Indyref 2 (2)

[Ally Bongo]

1 minute ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

a very reliable source had told me of the worry the internal polling had shown a good few days prior to her resignation,, aaid said it was bullshit as he does but turns out it wasn't,, we really nead a leader to give us a united party,, get back to basics and go from there, not chasing after vote losing policies. 

https://scotgoespop.blogspot.com/2023/02/you-wont-be-surprised-to-hear-that-sun.html

[aaid]

3 minutes ago, Ally Bongo said:

https://scotgoespop.blogspot.com/2023/02/you-wont-be-surprised-to-hear-that-sun.html

So it’s essentially the Sun misrepresenting a poll and HL falling for it then.

[Dave78]

4 hours ago, aaid said:

This isn't going to be a popular opinion but I was struck the other day by something Kevin Pringle said in an interview I caught with him.

I have always viewed this as being the definition of the irresistible force meeting the immoveable object, with the irresistible force being the will of the Scottish People and the immoveable object being the UKG.   

I've never really considered that the immoveable object could not be shifted, over years it has proven not to be in numerous different cases.  However, it only moves when it feels it has no other option.  I saw someone mention a need to renew the mandate, why?, it's pretty clear that the UKG doesn't respect the current mandate or any of those election victories since 2014.  My personal view is that it's more uncomfortable for Labour to block in the same way but I don't see them being anymore amenable given the current level of support.

This brings me to the point Kevin Pringle made.  He was talking about the need to focus less on the how but rather to start to focus on the why.  He pointed to the Constitution Convention on Devolution, which started in 1989 and ultimately delivered devolution in 1999 - after an referendum win in 1997.   That referendum had a majority of 3-1 which was impossible to deny.  However, that support wasn't built up during the referendum campaign, it was done in the years before - with no democratic avenue to express that view - that was the only thing to do.

That doesn't need the SNP to be the ones doing that on their own - and probably it shouldn't be - but they are an important part of the wider movement.

The reason why the SNP membership skyrocketed in the wake of the 2014 referendum was because there were many many people who had never seen the need to join a political party or who had been members of one of the British parties and had become disillusioned by them over the years.   They recognised that the fight for independence would now be in the party political arena.   A lot of the non-aligned people who'd come to the fore in 2014 were part of that, others who had obtained a degree of influence or celebrity became very bitter and/or went on the grift.

Maybe we've all been focussed too much on the process, too impatient.  You can argue the point about whether that is the leader's fault or not but if you take the view that there is a Yes movement, then the movement needs to also look at itself.  We need to get away from this idea that seems to have settled in that there needs to be some sort of democratic event to actually do campaigning.  Its time to get back to talking to those that don't agree with us and trying to convince them.

Maybe this is why Nicola Sturgeon has stood down, she realises that no matter what she does, people have already made their minds up - fairly or unfairly - about her and she's not going to shift enough voters.

Two questions that any leadership candidate proposing a democratic event as the magic bullet needs to be asked and answer.   How can we build the support to win it decisively and if the UKG then says no - what next?

There's a lot of good stuff in this post about how to move forward, but i can't get over the waste of the last 6/7 years.

I firmly believe there was a Yes majority pre-brexit. Hell, there might be even now. But Sturgeon has failed utterly in securing that democratic event you speak of (i.e. a referendum).

On one hand i'm sad to see Sturgeon go, but on the other i'm glad we now have to face up to reality. So far the SNP have had zero answers on how to deal with the 'muscular unionism' of that immovable object, and wasted some real opportunities.

 

[aaid]

1 minute ago, Dave78 said:

There's a lot of good stuff in this post about how to move forward, but i can't get over the waste of the last 6/7 years.

I firmly believe there was a Yes majority pre-brexit. Hell, there might be even now. But Sturgeon has failed utterly in securing that democratic event you speak of (i.e. a referendum).

On one hand i'm sad to see Sturgeon go, but on the other i'm glad we now have to face up to reality. So far the SNP have had zero answers on how to deal with the 'muscular unionism' of that immovable object, and wasted some real opportunities.

