which shifted all power to a leadership cult, with the party then run by Stalin’s wee sister: imposing a politburo of two exercising an iron grip on the organisation, and the annual conference. 

When you had doubts, you hid behind the mantra of “Wheesht for Indy”, letting error build on error.

You made the mistake of believing that if you openly criticised the ineptitude of the Scottish Government, you were damaging the idea of independence, when in fact by not calling them out that is exactly what you were doing.    

You got so used to not thinking for yourselves that you allowed the party to be hollowed out intellectually.  

Intellectual rigour, an indispensable tool for policymaking disappeared when you clapped Nicola’s repeated claims for another referendum, seemingly unaware that the SNP had become just the referendum party committed to the suicidal policy of putting the cart before the horse. 

Be grateful Westminster refused to give her one.   A mistake they will come to regret.  You kept quiet too when Nicola made it explicit that the last Holyrood election was not about independence, but about her.

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In other news I see Suella Braverman has been condemned - by fellow Tories - for her recent 'divisive right wing' speech in Washington blaming the Tories' defeat on being too liberal including attacking the pride flag flown over the Home Office. 

 

Edited by exile
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1 hour ago, exile said:

In other news... let's talk about the tories.

In a thread about the future of the SNP 4 days after getting destroyed at the GE... 😀

This is a perfect reply. You want to see what the SNP are going to learn from the 4th of July. Nothing.

They are incapable of recognizing any error. They will continue on doing the same things until May 2026 when the same thing or worse happens at Holyrood. I am not wasting my time warning you about it for the next two years but. Totally pointless.

Edited by thplinth
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9 hours ago, Ally Bongo said:

This was the SNP candidate for Dumfries and Galloway - on the left

Not forgetting the SNP bloke for Hamilton and Clyde Valley that has a penchant for lipstick 

image.thumb.jpeg.bc1b8db0aeaffa667d5dda192c425fd2.jpeg

Just reinforces my decision not to renew my membership.  At the one branch meeting I went to after rejoining (must have been some time last year as my membership ran out last September) I got the distinct feeling that there were some folk there whose priorities did not really include indy.  I'm not referring to the candidate, Tracy Little, who I voted for last Thursday.

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9 hours ago, Alibi said:

Just reinforces my decision not to renew my membership.  At the one branch meeting I went to after rejoining (must have been some time last year as my membership ran out last September) I got the distinct feeling that there were some folk there whose priorities did not really include indy.  I'm not referring to the candidate, Tracy Little, who I voted for last Thursday.

I have a feeling that there have been a sizable group of people who've joined the SNP since 2014 who did so as they felt they could influence Scottish Government policy, rather than because they wanted independence.

I don't know how you resolve that issue, as people will just lie if they're asked what their priorities are.

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1 hour ago, Clyde1998 said:

I have a feeling that there have been a sizable group of people who've joined the SNP since 2014 who did so as they felt they could influence Scottish Government policy, rather than because they wanted independence.

I don't know how you resolve that issue, as people will just lie if they're asked what their priorities are.

Follow the northeast’s example in fighting for traditional snp values, the Fraserburgh branch for example stuck to what they believed in, what was right,,, they were black listed pretty much for being aggressive on independence while giving zero attention to the rainbow mob,, they got seamus Logan elected for MP from that branch.. the peterhead branch now seem to coming round to what they were.. 

 

I stand by what I said a few years back,,, sturgeon wanted to completely destroy the snp core base in the northeast of Scotland, it was like a scorched earth attempt to destroy anything or anyone associated with salmond,,, I can just breath a sigh of relief that we saw her off and the party can now build out from the north east once again

Edited by hampden_loon2878
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Two true facts:
 
(1) Everyone knows the SNP has to change massively to avoid another massacre in 2026.
(2) Everyone knows it won't.
What now?
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Caught a bit of Debate Night last night while avoiding the Engurlund wankathon.

SNP getting it from all angles: Not pushing hard enough for independence, record in government, focusing too much on independence, what about the ferries? (admittedly a disaster, but worth noting that HS2 has cost Scottish taxpayers ten times more).

A party who are in a tight spot without a doubt. I would say trying to campaign for independence while running a devolved administration long term is a thankless task. By the looks of it Labour will be taking the helm in 2026 though if that is a snapshot of the electorate.

 

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16 minutes ago, Toepoke said:

Caught a bit of Debate Night last night while avoiding the Engurlund wankathon.

