Indyref 2 (2)

[aaid]

1 hour ago, Alibi said:

Thanks, Aaid, interesting to read your analysis there.  Couple of points: the percentages might be fairly small, but they might also be crucial.  Also, in a WM election, I reckon the message will get swamped by all the UK issues that will be promoted heavily in the MSM.  In a Scottish election, all the extraneous noise won't be there.  Also think that in a UK election, the SNP vote would be very unlikely to get to 50% - in a Scottish election using the constituency vote as the measure, I would say 50%+ could be achievable.

Ultimately it could all come down to one vote but I think that collapsing Holyrood to call an election is a much riskier proposition and one which the electorate would react against than if the parliament had come to its natural end, so it’s not something I would take a risk on, particularly as you’d likely only be talking about a year’s difference.

I think there’s tactical advantages to going with WM as well.  For example, if you were to use an HR election then it would be easier for some form of - most likely unofficial - Better Together style opposition to operate.  In a WM election where they want to frame it as Labour v Tory, that’s going to be a lot more difficult.

 

[AlfieMoon]

Blackford should never have been appointed in the first place. Quite the downgrade on Angus Robertson. Hopefully someone more talented and capable comes to the fore.  
 

Not quite sure why the statement says that Blackford will have a new role at the heart of the Indyref campaign. I certainly wouldn’t have him near such a position. 

[hampden_loon2878]

Let’s hope it’s not Blackman, smyth or any of that other woke nutters

[Ally Bongo]

23 minutes ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

Let’s hope it’s not Blackman, smyth or any of that other woke nutters

I doubt it will be Kirsty Blackman due to her record of finding it too much pressure or Hosie for his past misdemeanours

It would be fabulous if it was Joanna Cherry but that's probably for the birds

It probably will be Alyn Smith thinking about it

[mcguffin]

6 minutes ago, Ally Bongo said:

I doubt it will be Kirsty Blackman due to her record of finding it too much pressure or Hosie for his past misdemeanours

It would be fabulous if it was Joanna Cherry but that's probably for the birds

It probably will be Alyn Smith thinking about it

You may well be correct. (None of these names really appeal to me to be honest, Joanna C. excepted).

Any chance it could be Dr. Phillipa Whitford? Okay, she's maybe a bit too honest and straight talking for such a political role, but I think she would be refreshing. (Just imagine her at Westminster Prime Minister's Questions? Would Sunak really be able to come out with his Boris-Johnson-influenced 'World-beating vaccine rollout' routine to a question from a consultant oncologist? Or attempt to attack the Scottish NHS, knowing full well she has the comparative rest-of-UK NHS facts and figures at her finger tips?)

Edited December 1, 2022 by mcguffin

[Squirrelhumper]

5 minutes ago, mcguffin said:

You may well be correct. (None of these names really appeal to me to be honest, Joanna C. excepted).

Any chance it could be Dr. Phillipa Whitford? Okay, she's maybe a bit too honest and straight talking for such a political role, but I think she would be refreshing. (Just imagine her at Westminster Prime Minister's Questions? Would Sunak really be able to come out with his Boris-Johnson-influenced 'World-beating vaccine rollout' routine to a question from a consultant oncologist? Or attempt to attack the Scottish NHS, knowing full well she has the comparative rest-of-UK NHS facts and figures at her finger tips?)

Whitford, as I said on the news thread earlier, is my choice too.

 

[hampden_loon2878]

Actually a good shout whiteford, unsure how she would cope under sustained scrutiny but she’s not decisive and imo would do well 

[aaid]

12 minutes ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

Actually a good shout whiteford, unsure how she would cope under sustained scrutiny but she’s not decisive and imo would do well 

Whiteford’s not your MP any more, it’s David Duguid.

[Orraloon]

Another disadvantage of using a Scottish election is that the full force of the British State Media Propaganda Machine will be used against us. Using a Westminster election means that at least part of that, will have to be focused on what is happening down south

[mcguffin]

1 hour ago, Squirrelhumper said:

Whitford, as I said on the news thread earlier, is my choice too.

 

Sorry Squirrelhumper, missed your post. Good man! 👍

[Ally Bongo]

YouGov

 

[hampden_loon2878]

4 hours ago, aaid said:

Whiteford’s not your MP any more, it’s David Duguid.

You know who I meant

[scotlad]

Alyn Smith will definitely fancy his chances, unfortunately.

Stephen Flynn is another name I've seen mentioned. He's quite impressed me whenever I've seen him.

[mccaughey85]

2 hours ago, Ally Bongo said:

YouGov

 

The tories are basically destroying any chance they have of getting back in with this energy hikes and cost of living crisis. I dont understand why they want to destroy their chances of retaining power. I know they are greedy fucks but surely they understand that they are basically handing the country over to labour. Whats in it for them is what i want to know? 

[King Of Paisley]

Electoral Calculus predicts 50 seats for the SNP. Slight drop in vote share to 43.7%. Labour predicted to win the Alba seats plus Rutherglen and Glasgow NE. Tories wiped out. Fieldwork done between 30 September and 27 November. Tells me that Redfield and Wilton poll reflected their UK prediction and wasn't a Scotland wide poll

[Caledonian Craig]

6 minutes ago, King Of Paisley said:

Electoral Calculus predicts 50 seats for the SNP. Slight drop in vote share to 43.7%. Labour predicted to win the Alba seats plus Rutherglen and Glasgow NE. Tories wiped out. Fieldwork done between 30 September and 27 November. Tells me that Redfield and Wilton poll reflected their UK prediction and wasn't a Scotland wide poll

Or the poll was specifically on independence which differs from the electoral calculus where people will say who they will vote for - party-wise. As I posted yesterday there are lots of Scots voters who vote Labour/lib Dem and even a handful of Tories who would vote for independence hence the difference in these poll results.