 

I think that’s harsh.  Remember the one time she did get bullish immediately after the Brexit vote, she got punished at the 2017 election.   That was almost entirely down to the SNP vote not turning out, for reasons that have never been completely explained.

Hindsight vision is of course 20/20.

[Caledonian Craig]

There has been one refetendum.on Scottish independence in 300+ years and that one happened only because Westminster agreed to it. Salmond, Sturgeon and whoever follows as FM cannot get a referendum unless Westminster agrees toone which they won't. I am amazed people still do not get this.

[Dave78]

2 minutes ago, aaid said:

I think that’s harsh.  Remember the one time she did get bullish immediately after the Brexit vote, she got punished at the 2017 election.   That was almost entirely down to the SNP vote not turning out, for reasons that have never been completely explained.

Hindsight vision is of course 20/20.

Absolutely. I'm only saying this with hindsight, and it's taken me a couple of days since her resignation to come to this conclusion.

As for being bullish, i don't think she was bullish enough. I remember talking to you around the time of the Theresa May knockback ("now is not the time"), and suggested that she shouldn't have waited as long to ask for the S30. The moment should have been in that first week after the Brexit result. Have the new PM deny it, then go straight to the supreme court.

The fact it took until 2023 for the court to confirm Scotland's status as a colony baffles me. So much more could have been made of that in the heat of the brexit battle. Such a missed opportunity.

[Squirrelhumper]

40 minutes ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

i spoke about the internal polling that had gave the snp hierarchy the shits, well the latest yougov poll confirms i was correct, and before anyone says its because she has resigned, it was carried out prior to her resignation, the snp with a 3% lead over labour,, scary times 

I know i mocked those who only use polls that they "like" but there is not a hope in hell Labour will be anywhere near 3% of SNP at any point between now and the election. One freak poll apart. 

[Orraloon]

1 hour ago, Freeedom said:

how old are you? 😛

😂

[TDYER63]

56 minutes ago, Freeedom said:

It's not contradictory at all, I would have liked the SNP to be much more progressive in governing Scotland but when it comes to convincing the undecideds about independence you need to give them confidence and belief that there is a secure plan in place around issues like the economy, pensions and currency. It is in my view that independence is for everyone in the country regardless of their political persuasion. And that is an important point that the SNP have failed to get across because they think their vision is the only vision for an independent Scotland. I would want to see them propose the nationalisation of the energy sector and a much faster transition towards renewables. They need to protect people from the invidious profiteering of the oil and gas industry. That's a vote winner amongst everyone but there is a lot more they could have done to give voters confidence in independence, it doesn't necessarily have to be a left wing argument.

I'm 37, my mum is 61 and you remind me a little bit of her. She grew up in a working class household and likes to think of herself as left wing but she's not. As she has gotten older her views have shifted to the right and when I try to explain to her how much more difficult things are for my generation than it was for hers, she rolls her eyes. When she was my age she bought the house she is still living in with my dad for £145k, that property is now worth nearly half a million. Since then wages have stagnated and the cost of everything else has massively increased. When she bought the house she was a teacher and my Dad worked for the AA, I have three degrees and work in a technical job and I could never dream of affording the house they live in. Millennials and Gen Z have been shafted by the capitalist system, people of your generation who managed to get a foothold in society like my parents have assets and are largely oblivious to a lot of the difficulties in society that younger people face and nobody in the current political spectrum in Scotland is talking about it, it's a disgrace. The under 40 generation are the first generation that have actually moved more to the left as they have gotten older and that's because they are so much poorer than their parents are at the same age.

I agree with you, Scotland is not left wing at all I never suggested it was. Boomers are still very much in charge but the tide is going to shift in the next decade as my generation eventually start having more of a voice. I just hope we do not also swing to the right as we start to attain more assets.

Of course I agree with free school meals and free prescriptions, but those are policies that just scratch the surface of what we could be doing in Scotland to make peoples lives better, we need to start thinking much bigger about what we want Scotland to look like in 10, 20, 50 years. Where's the vision for our kids education, the health service, the economy, the energy sector and our whole working practice and work life balance in general? It's the job of the government to sell us all on the vision of what Scotland can be in the future, give them that and they will vote yes.

