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EddardStark
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8 minutes ago, thesaint said:

How can it be anything but anti climatic regarding these games after last night. Hardly going to be dancing around if we beat Armenia in a nations league game after bottling the game that mattered.

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It is up to the players and to a lesser degree the fans to make sure it's not anti-climactic. If we go down that route it sets us back even further undoing the good strides made in the last 12 to 18 months.

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25 minutes ago, Caledonian Craig said:

It is up to the players and to a lesser degree the fans to make sure it's not anti-climactic. If we go down that route it sets us back even further undoing the good strides made in the last 12 to 18 months.

Don't see it being anything else but f.. king horrible to be honest. 

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21 hours ago, Toepoke said:

 

I think Chris might be getting confused with Euro 2016 qualifying before the Nations League existed. 

 

I did look at the euro 2020 qualifying groups and pretty much every time who was 3rd was in the play off in some form so assumed it was mix of 3rd place finishes/nations league.

Regardless 2nd place in the euro 2024 group should be the target given team have just done it in WCG even if it didn't mean anything in the end.

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Tickets came through for the Ireland game today. Trying to drum up some enthusiasm but it feels pretty uninspiring. Perhaps a better performance on Wednesday will change things but as it stands an Easyjet cancellation could be divine intervention 🙁

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4 hours ago, Tartan Chris said:

I did look at the euro 2020 qualifying groups and pretty much every time who was 3rd was in the play off in some form so assumed it was mix of 3rd place finishes/nations league.

Regardless 2nd place in the euro 2024 group should be the target given team have just done it in WCG even if it didn't mean anything in the end.

Absolutely, we've set the bar there and it should be a slightly easier challenge with Germany removed from Pot 1. Hopefully we can have a decent NL campaign and guarantee a place in Pot 2 which should help also.

 

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6 hours ago, Toepoke said:

Absolutely, we've set the bar there and it should be a slightly easier challenge with Germany removed from Pot 1. Hopefully we can have a decent NL campaign and guarantee a place in Pot 2 which should help also.

I think we have to win our group to get into Pot 2, or be the best second placed side - otherwise we'll be in Pot 3.

If the expected results from the current Elo ratings play out (any result with no side above a 60% win expectancy being a  listed as a draw), the pots would be:

  1. Netherlands, England, Denmark, Spain, France, Belgium, Portugal, Italy, Austria, Switzerland
  2. Wales, Czech Rep, Poland, Croatia, Hungary, Ukraine, Finland, Norway, Israel, Sweden
  3. Scotland, Romania, Albania, Ireland, Serbia, Bosnia, Iceland, Armenia, Montenegro, Slovenia
  4. Russia, Greece, Turkey, Macedonia, Slovakia, Georgia, N Ireland, Belarus, Luxembourg, Bulgaria
  5. Kosovo, Lithuania, Kazakhstan, Faroe Is, Azerbaijan, Cyprus, Gibraltar, Latvia, Estonia, Moldova
  6. Malta, Andorra, San Marino, Liechtenstein

Obviously being in Pot 2 would be beneficial; knowing our luck, if we did get into Pot 2, we'd end up drawing Serbia and Turkey from Pot 3 and 4. Austria or Switzerland would be the best possible draw from Pot 1 in this case - but nowhere the expectation of getting points from them.

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22 minutes ago, Orraloon said:

How did Israel get into pot 2?

That was my first thought.

My second was how did Austria get in Pot 1?

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Just to clarify to everyone - the seeding is based on your position in the Nations League group.

42 minutes ago, Orraloon said:

How did Israel get into pot 2?

Israel are in a group with Iceland and Albania - whoever wins that group will be in Pot 2. Had Russia not been suspended, they would've been favourites to win the group.

I've got all the games as draws - with Israel being put top via having the highest Elo ranking. Realistically any of the three could win that group. One of Israel, Iceland or Albania will be in Pot 2.

