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SNP leadership election


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Of the confirmed/possible candidates, I think Kate Forbes will win if she stands. I'm not sure she will though, given she's on maternity leave and may take a bit of time to recalibrate with frontline politics. Her religious views may grate with some in the party however.

Angus Robertson clearly has the highest profile of the potential candidates and was fairly impressive in PMQs at Westminster, but I don't see him as a party leader or First Minister. I think he'd be a good candidate for Foreign or Defence Secterary if we were independent, but not FM; too 'managerial' is the best term I can think of.

Humza Yousaf seems to have risen through the party without much obvious public achievement; he could be one that's better behind the scenes than in the leadership role. I'm surprised by the level of nominations he's already received.

Ash Regan is someone I have little-to-no knowledge of, tbh, but her comments about independence strategy are encouraging. Could be a bit of a wildcard, especially the 'independence majority at any Westminster/Holyrood election for negotiations' plan. An independence convention could also refocus minds back on the constitution rather than the gender issue which has been divisive within the independence camp. Her policy of abandoning the Gender Reform Act may cause more divisions.

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9 hours ago, aaid said:

It’s an impossible question to answer because it’s impossible to gauge what people think unless you ask them.  In 2014 there was some polling done, I think Rangers fans were generally around the same level as the rest of the population.   Those who shout and wave banners get the most attention.   Do all Celtic fans ascribe to the Green Brigade’s viewpoint and have problems spelling?  

There was at least one Panelbase/Wings Over Scotland poll (figures from the Feb 2017 poll) which had crosstabs for football team supported (Celtic, Rangers, other, none) due to asking questions about the OBFA.

From those numbers, Celtic fans voted 62% Yes in 2014, with Rangers fans at 39% Yes (others 51% and none 40% respectively). Football fans in general voted 49% Yes. This is very much what I'd expect given the demographic background of the clubs and football supporters more generally. Of course, it tells nothing about the difference between those who have season tickets, those who only go occassionally, etc.

2016 SNP constituency support was: Celtic 51%, Rangers 39%, others 46%, none 48%. Labour retained around 30% support for both Glasgow clubs.

For the 2016 referendum, the remain figures were: Celtic 58%, Rangers 60%, others 64%, none 58%. The national figure in the poll was 59%, compared to 62% in the actual referendum.

I would caution about the much larger margin for error with these figures, but look accurate from an indicative perspective.

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1 hour ago, phart said:

That's a Frankie Boyle line from one of his shows. He was talking about an audience member in a back and forth though.  

 

If you look at the timeline of the guy, it’s consistent.  I don’t get the impression he’s a Frankie Boyle fan either.  His list of people he’s following is pretty one dimensional.  He does seem to think he’s something of a character though. 

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1 hour ago, aaid said:

If you look at the timeline of the guy, it’s consistent.  I don’t get the impression he’s a Frankie Boyle fan either.  His list of people he’s following is pretty one dimensional.  He does seem to think he’s something of a character though. 

I'd rather not look. It's just a direct quote of something Frankie Boyle said in one of his standup sets to a property lawyer. I was just pointing out he was a plagerist on top of being a fanny.

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Just now, AlfieMoon said:

Very surprised at Angus Robertson. 


If Kate Forbes doesn’t stand now I think the SNP are in trouble. 

 

Whoever ends up as SNP leader I'm increasingly of the opinion that SNP should allow Labour, Tories or Lib Dems to be new FM. It's about time some of those charlatans were exposed. Ross would have to take responsibility for his puppet masters in Westminster and Sarwar and ACH wouldn't have the luxury of cheap shots from the sidelines.

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3 minutes ago, Hertsscot said:

Whoever ends up as SNP leader I'm increasingly of the opinion that SNP should allow Labour, Tories or Lib Dems to be new FM. It's about time some of those charlatans were exposed. Ross would have to take responsibility for his puppet masters in Westminster and Sarwar and ACH wouldn't have the luxury of cheap shots from the sidelines.

Fuck that. 

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1 minute ago, aaid said:

She just has.  

Just spotted that.  Fairly certain she will win the contest.

You just hope that the wider public can ignore the media and opposition howling at the moon about her faith. I’m sure the arch enemies of the opposition will go all in to try and use it to taint her, as has already started. Hopefully nobody in the leadership campaign is dirty enough to have a go about it.  

People should judge her on her actions, capabilities and politics/policies. If the middle ground and undecided voters give her a fair crack of the whip I’m sure she can do very well. 

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1 minute ago, AlfieMoon said:

Just spotted that.  Fairly certain she will win the contest.

You just hope that the wider public can ignore the media and opposition howling at the moon about her faith. I’m sure the arch enemies of the opposition will go all in to try and use it to taint her, as has already started. Hopefully nobody in the leadership campaign is dirty enough to have a go about it.  

People should judge her on her actions, capabilities and politics/policies. If the middle ground and undecided voters give her a fair crack of the whip I’m sure she can do very well. 

Tbf nobody would moan about her faith if it wasn't strict Christianity. 

As long as it doesn't affect her decision making then there should he no issues. 

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It’s possible that more neutral members of the public will get wise to the constant attack on SNP leaders by the media . It might actually have the reverse effect of what  its trying to achieve. Strong unionists will be happy but others might not be that impressed. Especially  if a more  ‘ likeable’ person than NS is elected. Only pretty low life would have a go about someone’s religion unless it was extreme. 

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11 minutes ago, TDYER63 said:

It’s possible that more neutral members of the public will get wise to the constant attack on SNP leaders by the media . It might actually have the reverse effect of what  its trying to achieve. Strong unionists will be happy but others might not be that impressed. Especially  if a more  ‘ likeable’ person than NS is elected. Only pretty low life would have a go about someone’s religion unless it was extreme. 

Yeah I think (hope) this is a good point.  
 

There’s a line drawn under that ‘I hate that Alex Salmond’, ‘I hate that Nicola Sturgeon’ soundbite.  
 

This is a new, fresh face from a completely new generation.  If people trot out the same tired abuse then it just shows them up for what we know - that they actually hate the SNP/independence. For neutral members of the public that realisation could be really of benefit to the SNP. 

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1 minute ago, AlfieMoon said:

Yeah I think (hope) this is a good point.  
 

There’s a line drawn under that ‘I hate that Alex Salmond’, ‘I hate that Nicola Sturgeon’ soundbite.  
 

This is a new, fresh face from a completely new generation.  If people trot out the same tired abuse then it just shows them up for what we know - that they actually hate the SNP/independence. For neutral members of the public that realisation could be really of benefit to the SNP. 

In the 2014 referendum my husband was undecided. He finally voted Yes as he was fed up of the overbearing criticism aimed at the Yes campaign. Constant negativity does have an effect. 

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So - are those that were sure it would be a stitch up to let Robertson win going to shut the fuck up for a bit now that another of their conspiracies has been busted ?

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3 minutes ago, Ally Bongo said:

So - are those that were sure it would be a stitch up to let Robertson win going to shut the fuck up for a bit now that another of their conspiracies has been busted ?

I doubt it.  They'll probably use him not standing as proof of his venailty.

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