Indyref 2 (2)

[hampden_loon2878]

Sturgeons parting gift 

[aaid]

3 minutes ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

Sturgeons parting gift 

A nasty leadership campaign going on and Alba are still doing nothing.

[hampden_loon2878]

2 hours ago, aaid said:

A nasty leadership campaign going on and Alba are still doing nothing.

why concentrate on alba at the moment? ur lady sturgeon has completely fucked the party

[aaid]

27 minutes ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

why concentrate on alba at the moment? ur lady sturgeon has completely fucked the party

Given everything you’ve said over the last two years, all your claims, in a North East seat this should be manna from heaven for Alba and yet they get a massive 3.8% of the vote. 

[stocky]

3 hours ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

Sturgeons parting gift 

Who held seat before....

[Clyde1998]

3 minutes ago, stocky said:

Who held seat before....

It was a Conservative vacancy, but the outcome in 2022 was SNP 2, Lab 1, Con 1.

[aaid]

19 minutes ago, stocky said:

Who held seat before....

STV by-elections don’t translate well to the multi-member ward system used in the full council elections.   In this case the by-election was because of the death of a Conservative councillor so technically this is a Labour gain from Tory. 

Ballot Box Scotland was predicting this to be a “lean SNP” seat although did say that it was possible might pick it up.

It would obviously be better if the SNP had won but the fact that Labour won the seat on the 8th round is neither that surprising nor is it as big a disaster as Hampden Loon is saying.  Hampden Loon knows this very well as he obsesses over council by-elections. 

By the looks of things the SNP vote didn’t turn out.  It’ll be interesting to see the transfer report.  

Edited February 24, 2023 by aaid

[stocky]

25 minutes ago, aaid said:

STV by-elections don’t translate well to the multi-member ward system used in the full council elections.   In this case the by-election was because of the death of a Conservative councillor so technically this is a Labour gain from Tory. 

Ballot Box Scotland was predicting this to be a “lean SNP” seat although did say that it was possible might pick it up.

It would obviously be better if the SNP had won but the fact that Labour won the seat on the 8th round is neither that surprising nor is it as big a disaster as Hampden Loon is saying.  Hampden Loon knows this very well as he obsesses over council by-elections. 

By the looks of things the SNP vote didn’t turn out.  It’ll be interesting to see the transfer report.  

Cheers for that.

Thought it would be something along those lines 

Snp would probably have won if the boss hadn't resigned last week.

 

Still wouldn't have made much difference to overall council tho.

 

 

[aaid]

Just now, stocky said:

 

Snp would probably have won if the boss hadn't resigned last week.

Who knows. 

[Clyde1998]

55 minutes ago, aaid said:

STV by-elections don’t translate well to the multi-member ward system used in the full council elections.   In this case the by-election was because of the death of a Conservative councillor so technically this is a Labour gain from Tory. 

Ballot Box Scotland was predicting this to be a “lean SNP” seat although did say that it was possible might pick it up.

It would obviously be better if the SNP had won but the fact that Labour won the seat on the 8th round is neither that surprising nor is it as big a disaster as Hampden Loon is saying.  Hampden Loon knows this very well as he obsesses over council by-elections. 

By the looks of things the SNP vote didn’t turn out.  It’ll be interesting to see the transfer report.  

Just looking at the PDF fae the council website, there didn't seem to be much of a surprise at each stage (the CSV of preferences aren't up yet, so may show a slightly different picture - as it will include the third, etc. preferences of other parties from the third stage onwards).

The transfer percentages at each stage were:

1. Start
2. Ind (52 votes) - Family 15.4%; LDm 15.4%; Lab 11.5%; SNP 11.5%; Grn 9.6%; Alba 5.8%; Con 3.8%; none 26.9%
3. Family (68) - Lab 32.4%; Con 13.2%; Grn 7.4%; LDm 5.9%; SNP 5.9%; Alba 2.9%; none 32.4%
4. Grn (121) - SNP 39.7%; Lab 22.3%; LDm 13.2%; Alba 6.6%; Con 3.3%; none 14.9%
5. Alba (191) - SNP 47.6%; Lab 12.6%; Con 5.8%; LDm 5.8%; none 28.3%
6. LDm (491) - Lab 31.2%; Con 19.1%; SNP 14.3%; none 35.4%
7. Con (1310) - Lab 39.1%; SNP 4.2%; none 56.7%

The SNP were ahead until the final stage.

[aaid]

16 minutes ago, Clyde1998 said:

Just looking at the PDF fae the council website, there didn't seem to be much of a surprise at each stage (the CSV of preferences aren't up yet, so may show a slightly different picture - as it will include the third, etc. preferences of other parties from the third stage onwards).

