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Best Third-Placed Teams


Crawf41

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I didn’t even think about starting this thread, until I switched on the first of the second set of group matches and saw that Albania are 1-0 up on Croatia.

A draw in that game, which now has a reasonable chance, would be a huge boost to our chances - or our group’s chances if you prefer - of finishing as one of the 4 third-placed teams with the best records.

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18 minutes ago, weekevie04 said:

Let's wait and see how we do first before even thinking about that, haha. 

Whatever tonight’s result against Switzerland, the ‘best 4’ third-placed teams situation becomes very relevant for us, as soon as the final whistle blows, in around seven hours’ time. Albania taking the lead against Croatia just brought that into focus for us, a few hours earlier than expected!

I assumed Albania would end Group B with zero points - given their low ranking and the high rankings of the three other teams in the group - so I didn’t think that group would have many permutations to consider, in terms of how helpful it would be to our chances of progressing. However, Croatia losing by three goals to Spain and now trailing to Albania, means that group could be of more use to us than we would have previously expected.

As mentioned previously, a draw between Albania and Croatia, would almost be as good as a bonus point, or a bonus half point, to Scotland. It would be a huge result.

Edited by Crawf41
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If Albania hold for a win, it would mean a cracker match for Croatia v Italy however this Croatia side keeps the ball well but doesn't have much of a threat. Saying that, Albania would be a tough match. Whatever happens, I want this 3rd place team whoever it is to be on 3 points so for that to happen lets hope for Albania to win today. 

 

We want atleast two groups to have their 3rd placed to end on three points, if not less. 

Edited by romanticscot
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6 minutes ago, romanticscot said:

If Albania hold for a win, it would mean a cracker match for Croatia v Italy however this Croatia side keeps the ball well but doesn't have much of a threat. Saying that, Albania would be a tough match. Whatever happens, I want this 3rd place team whoever it is to be on 3 points so for that to happen lets hope for Albania to win today. 

 

We want atleast two groups to have their 3rd placed to end on three points, if not less. 

I’m not sure what calculations you’re doing, but we definitely want a draw between Albania and Croatia.

That would give a real chance that the third-placed team in that group finishes on two points, or even one point. A winner in this game takes the third-placed team to at least three points.

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Its all moot now, but if Albania won today they would be on three and it would take a miracle to beat Spain. End on 3 points

Albania winning - Croatia would be on zero and playing to beat Italy to end on three points.

If Croatia hold to win, they play Italy and hoping to win. Croatia on 3 points if not.

Providing Italy lose against Spain, Italy could end on three points but I would prefer Croatia over Italy. 

Statistically 4 points always gets you to second round in a 24 team euros.

3 points for us, could even land us second spot in the group providing the three points come today. 

Im also thinking we have more chance ending 2nd than 3rd.

 

 

Edited by romanticscot
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5 minutes ago, romanticscot said:

Its all moot now, but if Albania won today they would be on three and it would take a miracle to beat Spain. End on 3 points

Albania winning - Croatia would be on zero and playing to beat Italy to end on three points.

If Croatia hold to win, they play Italy and hoping to win. Croatia on 3 points if not.

Providing Italy lose against Spain, Italy could end on three points but I would prefer Croatia over Italy. 

Statistically 4 points always gets you to second round in a 24 team euros.

3 points for us, could even land us second spot in the group providing the three points come today. 

 

 

Eh???

We surely want(ed) the third-placed team in that group to end on two or one points, rather than three? Which a draw today would have gone a long way to achieving.

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3 minutes ago, Crawf41 said:

Eh???

We surely want(ed) the third-placed team in that group to end on two or one points, rather than three? Which a draw today would have gone a long way to achieving.

Would have? 😉

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2 minutes ago, Clyde1998 said:

Would have? 😉

Brilliant result! 2-2.

That gives us a huge boost and like I mentioned previously, that’s like a half-point bonus to us. Totally unexpected.

Steve Clarke won’t, but he could probably now change his annoying 4-point mantra to 3 points! 😂

A massively significant result for Scotland and most teams in the tournament.

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2 minutes ago, Crawf41 said:

Brilliant result! 2-2.

That gives us a huge boost and like I mentioned previously, that’s like a half-point bonus to us. Totally unexpected.

Steve Clarke won’t, but he could probably now change his annoying 4-point mantra to 3 points! 😂

A massively significant result for Scotland and most teams in the tournament.

I still think we should aim for four points. Not only as it would almost certainly take goal difference out of the equation, but could also get us through in second.

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Key games in this regard will be Poland vs Austria and Slovenia vs Serbia. We should be hoping for draws in each. There are obviously many other possible permutations at this stage but these feel the most likely groups (along with Group B).

I feel like a result against Switzerland is unlikely, so perhaps our best chance would be to beat Hungary and hope that two of the other groups finish with third place on 2 points. Would make for uncomfortable viewing next week!

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The other potentially interesting group is Group D.

Poland play Austria on Friday and if that's a draw then those two will go into their final games v France and Netherlands respectively on 1 point.

Group F is also sat like that at the moment. Czechs and Georgia play on Saturday and it's the same situation, draw there and they would both be sitting on 1 point going into the last game really needing to win to get through.

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11 minutes ago, todd said:

If Hungary beat Germany then 100% we'll need something from tonights match. Unless we were to beat them 6-0 or something 

I could be talking shite there as it would be head to head. Unless Switzerland beat Germany too then it would be a 3 way on 3 points so it would be goal difference and we'd be boned

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2 hours ago, Clyde1998 said:

I still think we should aim for four points. Not only as it would almost certainly take goal difference out of the equation, but could also get us through in second.

Yeah, we should aim for six points, but the bigger the safety net the better, especially after Friday’s debacle.

The chance to progress with three points would be an absolute godsend.

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2 hours ago, Meagaidh said:

Key games in this regard will be Poland vs Austria and Slovenia vs Serbia. We should be hoping for draws in each. There are obviously many other possible permutations at this stage but these feel the most likely groups (along with Group B).

I feel like a result against Switzerland is unlikely, so perhaps our best chance would be to beat Hungary and hope that two of the other groups finish with third place on 2 points. Would make for uncomfortable viewing next week!

Yeah, Austria - Poland in particular will be another game like Albania - Croatia today, where a draw would be almost like handing bonus points in our direction.

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2 hours ago, romanticscot said:

Either way, Croatia not winning today was a fantastic result. Come on Spain take care of Italy.

 

 

 

 

The Italy - Spain result doesn’t affect us much does it? Today’s Albania - Croatia draw was the big one for us.

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28 minutes ago, todd said:

I could be talking shite there as it would be head to head. Unless Switzerland beat Germany too then it would be a 3 way on 3 points so it would be goal difference and we'd be boned

Yeah, if Hungary beat Germany, then we could still lose tonight and beat Hungary for third place.

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1 minute ago, Mazda said:

 

we look the worst team in the tournament

 

 

Based on what? One match?

We’re a better team than Georgia - they’re only in the tournament because of a nonsense backdoor route that shouldn’t exist - the same reason we qualified for the 2020 tournament!

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Just now, Mazda said:

one round , yes

A bit of a pointless judgement, no?

Anything can happen in a 90-minute match, it’s far too short a time-span to judge anything on.

We might have performed the worst in the first round of matches - we almost certainly did - but that doesn’t make us the worst team in the tournament.

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23 minutes ago, Crawf41 said:

The Italy - Spain result doesn’t affect us much does it? Today’s Albania - Croatia draw was the big one for us.

No but if Spain beat Italy they'll be more motivated to beat Croatia. Perhaps that's what he was getting at🤔

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