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7 minutes ago, AlfieMoon said:

I think in terms of Westminster, SNP will probably shed seats. Their MP’s aren’t able to do much and folk will be drawn to backing the winner as Labour head for victory. 
 

In terms of Holyrood, the interesting balance will be the list votes. If SNP can maintain a high 2nd vote percentage, they’ll still be in a decent position to limit damage from constituency seats losses. 
 

All if’s, but’s and maybe’s for a while yet though and a lot to happen before then. 

That's not how it will work - British Labour offer nothing to Scotland

What will see a surge in Labour fortunes is SNP voter apathy

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3 hours ago, Hertsscot said:

Particularly when the UK has suffered one of the most incompetent, corrupt, unpopular and arrogant governments in living memory.

In the aftermath of the 2014 result I tried to imagine circumstances that might lead to another referendum in the short to medium term. If you'd told me then that in a little over five years we'd have had not one but two Tory majority governments, the UK had voted to leave the EU and Boris Johnson would be PM of the UK - all while dozens of SNP MPs had been elected to Westminster and the party has won another term in Holyrood - I'd have thought we were back in business.  It's hard to realistically envisage a better set of circumstances but we've barely moved forward an inch.

2 hours ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

Such a 2014 feel about today, hope disintegrated, maybe I am in the wrong party but will give it a year or so

I'm torn between resigning from the party and giving it a wee while longer, in the hope that I might get the opportunity to elect his replacement.

Who he has around him will be crucial. If he retains the services of Sturgeon's nodding dog doolies then he's fucked. She carried that cabinet for years but he - and he would possibly agree with this - possesses barely an ounce of her ability.

Presumably he knows how shite the Somervilles and Robisons that clutter up the cabinet are, so I wonder if he'll freshen things up. He should - I would - but on the other hand, they didn't all go out to bat for him for nothing.

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6 hours ago, scotlad said:

In the aftermath of the 2014 result I tried to imagine circumstances that might lead to another referendum in the short to medium term. If you'd told me then that in a little over five years we'd have had not one but two Tory majority governments, the UK had voted to leave the EU and Boris Johnson would be PM of the UK - all while dozens of SNP MPs had been elected to Westminster and the party has won another term in Holyrood - I'd have thought we were back in business.  It's hard to realistically envisage a better set of circumstances but we've barely moved forward an inch.

I'm torn between resigning from the party and giving it a wee while longer, in the hope that I might get the opportunity to elect his replacement.

Who he has around him will be crucial. If he retains the services of Sturgeon's nodding dog doolies then he's fucked. She carried that cabinet for years but he - and he would possibly agree with this - possesses barely an ounce of her ability.

Presumably he knows how shite the Somervilles and Robisons that clutter up the cabinet are, so I wonder if he'll freshen things up. He should - I would - but on the other hand, they didn't all go out to bat for him for nothing.

There is nothing the SNP or any pro-independence party can do to gain independence. The Supreme Court ruling showed us that. The disenchantment should be saved for the undemocratic Westminster governments and for sub-servient Scots who.love sponging off Westminster and living in chains with glaikit looks on their faces.

The only clear plan needs strong leadership and commitment to the cause. Make the next Scottish Election a defacto independence referendum and if a majority of seats are won by pro-independence parties then declare independence. Throw a spanner in the works and see how Westminster reacts and make the world sit up and take notice of how undemocractically Scots are being treated by the unionists.

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8 hours ago, Malcolm said:


I think it’s all over for the SNP.  the had their peak in 2014.  Kate Forbes would have been far more popular with the electorate and a more formidable political opponent.

it will pan out like this is my guess….

The SNP will lose a section of voters and members instantly as they realise the party have  are a huge error. Humza will do all the things that appeal to the left… challenge the GRR, etc.  he will be unsuccessful and slapped down by the Uk government.  

the Uk election will happen where the snp will probably drop a few seats.  Humza will be dealing with disillusionment in the party blaming Westminster for everything. Momentum will be against him.

The next Scottish election will happen and he won’t have a majority even with the greens.  There will be much wailing and gnashing of teeth within the party of “how could this have happened”.

we will be left with a hung parliament and the snp will be bigger than it was back in the 80s but a shadow of recent times.
 


