Ukraine

[ThistleWhistle]

15 hours ago, Lamia said:

I have no issue with that at all but they aren't which is my point.

There's something that just isn't sitting right with the coverage at the steel plant for me.  Essentially there is a 1,000+ civillians being held hostage with kids in plastic nappies starving.  It seems the perfect opportunity to cement 'mad bad Vlad' but the coverage seems a little circumspect and the only thing can put it down to is possibly access to the site or that the Nazi regiment involved makes it a tough gig to sell the simple narrative good vs evil.  I genuinely think the coverage would be far greater if it was a steel plant in Kyiv instead and the normal, for want of a better phrase, Ukrainian army held up.  

Two days ago the US are on record as saying they'd be happy for it to drag out as it would weaken Russia and yestedray that there would be monthly calls around arms supply between themselves and their allies.  At the same time Putin was speaking to the UN, and although babysteps at best, this would seem a pretty big deal in the context of what is going on:

Putin agrees ‘in principle’ to UN role in Mariupol evacuations | Russia-Ukraine war News | Al Jazeera

 

This morning on the Beeb him being a bastard turning the gas off in Poland because it's blackmail seems a frankly bizarre position really and that Russia are showing abolutely no sign of wanting peace.  The discussions with the UN are no more than a first step at best but on the other hand the US happy for it to continue to weaken Russia.     

What I think is essentially meaningless but I've kept my eye on the Chinese daily newspapers too and it is pretty obvious who they blame for this - it ain't Russia.  It doesn't even matter if they believe it themselves or whether it's opportunistic.  

The only consistent in reporting in Russia, in the West and in China i've seen is that they're each the good guys plus off the back of it readying their respective populations for what could be a long costly conflict.  This goes way beyond Ukraine for me and think we're seeing the beginning of the cock measuring competition between China and the US get serious.  

[ger intae them]

if it’s a cock measuring comp, get andy Robertson involved!

[Orraloon]

7 minutes ago, ger intae them said:

if it’s a cock measuring comp, get andy Robertson involved!

Is he good with a tape measure like?

[ThistleWhistle]

https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2022/4/28/europe-once-saw-china-relations-through-trade

Thought this was a decent article summarising EU's relationship with China over Ukraine.

[ThistleWhistle]

German energy giant Uniper gives in to Russian rouble demand - BBC News

 

[ThistleWhistle]

US Congress revives WWII-era weapons programme for Ukraine | Russia-Ukraine war News | Al Jazeera

Two months into the war, members of Congress said they hoped the act would work as it did eight decades ago by allowing US companies to quickly resupply partner nations without having to clear bureaucratic hurdles....

...The lend-lease financing arrangement allows the US to provide equipment to Ukraine now, with just a technical requirement to pay at some later date, essentially giving it to the Kyiv government.

 

I could easily be wrong but I always thought it took decades and cost us the arse end of the empire to pay back the US after WW2 so can't really see this being 'free'?

NATO reporting the conflict could last years - Cha-Ching! 

 

[thplinth]

38 minutes ago, ThistleWhistle said:

I could easily be wrong but I always thought it took decades and cost us the arse end of the empire to pay back the US after WW2 so can't really see this being 'free'?

NATO reporting the conflict could last years - Cha-Ching! 

 

Our great ally America made Britain payback every last penny. We only paid it all back relatively recently.

The UK had rationing into the 50's whilst the US enjoyed a golden era.

They forgave Germany all her debts but.

Bunch of yank cunts essentially. Then and now.

If someone can tell me a single thing Britain actually 'won' in WWII I am all ears. Lost the empire, went bankrupt, now a vassal state of the US. Yaaay what an amazing 'victory' That Churchill guy was awesome and not a bought and paid for war mongering drunk who totally fucked Britain.

Edited April 29, 2022 by thplinth

[phart]

56 minutes ago, ThistleWhistle said:

US Congress revives WWII-era weapons programme for Ukraine | Russia-Ukraine war News | Al Jazeera

Two months into the war, members of Congress said they hoped the act would work as it did eight decades ago by allowing US companies to quickly resupply partner nations without having to clear bureaucratic hurdles....

...The lend-lease financing arrangement allows the US to provide equipment to Ukraine now, with just a technical requirement to pay at some later date, essentially giving it to the Kyiv government.

