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On 5/3/2023 at 1:58 PM, TDYER63 said:

I agree.

I have a branch meeting tonight. It will be interesting to see what, if anything, is discussed about recent events.
I fully expect the usual run down of how much we have in the branch account,  and councillors report,  and nothing else. Both important of course but there seems a total lack of acknowledgement of the crisis. I may need to put on my angry head. 

That was pretty much my experience of the last branch meeting i went to a few months ago.  People discussing unimportant trivia.  I actually received an email a few weeks ago asking if I wanted to sign a card to be sent to NS after she resigned.  What planet are these folk on?  One guy (now the convener of the branch) was wearing a T shirt that read "Tofu-eating wokerati".  I despair.  These folk are going to lead us to indy? Aye right.  I doubt I'll be renewing my membership this year.

 

 

 

 

 

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11 minutes ago, aaid said:

This article details the last available set of accounts which was published last year.   This was published one year after the police investigation started after the police investigation started.  It shows that the spent £250k of the independence fund that year.

https://www.thenational.scot/news/20668792.snp-accounts-published-electoral-commission-show-party-finances/

That's the data that's in the public domain.  Anyone suggesting otherwise is either lying or guessing.

I see Murray Foote is speculating today that he thinks this could end up with no criminality found and no-one being charged.   He draws parallels with the Rangers cases, that's something that I've been thinking as well.

I think the whole thing has been the UK establishment putting on a display.  As you say, nobody has been charged.  It's not about proving criminality because there very likely is none.  It's about destroying the SNP as a political force and harming the indy movement.  The MSM are complicit in this.  I realised it was a sham when I saw that tent on the Murrell's lawn, ridiculous overkill even if there had been some sort of fraud.  It's time for Police Scotland to put up or shut up.  and long past time to ask why the SNP have been pushing policies that nobody wants or likes - it's as if they are trying to destroy the party themselves - and I'm sure there are some within the party who want exactly that. Follow the money.

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Putting Tom Gordon’s turgid spin to one side - the auditors are not saying that there was fraud, they are saying that if there was an audit might not pick it up.   From memory, I think this relates to revenue recognition, which would be the process whereby when money comes into the SNP, largely from donations but also commercial activities, that the processes around that were lax.  Now that looks like it could be the sort of thing that the “growing pains” relate to, more money coming in, not enough people to deal with it properly, lax processes, etc, etc.   He also mentions that the SNP had previously admitted they’d spent some or all of the independence money on Election expenses, specifically the 2019 General Election.

https://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/19539640.snp-auditors-make-unprecedented-fraud-statement-party-accounts/

So that’s two points in the past two years where they’ve “admitted” that some or all of the original 600k on elections and “independence related” expenditure. 

Looking at how the police investigation has developed in recent months, I’d bet that it’s a two pronged investigation.  Firstly they’ll be looking at income, and seeing who much of that has been correctly or incorrectly recorded and looking for fraud associated with that as opposed to errors.  Secondly, they will be looking at spending and looking at whether that has been legitimately accounted for - which is probably where the camper van comes into it.

I’m not knowledgable enough to know what criminal charges could be brought if there’s no personal gain for anyone.  Presumably some sort of false accounting but I’d imagine that would be a difficult case to prove.

Still anyway, you can just ignore all this as I’m a slavish biased Nicola Sturgeon fanboy with tunnel vision, so what do I know.  

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And then there is the going ons at North Lanarkshire Council and how it has been dealt with

Again - the current SNP

Several conscientious SNP councillors in North Lanarkshire attempted to raise concerns over the behaviour of Jordan Linden, but were systematically ignored, silenced and victimised by group leader Tracey Carragher along with other members of the SNP group.

One of the whistleblowers was suspended on trumped-up charges, after a secret vote in a secret meeting convened by Carragher and her faction, and now two more have been expelled and a further four suspended for six months for objecting to the cover-up. All seven councillors who raised concerns about Linden and were themselves disciplined as a result have now quit the party.

Although the matter has now been in the media for nine months, SNP HQ has stood by and done nothing. Although to be fair, they do rather have their hands full at the moment.

