SNP leadership election

[duncan II]

9 minutes ago, Orraloon said:

So, you think Brits living overseas shouldn't be allowed to vote in a General Election?

That's a fair enough position, is it not?

[vanderark14]

Question for both of you, why shouldn't people living overseas be allowed to vote on elections or referendums if they were previously resident in that country and still maintain ties there? 

 

 

[Hertsscot]

50 minutes ago, vanderark14 said:

Not for me

There may be some like me who have potential plans to return to Scotland one day.

Bizarrely I'm still a member of the London branch though I moved to Scotland 18 months ago.

[aaid]

5 minutes ago, duncan II said:

That's a fair enough position, is it not?

Who should have a vote, a student from overseas studying in Scotland with no intention of remaining or a Scottish student studying overseas who fully intends to return?

Questions over the electorate and who it should contain are often not straightforwards.

[Ally Bongo]

https://scotgoespop.blogspot.com/2023/03/huztae-be-absolute-worst-case-scenario.html

Let's not mince words - this is an unmitigated disaster.  The SNP have replaced a popular leader with a deeply unpopular leader.  They have done so needlessly, because there was a popular alternative on offer.  And given that Yousaf has won so narrowly, there's going to be little doubt that the only reason he prevailed is because the process was so tightly 'managed' by the Sturgeon faction, with favours being called in left, right and centre.

[hampden_loon2878]

3 minutes ago, Ally Bongo said:

https://scotgoespop.blogspot.com/2023/03/huztae-be-absolute-worst-case-scenario.html

Let's not mince words - this is an unmitigated disaster.  The SNP have replaced a popular leader with a deeply unpopular leader.  They have done so needlessly, because there was a popular alternative on offer.  And given that Yousaf has won so narrowly, there's going to be little doubt that the only reason he prevailed is because the process was so tightly 'managed' by the Sturgeon faction, with favours being called in left, right and centre.

The next election will make 2017 look like a picnic, when will the endorsement junkies start to panic 

[aaid]

3 minutes ago, Ally Bongo said:

https://scotgoespop.blogspot.com/2023/03/huztae-be-absolute-worst-case-scenario.html

Let's not mince words - this is an unmitigated disaster.  The SNP have replaced a popular leader with a deeply unpopular leader.  They have done so needlessly, because there was a popular alternative on offer.  And given that Yousaf has won so narrowly, there's going to be little doubt that the only reason he prevailed is because the process was so tightly 'managed' by the Sturgeon faction, with favours being called in left, right and centre.

Who was the popular alternative?

He’s starting to see right through Alba, I’ll give him that much.

[PapofGlencoe]

38 minutes ago, Orraloon said:

So, you think Brits living overseas shouldn't be allowed to vote in a General Election?

seems pretty fair to me.  get a say when they live here?  don't when they don't?  if they have plans to come back, then they'll have a vote when they do.  

think that's  how the last ref went as well?  

[vanderark14]

Does anyone else think this is all just soooooooo scotland🤣🤣🤣

Post 2014 there's a wave of optimism.......just under ten years after and the main independence party is starting to split and we seem so far away from being an independent country 

[Ally Bongo]

19 minutes ago, aaid said:

Who was the popular alternative?

 

According to polling Forbes was by far and away the most popular of the 3 with the general public

[aaid]

1 minute ago, vanderark14 said:

Does anyone else think this is all just soooooooo scotland🤣🤣🤣

Post 2014 there's a wave of optimism.......just under ten years after and the main independence party is starting to split and we seem so far away from being an independent country 

Twice in one day, getting to be a worrying habit.

I hope a lot of this is just people letting their emotions get the better of them after a disappointment.

[aaid]

1 minute ago, Ally Bongo said:

According to polling Forbes was by far and away the most popular of the 3 with the general public

Clearly not in the one poll which counted.  

BTW, there was next to no polling carried out and nothing for a couple of weeks. 

[vanderark14]

2 minutes ago, aaid said:

Twice in one day, getting to be a worrying habit.

