SNP leadership election

[Hertsscot]

9 minutes ago, aaid said:

I agree with this.  I think that the polls will narrow between Labour and the Tories as the election gets closer.  Labour aren't under any scrutiny right now - that will change - and I'm not sure that they can go all the way without taking a position on anything.  I still think Labour will be the largest party but maybe without an overall majority - whether they'll deal with the SNP is another matter.    Interestingly, the Lib Dems don't seem to be making much headway in England, which might help the Tories to hang on to some seats where the Lib Dems are second and Labour a poor third.

Certainly agree with this. Tories are like Glenn Close in Fatal Attraction you think they're gone but suddenly they emerge alive and dangerous. 

Starmer lacks charisma, the best that can be said of Labour is they're not the Tories.  I don't see their electoral promises ushering in the same wave of optimism as when Blair came to power.

You've also got to factor in changes to constituency boundaries and voting id which will benefit the Tories, a compliant media, a BBC that they virtually own, economy that they crashed may be picking up, inflation which soared under them will be coming down, and Sunak is presentable compared to his last two predecessors. I'm not banking on a Labour landslide.

[PapofGlencoe]

The party are putting independence on the back burner and hoping to convince a settled majority over a longer period.  It's not how i'd do it but there is a path in theory.  However, if they're going to do that they need to kick start the wider independence movement alongside all parties and none.  It cannot be done without the SNP as the main player in it.  And independence will not be achieved, a large enough majority will not be achieved, through a single political party in the 21st century.  The Scottish parliament didn't come via one party and it won't happen for the much bigger leap with an intransigent London.

All evidence thus far has been to downgrade the idea of an Independence Convention and reaching out to all pro-independence parties, people and organisations.  It's been all talk and no trousers.  There has been no Yes Scotland 2 despite a crappy twitter handle and dubious fundraising.  This must be created as the campaigning, civic arm of the independence movement that all can get behind.  

Yousaf alluded to this in his speech to some extent.  but there are so many lackies in the party now that are SNP career first, independence second that I struggle to believe it will happen.  But will give him a chance.  That also means all sides opening dialogue with an open agenda. It's not just the SNP that have been tin eared.  Plenty Alba and Greens are spoiling for fights, not working together.  It may prove impossible.  If we're sitting without a convention or proper all encompassing campaign separate from the SNP in six months time, it'll be a failure.  

[PapofGlencoe]

25 minutes ago, Caledonian Craig said:

And the sub-servient nature of sitting waiting for permission from Westminster is equally a disgrace and treacherous act but we do it.

don't be casting me in that way.  I have no intention of that at all.  A defacto vote will probably be necessary.

However, if any campaign sees fit to declare against a majority of our own people's wishes, I will actively campaign for the other side.    

[hampden_loon2878]

17 minutes ago, Orraloon said:

If Kate has any plans for a long term career in politics, then she will want to be as close to the heart of government as she can be. At the moment she is set up to be the next leader of the SNP. Coincidentally, she is almost the same age as Nicola was when she missed out first time round. She should be seen to support Humza as best she can, and continue to do as good a job as possible in any ministerial post she is given. In a few years time she could be the only candidate to replace him. If she refuses to serve in his cabinet she will probably just drift off into obscurity.

She definitely won’t refuse to work in his cabinet, I think her reaction compared to regans, showed her in a different light to many, she is a very pleasant, kind person, the character assassination at the start of her campaign hid that side of her. The question is whether humza takes Kate onboard 

[Caledonian Craig]

1 minute ago, PapofGlencoe said:

don't be casting me in that way.  I have no intention of that at all.  A defacto vote will probably be necessary.

However, if any campaign sees fit to declare against a majority of our own people's wishes, I will actively campaign for the other side.    

No not painting you in that way but attitudes need to change as in simple acceptance of what Westminster says is not an option. The defacto route is the only avenue I see open to us at present which is disgraceful given pro-independence parties (SNP chiefly) have won every election in Scotland for over a decade. If we win that defacto election then we must do something with it. I take your point about no majority of votes but many may vote on party politics and there are independence supporters who vote Scottish Labour, fewer who vote Scottish Lib Dems and fewer still that vote Scottish Conservative. All these election wins and we are still dancing to Westminster's tune - something has to change.

