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Curious, because the divergence in England from the other '3 nations' kicked in just before the new restrictions came in.  [same dataset as above]

image.thumb.png.7abbd951f7dd5bd72b094e2f8342691c.png

 

Edited by exile
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8 hours ago, exile said:

Also curiously, death rates in Scotland are much lower, through this whole period, it seems.

image.thumb.png.0695bc2cbda41c6284308becb1951288.png

I was looking at that last night.

0.6 versus 1.37 for England I believe were the numbers.

But deaths are lagged , also age dependent , booster dependent etc.

Scotland also leads in boosters as well.

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11 hours ago, Squirrelhumper said:

Maybe it was safer going to pub down there after all.

 

Screenshot_20220106-182747_WhatsApp.jpg

Funny how the ONS survey data says the opposite - you would think there was an issue with testing if you didn't know any better......

England has a higher proportion in hospital too.

Edited by Lamia
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12 hours ago, Squirrelhumper said:

Maybe it was safer going to pub down there after all.

 

 

Carlisle might not have been the best choice, though? The northwest is the hotspot of the UK just now. It might be Scotland in a couple of weeks. 

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https://www.scotsman.com/health/coronavirus/covid-scotland-scots-did-not-flock-to-england-for-hogmanay-amid-coronavirus-restrictions-data-shows-3519013

 

Covid Scotland: Scots did not 'flock' to England for Hogmanay amid coronavirus restrictions, data shows

Data from Traffic Scotland and transport operators has revealed no rise in the number of travellers heading south of the border to celebrate the New Year despite harsher rules being enforced on Scottish hospitality.

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16 minutes ago, Ally Bongo said:

https://www.scotsman.com/health/coronavirus/covid-scotland-scots-did-not-flock-to-england-for-hogmanay-amid-coronavirus-restrictions-data-shows-3519013

 

Covid Scotland: Scots did not 'flock' to England for Hogmanay amid coronavirus restrictions, data shows

Data from Traffic Scotland and transport operators has revealed no rise in the number of travellers heading south of the border to celebrate the New Year despite harsher rules being enforced on Scottish hospitality.

 

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27 minutes ago, Ally Bongo said:

https://www.scotsman.com/health/coronavirus/covid-scotland-scots-did-not-flock-to-england-for-hogmanay-amid-coronavirus-restrictions-data-shows-3519013

 

Covid Scotland: Scots did not 'flock' to England for Hogmanay amid coronavirus restrictions, data shows

Data from Traffic Scotland and transport operators has revealed no rise in the number of travellers heading south of the border to celebrate the New Year despite harsher rules being enforced on Scottish hospitality.

You mean the media were talking shite all the time?

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43 minutes ago, Ally Bongo said:

https://www.scotsman.com/health/coronavirus/covid-scotland-scots-did-not-flock-to-england-for-hogmanay-amid-coronavirus-restrictions-data-shows-3519013

 

Covid Scotland: Scots did not 'flock' to England for Hogmanay amid coronavirus restrictions, data shows

Data from Traffic Scotland and transport operators has revealed no rise in the number of travellers heading south of the border to celebrate the New Year despite harsher rules being enforced on Scottish hospitality.

Yeah I saw that. How damning/embarrasing for those plugging this non story, if they were capable of embarrassment.

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56 minutes ago, Morrisandmoo said:

Is there overall death rates for the nations presented in as easy a format to digest? Be interested to see non-covid deaths + covid deaths as Exile has above?

Excess deaths are reported here and z-scores mapped here

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As Scott says there`s not a lot in Carlisle for people to flock to , but I know that people come from Dumfries , Annan & Lockerbie every weekend anyway for a night out because it`s a bit livelier  and usually they get the last train home . 

 

As someone who`s worked in Carlisle for 35 years and still lives in Scotland , I got loads of stick because of this story about " Us Lot " coming down in our thousands and invading their pubs , stealing their women/sheep/cumberland sausage etc none of which appears to have happened .

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14 hours ago, exile said:

Excess deaths are reported here and z-scores mapped here

Awesome, thank you!

Highlights to me the importance of having a wider perspective on society and avoiding a hyper-focus on Covid. Given we (Scotland) are showing covid deaths going down at the end of the year, while excess mortality overall spiked up (albeit I'm not sure what they've done with the delayed registration point) - in contrast to other UK nations.  

If you're deed your deed. 

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1 hour ago, Morrisandmoo said:

Awesome, thank you!

Highlights to me the importance of having a wider perspective on society and avoiding a hyper-focus on Covid. Given we (Scotland) are showing covid deaths going down at the end of the year, while excess mortality overall spiked up (albeit I'm not sure what they've done with the delayed registration point) - in contrast to other UK nations.  

If you're deed your deed. 

Indeed, if you're deid you're deid. But I'm not sure that is an argument for any particular stance. Sure, if you overdo COVID restrictions, more people could die of other things, but if you underdo it, hospitals will pile up with COVID patients and more people will die of non COVID conditions anyway.

Reading the charts I think it would be hard to say that Scotland was a particular outlier in the bigger picture. In any case Wales and Northern Ireland had more restrictions than England so it's hard to conclude whatever caused a very small upturn at the very end was to do with differences in COVID policy.