That demonstrates though, how difficult it is to get the message across in a defacto-type referendum for an election.

[TDYER63]

11 hours ago, mccaughey85 said:

The tories are basically destroying any chance they have of getting back in with this energy hikes and cost of living crisis. I dont understand why they want to destroy their chances of retaining power. I know they are greedy fucks but surely they understand that they are basically handing the country over to labour. Whats in it for them is what i want to know? 

For them its being able to heckle from the sidelines and leave Labour to deal with the shit show they created. Funnily enough,  the exact same as happened when Labour were punted and left the Tories to clear up their mess. We just keep going from one incompetent winner of a 2 horse race  to another . And some folk wonder why half of Scotland want independence. 

[King Of Paisley]

1 hour ago, Caledonian Craig said:

Or the poll was specifically on independence which differs from the electoral calculus where people will say who they will vote for - party-wise. As I posted yesterday there are lots of Scots voters who vote Labour/lib Dem and even a handful of Tories who would vote for independence hence the difference in these poll results.

That demonstrates though, how difficult it is to get the message across in a defacto-type referendum for an election.

Hampden Loon posted up a constituency map that was produced by Redfield and Wilton predicting a large swathe of Scottish seats going to Labour. I wasnt referring to the indy poll. Thats what I eas pointing to. My gut still tells me that pollster was using a UK wide model to come up with those numbers and didnt conduct a specific Scottish one

[Caledonian Craig]

4 minutes ago, King Of Paisley said:

Hampden Loon posted up a constituency map that was produced by Redfield and Wilton predicting a large swathe of Scottish seats going to Labour. I wasnt referring to the indy poll. Thats what I eas pointing to. My gut still tells me that pollster was using a UK wide model to come up with those numbers and didnt conduct a specific Scottish one

Ah right. Cheers for clearing up my confusion. 👍

[aaid]

13 hours ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

You know who I meant

Of course, I was just pulling your leg.

[mccaughey85]

59 minutes ago, TDYER63 said:

For them its being able to heckle from the sidelines and leave Labour to deal with the shit show they created. Funnily enough,  the exact same as happened when Labour were punted and left the Tories to clear up their mess. We just keep going from one incompetent winner of a 2 horse race  to another . And some folk wonder why half of Scotland want independence. 

Yeh maybe i am wrongly assuming they neccessarily want to hold onto power. They maybe see the shitstorm(potential ww3 etc?) thats coming and are just cashing in their chips and leaving. I am guessing most of the tory hierarchy and even mps will be in cahoots with the energy companies and have made a fortune from this massive hikes in prices.

Either way i dont think i have ever witnessed the tory party ruin/destroy their lead quite as much as they are doing right now in my lifetime. It makes me think that something big is on the horizon globally. 

 

[Alibi]

22 hours ago, PapofGlencoe said:

Talking about declaring indepdendence off the back of a majority of seats makes no sense.  You can get that off the back of 30 odd perecent of the vote.  In that case, it would be against the popular wishes of the people and should be put in the bin.

If we want a new state our people need to back it.  Not for it to be imposed on them.

 

It's under these rules that the Tories are blocking indyref2 on the back of their, what it it, 40% vote share?  The can only do that because they have a majority under the rules for WM elections, but they still impose a block on indyref2 on the basis of the number of MPs it gives them.  Sauce for the goose etc. Yet we are now expected to get a majority of the votes (or is it the entire electorate including non-voters now?), just to be allowed to ask for a section 30 order.

[Caledonian Craig]

3 minutes ago, Alibi said:

It's under these rules that the Tories are blocking indyref2 on the back of their, what it it, 40% vote share?  The can only do that because they have a majority under the rules for WM elections, but they still impose a block on indyref2 on the basis of the number of MPs it gives them.  Sauce for the goose etc. Yet we are now expected to get a majority of the votes (or is it the entire electorate including non-voters now?), just to be allowed to ask for a section 30 order.

Lets be honest here the unionists use a heap of excuses for not granting Section 30. Favourite is the old BS of last one was a 'once in a generation' poll. That is the desperation of them as the official bill for the referendum (signed by all parties) state the question of independence can be revisited at any time in the future should there be a call for it. Another one is now is not the time (used by May and Bojo). Now is always the time for democracy. Another is English MP's somehow feeling they have the finger on the pulse of Scots saying Scots do not want another referendum. I have heard them point to the number of MP's but again that is pure desperation and just trying to find any excuse to say No because they can.

In a way I want to gear their constant knock backs as it will only add fuel to the fire especially as their governmental incompetence goes on.

[hampden_loon2878]

Anyone who hasn’t  the fear that labour are  going to be a threat need to take their head out of the sand. The few by elections are an early warning sign. The Tory vote has collapsed so much with all the votes going to labour. Not good at all 

Edited December 2, 2022 by hampden_loon2878

[Caledonian Craig]

2 minutes ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

Anyone who haven’t the fear that labour are  going to be a threat need to take their head out of the sand. The few by elections are an early warning sign. The Tory vote has collapsed so much with all the votes going to labour. Not good at all 

Look deeper though and I'd say we need to know what the political favours were of the two independents. Were they pro-independence? I'd suggest maybe so and that is what nibbled at the SNP support. It is too much of a coincidence that the Tory vote share loss near enough matches the Labour gain so would say Tory unionist voters jumped ship to unionist Labour.