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The Mathematics Thread


Caledonian Craig

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Beginning to think that a draw between the Czechs and Croatia would be the best result for us tomorrow.

Having the chance to beat Croatia and finish 3rd would probably be best, whereas if Croatia win we would well beat them in the last game and finish bottom regardless.

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All depends on whether there will be two or three teams tied on 3 points in the final table. But it does look like if we take nothing from Wembley we'll need to beat Croatia at least 2-0.

 

Edited by Toepoke
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I reckon, without any authority on it, that the Czech's just beat Croatia and take 2nd place in the group before we even kick-off tomorrow. That way, no matter what happens against England (aside from being gubbed and GD going down a ton) we will be into Hampden on Tuesday night as a "cup final" Vs Croatia for 3rd place?

Euro 2016 third placed teams that DIDN'T make it into the Last 16 had -2 GD. That's how close it was.

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9 minutes ago, TartanSparkle said:

I reckon, without any authority on it, that the Czech's just beat Croatia and take 2nd place in the group before we even kick-off tomorrow. That way, no matter what happens against England (aside from being gubbed and GD going down a ton) we will be into Hampden on Tuesday night as a "cup final" Vs Croatia for 3rd place?

Euro 2016 third placed teams that DIDN'T make it into the Last 16 had -2 GD. That's how close it was.

probably needing a 3-0 or better win though

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I think the way things are shaping up, it’s highly unlikely we’ll go through on 3 points, particularly if that has involved any sort of heavy defeat to England. I’m pretty certain we’ll need to get something off England to get through. 
First things first we really do need Belgium to come back and win this game. 

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6 minutes ago, Marky said:

I think the way things are shaping up, it’s highly unlikely we’ll go through on 3 points, particularly if that has involved any sort of heavy defeat to England. I’m pretty certain we’ll need to get something off England to get through. 
First things first we really do need Belgium to come back and win this game. 

For those of us who are mathematically challenged, can you explain why please?

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3 minutes ago, Third Lanark said:

For those of us who are mathematically challenged, can you explain why please?

Well if Denmark win then all three teams in the group will already have three points going into their last games. Denmark play Russia and they'd quite likely play for a draw knowing four points will see each though. That all changes if Belgium can at least equalise as Denmark would have one point going into their last game and would need a win against Russia. Belgium also would be keen to win their last game against Finland. If those results came about then the third placed team would finish on three points.

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1 minute ago, Caledonian Craig said:

Well if Denmark win then all three teams in the group will already have three points going into their last games. Denmark play Russia and they'd quite likely play for a draw knowing four points will see each though. That all changes if Belgium can at least equalise as Denmark would have one point going into their last game and would need a win against Russia. Belgium also would be keen to win their last game against Finland. If those results came about then the third placed team would finish on three points.

Thanks. On a more positive note, aren't Denmark showing how we should tackle England? Win all our 50-50s right at the start?

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We need as many 3rd place teams to have 3 points as possible, Denmark losing today would mean they can only get 3 points.  Having many 3 point 3rd places team (deep breath) would give us some buffer should we lose tomorrow as... only 4 out of 6 of the 3rd place teams progress.  My estimation last night was there would only be three groups with 3rd place on 3 points, but if Denmark win or even draw today that goes down to 2, the other result we want is Portugal to beat Germany.  Having 3 other groups with possible 3 pointer 3rd place teams if we drew yesterday, all we needed to do would be beat Croatia and we would be on 4 points and go through, but us having 3 points as a maximum means our GD puts us in jeopardy of going out.  Clearly lots of football to go for us.  Please Belgium win.

Edited by romanticscot
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10 minutes ago, Malcolm said:

We shouldn’t be worried about this... need to take care of our own business.

It just adds a wee bit of interest. Let's face we all know we won't get 3 points anyway and even if we did we would go out on GD. :lol:

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I know it's obvious to say so but I don't think we can rely on 3 points to get us through, or even rely on beating Croatia in the first place. If we get beaten by England we will have one foot out the tournament and most likely out our hands.

So I think we need to go into the game with the aim of winning it (even if that means winning it on the counter; I don't mean winning via an all out attack)

The worst thing would be to try to grind out a 0-0 draw then concede a late goal anyway - and then face going into the last match with qualification not even in our hands, where a win could be not enough, and then failing to win anyway.

OK, it would be bad to get slaughtered tomorrow, but arguably worse to go out having never played our best team or having tried to win every game.

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It will be interesting to know if Scotland would play any differently by knowing the result of the Czech-Croatia match.

If Czechs win, they'll be surely as good as qualified (?) while Croatia would be scrapping with us over third place.

If Croatia win, they'll presumably be confident of getting at least a point at Hampden and likely qualification on 4+ points.

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25 minutes ago, GHfaeGTA said:

If you finish on same points is it goal difference or head to head that counts? 

It's head to head first. But that only applies within each group, obviously.

To separate the third place teams in different groups it's points then GD.

 

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