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The Mathematics Thread


Caledonian Craig

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13 minutes ago, Texas Pete said:

I don’t think there’s any need to worry yet. 

If we win on Tuesday and England lose we could still finish second in the group. Even if England don’t lose we will be highly unlikely to go out as 4 points should be enough to go through as a best placed third place.

We already know a 2 goal victory would be enough for at least 5th best third place finisher but as long as 2 of the following happens we would go through with any victory:

Group B

Finland lose to Belgium

or

Russia fail to beat Denmark

Group C

Ukraine v Austria does not end in a draw (a draw in this match is not the forgone conclusion that some people think)

Group E 

Poland fail to beat Sweden 

Group F

France beat Portugal and Hungary fail to beat Germany 

or

Hungary beat Germany and France beat Portugal

or

Hungary fail to beat Germany and Portugal beat France by 3 clear goals 

There are probably other permutations that would see it a go through with a victory of any sort (but particularly a victory by 2 clear goals) but I need a lie down after coming up with these ones.

The main thing we need to worry about is beating Croatia. If we do that and it’s not enough to go through then so be it. 

So it's pretty likely we go through with a win. Belgium will surely beat Finland and one of those other scenarios is bound to happen. 

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7 minutes ago, mccaughey85 said:

 

So it's pretty likely we go through with a win. Belgium will surely beat Finland and one of those other scenarios is bound to happen. 

You’d hope so. Belgium will likely rest a few players and they did look pretty average without KDB and Eden Hazard in the first half against Denmark but the Danes were fired up and are a better team than Finland.

What will be will be though as they say and if we do beat Croatia and go out then we can just add it to our long list of sob stories. 

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3 minutes ago, gkm_vancouver said:

Will the big guns not want to win their last game also for a better draw?  If Italy, Belgium, Netherlands and poss France all win to get an advantageous draw that should help??

Netherlands and Italy have already won their groups and Belgium only need a draw to win theirs. France will definitely want to win their last game but we would also need another result to go our way on that group if we win and finish third. 

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1 hour ago, Caledonian Craig said:

Hmm no as they'd be playing gross brinkmanship. As theirs is the second group to be completed. They will be thinking Croatia quite easily could win against us and finished with a better record than them. And all other groups are still live and they could end up missing out.

Ah right I didn't realise the Group C games were before Group B. That's a bonus.

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Group E is very interesting - it looks wide open. Slovakia could crash out if they lose, they need to take something from their game, if they draw with Spain then Spain are in trouble. In fact, two draws would do nicely.  

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11 minutes ago, exile said:

Group E is very interesting - it looks wide open. Slovakia could crash out if they lose, they need to take something from their game, if they draw with Spain then Spain are in trouble. In fact, two draws would do nicely.  

It would take a very specific result in that group for it to not contribute one of the teams who miss out. 
 

It would need a single goal Poland victory over Sweden. If that happened it  would then be down to goals scored us vs Sweden. They’ve currently scored 1. 

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11 minutes ago, GaryWood34 said:

Odds are heavily in our favour tomorrow. Heavily. 
 

This time tomorrow night I am Very confident that we will know that ANY win v Croatia takes us through. 
 

 

Hopefully a victory in the Austria - Ukraine game tea time tomorrow sets us up nicely to cheer on Belgium in the evening. 
 

Then we would know we just need to take care of business. 

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1 hour ago, GaryWood34 said:

Odds are heavily in our favour tomorrow. Heavily. 
 

This time tomorrow night I am Very confident that we will know that ANY win v Croatia takes us through. 
 

 

I think Group B is fine but Austria and Ukraine will both be more than happy with a draw. Austria will have a 99% chance of going through with 4 points. 
 

we probably need an early goal but they’ll both be unadventurous. Bookies have a draw at evens. 

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22 minutes ago, Super_Scotlandfan said:

I think Group B is fine but Austria and Ukraine will both be more than happy with a draw. Austria will have a 99% chance of going through with 4 points. 
 

we probably need an early goal but they’ll both be unadventurous. Bookies have a draw at evens. 

I doubt Austria would be happy with a draw. They could potentially go out with 4 points and a goal difference of 0. Unlikely but possible. They would also likely have a more favourable draw if they qualify automatically in second place. 

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17 minutes ago, Texas Pete said:

I doubt Austria would be happy with a draw. They could potentially go out with 4 points and a goal difference of 0. Unlikely but possible. They would also likely have a more favourable draw if they qualify automatically in second place. 

Why risk a 99%+ chance of going through for a slightly better draw.

Although, I do think it’ll be a relatively normal game up until 60mins ish. And if it’s a draw at that point we won’t see much attacking for the rest of the game. 
 

will be interesting but probably a very frustrating watch for us..!

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15 minutes ago, Super_Scotlandfan said:

Why risk a 99%+ chance of going through for a slightly better draw.

Although, I do think it’ll be a relatively normal game up until 60mins ish. And if it’s a draw at that point we won’t see much attacking for the rest of the game. 
 

will be interesting but probably a very frustrating watch for us..!

To have a better chance of getting to the quarter finals? 