 

I unfortunately agree.  It wouldn't have mattered who landed the job.  Like a new chocolate bar introduced, it has it's growth in sales, then the market matures and then it declines.  The SNP are now in decline.  Maybe a leader with a huge personality could have helped but we don't have one.  Independence is like it has always been.  A romantic pipe dream and nothing more now.  The unionists in this country know that and turning the screw.  I feel like fucking of now (not from the Board so dinna get excited!).  Pissed off this morning though.  Might join Alba.

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7 hours ago, scotlad said:

 

I'm torn between resigning from the party and giving it a wee while longer, in the hope that I might get the opportunity to elect his replacement.

Who he has around him will be crucial. If he retains the services of Sturgeon's nodding dog doolies then he's fucked. She carried that cabinet for years but he - and he would possibly agree with this - possesses barely an ounce of her ability.

Presumably he knows how shite the Somervilles and Robisons that clutter up the cabinet are, so I wonder if he'll freshen things up. He should - I would - but on the other hand, they didn't all go out to bat for him for nothing.

Thats where I am. I have a reasonable suspicion the SNP might go through a Liz Truss situation, though I think Humza will last a bit longer. I then think Kate Forbes will be our Rishi Sunak in as much as there is a realisation the party chose the wrong person. That is making me hang on in the hope we have another bite at the cherry of SNP leader.  I am also forever hopeful some miracle happens and Humza has been hiding his light under a bushel,  but I would put my money on a 5-0 Scotland win tonight before betting on that 🙄

I would also not write off a Tory resurgence down south. Sunak seems to have steadied the ship there. I dont think that  a Labour shoo in is guaranteed..

Made the mistake of listening to Radio Scotland in the car there. Jackie Baillie 😡😡 George Bowie is a lot better for your blood pressure. 

 

 

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6 minutes ago, TDYER63 said:

Thats where I am. I have a reasonable suspicion the SNP might go through a Liz Truss situation, though I think Humza will last a bit longer. I then think Kate Forbes will be our Rishi Sunak in as much as there is a realisation the party chose the wrong person. That is making me hang on in the hope we have another bite at the cherry of SNP leader.  I am also forever hopeful some miracle happens and Humza has been hiding his light under a bushel,  but I would put my money on a 5-0 Scotland win tonight before betting on that 🙄

I would also not write off a Tory resurgence down south. Sunak seems to have steadied the ship there. I dont think that  a Labour shoo in is guaranteed..

Made the mistake of listening to Radio Scotland in the car there. Jackie Baillie 😡😡 George Bowie is a lot better for your blood pressure. 

 

 

I haven't listened to bbc radio Scotland out with football since 2014. Its blood boiling nonsense

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11 minutes ago, exile said:

Seems there is a lot of defeatism out there, before a ball has been kicked.

Agreed but it is understandable given Humza Yousuf's track record. But I know one thing - a unionist party will NEVER get my vote. I shall stick with SNP and Alba become more of an option too before I'd ever consider any other option.

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8 hours ago, AlfieMoon said:

I think in terms of Westminster, SNP will probably shed seats. Their MP’s aren’t able to do much and folk will be drawn to backing the winner as Labour head for victory. 
 

In terms of Holyrood, the interesting balance will be the list votes. If SNP can maintain a high 2nd vote percentage, they’ll still be in a decent position to limit damage from constituency seats losses. 
 

All if’s, but’s and maybe’s for a while yet though and a lot to happen before then. 

I would be surprised if humza reaches the next election

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7 hours ago, scotlad said:

In the aftermath of the 2014 result I tried to imagine circumstances that might lead to another referendum in the short to medium term. If you'd told me then that in a little over five years we'd have had not one but two Tory majority governments, the UK had voted to leave the EU and Boris Johnson would be PM of the UK - all while dozens of SNP MPs had been elected to Westminster and the party has won another term in Holyrood - I'd have thought we were back in business.  It's hard to realistically envisage a better set of circumstances but we've barely moved forward an inch.

I'm torn between resigning from the party and giving it a wee while longer, in the hope that I might get the opportunity to elect his replacement.

Who he has around him will be crucial. If he retains the services of Sturgeon's nodding dog doolies then he's fucked. She carried that cabinet for years but he - and he would possibly agree with this - possesses barely an ounce of her ability.

