Simplest terms to advance...🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 - TA specific - Tartan Army Message Board Jump to content

Simplest terms to advance...🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿


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Instead of reading through all these different scenarios, what is the simple truth, if possible...

We beat Hungary we are in ??  or will we have to wait a few days and see how the other matches and groups pan out... I'm reading folk saying 4 points is enough, goal.difference dissnae matter in this tournament. Then I read 4 points may not be enough. I'm a wee bit confused..

Sorry lads, I just dinnae want to get my hopes up IF we beat Hungary, then we get papped oot in the last minute from a result in the other groups !!!

Better question perhaps, WHO do we want tae lose over the next week of the group stage...

Thanks troops..Alba Gu Brath 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿

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Based on the past two EUROs, 4 points has always been enough to advance. Im sure someone else who claims not to be an expert will give you a percentage but based on history its always been enough. 

As the rest of match day two concludes we will know what we want to happen, but I wouldn't expect us to know on Sunday for certain if we win 1. We have actually made it through and 2. Who our opponents would be and where and when we play.

If we win on Sunday, we should feel comfortable celebrating IMO but there would a remote chance things went against us like what if every third place team ended on 4 points, maybe GD, goals conceded or disciplinary stuff would go against us. I think the rest of this week will prove that every 3rd place team ending on 4 points is highly probable not to happen. 

 

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2 minutes ago, Tartan blood said:

There is actually a scenario where we could go through with 2 points. (Not worth torturing ourselves over though)

Yeah was just looking at that.  it's distinctly possible that the teams in 3rd and 4th in Group B will both finish on one point as they play Italy and Spain respectively in their last game so we'd only need one more group where 3rd place only has one point!

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43 minutes ago, Fairbairn said:

Yeah was just looking at that.  it's distinctly possible that the teams in 3rd and 4th in Group B will both finish on one point as they play Italy and Spain respectively in their last game so we'd only need one more group where 3rd place only has one point!

It's best not to even entertain that scenario ahead of the Hungary game. I don't want anyone going into that game thinking anything other than a victory will do.

Obviously if we do end up drawing with Hungary, I'll be obsessively going through all the permutations for the other groups. 😋

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18 minutes ago, Tartan blood said:

It's best not to even entertain that scenario ahead of the Hungary game. I don't want anyone going into that game thinking anything other than a victory will do.

Obviously if we do end up drawing with Hungary, I'll be obsessively going through all the permutations for the other groups. 😋

I'm not sure the players will be paying much attention to my post but I take your point! 🤣

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We can still go through in 2nd place in the group, IF we beat Hungary by a good score and German beat the Swiss by a large amount as well. (2x 3-0s, for example - the aggregate winning margin has to be 6 goals though).

 

That scenario is very, very unlikely though.

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1 hour ago, Fairbairn said:

A win should more or less see us through. I’m trying to figure out if there’s any sequence of events that could see us go through with a draw!! 

If SVN v SRB ends in a draw, we might be hoping for Denmark to beat Serbia and England to put 5 past Slovenia.

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18 minutes ago, Orraloon said:

If SVN v SRB ends in a draw, we might be hoping for Denmark to beat Serbia and England to put 5 past Slovenia.

Ok, I know a lot of people don't want to hear this so don't read on if the 2 point scenario isn't want you want to entertain.......

 

However, if we draw with Hungary and the following happens in groups B & D....

B - Italy beat Croatia & Spain beat Albania in game 3.

D - Poland draw with Austria in game 2 and then Holland beat Austria and France beat Poland

...then the third place teams in both of those groups would have one point meaning any 3rd placed team in the remaining groups with 2 points or more would qualify for the knockout phase.

None of that looks particularly far fetched.  Other than us drawing with Hungary of course as we're going to win! 😁

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Slovenia currently beating Serbia 1-0. If it stays that way they're virtually through.

Denmark play England later; I'm wondering if we might in in the invidious position of wanting our friends in the south to win that one. 😕

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1 minute ago, scotlad said:

Slovenia currently beating Serbia 1-0. If it stays that way they're virtually through.