 

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SNP chiefs have been led to say independence off the table like the quotes from last week.  Master tacticians, they are not.  Even the unionists have studiously avoided saying Scotland is not in a voluntary union even when it seems otherwise.  

There was nothing wrong with taking the long game as perhaps this actually suits Scotland's people.  However, by taking it off the ballot box it's become a pipe dream with no means to pressurise in real terms and build support over the period SNP gradualists  say we need.  Opinion polls won't cut it.

I see Pete Wishart is starting to grasp this in his article today.  Pity Regan wasn't really the candidate to push this but it's the only tactic left.  

Sadly though anyone living in Scotland can actually intangibly feel the SNP has become a bit of a joke to substantial parts of the electorate and you just hope the independence cause doesn't become too tied to it during this period.  A party hovering around the 30% can be a normal political party but it cannot be a mover of world events on its own.  It's a symbiotic relationship but the cause is greater than the party.  Yet the party is undoubtedly the main vehicle and what the party does has huge influence.

It's a matter of time before the SNP come to the conclusion on defacto referendums at every election in my view, if they actually want to push the case.  Just a matter of specifics (all v UK v HR) and when to deliver the message.  Probably best not done when the party is viewed with incredulity.

 

  

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Craig Murray had a interesting bit on today regarding the NCA  and it’s investigation into sturgeon, when she new and also indicates why the snp leadership race was reduced to 3 weeks, anyone thinking the campaign wasn’t marred with corruption is living in cuckoo land

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5 minutes ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

Craig Murray had a interesting bit on today regarding the NCA  and it’s investigation into sturgeon, when she new and also indicates why the snp leadership race was reduced to 3 weeks, anyone thinking the campaign wasn’t marred with corruption is living in cuckoo land

The problem that Craig Murray has is that his whole theory about the Salmond trial - for which he went to jail - is predicated upon there being a massive conspiracy and corruption between the SNP, the Scottish Civil Service, Police Scotland, COPFS and the justiciary.  

The Police Scotland investigation into the SNP and how it’s being conducted blows a massive hole in that theory and so he needs to come up with another theory based upon no evidence to shore that up.

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3 hours ago, aaid said:

The problem that Craig Murray has is that his whole theory about the Salmond trial - for which he went to jail - is predicated upon there being a massive conspiracy and corruption between the SNP, the Scottish Civil Service, Police Scotland, COPFS and the justiciary.  

The Police Scotland investigation into the SNP and how it’s being conducted blows a massive hole in that theory and so he needs to come up with another theory based upon no evidence to shore that up.

Takes a lot of balls to do what he did, regardless if you think he was right or wrong. He must have been convinced it was worth doing 

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On 5/7/2023 at 12:50 PM, hampden_loon2878 said:

Takes a lot of balls to do what he did, regardless if you think he was right or wrong. He must have been convinced it was worth doing 

The real question was why was Salmond being stitched up in the first place?  Clear from what was reported that the whole thing was a witch hunt, and that there was perjury committed by at least one of the alphabetties.  Also clear that jigsaw identifiers who disliked Salmond were not prosecuted - that Dani Garavelli for one - unlike murray and that other guy who were targeted because they reported the stuff that the MSM completely ignored.

Now we have an all out attack on the indy movement - talk of specialists in organised crime and money laundering being touted.  Why do these folk never investigate the various unionist parties who have a lot of dodgy dealings that are very rarely investigated?  They're putting on a show and some of the more gullible folk who read the yoon papers are being put off voting for the SNP because of the bad publicity.  Meanwhile Yousaf is a fucking plane crash.