Presumably he knows how shite the Somervilles and Robisons that clutter up the cabinet are, so I wonder if he'll freshen things up. He should - I would - but on the other hand, they didn't all go out to bat for him for nothing.

Give it a while longer, re-evaluate in a few weeks, a lot can happen

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35 minutes ago, TDYER63 said:

Thats where I am. I have a reasonable suspicion the SNP might go through a Liz Truss situation, though I think Humza will last a bit longer. I then think Kate Forbes will be our Rishi Sunak in as much as there is a realisation the party chose the wrong person. That is making me hang on in the hope we have another bite at the cherry of SNP leader.  I am also forever hopeful some miracle happens and Humza has been hiding his light under a bushel,  but I would put my money on a 5-0 Scotland win tonight before betting on that 🙄

I would also not write off a Tory resurgence down south. Sunak seems to have steadied the ship there. I dont think that  a Labour shoo in is guaranteed..

Made the mistake of listening to Radio Scotland in the car there. Jackie Baillie 😡😡 George Bowie is a lot better for your blood pressure. 

 

 

That’s not really a good comparison.   Truss was the choice of the members but not the parliamentary party. Humza is the choice of the members - albeit a narrow majority - and the parliamentary party.  Truss implemented a reckless and radical set of policies that in some cases were a complete 180 from the manifesto they’d been elected on, Humza, by all accounts, is the continuity candidate.   He might ultimately make an arse of it but if you’re holding out for some rapid turnaround and Kate Forbes riding into save the day, you’ll be waiting along time. 

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12 minutes ago, aaid said:

That’s not really a good comparison.   Truss was the choice of the members but not the parliamentary party. Humza is the choice of the members - albeit a narrow majority - and the parliamentary party.  Truss implemented a reckless and radical set of policies that in some cases were a complete 180 from the manifesto they’d been elected on, Humza, by all accounts, is the continuity candidate.   He might ultimately make an arse of it but if you’re holding out for some rapid turnaround and Kate Forbes riding into save the day, you’ll be waiting along time. 

Oh you heard it from aaid, it’s not a good comparison, what a roaster. One good thing from this election is that most folk realise now what you are

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1 hour ago, TDYER63 said:

Thats where I am. I have a reasonable suspicion the SNP might go through a Liz Truss situation, though I think Humza will last a bit longer. I then think Kate Forbes will be our Rishi Sunak in as much as there is a realisation the party chose the wrong person. That is making me hang on in the hope we have another bite at the cherry of SNP leader.  I am also forever hopeful some miracle happens and Humza has been hiding his light under a bushel,  but I would put my money on a 5-0 Scotland win tonight before betting on that 🙄

I would also not write off a Tory resurgence down south. Sunak seems to have steadied the ship there. I dont think that  a Labour shoo in is guaranteed..

Made the mistake of listening to Radio Scotland in the car there. Jackie Baillie 😡😡 George Bowie is a lot better for your blood pressure. 

 

 

I'm with you on that one. I'm not convinced that Labour will just breeze into power as easily as some of them (and the media) seem to think. There is every chance of a hung parliament, and just maybe The Knight of the Bath will need some help from SNP MPs to get him into power? To me, that is the only flicker of light on the horizon at present which could push us towards another referendum. 

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Underwhelming however, you just never know

Personally, I need to see something different being done in terms of independence - A good start would be rubbishing (Calling out) all the deliberate dismissive lies emanating from the jaws of unionists / a compliant media - I can't remember that ever being done with the purpose or intent independence will require

More of the same 'continuity' hiding (Can kicking) amongst this absolute shit show of UK wont cut it for me

Lets see what the next few months bring.......

 

 

 

 

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Humzas cabinet will be interesting, will it have the lightweights of Todd,Somerville, ect or have the best talent at his disposal? A wee bit of a headache for humza as if he places Forbes at the top of government again then she will outshine him but he needs every bit of help he can get and Forbes supporters onboard,, any idea when he will name his cabinet… it will be very interesting 

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13 minutes ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

Humzas cabinet will be interesting, will it have the lightweights of Todd,Somerville, ect or have the best talent at his disposal? A wee bit of a headache for humza as if he places Forbes at the top of government again then she will outshine him but he needs every bit of help he can get and Forbes supporters onboard,, any idea when he will name his cabinet… it will be very interesting 

