Council elections - help!

[ErsatzThistle]

15 minutes ago, phart said:

A Salmond onlyfans might be the way to pay for the next election campaign.

😲

In all seriousness, it's hard to see how much longer they can go on with such limited funding.

I'm also quite surprised how Salmond, who we can all agree was at one time a canny political operator, has allowed his party to operate on such an amateurish working structure. There are church fêtes and five-a-side kickabouts that are better organised and co-ordinated than the Alba Party.

[thplinth]

Council elections?! It is so off the radar from every average person it is laughable. I have never voted in them and have not a clue how to. (And please don't tell me because I don't give a fuck.) Probably more of a story is how corrupt local government in Scotland is, under Labour and now the SNP.

 

[Lamia]

3 hours ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

Alba will be there at the next election I am pretty sure of that. 

Well if people want to want to waste their time and energy that is up to them but I am not sure why anyone would when it will achieve absolutely nothing 

[ErsatzThistle]

If supporters of both the Conservatives (Scottish branch) and the Alba Party had put as much effort into doorstep campaigning as they put into furious, paranoid ranting about the SNP every day on twitter, then they both may have done somewhat better at this recent election.

Edited May 6, 2022 by ErsatzThistle

[hampden_loon2878]

11 hours ago, aaid said:

So you’re comparing results at two different elections to different institutions under different electoral systems - that’s wise.

Here’s why that’s a problem.  Under STV, people don’t always vote for the party they’d vote for in a Holyrood election on either the list or FPTP parts.

That’s because these are multi-member wards, so let’s say you’re an SNP supporter in a three member ward and they’ve got two candidates standing.  You might actually vote for another candidate first to keep them in, knowing that if they are elected or are knocked out that your vote will transfer accordingly.   That’s of course more applicable when you are talking about independent candidates, who got 10% of the FPs in 2017, which is a significant number.

Trying to suggest that there was a drop in vote share between the 2016 HR election and the 2017 council elections is nonsense - it’s comparing apples and oranges. 

An election held tomorrow would have the snp down 15 seats at least 

[aaid]

3 minutes ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

An election held tomorrow would have the snp down 15 seats at least 

What sort of election? The one on Thursday that saw the SNP increase their seats.

[hampden_loon2878]

39 minutes ago, aaid said:

What sort of election? The one on Thursday that saw the SNP increase their seats.

Holyrood or Westminster, yes the voting different however you can take a lot from the voting patterns.

does the Lib Dem’s vote share in the west highlands not give you the fear? Or Labour gains in the central belt,,  

[hampden_loon2878]

50 minutes ago, aaid said:

What sort of election? The one on Thursday that saw the SNP increase their seats.

What was the 1st preference vote stats? 

[aaid]

Vote Alba get Labour.

Alba transfers in Southside Central to Labour ensures that SNP candidate is eliminated to let Labour in.  Any of the Alba purists want to explain how this is a good thing?

 

[aaid]

1 hour ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

What was the 1st preference vote stats? 

SNP 34.1% (+1.7)
LAB 21.8% (+1.6)
CON 19.7% (-5.6%)
IND 8.4% (-2%)
LIB 8.6% (+1.8%)
Green 6% (+1.9)

Highest vote share in local council elections under STV for both the SNP and Greens.

[hampden_loon2878]

12 minutes ago, aaid said:

SNP 34.1% (+1.7)
LAB 21.8% (+1.6)
CON 19.7% (-5.6%)
IND 8.4% (-2%)
LIB 8.6% (+1.8%)
Green 6% (+1.9)

Highest vote share in local council elections under STV for both the SNP and Greens.

So really it’s not that great, more the tories did shit? 

[hampden_loon2878]

20 minutes ago, aaid said:

Vote Alba get Labour.

Alba transfers in Southside Central to Labour ensures that SNP candidate is eliminated to let Labour in.  Any of the Alba purists want to explain how this is a good thing?

 

Hunter is a bit of weapon tbh, she won’t be missed, you forget the green share votes also 

Edited May 7, 2022 by hampden_loon2878

[aaid]

5 minutes ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

Hunter is a bit of weapon tbh, she won’t be missed, you forget the green share votes also 

In the last election it was two Labour and two SNP.   The Alba candidate had 644 votes to transfer.   157 went to the SNP, 212 to Labour and 273 didn't transfer.

Had Mhairi Hinter picked up an additional 102 votes - which would still only have been around 50% of the Alba transfers, then she would've stayed in and the second Labour candidate would've been eliminated.  

That would've meant 2 SNP, 1 Green and 1 Labour.

Now people are fully entitled to vote for whoever the want to, that's their right, but Alba shouldn't pretend that they're only supportive of the independence cause.

[Lamia]

5 hours ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

Hunter is a bit of weapon tbh, she won’t be missed, you forget the green share votes also 

The fact that this applies to the majority of Alba supporters might go some way to explain their abject failure. 

[Lamia]

16 hours ago, ErsatzThistle said:

If supporters of both the Conservatives (Scottish branch) and the Alba Party had put as much effort into doorstep campaigning as they put into furious, paranoid ranting about the SNP every day on twitter, then they both may have done somewhat better at this recent election.

👍

[stocky]

13 hours ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

 

does the Lib Dem’s vote share in the west highlands not give you the fear? Or Labour gains in the central belt,,  

I think they are just unionist transfers 

Left Tory went lib or lab.