Denmark play England later; I'm wondering if we might in in the invidious position of wanting our friends in the south to win that one. 😕

Kiss of death.

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6 minutes ago, Fairbairn said:

Ok, I know a lot of people don't want to hear this so don't read on if the 2 point scenario isn't want you want to entertain.......

 

However, if we draw with Hungary and the following happens in groups B & D....

B - Italy beat Croatia & Spain beat Albania in game 3.

D - Poland draw with Austria in game 2 and then Holland beat Austria and France beat Poland

...then the third place teams in both of those groups would have one point meaning any 3rd placed team in the remaining groups with 2 points or more would qualify for the knockout phase.

None of that looks particularly far fetched.  Other than us drawing with Hungary of course as we're going to win! 😁

If only all these things could happen before we play Hungary. 😂 But no doubt we will be sitting waiting for these sort of results to help us out.

Wishing for England 5 Slovenia 0 is back on. 😂

 

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A big last minute goal for us by Serbia. Now means that as long as England don’t lose either of their last two games ( I know I know) the third in that group can’t get to 4 points. As was posted above it also keeps alive the qualify with 2 points scenario albeit very unlikely I think

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3 minutes ago, Northern Light said:

A big last minute goal for us by Serbia. Now means that as long as England don’t lose either of their last two games ( I know I know) the third in that group can’t get to 4 points. As was posted above it also keeps alive the qualify with 2 points scenario albeit very unlikely I think

I can just see it now. England go 5-0 up and we are heading through. Then their goalie throws one in the back of his own net, just like Seaman did, back in 96. I have never forgiven him for that. 

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I wonder if other nations get out the abacus like we do and work out the potential outcomes to benefit your own nation.  I can't imagine we are. I find it hilarious and charming and not in a mocking way because I do it myself.  What @Fairbairn wrote above, I am reading it nodding and saying "Good...good".  

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53 minutes ago, Fairbairn said:

Kiss of death.

😬 Late Serbia equaliser (sounds familiar!). Slovenia will be hurting like fuck.

It's probably a good result for us though.

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1 hour ago, Fairbairn said:

Ok, I know a lot of people don't want to hear this so don't read on if the 2 point scenario isn't want you want to entertain.......

 

However, if we draw with Hungary and the following happens in groups B & D....

B - Italy beat Croatia & Spain beat Albania in game 3.

D - Poland draw with Austria in game 2 and then Holland beat Austria and France beat Poland

...then the third place teams in both of those groups would have one point meaning any 3rd placed team in the remaining groups with 2 points or more would qualify for the knockout phase.

None of that looks particularly far fetched.  Other than us drawing with Hungary of course as we're going to win! 😁

Not far fetched at all really.  If Poland and Austria draw tomorrow then it actually becomes probable that 2 points would be enough for us to go through 

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4 minutes ago, romanticscot said:

I wonder if other nations get out the abacus like we do and work out the potential outcomes to benefit your own nation.  I can't imagine we are. I find it hilarious and charming and not in a mocking way because I do it myself.  What @Fairbairn wrote above, I am reading it nodding and saying "Good...good".  

Of course they do, but only the ones who are smart enough to use an abacus in the first place. 😉

Some folk, like the OP, have to ask somebody else to do it for them. 😂

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12 minutes ago, todd said:

Not far fetched at all really.  If Poland and Austria draw tomorrow then it actually becomes probable that 2 points would be enough for us to go through 

Hmmm, not so sure. It only takes either Croatia or Albania to get a point against Italy/Spain and if there is a win in the late game tonight that team will already have qualified heading into their last game. I wouldn’t trust either Spain or Italy to bust a gut to win their last game when a draw sees them win their group.

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12 minutes ago, Northern Light said:

Hmmm, not so sure. It only takes either Croatia or Albania to get a point against Italy/Spain and if there is a win in the late game tonight that team will already have qualified heading into their last game. I wouldn’t trust either Spain or Italy to bust a gut to win their last game when a draw sees them win their group.

So, we want a draw tonight then? This is where the tournament gets interesting.

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