SNP leadership election

[Malcolm]

good to see some of the SNP can still see the “wine bar revolutionaries” for what they are.

[PapofGlencoe]

47 minutes ago, Malcolm said:

if only there was a strong Independence Party with great leadership and sensible policies that one could vote for.

You're being polemic.  Scotland is hardly a Marxist state.  It has marginally more progressive taxes than rUK but less than other European countries.  with the policy studiously ensuring most Scots actually pay less. For most people things have largely remained the same since 2010s with the biggest changes being a reduction in rights due to Brexit and purse due to inflation.  Things outside our people's control at the ballot box due to being part of the UK.

The SNP got as big a mandate as any party in Europe, not so long ago.  it's generally the party of educated upper working class, middle class people getting their kids to uni. a slightly more progressive country than the UK is probably what Scotland is on the whole...so it's hardly crazy that's what they vote for. 

[Malcolm]

2 minutes ago, PapofGlencoe said:

You're being polemic.  Scotland is hardly a Marxist state.  It has marginally more progressive taxes than rUK but less than other European countries.  with the policy studiously ensuring most Scots actually pay less. For most people things have largely remained the same since 2010s with the biggest changes being a reduction in rights due to Brexit and purse due to inflation.  Things outside our people's control at the ballot box due to being part of the UK.

The SNP got as big a mandate as any party in Europe, not so long ago.  it's generally the party of educated upper working class, middle class people getting their kids to uni. a slightly more progressive country than the UK is probably what Scotland is on the whole...so it's hardly crazy that's what they vote for. 

The pre sturgeon SNP maybe… but particularly since the wine bar revolutiknary party got involved they lurched to the left

[phart]

The SNP are generally a bit to the right. Although I guess direction is relative to where you are standing. Moscow isn't East if you're in Tokyo.

There's no analysis just sticking labels on things with zero depth.

[Lobey]

23 hours ago, scotlad said:

Not at all, I think it makes you sound perfectly sane and switched on. If they can infiltrate the IRA infiltrating the SNP ought to be child's play.

As for monitoring emails and telephone messages, well, I don't know for certain but I'm sure that big muckle building that houses GCHQ isn't just full of people sat at desks twiddling their thumbs. 

It's easy to look at the SNP, with their obedient MPs and MSPs and all the assorted hangers-on, and conclude they're just A.N Other conventional mainstream party (and functionally I suppose they are) but I don't think we should underestimate how much of a threat the British state perceives the institution of the SNP and what it represents to be.

Scotland, despite what many (most?) people in this country believe, is very valuable to the UK, economically, financially and strategically. "Losing" Scotland creates several headaches for the British government that it could do without. Destroying it destroys the main political vehicle for Scottish independence.

🍻

Should ask aaid they work at GCHQ after all.

Only joking.....

aren't I ?

 

What is the colour of the boathouse at Hereford ?

😛

 

[hampden_loon2878]

Sturgeon to go down as the worst SNP leader ever 

[aaid]

Surprised the vote is holding up so well given that it’s open season on the SNP with the opposition able to make all sorts of unfounded accusations and the SNP not able to say too much in response as there’s an open police investigation.    Good job there isn’t an election for three years.

 

[hampden_loon2878]

48 minutes ago, aaid said:

Surprised the vote is holding up so well given that it’s open season on the SNP with the opposition able to make all sorts of unfounded accusations and the SNP not able to say too much in response as there’s an open police investigation.    Good job there isn’t an election for three years.

 

Good job there’s not more missery to be piled onto us via the sturgeon legacy 🙈

[Alibi]

10 hours ago, aaid said:

Surprised the vote is holding up so well given that it’s open season on the SNP with the opposition able to make all sorts of unfounded accusations and the SNP not able to say too much in response as there’s an open police investigation.    Good job there isn’t an election for three years.

 

The polls will shift when Labour's actual policies are pointed out in an election campaign. Pro brexit, anti indy, anti indyref, anti immigration, anti freedom of movement, anti customs union, in favour of reintroducing tuition fees, prescription charges, bridge tolls, fairly happy with NHS privatisation, and a lot more that is not in line with the wishes of the Scottish electorate.  Sarwar is controlled from London and I can't wait to see him trying to sell UK Labour policies to us during an election campaign when these policies are being highlighted.  It's an open goal for any half decent SNP leader.  At the moment we've just had a media shitstorm and the less perspicacious among us have  taken the lies and exaggerations on board.  Even if the tories called an election for next month, any campaign is going to concentrate minds on real issues and then there's no hiding behind smears and rumours.