I hope a lot of this is just people letting their emotions get the better of them after a disappointment.

Scotland gets all brave after they say no to a referendum.......builds support for independence........then start arguing because its not the type of independence people want. 

[Ally Bongo]

3 minutes ago, aaid said:

Clearly not in the one poll which counted.  

BTW, there was next to no polling carried out and nothing for a couple of weeks. 

https://scotgoespop.blogspot.com/2023/03/new-ipsos-poll-shows-humza-yousafs-net.html

https://scotgoespop.blogspot.com/2023/03/the-first-polling-information-about.html

Clearly the difference between Yousaf and Forbes amongst SNP first preferences was out however it took place at the start of the vote and before almost every SNP MP/MSP announced they were supporting Yousaf

Survation / DC Thomson poll (8th-10th March 2023):

General public's first preferences:

 

Kate Forbes: 30%

Humza Yousaf: 20%

Ash Regan: 9%

 

First preferences of SNP voters:

 

Kate Forbes: 33%

Humza Yousaf: 31%

Ash Regan: 13%

 

First preferences of Yes voters from 2014 independence referendum:

 

Kate Forbes: 32%

Humza Yousaf: 28%

Ash Regan: 15%

 

[aaid]

2 minutes ago, Ally Bongo said:

https://scotgoespop.blogspot.com/2023/03/new-ipsos-poll-shows-humza-yousafs-net.html

https://scotgoespop.blogspot.com/2023/03/the-first-polling-information-about.html

Clearly the difference between Yousaf and Forbes amongst SNP first preferences was out however it took place at the start of the vote and before almost every SNP MP/MSP announced they were supporting Yousaf

Survation / DC Thomson poll (8th-10th March 2023):

General public's first preferences:

 

Kate Forbes: 30%

Humza Yousaf: 20%

Ash Regan: 9%

 

First preferences of SNP voters:

 

Kate Forbes: 33%

Humza Yousaf: 31%

Ash Regan: 13%

 

First preferences of Yes voters from 2014 independence referendum:

 

Kate Forbes: 32%

Humza Yousaf: 28%

Ash Regan: 15%

 

As I said, nothing for a couple of weeks and very little before that.  If you don’t believe me, believe Prof Curtice who’s pretty much said that what polling was done was of little use.

 

[Hertsscot]

23 minutes ago, vanderark14 said:

Does anyone else think this is all just soooooooo scotland🤣🤣🤣

Post 2014 there's a wave of optimism.......just under ten years after and the main independence party is starting to split and we seem so far away from being an independent country 

Particularly when the UK has suffered one of the most incompetent, corrupt, unpopular and arrogant governments in living memory.

[vanderark14]

3 minutes ago, Hertsscot said:

Particularly when the UK has suffered one of the most incompetent, corrupt, unpopular and arrogant governments in living memory.

Exactly, it's like scotland enjoys having the boot on its neck. 

[AlfieMoon]

1 hour ago, aaid said:

Who should have a vote, a student from overseas studying in Scotland with no intention of remaining or a Scottish student studying overseas who fully intends to return?

Questions over the electorate and who it should contain are often not straightforwards.

Others often criticise you for not deviating from the SNP party line.

Did you disagree with their decision on who could vote in Indyref? 

[aaid]

16 minutes ago, AlfieMoon said:

Others often criticise you for not deviating from the SNP party line.

Did you disagree with their decision on who could vote in Indyref? 

I can recall a friend of mine’s son who was at Stirling university in 2014 but was from down here.  I was talking to him in the summer of 2014 and he said that although some of his friends were intending to vote and were voting no, he wasn’t because he didn’t think it had anything to do with him.  I respected that position.  I also understand why Salmond went for the franchise he did as to do anything else would’ve been too complicated and that he regretted that Scots who didn’t live in Scotland had to be excluded.  As I said before, it’s not straightforwards.  
 

edit.  Just to add, even if I never ever live in Scotland again, any future referendum would actually have a direct impact on me as it would affect my nationality.  In 2014 that might have been more of an arbitrary thing but post Brexit, it has real significance.  

