What happens to the SNP on Friday

[exile]

2 hours ago, Caledonian Craig said:

No John Swinney explained why they reined it in independence in this election. Canvassers and candidates on the doorsteps were told by voters independence was not top priority for them. They were more interested in everyday matters such as NHS, the financial crisis, energy crisis etc etc. They listened to the voters that is all.

I get that, treated as a normal general election, people would put other things first, as the stats show.

But I was talking about in the hypothetical situation of a de facto referendum, with all the indy parties are standing on a single issue indy ticket, and every indy vote counted, and if it's over 50% then they take it to the UN... If people knew that's what they were voting for, they'd be more likely to come out and vote for it.

[Caledonian Craig]

9 hours ago, exile said:

I get that, treated as a normal general election, people would put other things first, as the stats show.

But I was talking about in the hypothetical situation of a de facto referendum, with all the indy parties are standing on a single issue indy ticket, and every indy vote counted, and if it's over 50% then they take it to the UN... If people knew that's what they were voting for, they'd be more likely to come out and vote for it.

Would they though? A lot of people want independence...sure. But a lot of them are soft yessers and a defacto referendum people realise is in no way official and no way a ticket to independence are most likely to think: 'What's the point of it?' They would sooner see it as a normal election - a chance to kick the Tories out. Now do not get me wrong I am not one of those as I see each election as a sort of referendum and so will never vote for a unionist party but not everyone hold such strong views and dedication to the cause.

What I cannot understand is (not sure about whether this is legally possible) why do the SNP not send surveys out to its members to fill in and send back. Ask us if we would categorically vote for them if a defacto referendum was in place. Gauge the results using them as a guide. Okay not everyone is a SNP member so will not get the forms but surely the SNP should be looking after and following its own members wishes first.

[Ally Bongo]

1 hour ago, Caledonian Craig said:

 

What I cannot understand is (not sure about whether this is legally possible) why do the SNP not send surveys out to its members to fill in and send back. Ask us if we would categorically vote for them if a defacto referendum was in place. Gauge the results using them as a guide. Okay not everyone is a SNP member so will not get the forms but surely the SNP should be looking after and following its own members wishes first.

Sturgeon gerrymandered the SNP so that the NEC decide policy and not the SNP membership

[ThistleWhistle]

At best we're risking just rinse repeating previous failures even starting at ground zero.  Relying on any political party, regardless of rosette colour, trying to hoover up 50+% of the vote is  asking for trouble as they'll inevitably turn into a self serving bunch of shitehawks.  You've also got to blindly trust that they'll follow through on Independence which in itself would see the loss of WM revenue and likely the break-up of the party after the first SG election.

Regardless of motivation or perception, good or bad, no political party is going to champion the growth of another to their own detriment regardless if they apparently have the same objective.  The absolutely pointless, and arguably counter productive strategy, of both votes SNP wasn't to benefit the Independence movement but to kill off a competitor.  

If this is going to work ideally there needs to be 3 parties arguing for 15-20% of the vote each who can form a coalition  - left of center, center and right of center.  If one goes off course then the other 2 will benefit but the objective of Independence remains unharmed.  

All the eggs in one basket again and we'll just be having the same conversation again years down the line.  

[Alibi]

Just now, Ally Bongo said:

Sturgeon gerrymandered the SNP so that the NEC decide policy and not the SNP membership

That and her involvement in the Salmond stitch-up were huge red flags.  I do wonder if corrupting the NEC was just a means of forcing through her GRR obsession or if it was part of a plan to harm the indy movement from inside.  Why did she do the things she did?  We need to know what she was really up to and who, if anyone, was pullng her strings.  and we need to know soon because if we just stumble on with Swinney in charge then the 2026 election is going to be another disaster.

[hampden_loon2878]

13 minutes ago, Alibi said:

That and her involvement in the Salmond stitch-up were huge red flags.  I do wonder if corrupting the NEC was just a means of forcing through her GRR obsession or if it was part of a plan to harm the indy movement from inside.  Why did she do the things she did?  We need to know what she was really up to and who, if anyone, was pullng her strings.  and we need to know soon because if we just stumble on with Swinney in charge then the 2026 election is going to be another disaster.

i am starting to wonder if we are ever going to get to the truth of the salmond stitch up,, shas sturgeon some high level protection in all of this?. I think it was telling that sturgeon and liz lyod were rolled out on election night,, it was like a murderer returning to the crime scene, rubbing our noses in it..

[Orraloon]

6 hours ago, ThistleWhistle said:

  The absolutely pointless, and arguably counter productive strategy, of both votes SNP wasn't to benefit the Independence movement but to kill off a competitor.  

 

Which competitor?

[Ally Bongo]

6 minutes ago, Orraloon said:

Which competitor?