[aaid]

2 minutes ago, Alibi said:

The polls will shift when Labour's actual policies are pointed out in an election campaign. Pro brexit, anti indy, anti indyref, anti immigration, anti freedom of movement, anti customs union, in favour of reintroducing tuition fees, prescription charges, bridge tolls, fairly happy with NHS privatisation, and a lot more that is not in line with the wishes of the Scottish electorate.  Sarwar is controlled from London and I can't wait to see him trying to sell UK Labour policies to us during an election campaign when these policies are being highlighted.  It's an open goal for any half decent SNP leader.  At the moment we've just had a media shitstorm and the less perspicacious among us have  taken the lies and exaggerations on board.  Even if the tories called an election for next month, any campaign is going to concentrate minds on real issues and then there's no hiding behind smears and rumours.

I’d need to see the underlying data but I suspect that poll shows that a section of SNP voters are either indicating don’t know or will not vote. That could cause the small uptick in the other parties as their vote share increases if the overall “turnout” goes down. 

[Malcolm]

6 hours ago, Alibi said:

The polls will shift when Labour's actual policies are pointed out in an election campaign. Pro brexit, anti indy, anti indyref, anti immigration, anti freedom of movement, anti customs union, in favour of reintroducing tuition fees, prescription charges, bridge tolls, fairly happy with NHS privatisation, and a lot more that is not in line with the wishes of the Scottish electorate.  Sarwar is controlled from London and I can't wait to see him trying to sell UK Labour policies to us during an election campaign when these policies are being highlighted.  It's an open goal for any half decent SNP leader.  At the moment we've just had a media shitstorm and the less perspicacious among us have  taken the lies and exaggerations on board.  Even if the tories called an election for next month, any campaign is going to concentrate minds on real issues and then there's no hiding behind smears and rumours.

i suspect that you will see a softening of policy in Scotland that might even include some kind of offer on independence referendum or at least additional powers.

when things get tight towards the next election, labour will see the opportunity to hoover up snp votes in Scotland to return them in Westminster.

[Och Aye]

3 hours ago, Malcolm said:

i suspect that you will see a softening of policy in Scotland that might even include some kind of offer on independence referendum or at least additional powers.

when things get tight towards the next election, labour will see the opportunity to hoover up snp votes in Scotland to return them in Westminster.

Jocks don't have that much relevance in General Election results.

[Clyde1998]

11 hours ago, aaid said:

I’d need to see the underlying data but I suspect that poll shows that a section of SNP voters are either indicating don’t know or will not vote. That could cause the small uptick in the other parties as their vote share increases if the overall “turnout” goes down. 

Of the relevant groups for the Westminster VI:

2014 IndyRef:

• Yes - 15% DK; 7% WNV (combined ~80 people in the sample)
• No - 16% DK; 8% WNV (~108)

2019 vote:

• SNP - 16% DK; 3% WNV (~63)
• Lab - 8% DK; 3% WNV (~15)
• Con - 18% DK; 3% WNV (~39)
• LDm - 15% DK; 4% WNV (~13)

Age:

• 18-24 - 9% DK; 13% WNV (~28)
• 25-49 - 17% DK; 19% WNV (~145)
• 50-64 -18% DK; 7% WNV (~65)
• 65+ -12% DK; 6% WNV (~44)

In terms of certainty to vote (a score of 0 to 10) by demographic (against at Westminster):

• 2014 vote - Yes 8.47; No 8.37
• 2019 vote - Con 9.16; Lab 9.03; LDm 8.87; SNP 9.21
• Age - 16-24 6.36; 25-49 7.07; 50-64 8.55; 65+ 8.91

Returning all the 2019 voters back to their 2019 party, leads to roughly: SNP 38 (+1), Lab 26 (-3), Con 18 (+1), LDm 8 (nc), Oth 9 (nc). That would be about 38 SNP seats (-10), 10 Lab (+9), 6 Con (nc) and 5 LDm (+1). Most of the Labour gains on those figures would be very marginal.

6% of 2019 SNP voters (of those giving a VI) say they'd vote Green at Westminster right now too. If half of those return to the SNP, that takes the SNP to ~40%, others to ~8% and the unionists stay the same as above.

[aaid]

19 minutes ago, Clyde1998 said:

Of the relevant groups for the Westminster VI:

2014 IndyRef:

• Yes - 15% DK; 7% WNV (combined ~80 people in the sample)
• No - 16% DK; 8% WNV (~108)

2019 vote:

• SNP - 16% DK; 3% WNV (~63)
• Lab - 8% DK; 3% WNV (~15)
• Con - 18% DK; 3% WNV (~39)
• LDm - 15% DK; 4% WNV (~13)

Age:

• 18-24 - 9% DK; 13% WNV (~28)
• 25-49 - 17% DK; 19% WNV (~145)
• 50-64 -18% DK; 7% WNV (~65)
• 65+ -12% DK; 6% WNV (~44)

In terms of certainty to vote (a score of 0 to 10) by demographic (against at Westminster):

• 2014 vote - Yes 8.47; No 8.37
• 2019 vote - Con 9.16; Lab 9.03; LDm 8.87; SNP 9.21
• Age - 16-24 6.36; 25-49 7.07; 50-64 8.55; 65+ 8.91

Returning all the 2019 voters back to their 2019 party, leads to roughly: SNP 38 (+1), Lab 26 (-3), Con 18 (+1), LDm 8 (nc), Oth 9 (nc). That would be about 38 SNP seats (-10), 10 Lab (+9), 6 Con (nc) and 5 LDm (+1). Most of the Labour gains on those figures would be very marginal.

