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Qatar 2022 World Cup Finals


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Good of Bale to say they’ll highlight things about Qatar while playing in the tournament 😂

As others have said, not really bothered about this, for a few reasons, we’ve not qualified, time difference, not free to air in NZ the now, I gather most who are moaning about Qatar will still probably watch it. 

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8 hours ago, Orraloon said:

It was a good read. 👍 I think it's the only thing I've read about this WC so far. You might have just sparked some interest from me. 

Thank you very much. Pleased you enjoyed the read. Part 2 of my Spitballingpod preview should be published on Friday.

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More World Cup preview type stuff...... Here's my primer for the wonderful sports section of Japan-Forward, SportsLook. The editor asked me to briefly mention some World Cup history before presenting 10 things for viewers to look for during the group stage, so I did. Enjoy.

https://featured.japan-forward.com/sportslook/ten-things-to-pay-attention-to-during-the-world-cup-group-stage/

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19 hours ago, Orraloon said:

Do you not think Kane must be in with a shout for Golden Boot, considering they have got such an easy group to start off with?

I'm not sure it's all that easy. England should qualify from the group but the USA are a decent team (although defence and goalkeeper are probably their weakest areas) and Wales should be capable of giving them a game. There are no Panama-style diddies in there this time. 

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This is definitely the least I've looked forward to a world cup since I start watching them.

 

I'll probably still watch the odd match but I won't be going out of my way to do that.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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4 hours ago, vanderark14 said:

This is definitely the least I've looked forward to a world cup since I start watching them.

 

I'll probably still watch the odd match but I won't be going out of my way to do that.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Ditto

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14 hours ago, scotlad said:

I'm not sure it's all that easy. England should qualify from the group but the USA are a decent team (although defence and goalkeeper are probably their weakest areas) and Wales should be capable of giving them a game. There are no Panama-style diddies in there this time. 

I think Iran will be their toughest group game - I think there's not much between Iran, the US and Wales on paper, but Iran will be used to playing games in the climate of Qatar.

I could see a side like Iran, Senegal or Morocco being dark horses at this World Cup.

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12 hours ago, Clyde1998 said:

I think Iran will be their toughest group game - I think there's not much between Iran, the US and Wales on paper, but Iran will be used to playing games in the climate of Qatar.

I could see a side like Iran, Senegal or Morocco being dark horses at this World Cup.

Qataris will probably spike the Iranians' tea.

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1 hour ago, kumnio said:

Rumours that several Ecuadorian players have accepted a $7.4 million bribe to lose against Qatar. 

Probably pish, but wouldn’t be surprised at all. 

I can believe that. Quatar would have no problem paying that, and would benefit from going to the next round. Absolute disgrace this WC. Just watched a documentary on Sepp Blatter. What a lying narcissistic bastard he is !!!!

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8 hours ago, Big Ramy 1314 said:

I can believe that. Quatar would have no problem paying that, and would benefit from going to the next round. Absolute disgrace this WC. Just watched a documentary on Sepp Blatter. What a lying narcissistic bastard he is !!!!

Hahaha

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Well the WC is nearly here so we are as well enjoying it.  Drew Brazil in sweep yesterday so will need to bet them now.  See they are 7/2 with some bookies.  £50 9n today I think.  No point sitting about moaning about it anymore (including me).  C'mon Brasil.

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On 6/18/2022 at 11:04 AM, Clyde1998 said:

I've done a 25,000 simulation run of the upcoming World Cup using Python largely based on the Elo ratings after this month's international fixtures, and is therefore subject to change come November; Qatar are given their home advantage.

Each countries' penalty rating among their top twenty outfield players and saving ability among their best three goalkeepers, based on their Football Manager stats, are used (each weighted with the assumption the better players will be on the pitch and better penalty takers will take penalties). This needs refining and will almost certainly consider players who won't be in their nations' World Cup squad at this stage.

Brazil and Argentina are, unsurprisingly, the favourites to win the competition, achieving the feat 18% and 16% of the time respectively; both make the final over 25% of the time and the semi-finals in more than two in five runs.

Spain (8%), France (7%), Belgium (7%), Netherlands (5%), Portugal (5%) and Germany (5%) were among the top eight of winners.

The most open group is Group B, where England win the group 41% of the time and qualify 68%, easily the lowest of any of the most regular group winners, with lowest rated Iran qualifying 42% of the time.

Ghana were the team to reach the knockout stages the least - with just 7% of runs seeing this outcome. Cameroon (11%) and Saudi Arabia (14%) were the next worst.

