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The Mathematics Thread


Caledonian Craig

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2 minutes ago, Bobby Russell's Lovechild said:

Here's a conundrum. If Denmark beat Russia and Finland lose to Belgium, who the fuck ends up where. Russia, Finland and Denmark will all be on three points (great for us), but Finland beat Denmark, Russia beat Finland and then Denmark beat Russia😳. Hows that head to head worked out?!?

It would go down to goal difference from the games involving the three teams rather than head to heads. 

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Just now, Caledonian Craig said:

My one worry here is if Ukraine force an equaliser both sides will then settle for the draw. Austria spurning great chances.

They just spurned another from Arnautovic 

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20 minutes ago, Caledonian Craig said:

Austria the much better side there. 1-0 up at half-time but should have been more. Gradually, the longer they are 1-0 up the more they'll settle for 1-0 and start playing deeper and deeper.

If Ukraine do score it’s probably better for us if it happens early in the second half. 

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8 hours ago, TDYER63 said:

😂 it would appear  you missed your shot of ‘glass half full’ today Exile. 

My fear is that we actually do the business but fail to qualify through some random sequence of events elsewhere.  I think I would rather we get pumped 5-0 by Croatia  than crash out under those circumstances. 

I can see both sides, half empty and half full.

For those taking the field of play of course you have to be positive and believe you can win, for whatever reason, because you beat them before, because your side is on the up, because you have home advantage.

But as fans working out our chances based on permutations of other teams' scores, it's reasonable to be analytic about it, and add the probability of Scotland winning as one of the variables.

If we're (say) twice as likely to go through with a 2-0 compared to 1-0, due to other group results, it's reasonable also to consider that we could be half as likely to actually win 2-0 as 1-0...

Edited by exile
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Not sure I can face the agonising wait for the Austria Ukraine game to play out.

With Scotland games, always. But there's a limit to participating in other teams' agonising game endings...

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3 minutes ago, exile said:

Not sure I can face the agonising wait for the Austria Ukraine game to play out.

With Scotland games, always. But there's a limit to participating in other teams' agonising game endings...

What will be will be.

Even if we go out having beaten Croatia we can take stacks from the tournament.

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