 

there should be a right wing party in favour of independence, I would be happy to see that. But lets not beat around the bush, people who are right wing and generally resistant to any kind of change, it's not easy to marry the two ideas.

😂 I will take the comparison to your mum as a back handed compliment as I am sure you quite like her despite her gradual shuffle to the right 🙂

Funnily enough , my oldest daughter is 32 and she was saying to me a few weeks ago that her friends were talking about their parents being middle class and she told them I would go absolutely mental if anyone described me as middle class . I dont think its the outside that determines what you are its whats in the inside. I have struggled in recent years in my job as I have become more aware of selfishness and wealth , I hope to retire in December which i think is right thing to do before i say something that makes that decision for me 🙂

I must have misunderstood your post, I thought you were looking for a more socialist government. I totally agree with your first paragraph about gaining confidence and belief, I have said similar on here a few times. The problem is though if you promise too much no one believes you as there really is no magic money tree. I have also said we are lacking on people with a good financial background in the SG. Any ideas / vision will be ripped to shreds by Westminster unless they are watertight financially. The currency has been a big disappointment for me as I had hoped over the years something more solid would be presented.

I asked you about the free prescriptions for all and school meals as a few left leaning people i know think it should be means tested. So many people have different ideas it pretty difficult for a government to please everyone. 

Re the younger people today, I do think they have generally been dealt a pretty shit hand, particularly those who dont have parents with any sort of wealth behind them. There are thing’s however today that makes life a bit easier than we had ( mum alert ! ) Work / life balance and childcare  is more attractive for a lot of people as an example . 
I really hope you are right regarding the tide turning with the young as things are not working under the current capitalist regime. 

 

 

[Orraloon]

8 minutes ago, TDYER63 said:

😂 I have also said we are lacking on people with a good financial background in the SG. Any ideas / vision will be ripped to shreds by Westminster unless they are watertight financially. The currency has been a big disappointment for me as I had hoped over the years something more solid would be presented.

 

 

 

Well, you'll have plenty spare time to help out after you've retired. We need more people to get involved. Especially folk from "your generation". 😉

Edited February 17, 2023 by Orraloon

[TDYER63]

Just now, Orraloon said:

Well, you'll have plenty spare time to help out after you've retired. We need more people to get involved.

Why do you think I am spending 5 hours of my day on a independence call tomorrow rather than watching the Buddies annihilate Ross County ? 🙂 

[Dave78]

1 minute ago, TDYER63 said:

Why do you think I am spending 5 hours of my day on a independence call tomorrow rather than watching the Buddies annihilate Ross County ? 🙂 

Will there be a livestream, or is it for elite Yessers and Tambers only? 😜

[TDYER63]

3 minutes ago, Dave78 said:

Will there be a livestream, or is it for elite Yessers and Tambers only? 😜

If I could type faster than 6 words a minute I would live stream it myself on here 😁

For the record, if  anyone on here is joining my camera will be off ! 

[Dave78]

30 minutes ago, TDYER63 said:

If I could type faster than 6 words a minute I would live stream it myself on here 😁

For the record, if  anyone on here is joining my camera will be off ! 

By 'livestream' i meant video, not text 

[Orraloon]

42 minutes ago, TDYER63 said:

Why do you think I am spending 5 hours of my day on a independence call tomorrow rather than watching the Buddies annihilate Ross County ? 🙂 

Well, it's a good start. 👍 Most folk don't realise how much influence they can have if they are prepared to put in the effort. 

[Ally Bongo]

1 hour ago, aaid said:

I think that’s harsh.  Remember the one time she did get bullish immediately after the Brexit vote, she got punished at the 2017 election.   That was almost entirely down to the SNP vote not turning out, for reasons that have never been completely explained.

Hindsight vision is of course 20/20.

The SNP campaigned on stopping Brexit rather than Scottish Independence get us outta here - knowing that a large group of SNP voters were for Brexit

In hindsight again that was fucking mental

[TDYER63]

9 minutes ago, Dave78 said:

By 'livestream' i meant video, not text 

😂 I know what you meant.
Its not a public stream. Its a ‘business for scotland ‘ in conjunction with their affiliated ‘Yes ‘ groups conference. Every group was allowed 4 participants. I posted on here a couple of times to highlight it to anyone who didn’t know. 