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Another poor poll for the snp, personally I think this one is closer than the reidfield polling. My take on it, is that it is not disastrous however the polling is going one way and if these insane policies, HMPA’s, juryless trials, oil and gas stance, GRR ect then we risk losing those votes for good and see a downwards trajectory. 8498CB34-2DE8-4E1D-A69F-83ED5F62B6C2.jpeg.b71216c15d8ab4da0559a5eb6702c252.jpeg

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30 minutes ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

Another poor poll for the snp, personally I think this one is closer than the reidfield polling. My take on it, is that it is not disastrous however the polling is going one way and if these insane policies, HMPA’s, juryless trials, oil and gas stance, GRR ect then we risk losing those votes for good and see a downwards trajectory. 8498CB34-2DE8-4E1D-A69F-83ED5F62B6C2.jpeg.b71216c15d8ab4da0559a5eb6702c252.jpeg

Even more disasterous for Alba me thinks. SNP down 3% but evidently Alba not snaffling up any of those potential voters. This is just an example of the poor state of affairs of the independence movement where voters are too readily ready to vote unionist. 

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1 hour ago, Caledonian Craig said:

Even more disasterous for Alba me thinks. SNP down 3% but evidently Alba not snaffling up any of those potential voters. This is just an example of the poor state of affairs of the independence movement where voters are too readily ready to vote unionist. 

Don’t you worry about alba, worry about the snp,,, however I will go on record and say the alba party will gain 6+ seats 

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If Labour in Scotland wanted to clean up, they would need to support indy.  I think it's the case that about a third of their members are already pro-indy or at worst sympathetic to the idea but remain with Labour because they've always been Labour.  There has been a drop in support for the SNP but it's likely to be a result of the media shitstorm over everything they can find to hang an SNP bad story on - the ongoing police investigation, which is way out of proportion to any actual criminality that could possibly have happened being the prime example.  To those of us who are long term indy supporters, we see what is going on, but the less committed might be swayed away from indy because the papers say so.  However on the other hand, there has been no campaigning for a long time, and as soon as an election comes along, Sarwar will need to defend policies that include support for Brexit, NHS privatisation, prescription charges, no single market ot customs union, no freedom of movement, continuation of various Tory policies that Starmer won't repeal. and a long list of other stuff.  good luck with that, Anas.  Once these things come under the spotlight, Labour in Scotland will crash and burn.  62% of Scots voted against Brexit, so why would they now vote for a pro brexit party?  Labour's only real hope in Scotland when they start to be scrutinised is that Humza Yousaf totally fucks things up and misses several open goals - a possibility I wouldn't rule out tbh.

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12 minutes ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

Don’t you worry about alba, worry about the snp,,, however I will go on record and say the alba party will gain 6+ seats 

Not with the percentages they're getting, they won't.  Might cause problems for the SNP by stealing a few %, but they're not likely to win much on their current figures.  Surprises me slightly as their social media activity is incessant and gives the impression that they are more numerous than their polling figures suggest. 

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12 minutes ago, Alibi said:

Not with the percentages they're getting, they won't.  Might cause problems for the SNP by stealing a few %, but they're not likely to win much on their current figures.  Surprises me slightly as their social media activity is incessant and gives the impression that they are more numerous than their polling figures suggest. 

It will be very regional, pollling will struggle to pick it up,, 

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2 hours ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

Don’t you worry about alba, worry about the snp,,, however I will go on record and say the alba party will gain 6+ seats 

Hmm so you fully accept SNP will suffer losses on this poll but Alba show no rise but you think Alba will pick up 6 seats anyway. Biased thinking me thinks.

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4 hours ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

Another poor poll for the snp, personally I think this one is closer than the reidfield polling. My take on it, is that it is not disastrous however the polling is going one way and if these insane policies, HMPA’s, juryless trials, oil and gas stance, GRR ect then we risk losing those votes for good and see a downwards trajectory. 8498CB34-2DE8-4E1D-A69F-83ED5F62B6C2.jpeg.b71216c15d8ab4da0559a5eb6702c252.jpeg

I suspect it is too.  Redfield Wilton seem to have a massive hard-on for the Lib Dems for one thing - they were showing them polling at almost twice what they got in 2021 for HR.

