Indyref 2 (2)

[aaid]

3 hours ago, PapofGlencoe said:

Labour have gone up, SNP have gone down.

Indy has gone up, SNP has gone down.

Pinning a non-partisan issue on a political party is a massive gamble. It is a flaw, disadvantage or at least something to mitigate with an actual plan to appeal to a broader base.

How many people did you meet saying, writing Indy isn't about the SNP in 2014.. a great many I presume.  And for good reason.

Sorry, but you’ve stated a couple of facts and then drawn a conclusion from that which there’s absolutely no evidence to support and aren’t showing your working.   It looks like you’re trying to fit the result to back up your position.  How do you know this result isn’t about local issues in Uphall rather than macro-political and constitutional UK politics as you’re claiming?

If there is any macro impact, it’s likely to be what we’ve seen since the summer, Labour vote going up, Tory vote going down. 

A good explainer here.  

https://ballotbox.scot/by-election-result-buw

[Caledonian Craig]

16 minutes ago, aaid said:

Sorry, but you’ve stated a couple of facts and then drawn a conclusion from that which there’s absolutely no evidence to support and aren’t showing your working.   It looks like you’re trying to fit the result to back up your position.  How do you know this result isn’t about local issues in Uphall rather than macro-political and constitutional UK politics as you’re claiming?

If there is any macro impact, it’s likely to be what we’ve seen since the summer, Labour vote going up, Tory vote going down. 

A good explainer here.  

https://ballotbox.scot/by-election-result-buw

As I said earlier it looks plainly that Labour have mopped up disenchanted Tory voters - far too close (Labour vote share gain to Tory vote share loss) to be anything else. I am guessing that the independent candidates were pro-independence and they took the SNP vote share down.

[aaid]

38 minutes ago, Caledonian Craig said:

As I said earlier it looks plainly that Labour have mopped up disenchanted Tory voters - far too close (Labour vote share gain to Tory vote share loss) to be anything else. I am guessing that the independent candidates were pro-independence and they took the SNP vote share down.

The two independents were Labour and Tory. 

[Caledonian Craig]

15 minutes ago, aaid said:

The two independents were Labour and Tory. 

Thanks for the clarification. Well hopefully it is just a case of SNP voters' apathy that saw their vote share dip. Only 0.4% that went to the Alba candidate so there is no other reason why their share should dip and even Greens' vote share went down.

[TDYER63]

17 hours ago, PapofGlencoe said:

that broxburn result demonstrates the flaw of Sturgeon's gambit unless a united Yes party or all individual parties are counted towards Yes.  Indy is more popular than the SNP...I'd wager substantially so.  

 

I got a car sticker through the other day ‘YES ‘ and ‘SNP’. If I was to put anything on my car I would probably cut the SNP bit off as I agree that independence is more popular than any political party. 
They would have been better creating a long narrow sticker with a few words about our energy excess , drivers are more likely to take notice of that on a rear windscreen . 

[hampden_loon2878]

3 hours ago, TDYER63 said:

I got a car sticker through the other day ‘YES ‘ and ‘SNP’. If I was to put anything on my car I would probably cut the SNP bit off as I agree that independence is more popular than any political party. 
They would have been better creating a long narrow sticker with a few words about our energy excess , drivers are more likely to take notice of that on a rear windscreen . 

And there lies the problem, the SNP used to stand pretty much solely on independence, the raft of dodgy policies at all costs has cast doubt on that 

[Orraloon]

1 minute ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

And there lies the problem, the SNP used to stand pretty much solely on independence, the raft of dodgy policies at all costs has cast doubt on that 

How many "dodgy policies" are on the raft of yours?

[PapofGlencoe]

5 hours ago, aaid said:

Sorry, but you’ve stated a couple of facts and then drawn a conclusion from that which there’s absolutely no evidence to support and aren’t showing your working.   It looks like you’re trying to fit the result to back up your position.  How do you know this result isn’t about local issues in Uphall rather than macro-political and constitutional UK politics as you’re claiming?