Alba

[Ally Bongo]

7 hours ago, Ally Bongo said:

Sturgeon gerrymandered the SNP so that the NEC decide policy and not the SNP membership

This is how they did it

https://robinmcalpine.org/how-democracy-was-stripped-from-the-snp/

 

This is how they ignored the membership

https://archive.ph/BBrOQ

 

They also never put other major policy decisions like GRR to the membership for a vote

[Orraloon]

2 minutes ago, Ally Bongo said:

Alba

"Both votes SNP" has been a thing long before Alba existed. 

[Alibi]

23 minutes ago, Orraloon said:

"Both votes SNP" has been a thing long before Alba existed. 

Yes, but given that the SNP rarely got list seats due to having taken so many constituency seats, there was an opportunity to get a supermajority if enough people could have been persauded to vote for an alternative pro-indy party in regions where the SNP wouldn't get list MSPs.  Basically everywhere except South of Scotland and the Highlands.

Don't know if it would still work because the SNP first vote might be lower now, and in any case the SNP would never have the imagination to do something like that.  They don't want any other pro indy parties getting any traction.

[Alibi]

29 minutes ago, Ally Bongo said:

This is how they did it

https://robinmcalpine.org/how-democracy-was-stripped-from-the-snp/

 

This is how they ignored the membership

https://archive.ph/BBrOQ

 

They also never put other major policy decisions like GRR to the membership for a vote

The more you think about it, the more it seems that there was a plan behind all the goings on.  Also noticeable that Loz Lloyd seems to be popping out the woodwork frequently these days.  She has become a go-to person for BBC Scotland.  That rings alarm bells.  She's UK civil service.  Nuff said...

[Orraloon]

2 minutes ago, Alibi said:

Yes, but given that the SNP rarely got list seats due to having taken so many constituency seats, there was an opportunity to get a supermajority if enough people could have been persauded to vote for an alternative pro-indy party in regions where the SNP wouldn't get list MSPs.  Basically everywhere except South of Scotland and the Highlands.

Don't know if it would still work because the SNP first vote might be lower now, and in any case the SNP would never have the imagination to do something like that.  They don't want any other pro indy parties getting any traction.

The "Both votes SNP" was a strategy to try to get an overall majority. It was Alex Salmond's plan not Nicola's. It worked in 2011 and millions of "Both votes SNP" leaflets were used in 2016, when it almost worked again. It didn't work in 2021 because by that time too many SNP voters had started giving their 2nd vote to the Greens. Which is exactly what folk are talking about here, but instead they want the 2nd votes to go to Alba instead of the Greens. The SNP would not be doing their job properly if they weren't trying to get an overall majority for the SNP.

[Ally Bongo]

Sturgeon's SNP clique

[mariokempes]

44 minutes ago, Alibi said:

The more you think about it, the more it seems that there was a plan behind all the goings on.  Also noticeable that Loz Lloyd seems to be popping out the woodwork frequently these days.  She has become a go-to person for BBC Scotland.  That rings alarm bells.  She's UK civil service.  Nuff said...

The joke that wee Nic and London Liz are goto opinion givers shows without doubt they are protected by the UK state.  Absolutely no question. 

[Northern Light]

47 minutes ago, Alibi said:

Yes, but given that the SNP rarely got list seats due to having taken so many constituency seats, there was an opportunity to get a supermajority if enough people could have been persauded to vote for an alternative pro-indy party in regions where the SNP wouldn't get list MSPs.  Basically everywhere except South of Scotland and the Highlands.

Don't know if it would still work because the SNP first vote might be lower now, and in any case the SNP would never have the imagination to do something like that.  They don't want any other pro indy parties getting any traction.

Even if there is a bit of an increase in the SNP vote in opinion polls before 2026 (which I would expect as the urge to vote Labour will be somewhat less for many people) there is not a cat's chance in hell that the SNP will advocate anything other than "both votes SNP", which to be fair they may need to pick up some list seats this time around.

[TDYER63]

23 hours ago, exile said:

I see what you mean but my comment was made in the context of keeping things simple. Seems that much of the electorate was unsure who they were voting in or out on what policies devolved or reserved, or unaware that in fact voting Labour would not (and indeed did not) remove a single Tory in Scotland. 

The 2019 election was framed 'Get Brexit Done v Stop Brexit', this one was framed 'Change/Tories out'. One advantage of a de facto referendum would be to get people who are not paying attention to come out the woodwork and vote positively for a single thing - independence.

That said it would be risky and would need to be done boldly, in the spirit of 'if this succeeds it would be the last Westminster General Election ever' but that conviction was presumably beyond the recent leadership.

And... there is no guarantee that the Brit Govt would accept the result. 

The election was called too quick for the defacto to have any chance of being effective, but I understand and agree with your reasoning for it, and also concerns.

It may have had a chance if a defacto referendum had been given more exposure over the last 2 years , but it wasn’t. 

[Toepoke]

27 minutes ago, Northern Light said:

Even if there is a bit of an increase in the SNP vote in opinion polls before 2026 (which I would expect as the urge to vote Labour will be somewhat less for many people) there is not a cat's chance in hell that the SNP will advocate anything other than "both votes SNP", which to be fair they may need to pick up some list seats this time around.