The transfer percentages at each stage were:

1. Start
2. Ind (52 votes) - Family 15.4%; LDm 15.4%; Lab 11.5%; SNP 11.5%; Grn 9.6%; Alba 5.8%; Con 3.8%; none 26.9%
3. Family (68) - Lab 32.4%; Con 13.2%; Grn 7.4%; LDm 5.9%; SNP 5.9%; Alba 2.9%; none 32.4%
4. Grn (121) - SNP 39.7%; Lab 22.3%; LDm 13.2%; Alba 6.6%; Con 3.3%; none 14.9%
5. Alba (191) - SNP 47.6%; Lab 12.6%; Con 5.8%; LDm 5.8%; none 28.3%
6. LDm (491) - Lab 31.2%; Con 19.1%; SNP 14.3%; none 35.4%
7. Con (1310) - Lab 39.1%; SNP 4.2%; none 56.7%

The SNP were ahead until the final stage.

Edit. Oops, that’s what you did post.  Percentages confused me. 

Edited February 24, 2023 by aaid

[Clyde1998]

2 minutes ago, aaid said:

More interested in where the transfers have gone to.   Just so I can blame it on Alba not transferring to the SNP 😂🫤😂

That is where they've gone to - ie. 47.6% of the Alba transfers went to the SNP, etc. 😉

Unless I've understood what you meant by that.

[aaid]

5 minutes ago, Clyde1998 said:

That is where they've gone to - ie. 47.6% of the Alba transfers went to the SNP, etc. 😉

Unless I've understood what you meant by that.

Thanks, you’ve exposed my fuck-up which I thought I’d have gotten away with 😂

It looks like it’s come down to Tory transfers to Labour, all the other transfers are pretty insignificant.  In an Aberdeen council election that’s probably par for the course.

 

[Orraloon]

3 minutes ago, Clyde1998 said:

That is where they've gone to - ie. 47.6% of the Alba transfers went to the SNP, etc. 😉

Unless I've understood what you meant by that.

Looks like 54 of the 191 Alba vote didn't transfer to anyone. So, maybe they were happy to let anybody in rather than help the SNP? Or, maybe they just didn't understand the voting system? Or, maybe they would have transferred to the Greens but they were already out by that time? 😉

46 of them actively voted for unionist parties. 

[Hertsscot]

5 hours ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

Sturgeons parting gift 

I noticed turn out was 28%, down 13%. The key is not just to get people voting for one party rather than another but getting some people to vote at all. The Tory Government and mainstream media have made people even more cynical about politicians and less likely to vote yet we know the Tory vote invariably turns out.

[aaid]

4 minutes ago, Orraloon said:

Looks like 54 of the 191 Alba vote didn't transfer to anyone. So, maybe they were happy to let anybody in rather than help the SNP? Or, maybe they just didn't understand the voting system? Or, maybe they would have transferred to the Greens but they were already out by that time? 😉

46 of them actively voted for unionist parties. 

Look, I fucked up okay.  It happens sometime.   I thought that he’d posted who was removed at each stage, not the transfers.  That’s why I made the joke about me wanting to blame Alba - which was a self-deprecating dig at myself.

The reality is that all the transfers were irrelevant, the size of Tory vote transferring to Labour at the final stage is what got Labour over the line.  But it is Aberdeen Council, so that’s to be expected.

[hampden_loon2878]

3 hours ago, aaid said:

Given everything you’ve said over the last two years, all your claims, in a North East seat this should be manna from heaven for Alba and yet they get a massive 3.8% of the vote. 

When have I ever said that? I said alba serve a purpose and if the snp split,fold or go down the wrong path, alba will serve its purpose. Good to see they got more than the greens 

[hampden_loon2878]

Trends, it’s all about trends,, 

[aaid]

Just now, hampden_loon2878 said:

Trends, it’s all about trends,, 

That is the truest thing you’ve said in years. 

[Ally Bongo]

3 minutes ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

Trans, it’s all about trans,, 

 

[Malcolm]

2 hours ago, Ally Bongo said:

 

hopefully not for much longer!

I see that 🔔end Cole Hamilton is missing in action after he realised he fucked up with his undying support for “Beth” or whatever his/her name is.

[Dave78]

5 hours ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

When have I ever said that? I said alba serve a purpose and if the snp split,fold or go down the wrong path, alba will serve its purpose. Good to see they got more than the greens 

Worth remembering that Farage got his referendum (and brexit Yes vote) without getting a single MP elected.

5 hours ago, Ally Bongo said:

Trans, it’s all about trans,, 

😄

[hampden_loon2878]

Indy most certainly off the table for a while

Edited February 25, 2023 by hampden_loon2878

[vanderark14]

2 hours ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

Indy most certainly off the table for a while

Totally agree, especially after mhairi black stoked the fires of division yesterday.

[Caledonian Craig]

2 hours ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

Indy most certainly off the table for a while

Did I miss something? Was there an approved referendum from Westminster coming up that has been cancelled? No I thought not. Until a referendum is announced then independence (realistically) has always been off the table.