6% of 2019 SNP voters (of those giving a VI) say they'd vote Green at Westminster right now too. If half of those return to the SNP, that takes the SNP to ~40%, others to ~8% and the unionists stay the same as above.

YouGov data doesn’t really tell you that much since it only gives you percentage splits and excludes WNV/DK.  What you really need to see is the raw numbers of people polled and their choices.  

[Ally Bongo]

@aaid

 

[aaid]

2 hours ago, Ally Bongo said:

@aaid

 

You’re wasting your time if you think I’m going to be bothered to watch that.  

[Ally Bongo]

30 minutes ago, aaid said:

You’re wasting your time if you think I’m going to be bothered to watch that.  

There are none so blind as those that will not see ...

There is no gloating going on

Are you feart of what may well be the truth ?

[Ally Bongo]

The media going to town on Colin Beattie about the SNP buying a fucking motorhome when the Tories are up to their neck in dark money, Russian Donations and all sorts of shit

 

[aaid]

3 hours ago, Ally Bongo said:

The media going to town on Colin Beattie about the SNP buying a fucking motorhome when the Tories are up to their neck in dark money, Russian Donations and all sorts of shit

 

He’s was asked “did you know about the motorhome purchase, did you sign it off”.

To which he answered “No”.   He’s clarified that he found out after the purchase, when he signed off the 2021 accounts.  

Scottish MSM getting things wrong again funnily enough.  What do people actually think a Treasurer does   

 

[Alibi]

The "SNP bad" MSM coverage is getting beyond ludicrous.  Glenn Campbell has lost it completely. I don't know if anyone has actually done anything wrong, but the fuss about a motorhome smacks of desperation.  I have no idea why the SNP would buy a motorhome and the idea that anyone would need one for campaigning when they usually use a big bus seems a bit strange, but ffs.  Why are no other parties held to the same standards?  It's a blatant attempt to destroy the SNP, and out of all proportion to any actual criminality that might have occurred.  Let's see Glenn and his pals turn the same scrutiny on the other parties.  Maybe even point out that Labour support a hard brexit, Glenn?

[Squirrelhumper]

15 hours ago, aaid said:

He’s was asked “did you know about the motorhome purchase, did you sign it off”.

To which he answered “No”.   He’s clarified that he found out after the purchase, when he signed off the 2021 accounts.  

Scottish MSM getting things wrong again funnily enough.  What do people actually think a Treasurer does   

 

So he signed the accounts off anyway?

[Squirrelhumper]

18 hours ago, Ally Bongo said:

The media going to town on Colin Beattie about the SNP buying a fucking motorhome when the Tories are up to their neck in dark money, Russian Donations and all sorts of shit

 

I'd rather we got our own house in order rather than being as bad as the tories.

[aaid]

1 hour ago, Squirrelhumper said:

So he signed the accounts off anyway?

That’s a matter of public record and wasn’t what he was asked.  

The MSM collectively fucked up, got excited for a couple of hours and funnily enough now it’s no longer a major story. 

In fact, the particular journalist who asked that question is an even bigger idiot.  The motorhome was apparently purchased in January 2021, when Douglas Chapman, not Colin Beattie was Treasurer.

Edited April 26, 2023 by aaid

[weekevie04]

22 hours ago, Ally Bongo said:

The media going to town on Colin Beattie about the SNP buying a fucking motorhome when the Tories are up to their neck in dark money, Russian Donations and all sorts of shit

 

Absolutely ridiclous. 

The "impartial" BBC at one point had a headline yesterday "SNP MSP BEATTIE NOW SAYS HE KNEW OF CAMPER VAN."

 

[PapofGlencoe]

NEC, prospective leaders, actual leaders, business convenors and god knows maybe treasurers didn't know, didn't ask, didn't care, weren't told about the basics of financial management for some unknown reason.  This is despite having umpteen hangers on giving the impression they have management information and oversight committees for this very thing.  Now looks possible the main independence party will lose million(s) because of their incompetence or worse. 

This is just what we know.

The bus thing just hasn't been answered properly at all and makes zero sense but there's enough nonsense been laid bare to show summat wasn't right.