It's looking like the SNP will absolutely be relying on list votes in 2026 (similar to 2007), which will probably to the detriment of the Greens especially.

 

[TDYER63]

On 7/8/2024 at 6:14 PM, Ally Bongo said:

Left, Right, Centre - it's all inconsequential for the SNP

What the party needs is a leader that the public can trust and get behind - a populist that is not just afraid to take on the media but who relishes it

Someone who knows their brief and is passionate about Independence

Could you see John Swinney taking Scotland to it's Independence ?  The answer is obviously not and he should go

Sturgeon and her baggage need to go too - all of it at Holyrood and every branch

There is a good chance there is nobody within the SNP that could do that - and also a good chance that there is nothing left of the SNP to save

 

22 hours ago, Redz said:

Do enough believe this / in fact would they, if so what jobs?

Assuming that's the path, and they're listening, lets tell them loud and clear 

Can't be any worse than can kicking.....

I think the public first and foremost want someone they think they can trust and who isnt bullshitting them. I dont think a leader needs to be hugely populist, they need to sound strong and capable.

Take @dan cake, he has little interest in politics but recognises Joanna Cherry as a decent politician. The general public are far more like him than the folk on this thread . Politics bores the arse off most people. Bores the arse off me too but I feel compelled to it due to independence. 

I think Joanna Cherry and Stephen Flynn are by far the best candidate for SNP party leader. They both have different qualities which makes it difficult for me to choose. If I was pushed I would go for JC as she is a lawyer , talks well , commands respect and isn’t flustered. I realise she can ruffle feathers, but for me that is exactly what is required. 

I would put Forbes to Health Secretary and Flynn to Treasury. 

[exile]

1 hour ago, TDYER63 said:

The election was called too quick for the defacto to have any chance of being effective, but I understand and agree with your reasoning for it, and also concerns.

It may have had a chance if a defacto referendum had been given more exposure over the last 2 years , but it wasn’t. 

 

I wasn't following all the ins and outs of politics over that period. I don't know if a de facto referendum would work or not, but if I recall it was NS who suggested it (or was cornered into it) and arguably if she had stayed on and stuck to it, it would have had a chance, but once she went, it was easier for others to let it drop and then, as you say, it was too late.

So it's easy to blame any of the last 3 or 4 leaders for anything that happened, harder to put it all back together into a winning strategy. Especially since it's not clear the Scots even know what they want. 

[Ally Bongo]

This was the SNP candidate for Dumfries and Galloway - on the left

Not forgetting the SNP bloke for Hamilton and Clyde Valley that has a penchant for lipstick 

[exile]

In other news I see Suella Braverman has been condemned - by fellow Tories - for her recent 'divisive right wing' speech in Washington blaming the Tories' defeat on being too liberal including attacking the pride flag flown over the Home Office. 

 

Edited July 10 by exile

[Alibi]

9 hours ago, Ally Bongo said:

This was the SNP candidate for Dumfries and Galloway - on the left

Not forgetting the SNP bloke for Hamilton and Clyde Valley that has a penchant for lipstick 

Just reinforces my decision not to renew my membership.  At the one branch meeting I went to after rejoining (must have been some time last year as my membership ran out last September) I got the distinct feeling that there were some folk there whose priorities did not really include indy.  I'm not referring to the candidate, Tracy Little, who I voted for last Thursday.

[Clyde1998]

9 hours ago, Alibi said:

Just reinforces my decision not to renew my membership.  At the one branch meeting I went to after rejoining (must have been some time last year as my membership ran out last September) I got the distinct feeling that there were some folk there whose priorities did not really include indy.  I'm not referring to the candidate, Tracy Little, who I voted for last Thursday.

I have a feeling that there have been a sizable group of people who've joined the SNP since 2014 who did so as they felt they could influence Scottish Government policy, rather than because they wanted independence.

I don't know how you resolve that issue, as people will just lie if they're asked what their priorities are.

[hampden_loon2878]

1 hour ago, Clyde1998 said:

I have a feeling that there have been a sizable group of people who've joined the SNP since 2014 who did so as they felt they could influence Scottish Government policy, rather than because they wanted independence.

I don't know how you resolve that issue, as people will just lie if they're asked what their priorities are.

Follow the northeast’s example in fighting for traditional snp values, the Fraserburgh branch for example stuck to what they believed in, what was right,,, they were black listed pretty much for being aggressive on independence while giving zero attention to the rainbow mob,, they got seamus Logan elected for MP from that branch.. the peterhead branch now seem to coming round to what they were.. 

 

I stand by what I said a few years back,,, sturgeon wanted to completely destroy the snp core base in the northeast of Scotland, it was like a scorched earth attempt to destroy anything or anyone associated with salmond,,, I can just breath a sigh of relief that we saw her off and the party can now build out from the north east once again

Edited July 10 by hampden_loon2878