If there is any macro impact, it’s likely to be what we’ve seen since the summer, Labour vote going up, Tory vote going down. 

A good explainer here.  

https://ballotbox.scot/by-election-result-buw

Okay let me back it up then.  

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11489853/amp/Support-Scots-independence-rises-52-Nicola-Sturgeons-failed-court-bid.html

SNP down 4, Labour up 12

Indy up 4, SNP down 4

 

I was basing my comment more on this and that the real election tests we've seen haven't disproved it.

If you think betting Indy on a party rather than a broad based movement doesn't have it's issues, I don't know what to tell you.  

Yes Scotland was created for a reason.  To decouple it from partisanship and the inevitable gripes voters have with a governing or non-governing political party.

TYDER, I got the same.  Wouldn't dream of putting it up with the SNP badge.  Not because I particularly dislike the SNP but because my view of this issue being above party branding.  I simply believe Scotland should have the govt it votes for, I'm not party political and have no desire to be.

I truly believe an SNP only ticket is a disaster waiting to happen.  Because it doesn't reflect the type of campaigning required to turn soft Nos.  It wasn't until after the referendum a great many joined the SNP.  Your celebrity backers wanted to be associated with Yes, not the SNP.

Some ideas needed because Labour is on the comeback in the UK.

[PapofGlencoe]

8 minutes ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

And there lies the problem, the SNP used to stand pretty much solely on independence, the raft of dodgy policies at all costs has cast doubt on that 

A lot of people would think they've done a decent job in government too.  But the point is valid on both faces.  The SNP is about more than Indy nowadays.

[Caledonian Craig]

11 minutes ago, PapofGlencoe said:

Okay let me back it up then.  

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11489853/amp/Support-Scots-independence-rises-52-Nicola-Sturgeons-failed-court-bid.html

SNP down 4, Labour up 12

Indy up 4, SNP down 4

 

I was basing my comment more on this and that the real election tests we've seen haven't disproved it.

If you think betting Indy on a party rather than a broad based movement doesn't have it's issues, I don't know what to tell you.  

Yes Scotland was created for a reason.  To decouple it from partisanship and the inevitable gripes voters have with a governing or non-governing political party.

TYDER, I got the same.  Wouldn't dream of putting it up with the SNP badge.  Not because I particularly dislike the SNP but because my view of this issue being above party branding.  I simply believe Scotland should have the govt it votes for, I'm not party political and have no desire to be.

I truly believe an SNP only ticket is a disaster waiting to happen.  Because it doesn't reflect the type of campaigning required to turn soft Nos.  It wasn't until after the referendum a great many joined the SNP.  Your celebrity backers wanted to be associated with Yes, not the SNP.

Some ideas needed because Labour is on the comeback in the UK.

And therein lies the problem with the SNP detractors or Sturgeon detractors should I say.

People accusing her of not doing enough to obtain independence but they cannot come up with any other way to obtain it that she hasn't tried.

And detracting from going for a defacto referendum on the next GE is now deemed something to attack her on too.

So what, exactly, would the detractors do to obtain independence or even a chance to have a referendum on independence (only possible through a Section 30).

Edited December 3, 2022 by Caledonian Craig

[PapofGlencoe]

6 minutes ago, Caledonian Craig said:

And therein lies the problem with the SNP detractors or Sturgeon detractors should I say.

People accusing her of not doing enough to obtain evidence but they cannot come up with any other way to obtain it that she hasn't tried.

And detracting from going for a defacto referendum on the next GE is now deemed something to attack her on too.

So what, exactly, would the detractors do to obtain independence or even a chance to have a referendum on independence (only possible through a Section 30).

Don't count me as detractor.  I'm in favour of the defacto ref.  

But they need to think about how they decouple Indy from being SNP only in it.  Or how to broaden their appeal.

I personally think a Yes Scotland party is the way to go.  Or something of that ilk with each party signed upto some kind of convention beforehand.  I don't know, for greater mind than me to consider.

