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9 minutes ago, Ally Bongo said:

This worries me as saying this before the result, to me, infers that he has won

 
I don't think there's any chance Humza Yousaf has won the SNP leadership election legitimately. But this morning I'm deeply worried that those still controlling the party have absolutely nothing left to lose by fixing it in his favour.

Alternatively they might be panicking that he doesn't have the numbers and are trying one last roll of the dice.

I've a horrible feeling that he has won though.  🙁

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22 hours ago, Ally Bongo said:

If Humza knows then others will - how does he know he has a lead ?

https://archive.is/XJc3c

Humza Yousaf admitted “transfers could end up playing a part” but reaffirmed his main strategy was to get first preferences.
He said: “Well, my strategy has been to try to get as many first preferences as possible, obviously I have a significant lead.

this is just stirring the pot from the Wings Anon Shamen and it's quite sad to see this kind of thing take hold.  It's a turn of phrase based on the uncontroversial fact he believes he's the leading candidate based on presumably meeting hundreds of members in the last few weeks and taking the temperature from aides in various branches.

if Salmond had said the same in 2004, you wouldn't be making this insinuation.

If a unionist had said in 2012 "we're obviously ahead", two years before the vote, nobody would suggest they know the result. 

this is just nonsense to undermine the result.  

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17 hours ago, vanderark14 said:

If humza wins you can kiss goodbye to independence for a long time. I could honestly see him losing loads of seats in elections too

Agreed.

 

17 hours ago, aaid said:

Actually, I think the SNP will lose seats regardless of who wins, the question remains how many and how much long term damage will be caused.  

Agreed. I think humza could lose an election though. Forbes wouldn't. 

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4 minutes ago, Squirrelhumper said:

Agreed.

 

Agreed. I think humza could lose an election though. Forbes wouldn't. 

hmmm. In my view, without an independence mandate on the table, I think they possibly all could lose an election.  I think those pushing Forbes are minimising the damage she could do in SNP's working class heartlands (see old Labour heartlands).  Labour will simply push a tartan tory narrative and need for change which may resonate with the right campaign. I think it would be unfair but would be a potent gambit for them.

I can already see people flirting with Labour if independence is effectively off the table.

It's hard really to see any of them doing particularly well at this moment. As much to do with the inevitable disunity riven through all their candidatures for varying reasons as the obvious cliff edge fall in talent.  Who knows, they might surprise us!

  

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2 minutes ago, PapofGlencoe said:

hmmm. In my view, without an independence mandate on the table, I think they possibly all could lose an election.  I think those pushing Forbes are minimising the damage she could do in SNP's working class heartlands (see old Labour heartlands).  Labour will simply push a tartan tory narrative and need for change which may resonate with the right campaign. I think it would be unfair but would be a potent gambit for them.

I can already see people flirting with Labour if independence is effectively off the table.

It's hard really to see any of them doing particularly well at this moment. As much to do with the inevitable disunity riven through all their candidatures for varying reasons as the obvious cliff edge fall in talent.  Who knows, they might surprise us!

  

Funnily enough, just watching Sky News and the reporter was doing a vox pop outside a cafe in the West End of Glasgow, which I appreciate has its own dynamic., no idea if they were SNP members or even voters.   Anyway, I imagine the responses would be surprising for people outwith Scotland.   No one mentioned a particular candidate by name but it’s clear - because that’s what they said - all their priorities were rights for refugees, LGBTQ rights, independence as well as the domestic agenda.  Flipped onto to Rishi Sunak in Chelmsford talking about banning laughing gas and targeted policing - another world.

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6 minutes ago, PapofGlencoe said:

hmmm. In my view, without an independence mandate on the table, I think they possibly all could lose an election.  I think those pushing Forbes are minimising the damage she could do in SNP's working class heartlands (see old Labour heartlands).  Labour will simply push a tartan tory narrative and need for change which may resonate with the right campaign. I think it would be unfair but would be a potent gambit for them.

I can already see people flirting with Labour if independence is effectively off the table.

It's hard really to see any of them doing particularly well at this moment. As much to do with the inevitable disunity riven through all their candidatures for varying reasons as the obvious cliff edge fall in talent.  Who knows, they might surprise us!

  

Biggest issue is that a lot of folk (myself included) will just not vote if Humza get's in. Couldn't bring myself to vote for him and none of of the other parties are getting my vote. 

I really hope it's Forbes but if it's Humza i really dispair. Turkey's voting for Christmas. He would lose seats by the dozen. 

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1 minute ago, aaid said:

Funnily enough, just watching Sky News and the reporter was doing a vox pop outside a cafe in the West End of Glasgow, which I appreciate has its own dynamic., no idea if they were SNP members or even voters.   Anyway, I imagine the responses would be surprising for people outwith Scotland.   No one mentioned a particular candidate by name but it’s clear - because that’s what they said - all their priorities were rights for refugees, LGBTQ rights, independence as well as the domestic agenda.  Flipped onto to Rishi Sunak in Chelmsford talking about banning laughing gas and targeted policing - another world.

If they had gone to Bridgeton they'd have got a completely different response unfortunately. 

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1 minute ago, Squirrelhumper said:

Biggest issue is that a lot of folk (myself included) will just not vote if Humza get's in. Couldn't bring myself to vote for him and none of of the other parties are getting my vote. 