19 minutes ago, Judith said:

That was my first thought.

My second was how did Austria get in Pot 1?

The two best third placed teams from League A will be in Pot 1. I've got Austria as the second best third placed team - which would put them 10th in the rankings behind Germany (who qualify automatically as hosts).

The ranking order for League A teams were:

  1. 1st - Netherlands - 16pts
  2. 1st - England - 14pts
  3. 1st - Denmark - 14pts
  4. 1st - Spain - 12pts
  5. 2nd - France - 13pts
  6. 2nd - Belgium - 12pts
  7. 2nd - Portugal - 10pts
  8. 2nd - Italy - 10pts
  9. 3rd - Germany - 10pts (hosts)
  10. 3rd - Austria - 6 pts
  11. 3rd - Switzerland - 5pts
  12. 3rd - Wales - 4pts
  13. 4th - Czech Rep - 4pts
  14. 4th - Poland - 3pts
  15. 4th - Croatia - 1pts
  16. 4th - Hungary - 0pts

The six points come from their win tonight (3-0 in Croatia) and a win against Croatia at home.

Realistically, Denmark, France, Portugal, Spain, Italy, England, Netherlands and Belgium should be in Pot 1, based on their groups and team strength - with all the others (except Hungary) having a realistic chance of getting those last two spots, unless something bizarre happens.

Croatia are perhaps the biggest surprise, but their 3-0 home defeat tonight caused a huge points swing - with home advantage Austria narrowly get over my 60% win expectancy threshold to be credited a win in the return game. Their form against Pot 1/2 sides hasn't been great since coming back from the pandemic either.

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Wow, so despite comprehensively outperforming both Austria and Israel in the World Cup Group (not necessarily in the head to head matches) that has absolutely no influence on the draw for the Euros.....

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10 hours ago, Judith said:

Wow, so despite comprehensively outperforming both Austria and Israel in the World Cup Group (not necessarily in the head to head matches) that has absolutely no influence on the draw for the Euros.....

We thought at the time messing up winning our NL group would impact our World Cup play off chances, but in the end it's hampered our Euro24 campaign. 

If we'd won our group last time (like Austria did) we'd be guaranteed Pot 2 at the worst...

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022–23_UEFA_Nations_League#Overall_ranking

 

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17 hours ago, Clyde1998 said:

Just to clarify to everyone - the seeding is based on your position in the Nations League group.

Israel are in a group with Iceland and Albania - whoever wins that group will be in Pot 2. Had Russia not been suspended, they would've been favourites to win the group.

I've got all the games as draws - with Israel being put top via having the highest Elo ranking. Realistically any of the three could win that group. One of Israel, Iceland or Albania will be in Pot 2.

The two best third placed teams from League A will be in Pot 1. I've got Austria as the second best third placed team - which would put them 10th in the rankings behind Germany (who qualify automatically as hosts).

The ranking order for League A teams were:

  1. 1st - Netherlands - 16pts
  2. 1st - England - 14pts
  3. 1st - Denmark - 14pts
  4. 1st - Spain - 12pts
  5. 2nd - France - 13pts
  6. 2nd - Belgium - 12pts
  7. 2nd - Portugal - 10pts
  8. 2nd - Italy - 10pts
  9. 3rd - Germany - 10pts (hosts)
  10. 3rd - Austria - 6 pts
  11. 3rd - Switzerland - 5pts
  12. 3rd - Wales - 4pts
  13. 4th - Czech Rep - 4pts
  14. 4th - Poland - 3pts
  15. 4th - Croatia - 1pts
  16. 4th - Hungary - 0pts

The six points come from their win tonight (3-0 in Croatia) and a win against Croatia at home.

Realistically, Denmark, France, Portugal, Spain, Italy, England, Netherlands and Belgium should be in Pot 1, based on their groups and team strength - with all the others (except Hungary) having a realistic chance of getting those last two spots, unless something bizarre happens.