SNP getting it from all angles: Not pushing hard enough for independence, record in government, focusing too much on independence, what about the ferries? (admittedly a disaster, but worth noting that HS2 has cost Scottish taxpayers ten times more).

A party who are in a tight spot without a doubt. I would say trying to campaign for independence while running a devolved administration long term is a thankless task. By the looks of it Labour will be taking the helm in 2026 though if that is a snapshot of the electorate.

 

Just a point for clarification. Has HS2 actually cost Scottish taxpayers anything? I thought that was not the case. Although I'm pretty sure there are also examples of Scottish taxpayers money being squandered (PPE, Ajax armoured vehicles, Rwanda scheme etc.)

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32 minutes ago, Hertsscot said:

Just a point for clarification. Has HS2 actually cost Scottish taxpayers anything? I thought that was not the case. Although I'm pretty sure there are also examples of Scottish taxpayers money being squandered (PPE, Ajax armoured vehicles, Rwanda scheme etc.)

Do you think it was being paid for by English tax payers money?

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1 hour ago, Toepoke said:

Caught a bit of Debate Night last night while avoiding the Engurlund wankathon.

SNP getting it from all angles: Not pushing hard enough for independence, record in government, focusing too much on independence, what about the ferries? (admittedly a disaster, but worth noting that HS2 has cost Scottish taxpayers ten times more).

A party who are in a tight spot without a doubt. I would say trying to campaign for independence while running a devolved administration long term is a thankless task. By the looks of it Labour will be taking the helm in 2026 though if that is a snapshot of the electorate.

 

 

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1 hour ago, Orraloon said:

Do you think it was being paid for by English tax payers money?

Yes that was my understanding. The topic had cropped up somewhere else (twitter?) a while back, and HS2 came up as an example of the UK Government wasting Scots money (I may have even raised it myself). There was a fairly convincing response that this wasn't actually the case, hence my question.

There's plenty of reasons to be critical of Westminster but I just want to get the facts right.

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12 minutes ago, Hertsscot said:

Yes that was my understanding. The topic had cropped up somewhere else (twitter?) a while back, and HS2 came up as an example of the UK Government wasting Scots money (I may have even raised it myself). There was a fairly convincing response that this wasn't actually the case, hence my question.

There's plenty of reasons to be critical of Westminster but I just want to get the facts right.

I could be wrong but I don't think the treasury have a big bank account named "English Tax Money". It's the UK treasury and our taxes all go into one big pot. The UK government then decides how much to give back to the SG as a block grant. If the UK government spends tax revenue then a proportion of that will have been raised in Scotland. You can get into a discussion about Barnett money but that is just all smoke and mirrors. 

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2 hours ago, Ally Bongo said:

 

 

Ignoring that he says "independence from Scotland" (i assume he's not a Dumbartonshire nationalist!), i was thinking he's the type of voter that Alba would expect to hoover up.

Google tells me they didn't stand a candidate in that constituency though.

However, the fact Alba didn't attract more guys like him (11,000 odd Alba votes in total was it?) tells me there probably isn't too many like him around.

 

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Sure, there are many lessons to learn from SNP failings, and Alba have some ideas worth listening to.

But it's kind of ironic to see Alba supporters mocking and deriding Tracey Little on Wings over Scotland Twitter account, triggered by 'that photo', as if scapegoating her for SNP unpopularity.

I see that she personally got more votes than all of the Alba votes in Scotland put together. Arguably the finger of blame in Dumfries & Galloway should be pointed at the Greens, whose vote if added to the SNP could have removed the Tories. Even so, the Green candidate, who came sixth, still got more votes than any individual Alba candidate across Scotland. Just sayin'

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So starting the what next for ALBA thread did not work now they are bringing that guff here... Try as you will this is not about ALBA. They were a non entity before and after.

This just cements in the realization that there is nothing worth saving about this SNP. The petty bitterness and viciousness shown to ALBA is very telling given the 4th of July massacre they just endured.

 

Edited by thplinth
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10 hours ago, thplinth said:

It was their woke buddies the Greens who utterly shafted them, who rode them like a donkey...

Not a fucking word on that from the ALBA focused you note.

May 2026, Fuck the SNP.


completely true.  There might not be an snp by 2026 given the alleged state of their finances.  When operation branchform reporting back?

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