 

I could easily be wrong but I always thought it took decades and cost us the arse end of the empire to pay back the US after WW2 so can't really see this being 'free'?

NATO reporting the conflict could last years - Cha-Ching! 

 

You're conflating lend-lease with the anglo-american loan. Lend-lease was nominal values of the items.

Also it was agreed over 50 years that was why it was so long, i think the final payment was £80 million, it wasn't this huge debt, we paid back something like £2 billion over 50 years. We spunked 17 billion on test and trace in 18 months.

In fact checking it, the final payment was £42.5 million.

Seems the total amount was for $3.75 billion at 2% interest rate.

I thought it was a lot more too. Turns out wasn't that much.

Edited April 29, 2022 by phart

[ThistleWhistle]

43 minutes ago, phart said:

You're conflating lend-lease with the anglo-american loan. Lend-lease was nominal values of the items.

Also it was agreed over 50 years that was why it was so long, i think the final payment was £80 million, it wasn't this huge debt, we paid back something like £2 billion over 50 years. We spunked 17 billion on test and trace in 18 months.

In fact checking it, the final payment was £42.5 million.

Seems the total amount was for $3.75 billion at 2% interest rate.

I thought it was a lot more too. Turns out wasn't that much.

I thought I was conflating the two a bit to be honest but the BBC have it as paying back the lease stuff - the other thing I suppose would be what would have been the point in paying for it if we could have had it for 'free' on the never never?:

BBC NEWS | UK | UK settles WWII debts to allies

It isn't clear cut but they didn't pay back all the lease and lend stuff admittedly.  They did use the loan to buy loads of it at knocked down prices (10% of value i think) because basically we were completely skint.  

In fairness too you're conflating the economy of now with what it was back then.  £2 billion then is c.£20 billion now in real terms so including interest (although chunks of that were actually negative vs inflation) would have paid for over 2 awesome track and trace schemes.  The difference is though the economy is worth about $3 trillion now and I can only see back to 1960 where it was worth $75bn (which is way under 10 times less) and that government borrowing straight after WW2 was touching 300% whereas now it is 95%.  

If that's the same arrangement for Ukraine then the weapons manufactures get paid; The US taxpayer foots a chunk of the bill and; Ukraine will be sold the stuff they need to recover at knock down prices to be paid back over decades unless I'm missing it?  

Their GDP is USD150bn (2020) so potentially their bill is racking up too

[phart]

2 hours ago, ThistleWhistle said:

I thought I was conflating the two a bit to be honest but the BBC have it as paying back the lease stuff - the other thing I suppose would be what would have been the point in paying for it if we could have had it for 'free' on the never never?:

BBC NEWS | UK | UK settles WWII debts to allies

It isn't clear cut but they didn't pay back all the lease and lend stuff admittedly.  They did use the loan to buy loads of it at knocked down prices (10% of value i think) because basically we were completely skint.  

In fairness too you're conflating the economy of now with what it was back then.  £2 billion then is c.£20 billion now in real terms so including interest (although chunks of that were actually negative vs inflation) would have paid for over 2 awesome track and trace schemes.  The difference is though the economy is worth about $3 trillion now and I can only see back to 1960 where it was worth $75bn (which is way under 10 times less) and that government borrowing straight after WW2 was touching 300% whereas now it is 95%.  

If that's the same arrangement for Ukraine then the weapons manufactures get paid; The US taxpayer foots a chunk of the bill and; Ukraine will be sold the stuff they need to recover at knock down prices to be paid back over decades unless I'm missing it?  

Their GDP is USD150bn (2020) so potentially their bill is racking up too

 

It's a complex equation due to money devaluing, inflation rates fluctuating, relative Dollar-Sterling conversion rates etc.

for instance in late 40's you could get 4 dollars to the pound.

You could just go 3.75 x (1.02)^77 for the flat increase rate over 77 years at 2% compound, you'd then need to reduce each subsequent amount by whatever was paid back that year. Then adjust for everything above.

Whatever the total amount was the final installment after all this inflation across the intervening years it was just £42.5 million.

This is under the "cost an arse-end of an empire to pay it back" context. As opposed to Ukraine going to be riddled with debt cause of it context.