I've not studied all results yet, however that's my gut feeling.

Edited May 7, 2022 by stocky

[aaid]

6 minutes ago, stocky said:

I think they are just unionist transfers 

Left Tory went lib or lab.

I've not studied all results yet, however that's my gut feeling.

Probably best to avoid the word transfers as that has a different meaning in the context of STV.  I think you mean people who voted Tory last time now voting Labour for their first preference.  With that said, I think that’s going to turn out to be the case.  It’s just a redistribution of the unionist vote.   Another thing to remember is that under STV, because say the Greens take a seat from the Tories, it doesn’t mean that a load of Tories have gone out and voted green, it’s more likely that the greens polled better to avoid being eliminated before they could take advantage of transfers.  

Aberdeen is interesting as Aberdeen Labour - they’re still called that - got a lower vote share than the Tories but got more seats, 17.5%/11 vs 21.5%/8 respectively.  I think that was down to Labour polling consistently across the wards whereas the Tories were more  peaks and troughs.  

I don’t see anything of concern for the SNP in these results. 

[aaid]

14 hours ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

Holyrood or Westminster, yes the voting different however you can take a lot from the voting patterns.

does the Lib Dem’s vote share in the west highlands not give you the fear? Or Labour gains in the central belt,,  

Just having a look at Highland now.   Prior to the election, the largest “party” on Highland Council was the independents.  For some reason, that’s fallen right off with seven seats lost. No idea what’s gone on there, well known independents retiring perhaps, who knows but it’ll all be local issues.  Lib Dems +5 and Greens +1 seem to be the beneficiaries of that.

So no, it doesn’t give me the fear. 

[Hertsscot]

Thanks to S.T.V. candidates I voted for actually got elected - first time in my life. Two of my top three! 

[exile]

I wonder if the Greens rising could cause a headache for the SNP down the line in a future GE if pro indy people drawn to voting Green and feeling good about that continue to vote for them (to no avail under FPTP). Depends when the next GE is relative to an indyref2.

[Caledonian Craig]

2 minutes ago, exile said:

I wonder if the Greens rising could cause a headache for the SNP down the line in a future GE if pro indy people drawn to voting Green and feeling good about that continue to vote for them (to no avail under FPTP). Depends when the next GE is relative to an indyref2.

It could be problematic as I can guarantee the unionist media will not recognise the Scottish Greens as being supporters of independence. A vote for them will be painted as a unionist vote.

[aaid]

1 hour ago, Caledonian Craig said:

It could be problematic as I can guarantee the unionist media will not recognise the Scottish Greens as being supporters of independence. A vote for them will be painted as a unionist vote.

Well there seems to be plenty on here who claim to be supporters of independence that don't see the Greens as supporting independence.

I don't see a problem with the Greens for any future FPTP elections.  In Westminster they don't tend to stand in that many constituencies, where they do, it's where they're strong but also where the SNP are strong as well.   They also seem to be very pragmatic about voting SNP when necessary and as they're now in government, in a WM election I could see them not really bothering.

 

[TDYER63]

On 5/6/2022 at 8:01 PM, Lairdyfaeinverclyde said:

I know. Been out playing on my scooter when the weather has been ok, Babysitting the grandweans. How are you doing?

Your grandchildren must be getting big now Lairdy, you will be kept busy chasing after them.
I heard it was National babysitting day yesterday. Was on my way to doggy sit my daughters dog ( no doubt there is a ‘day ‘ for that too🙄) and it was on the radio. Folk had to text in stories of babysitting that went wrong. Someone said they were babysitting young kids and thought they were playing quietly in their rooms till they went to check them to find  the kids had actually dragged a paddling pool out the hall cupboard into their room and been filling it up with water they had sneaked in using a wee cup from the bathroom, then jumping into it from the top bunk 😂

Things are ok with me. No grand children yet. I need to prove I am responsible enough with a dog before my daughters will unleash a baby on me. Think it may have taken a bit of a set back when my daughter caught me sharing my fish supper with the dog last night. 

Good to hear from you again 👍

 

[exile]

1 hour ago, Caledonian Craig said:

It could be problematic as I can guarantee the unionist media will not recognise the Scottish Greens as being supporters of independence. A vote for them will be painted as a unionist vote.

The media have selective blind spots on that front, that's for sure.  But in the end, what matters more is those votes translating into Yes votes when the time comes.

 

15 minutes ago, aaid said:

Well there seems to be plenty on here who claim to be supporters of independence that don't see the Greens as supporting independence.

I don't see a problem with the Greens for any future FPTP elections.  In Westminster they don't tend to stand in that many constituencies, where they do, it's where they're strong but also where the SNP are strong as well.   They also seem to be very pragmatic about voting SNP when necessary and as they're now in government, in a WM election I could see them not really bothering.

 

That makes sense. But still, things could change if the Greens get a sense of 'we can win anywhere'; they must be increasingly tempted to go for more constituencies in future.

[Caledonian Craig]

10 minutes ago, exile said:

The media have selective blind spots on that front, that's for sure.  But in the end, what matters more is those votes translating into Yes votes when the time comes.

Well I'd say it is more likely they will than not. Bear in mind that unionist voters would not align themselves to the Scottish Greens now as they have openly stated their support for independence.