2 hours ago, Alibi said:

If Labour in Scotland wanted to clean up, they would need to support indy.  I think it's the case that about a third of their members are already pro-indy or at worst sympathetic to the idea but remain with Labour because they've always been Labour.  There has been a drop in support for the SNP but it's likely to be a result of the media shitstorm over everything they can find to hang an SNP bad story on - the ongoing police investigation, which is way out of proportion to any actual criminality that could possibly have happened being the prime example.  To those of us who are long term indy supporters, we see what is going on, but the less committed might be swayed away from indy because the papers say so.  However on the other hand, there has been no campaigning for a long time, and as soon as an election comes along, Sarwar will need to defend policies that include support for Brexit, NHS privatisation, prescription charges, no single market ot customs union, no freedom of movement, continuation of various Tory policies that Starmer won't repeal. and a long list of other stuff.  good luck with that, Anas.  Once these things come under the spotlight, Labour in Scotland will crash and burn.  62% of Scots voted against Brexit, so why would they now vote for a pro brexit party?  Labour's only real hope in Scotland when they start to be scrutinised is that Humza Yousaf totally fucks things up and misses several open goals - a possibility I wouldn't rule out tbh.

I just wonder if the more people see of Labour the less they'll like them.  Anas Sarwar is a dumpling and possesses the charm and charisma of a service station toilet, while his front bench team makes Humza Yousaf's bargain basement cabinet look strong by comparison. 

At the moment I can imagine the SNP returning a markedly reduced number of MSPs - most probably with the pro-independence majority gone -  but still emerging as the largest party.

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3 hours ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

Don’t you worry about alba, worry about the snp,,, however I will go on record and say the alba party will gain 6+ seats 

It was 11+ just a while back.

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2 hours ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

It will be very regional, pollling will struggle to pick it up,, 

That doesn’t stack up with your prediction though.  Based on the Greens performance over the last two elections, you need around 6% to pick up a seat in a region, you’re predicting 6 seats from 8 regions, in which regions do you think there is 11-12% support for Alba, if you’re saying it’s regionally based?

Not a direct comparison but the best we have - based on actual votes - in last years council elections, Alba got 0.7% of the vote across the country as a whole.  In *your* ward, they got 73 FP votes, 1.7% of the total.  72 of them were probably all friends of yours.

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25 minutes ago, scotlad said:

I suspect it is too.  Redfield Wilton seem to have a massive hard-on for the Lib Dems for one thing - they were showing them polling at almost twice what they got in 2021 for HR.

I just wonder if the more people see of Labour the less they'll like them.  Anas Sarwar is a dumpling and possesses the charm and charisma of a service station toilet, while his front bench team makes Humza Yousaf's bargain basement cabinet look strong by comparison. 

At the moment I can imagine the SNP returning a markedly reduced number of MSPs - most probably with the pro-independence majority gone -  but still emerging as the largest party.

It’s a bit of fun getting hung up on polls three years out from the next Holyrood election, even the WM election is likely to be 18 months away.

At this point, you have to look at the SNP’s position being down to the ongoing police investigation and the party being pretty much universally portrayed as bankrupt and full of crooks rather than any problems with policies.  The policies that are being quoted as being “unpopular” are all those which the Greens also support and/or are being blamed for yet their share has been increasing consistently over the last few months.  

By 2026 that will all be in the past and either it will have fizzled out with no-one charged or there will be high profile people in the jail.   Either way what is or isn’t true will be in the public domain and to a greater or lesser extent people will have moved on.  No-one can predict what the outcome to opinion that will cause either way.

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36 minutes ago, aaid said:

It’s a bit of fun getting hung up on polls three years out from the next Holyrood election, even the WM election is likely to be 18 months away.

At this point, you have to look at the SNP’s position being down to the ongoing police investigation and the party being pretty much universally portrayed as bankrupt and full of crooks rather than any problems with policies.  The policies that are being quoted as being “unpopular” are all those which the Greens also support and/or are being blamed for yet their share has been increasing consistently over the last few months.  

By 2026 that will all be in the past and either it will have fizzled out with no-one charged or there will be high profile people in the jail.   Either way what is or isn’t true will be in the public domain and to a greater or lesser extent people will have moved on.  No-one can predict what the outcome to opinion that will cause either way.

Spot on. 

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