We can go to Hansard as well 2002

Lord Stoddart of Swindon: My Lords, will the noble Lord remind me as to exactly how much the loan was, and how much we have repaid since then in principal and interest?

Lord McIntosh of Haringey: My Lords, the loan originally was £1,075 million, of which £244 million is outstanding. The basis of the loan is that interest is paid at 2 per cent. Therefore, we are currently receiving a greater return on our dollar assets than we are paying in interest to pay off the loan. It is a very advantageous loan for us."

 

 

It's up to the government of Ukraine to decide whether it is worth paying or not. They seem quite keen on fighting off the invasion so I imagine they will pay no heed to our armchair logistics.

Edited April 29, 2022 by phart

[phart]

An interesting aside , for me at least, is decent chunk was being paid back to Canada in the same loan it looks like.

[ThistleWhistle]

58 minutes ago, phart said:

 

It's a complex equation due to money devaluing, inflation rates fluctuating, relative Dollar-Sterling conversion rates etc.

for instance in late 40's you could get 4 dollars to the pound.

You could just go 3.75 x (1.02)^77 for the flat increase rate over 77 years at 2% compound, you'd then need to reduce each subsequent amount by whatever was paid back that year. Then adjust for everything above.

Whatever the total amount was the final installment after all this inflation across the intervening years it was just £42.5 million.

This is under the "cost an arse-end of an empire to pay it back" context. As opposed to Ukraine going to be riddled with debt cause of it context.

We can go to Hansard as well 2002

Lord Stoddart of Swindon: My Lords, will the noble Lord remind me as to exactly how much the loan was, and how much we have repaid since then in principal and interest?

Lord McIntosh of Haringey: My Lords, the loan originally was £1,075 million, of which £244 million is outstanding. The basis of the loan is that interest is paid at 2 per cent. Therefore, we are currently receiving a greater return on our dollar assets than we are paying in interest to pay off the loan. It is a very advantageous loan for us."

 

 

It's up to the government of Ukraine to decide whether it is worth paying or not. They seem quite keen on fighting off the invasion so I imagine they will pay no heed to our armchair logistics.

Add in income tax being 50% too across the board for a few years to pay the debt off too.  It is complex no doubt but £20billion now buys you the track and trace whereas that then would have been half the annual defence budget during ww2 outside of 45 which was double.  

The deal of the loan in fiscal terms is decent but not as good as those who didn't pay back anything or a lot less.  Not sure what difference the size of the final installment makes though - surely the more important question is the security at the start and how we paid to start with?  Keynes was sent to negotiate a grant and after 3 month came back with a loan instead that cost them converting sterling balances which essentially knackered the economy further with folk converting £ to $ and opened up the colony trade to the US.  The UK couldn't afford the empire anyway buy then but the US made sure the UK weren't going compete with them going forward.  

The Canada loan is interesting as never realised they'd been involved either from that perspective.  

Something else thought was interesting was the original lease / loan arrangement was done with umpteen countries and was seen as a way to fight Nazism without direct involvement so it essentially is the same deal now.  

Ukraine are in Hobson Choice territory so they're obviously not caring what they have to pay back at the moment.  Think it sums it up nicely though that the weapons manufacturers will get paid market rate; western tax payers won't see most it back (no issue but that's basically how it is) and; Ukraine will be saddled with a debt for years afterwards if the agreement is like the UK one which was supposed to be 'free'.

 

[phart]

Got to be socialist when it comes to the costs and capitalist when it comes to profits

Catch-22 sums it up in the Milo Minderbinder arc all those years ago.

Free-market innit.

A depressing situation all round.

Keynes was saying if we didn't take it we'd have a financial Dunkirk, or so I read about 87 minutes ago googling about this to make sure I wasn't talking pure pish with my first post, which was cobbled together from vague memories of a few books i'd read.

[ErsatzThistle]

6 hours ago, thplinth said:

Our great ally America made Britain payback every last penny. We only paid it all back relatively recently.

The UK had rationing into the 50's whilst the US enjoyed a golden era.

They forgave Germany all her debts but.

Bunch of yank cunts essentially. Then and now.

If someone can tell me a single thing Britain actually 'won' in WWII I am all ears. Lost the empire, went bankrupt, now a vassal state of the US. Yaaay what an amazing 'victory' That Churchill guy was awesome and not a bought and paid for war mongering drunk who totally fucked Britain.

