Toepoke Posted June 20, 2021 Share Posted June 20, 2021 3 minutes ago, Caledonian Craig said: There is this general concensus that Ukraine and Austria will play routinely for a draw but they cannot afford to as, they like us, may risk losing out on goal difference with four points. They play their final fame tomorrow tea-time and only one other group will have been completed by that time. If we are sweating about four points not being enough (if we get them) then the Austrian and Ukrainian squads/coaches will have done the same maths. It will only be the Austria coach doing that. If they draw Ukraine will be 2nd having scored more goals so far. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Caledonian Craig Posted June 20, 2021 Author Share Posted June 20, 2021 2 minutes ago, Toepoke said: It will only be the Austria coach doing that. If they draw Ukraine will be 2nd having scored more goals so far. Yes but that means I can't see there being a pact as such as Ukraine then play a dangerous game of brinkmanship. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toepoke Posted June 20, 2021 Share Posted June 20, 2021 The Austrians like us will be watching today's games and hoping that Switzerland don't rack up a big win. If the Swiss do that then Austria might want to go for a win too, they will probably be expecting Croatia to beat us and trump their goal difference after all. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAVIDB46 Posted June 20, 2021 Share Posted June 20, 2021 (edited) 20 minutes ago, Toepoke said: The Austrians like us will be watching today's games and hoping that Switzerland don't rack up a big win. If the Swiss do that then Austria might want to go for a win too, they will probably be expecting Croatia to beat us and trump their goal difference after all. Really can’t see anything apart from a tame draw with Ukraine and Austria tame draw should get Austria through with 4 and a level goal difference I may be wrong but it the above happens do we almost certainly need a two goal win Edited June 20, 2021 by DAVIDB46 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkm_vancouver Posted June 20, 2021 Share Posted June 20, 2021 This is another reminder of how important it is to win the first game to relieve the pressure (albeit slightly) on remaining two games. It doesn't really matter that our performance was good against Czechs but were unlucky not to get a result. Clarke is now saying that he wanted McTominay in the midfield to strengthen it and this worked?? But aherm we still lost. We were bold against England but we should have been bold against the Czechs, our apparent least difficult game and our performance only really improved after we went behind. You could see the way Italy went for it big style in their first game how important this was. The importance of not just beating Croatia but getting the first goal and then ideally another two goals so we have a positive goal difference may be even more significant. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAVIDB46 Posted June 20, 2021 Share Posted June 20, 2021 The main problem with the third place system, Wednesday group finishes is that these two groups will know exactly what is required. Even if we win Tuesday , we will still almost certainly be waiting and wondering for 24 hours. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orraloon Posted June 20, 2021 Share Posted June 20, 2021 56 minutes ago, McTeeko said: Be brutal if we have to wait until Wednesday. Ideally as you say we want to know where we stand exactly by Tuesday so we know if we win, we ARE through 🤞🏼 Mind you, I'd rather be waiting until Wednesday, in hope, rather than just knowing we are out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marinello Posted June 20, 2021 Share Posted June 20, 2021 Fwiw I feel that by the time we kick off we will know that any type of victory will see us qualified. Remember Turkey still have outside chance of qualifying + the Swiss are hardly prolific goalscorers. Turning to Group B . 3 rd place likely to be either Finland or Denmark or indeed Russia--- all on 3. There you go!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAVIDB46 Posted June 20, 2021 Share Posted June 20, 2021 2 minutes ago, marinello said: Fwiw I feel that by the time we kick off we will know that any type of victory will see us qualified. Remember Turkey still have outside chance of qualifying + the Swiss are hardly prolific goalscorers. Turning to Group B . 