Fourteen teams qualified over 50% of the time: Argentina (93%), Brazil (92%), France (82%), Belgium (82%), Spain (81%), Netherlands (79%), Portugal (79%), Denmark (73%), Germany (71%), Uruguay (71%), England (68%), Croatia (56%), Switzerland (53%) and Ecuador (52%).

There are several things I'd want to improve: the aforementioned penalty statistics, but also a climate adjustment. I'm fairly certain countries with climates similar to that of the host nation perform better in major tournaments, but need to have a look at how big this affect is and work out how to calculate a numerical estimate of how different each countries' climate is from that of Qatar.

You can see how your model performs versus this one.

https://www.turing.ac.uk/blog/can-our-algorithm-predict-winner-2022-football-world-cup

 

Brazil then Belgium on this model. Got Brazil winning 25% of time and Belgium about 20%, Argentina just a tad behind Belgium so you essentially have the same top two predictions.

Although they've got a higher chance for each of them.

 

Edited by phart
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1 hour ago, phart said:

You can see how your model performs versus this one.

https://www.turing.ac.uk/blog/can-our-algorithm-predict-winner-2022-football-world-cup

 

Brazil then Belgium on this model. Got Brazil winning 25% of time and Belgium about 20%, Argentina just a tad behind Belgium so you essentially have the same top two predictions.

Although they've got a higher chance for each of them.

 

Interesting stuff. I'm not sure that factoring in the FIFA world rankings would improve their model much though? 

Germany not even in the top ten, is a bit of an eye opener. I suppose that's a reflection of how tough their group is and there is a good chance they might not make it through the group stages. I have a feeling they will get to the QFs though and that's where their historical "know how" often seems to kick in. 

 

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20 minutes ago, Orraloon said:

Interesting stuff. I'm not sure that factoring in the FIFA world rankings would improve their model much though? 

Germany not even in the top ten, is a bit of an eye opener. I suppose that's a reflection of how tough their group is and there is a good chance they might not make it through the group stages. I have a feeling they will get to the QFs though and that's where their historical "know how" often seems to kick in. 

 

Yeah it's all over my head the modelling. So many variables and once your out of the group stages, it's just one game.

Just using a single variable of who's won it in the past gets you Brazil as the most likely winner in roughly the same proportions anyway without the need to run thousands of simulations.

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1 hour ago, Orraloon said:

Ach, just as well we didnae qualify.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/63674631

Typical way Qatar is treating this world cup, workers human rights non-existent, LGBT intolerance, extortionate accommodation prices. Surely FIFA insisted on certain things when they gave this shower of backward imbeciles the world cup (apart from the big brown envelopes). To announce the banning of beer sales in stadiums a few days before the tournament starts is a shocking decision, what are they going to insist on next that might offend their culture. I'm sure Budweiser will have something to say to FIFA about breaking contracts. Would love to have qualified for the world cup but kinda glad that we aren't going to that shite hole of a country.

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2 hours ago, phart said:

Yeah it's all over my head the modelling. So many variables and once your out of the group stages, it's just one game.

Just using a single variable of who's won it in the past gets you Brazil as the most likely winner in roughly the same proportions anyway without the need to run thousands of simulations.

I'm going with your single variable model. My three picks are Brasil, Germany and Uruguay.

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17 hours ago, kumnio said:

Rumours that several Ecuadorian players have accepted a $7.4 million bribe to lose against Qatar. 

Probably pish, but wouldn’t be surprised at all. 

Surely not. South American football fans wouldn't take that too well. Didn't a Columbia player get shot for scoring an O.G. a few years back? They'd need new identities if that got out.

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2 minutes ago, Och Aye said:

Surely not. South American football fans wouldn't take that too well. Didn't a Columbia player get shot for scoring an O.G. a few years back? They'd need new identities if that got out.

Alan Hansen knows the answer to that question - "he should be shot for defending like that" or words to that effect.

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10 minutes ago, Och Aye said:

Surely not. South American football fans wouldn't take that too well. Didn't a Columbia player get shot for scoring an O.G. a few years back? They'd need new identities if that got out.

Andres Escobar - shot dead after the 94 WC.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andrés_Escobar

'In the UK, the BBC issued a public apology after its football pundit Alan Hansen commented during the World Cup's Round of 16 match between Argentina and Romania that "The Argentine defender wants shooting for a mistake like that," on 3 July, a day after the murder of Escobar.'

Edited by Barney Rubble
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