Read a lot of David Irving's books do you ?

[Ally Bongo]

7 hours ago, thplinth said:

If someone can tell me a single thing Britain actually 'won' in WWII I am all ears. Lost the empire, went bankrupt, now a vassal state of the US. Yaaay what an amazing 'victory' That Churchill guy was awesome and not a bought and paid for war mongering drunk who totally fucked Britain.

If Britain had appeased Hitler in 1940, or even worse capitulated, it is entirely plausible that the Nazis would have conquered Russia and life as we know it in Europe would be somewhat different

I guess that is a win

[thplinth]

This historian / economist guy Michael Hudson is very interesting. Interview starts at 23.40.

 

Edited April 30, 2022 by thplinth

[Och Aye]

17 hours ago, Ally Bongo said:

If Britain had appeased Hitler in 1940, or even worse capitulated, it is entirely plausible that the Nazis would have conquered Russia and life as we know it in Europe would be somewhat different

I guess that is a win

I think Stalin breaking the non aggression pact with Germany probably saved Britain.

[Ally Bongo]

16 minutes ago, Och Aye said:

I think Stalin breaking the non aggression pact with Germany probably saved Britain.

That was terminated in June 1941 with Operation Barbarossa

Britain had already held off the Germans 8 months prior to that which resulted in Germany losing almost 2000 aircraft which proved to be a damaging when they Invaded Russia.

The English Channel and the threat of the Royal Navy played a bigger part in saving Britain 

It cannot be understated how much aid the USA and Britain gave to Russia - without it the Germans would have won in the East.

If Britain had appeased or capitulated then that wouldnt have happened

 

 

 

[Och Aye]

31 minutes ago, Ally Bongo said:

That was terminated in June 1941 with Operation Barbarossa

Britain had already held off the Germans 8 months prior to that which resulted in Germany losing almost 2000 aircraft which proved to be a damaging when they Invaded Russia.

The English Channel and the threat of the Royal Navy played a bigger part in saving Britain 

It cannot be understated how much aid the USA and Britain gave to Russia - without it the Germans would have won in the East.

If Britain had appeased or capitulated then that wouldnt have happened

 

 

 

You're right. The heavy losses Russia suffered during the short war with Finland convinced Hitler to attack Russia believing them to be militarily weak.

[Ally Bongo]

 

[thplinth]

Check out the ham performance from this phoney bastard.

When you think about the atrocities committed in Iraq alone it is vomit inducing seeing these rancid pentagon wankers and their crocodile tears. Revolting two faced hypocritical cunts. That is all.

 

[ThistleWhistle]

4 hours ago, thplinth said:

Check out the ham performance from this phoney bastard.

When you think about the atrocities committed in Iraq alone it is vomit inducing seeing these rancid pentagon wankers and their crocodile tears. Revolting two faced hypocritical cunts. That is all.

 

Wonder if his strength of morality stretches to the actions of another invading force back in 2014:

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/4/30/palestinians-slam-israeli-rejection-of-appeal-over-gaza-killings

Kids playing football on a beach who were bombed  not once but tltwice ruled a mistake by the courts of the country doing the bombing. 

World's a fucking cesspit 

[Lamia]

‘Controversial battalion’. Prey tell us why that is Sky News? 🤨https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-war-russia-putin-news-live-nuclear-latest-updates-12541713?postid=3823397#liveblog-body

[Och Aye]

Finland looking like being fast tracked into NATO. Bordering Russia. This ain't looking good. Definitely be putting the fitness kick on hold 🙄

[Malcolm]

On 4/29/2022 at 10:52 AM, thplinth said:

Our great ally America made Britain payback every last penny. We only paid it all back relatively recently.

The UK had rationing into the 50's whilst the US enjoyed a golden era.

They forgave Germany all her debts but.

Bunch of yank cunts essentially. Then and now.

If someone can tell me a single thing Britain actually 'won' in WWII I am all ears. Lost the empire, went bankrupt, now a vassal state of the US. Yaaay what an amazing 'victory' That Churchill guy was awesome and not a bought and paid for war mongering drunk who totally fucked Britain.

Are you Ross Greer?