I really hope it's Forbes but if it's Humza i really dispair. Turkey's voting for Christmas. He would lose seats by the dozen. 

Ultimately, perhaps that's what's needed to go forward again

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3 minutes ago, aaid said:

Funnily enough, just watching Sky News and the reporter was doing a vox pop outside a cafe in the West End of Glasgow, which I appreciate has its own dynamic., no idea if they were SNP members or even voters.   Anyway, I imagine the responses would be surprising for people outwith Scotland.   No one mentioned a particular candidate by name but it’s clear - because that’s what they said - all their priorities were rights for refugees, LGBTQ rights, independence as well as the domestic agenda.  Flipped onto to Rishi Sunak in Chelmsford talking about banning laughing gas and targeted policing - another world.

aye, no harm to them but it's not Falkirk High st or even Buchanan st.  half of them probably wouldn't even have a vote here in a few years.

saying that though i do think a leader actively disliked by the luvvies vote comes with its dangers.  they may be patronising but they will have a wider influence.

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1 minute ago, PapofGlencoe said:

aye, no harm to them but it's not Falkirk High st or even Buchanan st.  half of them probably wouldn't even have a vote here in a few years.

I don’t think they were students and they all had Scottish accents - not that that’s important.   The dynamic I was talking about was political.

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23 minutes ago, PapofGlencoe said:

I think those pushing Forbes are minimising the damage she could do in SNP's working class heartlands (see old Labour heartlands).  Labour will simply push a tartan tory narrative and need for change which may resonate with the right campaign.

You may have a point. But the message might be diluted a bit given that the Labour Party is currently lead by an actual knight: Sir Keir Starmer?

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One thing for sure that if Humza is announced the winner, Unionists won't need to use up their remaining stocks of laughing gas

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1 minute ago, aaid said:

I don’t think they were students and they all had Scottish accents - not that that’s important.   The dynamic I was talking about was political.

actual Scottish people on a street, hill or town on the BBC. turned a corner!

 

17 minutes ago, mcguffin said:

You may have a point. But the message might be diluted a bit given that the Labour Party is currently lead by an actual knight: Sir Keir Starmer?

no me you need to convince!  It'll be unfair on her but I can already feel people I know saying, "if indy is off the table, why am i voting SNP?"  Take away their ever so slightly more progressive values too?  Identity crisis, division, defeat.  Either slowly or quickly.  This being allowing themselves to be boxed into a perceived oh-so-pragmatic indy strategy is a fools errand.  Labour are licking their lips the defacto vote/indy is off the table.  Take away indy and you're as well voting for Labour to help them defeat the Tories in a UK election. 

 

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6 minutes ago, PapofGlencoe said:

actual Scottish people on a street, hill or town on the BBC. turned a corner!

 

It was Sky News numb nuts, maybe watch it before jumping to false assumptions and commenting. 

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Just now, aaid said:

It was Sky News numb nuts, maybe watch it before jumping to false assumptions and commenting. 

erm...okay...  it was a small and fairly irrelevant mistake, I wasn't being entirely serious...

😅

jeewiz, is that me a numbnuts now.  a new one for me, better tell the wife.

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5 minutes ago, TDYER63 said:

Ffs aaid , totally unnecessary. It was obvious he was just having at pop at the BBC. 

His first post was, presumably because I mentioned that it was the West End of Glasgow, was to dismiss them as “probably not having a vote here in a couple of years” i.e. students.  In fact, one was - I presume - a mother with a kid in a buggy.   Two others were a couple of women in their - I guess - late 20s, and a third was a bloke in in - again, I guess, - his early 40s.

Maybe you should read the totality of a conversation before jumping in and commenting. Just an observation.  

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5 minutes ago, aaid said:

His first post was, presumably because I mentioned that it was the West End of Glasgow, was to dismiss them as “probably not having a vote here in a couple of years” i.e. students.  In fact, one was - I presume - a mother with a kid in a buggy.   Two others were a couple of women in their - I guess - late 20s, and a third was a bloke in in - again, I guess, - his early 40s.

Maybe you should read the totality of a conversation before jumping in and commenting. Just an observation.  

I did read the totality of the conversation and stand by my comment. Maybe you should recognise humour rather than dive in on the defensive. Just an observation. 

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14 minutes ago, aaid said:

His first post was, presumably because I mentioned that it was the West End of Glasgow, was to dismiss them as “probably not having a vote here in a couple of years” i.e. students.  In fact, one was - I presume - a mother with a kid in a buggy.   Two others were a couple of women in their - I guess - late 20s, and a third was a bloke in in - again, I guess, - his early 40s.

Maybe you should read the totality of a conversation before jumping in and commenting. Just an observation.  

maybe you should take your own advice.  just an observation.  I wasn't dismissing it entirely, i was agreeing it's got issues as a demographic.. which you also said..if you read the thread in it's entirety...😕

can't believe you're doubling down on a fairly innocuous and tongue in cheek comment.  😄

have you seen the results aaidy or got out the wrong side of the bed this morning?  for what it's worth, im not fussed.  I quite like hearing what you've got to say. wouldn't be interesting if we all agreed all the time.

Edited by PapofGlencoe
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