[aaid]

6 minutes ago, Ally Bongo said:

The SNP campaigned on stopping Brexit rather than Scottish Independence get us outta here - knowing that a large group of SNP voters were for Brexit

In hindsight again that was fucking mental

Not 100% mental.  There was a much larger number of people who voted No but voted to remain.  In comparison, the number of Yes/Leave people was much much lower.   A larger number of those No/Remainers have subsequently come over to Yes. That is what was responsible for Yes being in the lead in 2019/2020.

 

[EddardStark]

Despite the combination of a corrupt Tory Govt and one the blew up the economy overnight I am less confident about a positive yes vote for a referendum. That says a lot about the SNPs performance in my opinion  

[hampden_loon2878]

1 hour ago, Ally Bongo said:

The SNP campaigned on stopping Brexit rather than Scottish Independence get us outta here - knowing that a large group of SNP voters were for Brexit

In hindsight again that was fucking mental

Hindsight wasn’t needed, foresight was and you could see we were going to get pasted at that election

 

[Malcolm]

4 hours ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

a very reliable source had told me of the worry the internal polling had shown a good few days prior to her resignation,, aaid said it was bullshit as he does but turns out it wasn't,, we really nead a leader to give us a united party,, get back to basics and go from there, not chasing after vote losing policies. 

the snp would do well to be centerist, ditch the greens, and focus on independence.

[Malcolm]

4 hours ago, TDYER63 said:

😂 I will take the comparison to your mum as a back handed compliment as I am sure you quite like her despite her gradual shuffle to the right 🙂

Funnily enough , my oldest daughter is 32 and she was saying to me a few weeks ago that her friends were talking about their parents being middle class and she told them I would go absolutely mental if anyone described me as middle class . I dont think its the outside that determines what you are its whats in the inside. I have struggled in recent years in my job as I have become more aware of selfishness and wealth , I hope to retire in December which i think is right thing to do before i say something that makes that decision for me 🙂

I must have misunderstood your post, I thought you were looking for a more socialist government. I totally agree with your first paragraph about gaining confidence and belief, I have said similar on here a few times. The problem is though if you promise too much no one believes you as there really is no magic money tree. I have also said we are lacking on people with a good financial background in the SG. Any ideas / vision will be ripped to shreds by Westminster unless they are watertight financially. The currency has been a big disappointment for me as I had hoped over the years something more solid would be presented.

I asked you about the free prescriptions for all and school meals as a few left leaning people i know think it should be means tested. So many people have different ideas it pretty difficult for a government to please everyone. 

Re the younger people today, I do think they have generally been dealt a pretty shit hand, particularly those who dont have parents with any sort of wealth behind them. There are thing’s however today that makes life a bit easier than we had ( mum alert ! ) Work / life balance and childcare  is more attractive for a lot of people as an example . 
I really hope you are right regarding the tide turning with the young as things are not working under the current capitalist regime. 

 

 

my daughters are early 20s and late teens, both hard core lefties and snp voters, an influence of my ex wife who is a socialist and now snp voter.

I think independence is  almost inevitable as that generation are yes voters.

[EddardStark]

SNP vote holding up well post resignation. 
 

 

 

Edited February 17, 2023 by EddardStark

[aaid]

2 minutes ago, EddardStark said:

SNP vote holding up well post resignation. 
 

 

 

I was just going to post that, there is a similar poll out from Survation today but from before the election.  Polling is all over the place at the moment and people would do well to just wait and see how this settles down.  Alternatively they could use whatever poll suits their agenda and ignore all the rest, which is of course very unhelpful.

[Hertsscot]

7 minutes ago, EddardStark said:

SNP vote holding up well post resignation. 
 

 

 

Ironically one of the things that the last few days have shown is that it's easier to get rid of an 'unpopular' FM in Scotland than an unpopular one in Westminster. Hardly an argument in favour of the Union!