Croatia are perhaps the biggest surprise, but their 3-0 home defeat tonight caused a huge points swing - with home advantage Austria narrowly get over my 60% win expectancy threshold to be credited a win in the return game. Their form against Pot 1/2 sides hasn't been great since coming back from the pandemic either.

OK got you now. That all makes sense.

For any of those folk still out there who don't think the Nations League is important, they should just need to realise that if we had won our Nations League group last time round we would already be guaranteed a Pot 2 seeding and probably a playoff spot as well.

If we win our group this time round we are in Pot 2 and get a playoff spot. If we are the best League B runners up we are also in Pot 2 and maybe a chance of a playoff spot as well. Is that correct?

 

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34 minutes ago, Orraloon said:

OK got you now. That all makes sense.

For any of those folk still out there who don't think the Nations League is important, they should just need to realise that if we had won our Nations League group last time round we would already be guaranteed a Pot 2 seeding and probably a playoff spot as well.

If we win our group this time round we are in Pot 2 and get a playoff spot. If we are the best League B runners up we are also in Pot 2 and maybe a chance of a playoff spot as well. Is that correct?

As I understand it, yes.

For the last Euros anyone within the top 32 in the Nations League ranking either qualified automatically or ended up in the play-offs - I believe that equates to everyone in League A and B unless you finish bottom of your group.

One important factor for us though is group winners cannot play anyone from a higher league than them in the play-offs. As an example, if we win our group we can only play a play-off against teams from our league or lower. If we don't win our group, we could end up filling in for already qualified teams from League A - a much harder play-off on paper.

The Nations League is vitally important to our Euro qualifying chances even beyond guaranteeing us a play-off spot - it determines our seeding for the qualifying group, our play-off chances, who we could play in the play-offs and gives us experience against similar standard teams.

7 hours ago, Toepoke said:

We thought at the time messing up winning our NL group would impact our World Cup play off chances, but in the end it's hampered our Euro24 campaign. 

If we'd won our group last time (like Austria did) we'd be guaranteed Pot 2 at the worst...

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022–23_UEFA_Nations_League#Overall_ranking

Aye - and a chance of getting into Pot 1.

If we'd won our group, been drawn into the same group as the Czechs were and finished ahead of Switzerland - you could end up with a very different qualifying group.

Just to show the impact, I've got a potential group draw based on ordering the groups based on each teams' Nations League ranking shown in my earlier post, where the worst team in Pot 1, plays the best team in Pot 2, etc:

Switzerland are with Wales, Slovenia, Greece, Malta and Andorra, we end up with Netherlands, Sweden, Kosovo and Lithuania. Swap us and Switzerland, and you've got two very different draws.

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Think the Irish had every right to be positive. It felt like Kenny was finally getting them going, and they've done a Scotland by losing a must not lose away. 

The group could be quite open. You could see us losing there plus Ukraine might be knackered but hugely up for these games! They've got a ton of new fans too after the scelping of us. 

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7 minutes ago, weekevie04 said:

Think the Irish had every right to be positive. It felt like Kenny was finally getting them going, and they've done a Scotland by losing a must not lose away. 

The group could be quite open. You could see us losing there plus Ukraine might be knackered but hugely up for these games! They've got a ton of new fans too after the scelping of us. 

Armenia away could similar to Israel away for us. Least we are playing then at home first. 

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This Armenia away game scares me , probably still hot and we saw yesterday against Ireland that it won’t be straight forward .

the poor fitness levels of our squad is always a concern as well.

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Posted (edited)
15 hours ago, DAVIDB46 said:

Noticed Stephen hunt who seemed to have aged dramatically predicted a comfortable 3-1 for Ireland today , what the confidence was based on I am not entirely sure 

It was based on an eight game unbeaten run which included getting a draw in games against the quality of the likes of Portugal.

Edited by Caledonian Craig
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