[hampden_loon2878]

50 minutes ago, Ally Bongo said:

Almost certain it will be Angus Robertson as his sidekick considering the shimmy shamming he did to get back in the Scottish Parliament and the record number of times he said he was voting for Yousaf

The MSP roasters that endorsed him will also be there - MacPherson, Gray, Gilruth, McAllan, McKelvie etc

He has a get out to not including Forbes as she is still on maternity leave

 

I had high hopes for McAllan however she showed herself up in her unfounded attacks on Forbes, Gray is a roaster as well, gilruth I wouldn’t grudge in a less important roll.

[hampden_loon2878]

Humza would do well to distance himself from the GRR, but kinda backed himself into a corner on the vote losing policy, also the MPA’s on fishing areas that the greens have pushed will be a disaster forthe  rural areas of Scotland, actually he should step back from the greens and work as a minority. 

[Orraloon]

11 minutes ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

She definitely won’t refuse to work in his cabinet, I think her reaction compared to regans, showed her in a different light to many, she is a very pleasant, kind person, the character assassination at the start of her campaign hid that side of her. The question is whether humza takes Kate onboard 

He has to offer her a job in the cabinet. Even he isn't that daft.

[Orraloon]

5 minutes ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

Humza would do well to distance himself from the GRR, but kinda backed himself into a corner on the vote losing policy, also the MPA’s on fishing areas that the greens have pushed will be a disaster forthe  rural areas of Scotland, actually he should step back from the greens and work as a minority. 

There isn't much point of suggesting that when you know it's not going to happen?

[hampden_loon2878]

3 minutes ago, Orraloon said:

There isn't much point of suggesting that when you know it's not going to happen?

Well there needs to be some sign that the new SNP leader will stick up for the snp. It comes across as everything the greens want they get, Kates constituency will be massively hit with this MPA’s (10% of waters not fished, even creel fishing) so much so that blackford would do well to hold his seat at the next election. Kate has already said the legislation is wrong and doesn’t support it, will humza pull that legislation back in? It would be a start 

[PapofGlencoe]

14 minutes ago, Caledonian Craig said:

No not painting you in that way but attitudes need to change as in simple acceptance of what Westminster says is not an option. The defacto route is the only avenue I see open to us at present which is disgraceful given pro-independence parties (SNP chiefly) have won every election in Scotland for over a decade. If we win that defacto election then we must do something with it. I take your point about no majority of votes but many may vote on party politics and there are independence supporters who vote Scottish Labour, fewer who vote Scottish Lib Dems and fewer still that vote Scottish Conservative. All these election wins and we are still dancing to Westminster's tune - something has to change.

So what?  we can't declare it without knowing if a majority want it.  

I think most people understand a defacto vote may be where we're heading if the wall remains in all circumstances.  if that happens and people want to be independent, they will vote accordingly.  If they vote for unionist parties, they will be rightly counted as such.  

[Ally Bongo]

Angus Robertson is already lined up to be the next leader

Not Forbes

[Orraloon]

1 hour ago, aaid said:

I agree with this.  I think that the polls will narrow between Labour and the Tories as the election gets closer.  Labour aren't under any scrutiny right now - that will change - and I'm not sure that they can go all the way without taking a position on anything.  I still think Labour will be the largest party but maybe without an overall majority - whether they'll deal with the SNP is another matter.    Interestingly, the Lib Dems don't seem to be making much headway in England, which might help the Tories to hang on to some seats where the Lib Dems are second and Labour a poor third.

The Scottish results are a lot more complex though.   With one party being so dominant - the SNP - and consistently polling in the 40s, a change of a few % either way can have a relatively large shift either way.  That's because the SNP are either first or second in each seat.   As an example.  In 2015, the SNP had 50% of the vote and won 56 seats.  In 2019 they had 45% of the vote and won 48 seats, current polling with them on 40% shows them picking up 38 seats.  So you get and idea of the swing.  +- 5% gives you +-9 seats (or 15% of the seats).   That's a factor of how FPTP works in the current state of play in Scotland.