Edited March 27 by aaid

[duncan II]

2 hours ago, aaid said:

Who should have a vote, a student from overseas studying in Scotland with no intention of remaining or a Scottish student studying overseas who fully intends to return?

Questions over the electorate and who it should contain are often not straightforwards.

It's perhaps not straightforward and the examples you give are cause for discussion. Not saying I have a perfect solution, but in general terms, yeah, I think those not resident in the country not being given a vote is a perfectly logical and fair position to take.

[hampden_loon2878]

Such a 2014 feel about today, hope disintegrated, maybe I am in the wrong party but will give it a year or so

[mcguffin]

1 hour ago, vanderark14 said:

Exactly, it's like scotland enjoys having the boot on its neck. 

Agreed. I was going to say "Stockholm Syndrome". But then Stockholm is a capital of an independent nation.

[Malcolm]

15 minutes ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

Such a 2014 feel about today, hope disintegrated, maybe I am in the wrong party but will give it a year or so

I think it’s all over for the SNP.  the had their peak in 2014.  Kate Forbes would have been far more popular with the electorate and a more formidable political opponent.

it will pan out like this is my guess….

The SNP will lose a section of voters and members instantly as they realise the party have  are a huge error. Humza will do all the things that appeal to the left… challenge the GRR, etc.  he will be unsuccessful and slapped down by the Uk government.  

the Uk election will happen where the snp will probably drop a few seats.  Humza will be dealing with disillusionment in the party blaming Westminster for everything. Momentum will be against him.

The next Scottish election will happen and he won’t have a majority even with the greens.  There will be much wailing and gnashing of teeth within the party of “how could this have happened”.

we will be left with a hung parliament and the snp will be bigger than it was back in the 80s but a shadow of recent times.
 

 

[AlfieMoon]

2 hours ago, aaid said:

I can recall a friend of mine’s son who was at Stirling university in 2014 but was from down here.  I was talking to him in the summer of 2014 and he said that although some of his friends were intending to vote and were voting no, he wasn’t because he didn’t think it had anything to do with him.  I respected that position.  I also understand why Salmond went for the franchise he did as to do anything else would’ve been too complicated and that he regretted that Scots who didn’t live in Scotland had to be excluded.  As I said before, it’s not straightforwards.  
 

edit.  Just to add, even if I never ever live in Scotland again, any future referendum would actually have a direct impact on me as it would affect my nationality.  In 2014 that might have been more of an arbitrary thing but post Brexit, it has real significance.  

Fair enough 👍

[AlfieMoon]

49 minutes ago, Malcolm said:

I think it’s all over for the SNP.  the had their peak in 2014.  Kate Forbes would have been far more popular with the electorate and a more formidable political opponent.

it will pan out like this is my guess….

The SNP will lose a section of voters and members instantly as they realise the party have  are a huge error. Humza will do all the things that appeal to the left… challenge the GRR, etc.  he will be unsuccessful and slapped down by the Uk government.  

the Uk election will happen where the snp will probably drop a few seats.  Humza will be dealing with disillusionment in the party blaming Westminster for everything. Momentum will be against him.

The next Scottish election will happen and he won’t have a majority even with the greens.  There will be much wailing and gnashing of teeth within the party of “how could this have happened”.

we will be left with a hung parliament and the snp will be bigger than it was back in the 80s but a shadow of recent times.
 

 

I think in terms of Westminster, SNP will probably shed seats. Their MP’s aren’t able to do much and folk will be drawn to backing the winner as Labour head for victory. 
 

In terms of Holyrood, the interesting balance will be the list votes. If SNP can maintain a high 2nd vote percentage, they’ll still be in a decent position to limit damage from constituency seats losses. 
 

All if’s, but’s and maybe’s for a while yet though and a lot to happen before then.