3 rd place likely to be either Finland or Denmark or indeed Russia--- all on 3. There you go!! Group B is peculiar as you could get 2nd with 3 points but third place goes out on 3. So fair chance B will be one of the non qualifiers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orraloon Posted June 20, 2021 Share Posted June 20, 2021 1 hour ago, Caledonian Craig said: There is this general concensus that Ukraine and Austria will play routinely for a draw but they cannot afford to as, they like us, may risk losing out on goal difference with four points. They play their final fame tomorrow tea-time and only one other group will have been completed by that time. If we are sweating about four points not being enough (if we get them) then the Austrian and Ukrainian squads/coaches will have done the same maths. Ukraine will be happy with a draw as that would make them 2nd. As you say though Austria might not want to risk it and decide they need to go for the win? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Caledonian Craig Posted June 20, 2021 Author Share Posted June 20, 2021 2 minutes ago, marinello said: Fwiw I feel that by the time we kick off we will know that any type of victory will see us qualified. Remember Turkey still have outside chance of qualifying + the Swiss are hardly prolific goalscorers. Turkey are all but out barring a lot of improbable results. They'd need a crazy win today to erase their bad goal difference and then hope for a set of improbable results to come. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marinello Posted June 20, 2021 Share Posted June 20, 2021 1 minute ago, Caledonian Craig said: Turkey are all but out barring a lot of improbable results. They'd need a crazy win today to erase their bad goal difference and then hope for a set of improbable results to come. Point taken but you would agree on the basis that where there's life theres hope Turkey will still give everything----- thereby making the challenge for Switzerland all the more difficult. And Turkey will have the overwhelming support in the crowd Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Caledonian Craig Posted June 20, 2021 Author Share Posted June 20, 2021 (edited) 3 minutes ago, marinello said: Point taken but you would agree on the basis that where there's life theres hope Turkey will still give everything----- thereby making the challenge for Switzerland all the more difficult. And Turkey will have the overwhelming support in the crowd Oh yes for sure. It is a very slim chance but it is still something for them to cling to. Plus they will have that fervent predominantly all Turkish backing in Baku. End of the day a one goal win for the Swiss isn't enough for them to finish above us either (if we win). Edited June 20, 2021 by Caledonian Craig Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toepoke Posted June 20, 2021 Share Posted June 20, 2021 22 minutes ago, DAVIDB46 said: The main problem with the third place system, Wednesday group finishes is that these two groups will know exactly what is required. Even if we win Tuesday , we will still almost certainly be waiting and wondering for 24 hours. Every cloud though, if we do manage to do enough on Tuesday, Groups E and F knowing what's required will increase the chances of a game at Hampden in Round 2. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orraloon Posted June 20, 2021 Share Posted June 20, 2021 3 minutes ago, marinello said: Point taken but you would agree on the basis that where there's life theres hope Turkey will still give everything----- thereby making the challenge for Switzerland all the more difficult. And Turkey will have the overwhelming support in the crowd I agree Turkey won't be lying down. They will be going for it. And not just for the sake of pride. They will still think they have a chance of qualifying. All my calculations are based on a Scotland win because anything other than that and we are out. Turkey will be thinking there is a good chance our game could be a draw (and a 0-0 one at that ) so that's one third place team out already. They only need another one. Belgium could easily put 5 past Finland. Spain could put 5 past Slovakia although that seems much more unlikely. Turkey won't be giving up until they are out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Caledonian Craig Posted June 20, 2021 Author Share Posted June 20, 2021 I've heard a lot of people beefing about the third place sides having a chance of getting through - pundits and A lot of England fans. I disagree on the strength of the interest it leaves in the groups going into the final fixtures. In the old days Groups A and D would have final fixtures that would see games played that teams could play out for a tame draw as it would guarantee them qualification finishing in the top two. With third place qualification in the mix it keeps much more teams in with a shout until full-time in their last match. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toepoke Posted June 20, 2021 Share Posted June 20, 2021 9 minutes ago, Orraloon said: I agree Turkey won't be lying down. They will be going for it. And not just for the sake of pride. They will still think they have a chance of qualifying. All my calculations are based on a Scotland win because anything other than that and we are out. Turkey will be thinking there is a good chance our game could be a draw (and a 0-0 one at that ) so that's one third place team out already. They only need another one. Belgium could easily put 5 past Finland. Spain could put 5 past Slovakia although that seems much more unlikely. Turkey won't be giving up until they are out. Good shout, we're all guilty at looking at things through tartan specs but others will see Group D as a potential worst of the third placers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Texas Pete Posted June 20, 2021 Share Posted June 20, 2021 51 minutes ago, DAVIDB46 said: Really can’t see anything apart from a tame draw with Ukraine and Austria tame draw should get Austria through with 4 and a level goal difference I may be wrong but it the above happens do we almost certainly need a two goal win Austria won’t play for a draw. That would be a bit risky and surely they would prefer to finish second? Ukraine would be delighted with a draw but that doesn’t mean they’ll play for one either. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Caledonian Craig Posted June 20, 2021 Author Share Posted June 20, 2021 Just now, Texas Pete said: Austria won’t play for a draw. That would be a bit risky and surely they would prefer to finish second? Ukraine would be delighted with a draw but that doesn’t mean they’ll play for one either. Yes that is my thoughts too. It is a massive risk to take. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
exile Posted June 20, 2021 Share Posted June 20, 2021 Turkey have everything to play for, and nothing to lose. Both teams will know a draw will not be good enough so both have to attack, it will be quite a game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toepoke Posted June 20, 2021 Share Posted June 20, 2021 1 hour ago, Caledonian Craig said: Turkey are all but out barring a lot of improbable results. They'd need a crazy win today to erase their bad goal difference and then hope for a set of improbable results to come. If the Turks get a win today they'll be looking for a thumping Belgian victory over Finland and a draw between us and Croatia, with the possible bonus chances of Slovakia surprising Spain or France gubbing Portugal. Unlikely but not impossible, they'll be going all out for 3 points today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bossman4 Posted June 20, 2021 Share Posted June 20, 2021 6 minutes ago, exile said: Turkey have everything to play for, and nothing to lose. Both teams will know a draw will not be good enough so both have to attack, it will be quite a game. Exactly, its not that far fetched that they could still go through. All it takes in Finlad and Denmark loosing tomorrow (highly possible) and a draw in our match and they will go through. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weekevie04 Posted June 20, 2021 Share Posted June 20, 2021 Turkey will go for it. There is a realistic possibility that our game with Croatia ends up a draw, and we'll both be out and make us one of the poorer groups. Say Belgium put 4 past Finland and Turkey win 2-0 (in a 'home' Baku game) against Switzerland, they could sneak the last 3rd best place. Poland could also draw with Sweden in their last game, and go out as well on 2 points. Every team will go for it in their final game, even Macedonia (who have been brilliant, IMO) whilst out, they'll want to get their first ever point(s) at a major final. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Caledonian Craig Posted June 20, 2021 Author Share Posted June 20, 2021 We can follow the Switzerland V Turkey game live on ITV4. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romanticscot Posted June 20, 2021 Share Posted June 20, 2021 (edited) So as we begin the 3rd round of games, here is my assessment on how the groups will end, in short we need to beat Croatia and we only need need two 3rd places teams to have less points than us, or have worse GD and I believe there are lots of groups that give us coverage. Assuming we win and I am going to say by 1 goal, these are my thoughts on the other groups. Group A Switzerland will win today, but not by 2 or more goals. A draw or a Turkey win is great. Group B Denmark to beat Russia, but not by more than 2 , so its Finland or Denmark in 3rd with 3 points. If the two scenarios happen then that's all we need, but... Group C - This one is hard to call, but there is some buffer that either Ukraine or Austria win that's another group with 3rd on 3. A draw isn't what we want. Group E - I believe Spain will beat Slovakia, putting Slovakia most likely into 3rd with 3 points - another great scenario for us. Group F - Germany will end on 6 points, now France v Portugal - hard to call, France will most likely win leaving Portugal in 3rd with 3. So this in my view has 3 groups with a real possibility going our way, with two more maybe's - the odd's are definitely in our favor Edited June 20, 2021 by romanticscot Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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