Conversely for Holyrood elections it has the opposite effect, if the SNP were to lose constituency seats to Labour then you could almost guarantee that they would pick up list seats to compensate and also where Labour would constituencies they'd lose list seats.  

 For some of the more extreme predictions to happen, the political landscape in Scotland would have to revert to pre-2007 levels and with the constitution being the defining theme of Scottish politics, I don't see that happening. 

 

It would need to be a deal that would suit both sides which I am confident could be achieved. And, I think Labour would do a deal if they had to, and the terms of the deal suited them. I think the SNP could come up with a route that would also suit Labour. It's only a glimmer of hope though, as it relies on the arithmetic being right. 

[hampden_loon2878]

31 minutes ago, Orraloon said:

He has to offer her a job in the cabinet. Even he isn't that daft.

Has he? Must have missed that

[hampden_loon2878]

6 minutes ago, Ally Bongo said:

Angus Robertson is already lined up to be the next leader

Not Forbes

Correct if he somehow manages to keep clear of all the behind the scenes sagas

[aaid]

2 minutes ago, Orraloon said:

It would need to be a deal that would suit both sides which I am confident could be achieved. And, I think Labour would do a deal if they had to, and the terms of the deal suited them. I think the SNP could come up with a route that would also suit Labour. It's only a glimmer of hope though, as it relies on the arithmetic being right. 

It’s also not 1979 either and I doubt the SNP would “pay a heavy price” for scuppering a Labour government that wouldn’t do a deal.  As you say, all about arithmetic though. 

[Orraloon]

4 minutes ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

Has he? Must have missed that

Do you think that Humza won't offer her a job in the cabinet? 

 

[Och Aye]

4 minutes ago, Orraloon said:

Do you think that Humza won't offer her a job in the cabinet? 

 

Some people could see it as weak after her criticism of him in Health Secretary role 

[aaid]

13 minutes ago, Och Aye said:

Some people could see it as weak after her criticism of him in Health Secretary role 

Give her Health and see how much she likes it - the most difficult brief in the cabinet.

Seriously, she should stick in at Finance, the problem though is if she wants to continue her maternity leave, there’d need to be an interim which could be awkward, maybe Swinney could be convinced to hang on for a few months.  

[hampden_loon2878]

23 minutes ago, Orraloon said:

Do you think that Humza won't offer her a job in the cabinet? 

 

I have no idea, it would make sense however is she too much a threat

[hampden_loon2878]

1 minute ago, aaid said:

Give her Health and see how much she likes it - the most difficult brief in the cabinet.

Seriously, she should stick in at Finance, the problem though is if she wants to continue her maternity leave, there’d need to be an interim which could be awkward, maybe Swinney could be convinced to hang on for a few months.  

Wouldn’t be very “progressive” to miss someone out who is on maternity leave, agree though, finance is her strong point and no one would do a better job than her. 

[aaid]

4 minutes ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

Wouldn’t be very “progressive” to miss someone out who is on maternity leave, agree though, finance is her strong point and no one would do a better job than her. 

Well put it this way, I doubt had she won she’d be going back onto maternity leave.  

[Orraloon]

If she isn't in the cabinet it will be of her own choosing, IMO.

[Ally Bongo]

If i was Forbes i would want to play on the maternity angle in order to distance herself as much as possible from Humza's Government

The public's general perception of him is that he is an idiot

[Hertsscot]

36 minutes ago, aaid said:

Well put it this way, I doubt had she won she’d be going back onto maternity leave.  

Yes but that was for the top job that does not come up very often. Also I suspect she saw an opportunity to lead Scotland to independence as FM. I wouldn't be surprised if she stays on maternity for a bit longer. Humza however still needs to reach out to a large number of pretty disillusioned SNP supporters and may need to upset the Greens along the way.