I'm merely highlighting an issue which is now being borne out in polling. I think it's an obvious issue anyway even if it wasn't showing up already.

Edited December 3, 2022 by PapofGlencoe

[Caledonian Craig]

Just now, PapofGlencoe said:

Don't count me as detractor.  I'm in favour of the defacto ref.  

But they need to think about how they decouple Indy from being SNP only in it.  Or how to broaden they're appeal.

I personally think a Yes Scotland party is the way to go.  Or something of that ilk with each party signed upto some kind of convention beforehand.  I don't know, for greater mind than me to consider.

Ah right. Apologies.

Yes I said as much earlier and pro-independence political figures need to be looking at drumming home a message that any elections (Scottish, General or by) and if you really want independence you must vote for a pro-independence party or to not vote at all.

It also needs clarity on which parties are pro-indy and that to be rammed home too. I agree on your idea on Yes Scotland party but to many egos for them all to come together.

[ParisInAKilt]

13 minutes ago, Caledonian Craig said:

And therein lies the problem with the SNP detractors or Sturgeon detractors should I say.

People accusing her of not doing enough to obtain independence but they cannot come up with any other way to obtain it that she hasn't tried.

And detracting from going for a defacto referendum on the next GE is now deemed something to attack her on too.

So what, exactly, would the detractors do to obtain independence or even a chance to have a referendum on independence (only possible through a Section 30).

Maybe their manifesto should say that then “we want independence but don’t know how to obtain it when we’re told no by the Uk government” 

[Caledonian Craig]

12 minutes ago, ParisInAKilt said:

Maybe their manifesto should say that then “we want independence but don’t know how to obtain it when we’re told no by the Uk government” 

Aye  that sounds a great way to gain voters at elections - NOT. And by the way ANY pro-Indy party don't know how to obtain independence when you are fighting against hundreds of years old bills created in such a water-tight manner.

[ParisInAKilt]

21 minutes ago, Caledonian Craig said:

Aye  that sounds a great way to gain voters at elections - NOT. And by the way ANY pro-Indy party don't know how to obtain independence when you are fighting against hundreds of years old bills created in such a water-tight manner.

Bit of transparency rather than kicking the can down the street for every election just so people get elected, especially at Westminster when they are basically doing fuck all 

[Caledonian Craig]

1 minute ago, ParisInAKilt said:

Bit of transparency rather than kicking the can down the street for every election just so people get elected, especially at Westminster when they are basically doing fuck all 

Well go on and tell me what you think they should and can do to change things in terms of getting a referendum.

[ParisInAKilt]

3 minutes ago, Caledonian Craig said:

Well go on and tell me what you think they should and can do to change things in terms of getting a referendum.

I don’t really know but then I’m not a politician standing behind a manifesto that mentions independence so it’s not important what I think. 

Surely there comes a time when action is needed with a clear plan rather than vague promises?

[Caledonian Craig]

1 minute ago, ParisInAKilt said:

I don’t really know but then I’m not a politician standing behind a manifesto that mentions independence so it’s not important what I think. 

Surely there comes a time when action is needed with a clear plan rather than vague promises?

Well you've answered it all really. There is no other way.

No referendum (that will be recognised by Westminster) can be held.

No referendum can be held without Westminster's say so.

Declaring independence without 50% backing is a no no as it would not be recognised by the worldwide community.

The defacto referendum will not be recognised by Westminster but it continues to keep the pressure on Westminster as if more than 50% vote pro-Indy more people will start to see the legitimacy of another referendum.

So there you have it.

[mccaughey85]

6 minutes ago, ParisInAKilt said:

I don’t really know but then I’m not a politician standing behind a manifesto that mentions independence so it’s not important what I think. 

Surely there comes a time when action is needed with a clear plan rather than vague promises?

You dont need to be a politician to have an opinion on what the next course of action should be for the independence movement. Its important what you and all of us in the indy movement think, if you dont have a plan then you shouldnt expect others to think one up for you. 

Vague promises?

What vague promises is that?