Looking at the second half of 2021, it would also be hard, I think, to guess which of the '4 nations' had a supposedly massive super-spreading COP26 event. (That's not to say they should or shouldn't have had it, just that the effect is hard to detect at this level of scrutiny)

 image.png.9ae09d0290e1c53e05e2fe6efb31f4d5.png

For me the most striking thing about the charts is the relatively large surge of excess deaths in England a year ago, relative to the other 3 nations - there was not much of a public awareness of that, maybe because of vaccine success.

image.png.186e572e463f48afaf736b1e7e62172b.png

And from this, again, I wouldn't conclude that being overly COVID focused was causing worse excess deaths overall.  

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In the weeks and months that Scotland is doing well it is not a competition with England

In the weeks that Scotland is not - then it is

Unionism 101

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I dont know anyone who was put out to any great degree at New Year because of the hospitality restrictions. Apart from the hospitality industry of course, but the thread is about people travelling to England to seek out a party. Anyone I know who had planned on celebrating were still able to celebrate in lodges , restaurants, their own homes with friends etc . It was like night and day from last year. The main thing  causing restrictions was people testing positive for Covid and having to isolate.


Exaggerated media pish as usual. 

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41 minutes ago, exile said:

Indeed, if you're deid you're deid. But I'm not sure that is an argument for any particular stance. Sure, if you overdo COVID restrictions, more people could die of other things, but if you underdo it, hospitals will pile up with COVID patients and more people will die of non COVID conditions anyway.

And from this, again, I wouldn't conclude that being overly COVID focused was causing worse excess deaths overall.  

I wasn't implicitly making the argument that we are in fact seeing excess deaths as a result of over-doing covid response - rather making a more generalised point. 

Although by definition, being overly covid focused would cause worse excess deaths overall. Maybe there is a wide margin for error (maybe there isn't), but certainly taken too far then you'll get worse results. The way you've framed it - it's like all the measures or zero measures = same result i.e. the bodies pile up just as high either way. Which obviously isn't the case (at least if viewed over a reasonably short timeline) otherwise what are we all worried about (we're all going to die anyway!)

What is too little, too much or just right is the thing we don't know and are obviously all trying to judge. And it's my opinion that basing those judgement on a wide pool of data and insights is better than a narrow pool. In that respect, when assessing which health initiatives to prioritise then total deaths matter imo. 

I wasn't making the argument BTW that we are necessarily too strict (I personally think we were too late with 27Dec restrictions to make a meaningful difference and wouldn't have bothered myself - although the earlier Dec guidance prob made a difference to behaviors). I was more making the argument that I've seen us get very narrow in our public discourse which I believe risks us making sub-optimal choices from time to time (e.g. vaccine passports). 

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1 hour ago, phart said:

On the question at hand

Covid deaths make up the majority of "excess deaths"

Yeah so the difference in Dec is not typical (or at least we're just zooming in too much!) and can see you don't lose much in practice, at the moment, if you look at either covid deaths or excess deaths. 

The total deaths are important too (but for different reasons). I don't think a lot of folk appreciate that current death rates are only as bad as 2015. And even 2020 I think was only as bad as 1999. The reason, to some extent at least, is that folk (experts and laymen alike) love the drama of quoting the excess deaths being "worse on record in peacetime". Another example, in my opinion, of a touch of covid tunnel vision. 

Excess deaths are good for telling us pressure caused by unplanned deaths. Whereas total death rates add perspective and should give us confidence (optimisim?) that we can comfortably adapt to post-covid mortality risk (in time). 

Edited by Morrisandmoo
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27 minutes ago, Morrisandmoo said:

I wasn't implicitly making the argument that we are in fact seeing excess deaths as a result of over-doing covid response - rather making a more generalised point. 

Although by definition, being overly covid focused would cause worse excess deaths overall. Maybe there is a wide margin for error (maybe there isn't), but certainly taken too far then you'll get worse results. The way you've framed it - it's like all the measures or zero measures = same result i.e. the bodies pile up just as high either way. Which obviously isn't the case (at least if viewed over a reasonably short timeline) otherwise what are we all worried about (we're all going to die anyway!)

What is too little, too much or just right is the thing we don't know and are obviously all trying to judge. And it's my opinion that basing those judgement on a wide pool of data and insights is better than a narrow pool. In that respect, when assessing which health initiatives to prioritise then total deaths matter imo. 

I wasn't making the argument BTW that we are necessarily too strict (I personally think we were too late with 27Dec restrictions to make a meaningful difference and wouldn't have bothered myself - although the earlier Dec guidance prob made a difference to behaviors). I was more making the argument that I've seen us get very narrow in our public discourse which I believe risks us making sub-optimal choices from time to time (e.g. vaccine passports). 

I think we're agreed it's about getting the balance right and that by definition, 'overly' anything implies not good.

Maybe I should have said "And from this, again, I wouldn't conclude that being as COVID focused as we have been [which some might criticise for being overly COVID focused] was causing worse excess deaths overall."

I didn't understand the point about framing, as I didn't say anything about all or zero measures. No matter. 

Vaccine passports is another story, another thread... anyhow I have to dash...

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