Almost certain it will be Angus Robertson as his sidekick considering the shimmy shamming he did to get back in the Scottish Parliament and the record number of times he said he was voting for Yousaf

The MSP roasters that endorsed him will also be there - MacPherson, Gray, Gilruth, McAllan, McKelvie etc

He has a get out to not including Forbes as she is still on maternity leave

 

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3 hours ago, Caledonian Craig said:

There is nothing the SNP or any pro-independence party can do to gain independence. The Supreme Court ruling showed us that. The disenchantment should be saved for the undemocratic Westminster governments and for sub-servient Scots who.love sponging off Westminster and living in chains with glaikit looks on their faces.

The only clear plan needs strong leadership and commitment to the cause. Make the next Scottish Election a defacto independence referendum and if a majority of seats are won by pro-independence parties then declare independence. Throw a spanner in the works and see how Westminster reacts and make the world sit up and take notice of how undemocractically Scots are being treated by the unionists.

This idea of declaring independence without a majority of votes would be a disgrace and a treacherous act against our own people.

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1 hour ago, Orraloon said:

I'm with you on that one. I'm not convinced that Labour will just breeze into power as easily as some of them (and the media) seem to think. There is every chance of a hung parliament, and just maybe The Knight of the Bath will need some help from SNP MPs to get him into power? To me, that is the only flicker of light on the horizon at present which could push us towards another referendum. 

I agree with this.  I think that the polls will narrow between Labour and the Tories as the election gets closer.  Labour aren't under any scrutiny right now - that will change - and I'm not sure that they can go all the way without taking a position on anything.  I still think Labour will be the largest party but maybe without an overall majority - whether they'll deal with the SNP is another matter.    Interestingly, the Lib Dems don't seem to be making much headway in England, which might help the Tories to hang on to some seats where the Lib Dems are second and Labour a poor third.

The Scottish results are a lot more complex though.   With one party being so dominant - the SNP - and consistently polling in the 40s, a change of a few % either way can have a relatively large shift either way.  That's because the SNP are either first or second in each seat.   As an example.  In 2015, the SNP had 50% of the vote and won 56 seats.  In 2019 they had 45% of the vote and won 48 seats, current polling with them on 40% shows them picking up 38 seats.  So you get and idea of the swing.  +- 5% gives you +-9 seats (or 15% of the seats).   That's a factor of how FPTP works in the current state of play in Scotland.

Conversely for Holyrood elections it has the opposite effect, if the SNP were to lose constituency seats to Labour then you could almost guarantee that they would pick up list seats to compensate and also where Labour would constituencies they'd lose list seats.  

 For some of the more extreme predictions to happen, the political landscape in Scotland would have to revert to pre-2007 levels and with the constitution being the defining theme of Scottish politics, I don't see that happening. 

 

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39 minutes ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

Humzas cabinet will be interesting, will it have the lightweights of Todd,Somerville, ect or have the best talent at his disposal? A wee bit of a headache for humza as if he places Forbes at the top of government again then she will outshine him but he needs every bit of help he can get and Forbes supporters onboard,, any idea when he will name his cabinet… it will be very interesting 

If Kate has any plans for a long term career in politics, then she will want to be as close to the heart of government as she can be. At the moment she is set up to be the next leader of the SNP. Coincidentally, she is almost the same age as Nicola was when she missed out first time round. She should be seen to support Humza as best she can, and continue to do as good a job as possible in any ministerial post she is given. In a few years time she could be the only candidate to replace him. If she refuses to serve in his cabinet she will probably just drift off into obscurity.

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3 minutes ago, Orraloon said:

If Kate has any plans for a long term career in politics, then she will want to be as close to the heart of government as she can be. At the moment she is set up to be the next leader of the SNP. Coincidentally, she is almost the same age as Nicola was when she missed out first time round. She should be seen to support Humza as best she can, and continue to do as good a job as possible in any ministerial post she is given. In a few years time she could be the only candidate to replace him. If she refuses to serve in his cabinet she will probably just drift off into obscurity.

I agree.

From within the party she cannot alienate herself from the core of the party. Ash Regan did that and her leadership campaign was dead in the water as a result. Unity is needed now. Humza would do well to build bridges with her and work together to rebuild.

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