[mccaughey85]

1 hour ago, ParisInAKilt said:

Maybe their manifesto should say that then “we want independence but don’t know how to obtain it when we’re told no by the Uk government” 

Would any indy party be able to get a referendum out of westminster? 

Its over to the scottish ppl to start voting in larger numbers for indy partys and for polling to consistently be above 50 percent. If the scottish ppl cant do that then why should westminster grant a referendum?

[exile]

A 'Yes Scotland' or 'Independence for Scotland' ticket would at a stroke signal that this would not be a normal election electing members to a parliament, but would signal voting for a cross-party cause. It could remove much of the party politcial aggro that alot of people seem to be uncapable of seeing beyond. It would be a risky thing for the SNP to do but if it got a bigger vote, why not?

I suppose it would hinge on whether there really are enough pro-indy Labour voters who would prioritise indy over getting their beloved red knight into Westminster.  There seems to be an unfeasibly high level of support for indy among Labour voters but I think we have to assume they may be only indy leaning if put to the vote but wouldn't normally deviate from Labour in romal elections. Just like there must have been plenty of Labour Eurosceptics but most would think EU a high enough priority to vote UKIP in a general election, until the referendum came along - a free hit against the establishment, where every vote counted.

[Hertsscot]

10 hours ago, Caledonian Craig said:

Eh?

Can you please tell me what you expect Sturgeon or her successor or predecessors to do that they haven't to obtain independence?

The recent Supreme Court ruling emphasises how it is impossible to break the shackles. The only way known is for Westminster to grant a Section 30 which Sturgeon has asked for on multiple occasions now and been turned down.

The only other way is to just declare independence without 50% support for it which would make Scotland an international pariah state unrecognised as an independent country in the worldwide community so that is a no goer.

So lets hear your solution.

Part of the problem is the SNP are both a party in Government and a party campaigning for independence and it's difficult to do both. I think my comments are sometimes based more on her tone rather than anything else. We've not fallen out, she still sends me a Christmas card. I do think GRA has been a mess and distraction, I do think the SNP should be more on the ball in refuting Unionist lies, I'm disappointed with the lack of support she gave when Jo Cherry was subject to death threats, lack of SNP presence at some Indy events (eg AUOB marches) etc. I do think the SNP in general have been too dismissive of the concerns that have led to many people leaving the party.

Having said that and for the record I think the way to go is via a de facto referendum at the next General Election. UDI, no matter how tempting, is a dead end for the reasons you lay out.

[aaid]

4 hours ago, PapofGlencoe said:

Okay let me back it up then.  

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11489853/amp/Support-Scots-independence-rises-52-Nicola-Sturgeons-failed-court-bid.html

SNP down 4, Labour up 12

Indy up 4, SNP down 4

 

Sorry but if you’re trying to use the Daily Mail to back up your argument then …

[PapofGlencoe]

50 minutes ago, aaid said:

Sorry but if you’re trying to use the Daily Mail to back up your argument then …

You're brighter than that...  

I'm using the article only as a means to show the incontrovertible fact of the poll.  No the leanings of the paper.

By all means go to the pollsters page if you're inclined.

[aaid]

21 minutes ago, PapofGlencoe said:

You're brighter than that...  

I'm using the article only as a means to show the incontrovertible fact of the poll.  No the leanings of the paper.

By all means go to the pollsters page if you're inclined.

I’m not denying the existence of the poll.  At this point, I think it’s an outlier, time will tell if I’m right or wrong.

There’s likely 18 months until the next UKGE, could be two years if the Tories hold on until the death.

We’ve had the route that everyone understands closed off ten days ago, your using one poll and a council by-election to prove that the SNPs strategy is wrong and the public don’t like it.  AFAIK, the SNP’s strategy hasn’t even been decided yet, let alone communicated.  They need time to work the detail of that, the wider Yes movement which - being a bit harsh here - has been sat on its arse waiting for the SNP for the last 8 years won’t do it.   Hopefully that can be bottomed out in spring and then we can all start to execute towards it.