Football players have pride in performance. The teams will want to play well and they will want to score goals. Ukraine might play for a draw but I’m sure Austria will be trying to win the game. They definitely won’t take as many risks as they would if they were in our position but they won’t be passing the ball around like they did in 1982. 

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16 minutes ago, Texas Pete said:

To have a better chance of getting to the quarter finals? 

Football players have pride in performance. The teams will want to play well and they will want to score goals. Ukraine might play for a draw but I’m sure Austria will be trying to win the game. They definitely won’t take as many risks as they would if they were in our position but they won’t be passing the ball around like they did in 1982. 

2nd place will play an in form Italy, it might be better to finish 3rd. 

Although I do agree mostly, I just think the situation will lead to a draw. Particularly if it’s even mid way through the 2nd half. 
 

 

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4 hours ago, Texas Pete said:

I doubt Austria would be happy with a draw. They could potentially go out with 4 points and a goal difference of 0. Unlikely but possible. They would also likely have a more favourable draw if they qualify automatically in second place. 

Agree with this, bookies have this game odds on to be a draw which is almost unheard of.

It would be Karma tho if Austria did play for a draw and get knocked out, anyone remember them and West Germany doing the exact same thing in Spain 82?

A 1-0 win for the Germans put both teams thru, Germany scored early on and neither team tried to score for the next 80 minutes, fkn disgraceful as it meant Algeria were eliminated.

Algeria had played earlier in the day, so both teams knew exactly what was required, that’s why the rules were changed that final group games had to be played simultaneously, scant consolation to the Algerians ( who had beat Germany in the first game).

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8 hours ago, AlfieMoon said:

It would take a very specific result in that group for it to not contribute one of the teams who miss out. 
 

It would need a single goal Poland victory over Sweden. If that happened it  would then be down to goals scored us vs Sweden. They’ve currently scored 1. 

I see. Also if Poland won 2-0, and we won 1-0, then we and Sweden would both have same GD and goals scored.

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So it seems there are several 'likely' scenarios where we could go though if we beat Croatia. 

But beating Croatia is probably one of the less likely scenarios in the first place.

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36 minutes ago, exile said:

So it seems there are several 'likely' scenarios where we could go though if we beat Croatia. 

But beating Croatia is probably one of the less likely scenarios in the first place.

True. But lets remember we drew with England a few days after they had beaten Croatia and we've played Croatia five times and are unbeaten.

We know it won't be easy and lots will need to go in our favour for us to win but first and foremost we must walk onto that pitch with the right mindset and one of 'probably unlikely' to win will kill us before a ball is kicked.

We fall short then we take the experience of being back at a major tournament from this. We take having gone to one of the top ranked sides in the world on their own turf and deserved a draw. We take seeing the emergence of a new star in Billy Gilmour and being integrated into our side.

Edited by Caledonian Craig
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12 minutes ago, Caledonian Craig said:

True. But lets remember we drew with England a few days after they had beaten Croatia and we've played Croatia five times and are unbeaten.

We know it won't be easy and lots will need to go in our favour for us to win but first and foremost we must walk onto that pitch with the right mindset and one of 'probably unlikely' to win will kill us before a ball is kicked.

We fall short then we take the experience of being back at a major tournament from this. We take having gone to one of the top ranked sides in the world on their own turf and deserved a draw. We take seeing the emergence of a new star in Billy Gilmour and being integrated into our side.

Also, arguably England have a better squad than an aging Croatia squad, and surely home advantage could get us over the line

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56 minutes ago, Caledonian Craig said:

True. But lets remember we drew with England a few days after they had beaten Croatia and we've played Croatia five times and are unbeaten.

We know it won't be easy and lots will need to go in our favour for us to win but first and foremost we must walk onto that pitch with the right mindset and one of 'probably unlikely' to win will kill us before a ball is kicked.

We fall short then we take the experience of being back at a major tournament from this. We take having gone to one of the top ranked sides in the world on their own turf and deserved a draw. We take seeing the emergence of a new star in Billy Gilmour and being integrated into our side.

There are two different mindsets at play: the self-confidence the players who as you say must believe they can win; and the mindest of fans watching out for the permutations if we win; and also on the day, where some patience may be required as the first goal will be crucial.

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19 minutes ago, exile said:

There are two different mindsets at play: the self-confidence the players who as you say must believe they can win; and the mindest of fans watching out for the permutations if we win; and also on the day, where some patience may be required as the first goal will be crucial.

Any fans of any country in the mix will be looking at permutations - it is only natural.

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3 hours ago, Jersey Jim said:

Agree with this, bookies have this game odds on to be a draw which is almost unheard of.

It would be Karma tho if Austria did play for a draw and get knocked out, anyone remember them and West Germany doing the exact same thing in Spain 82?

A 1-0 win for the Germans put both teams thru, Germany scored early on and neither team tried to score for the next 80 minutes, fkn disgraceful as it meant Algeria were eliminated.

Algeria had played earlier in the day, so both teams knew exactly what was required, that’s why the rules were changed that final group games had to be played simultaneously, scant consolation to the Algerians ( who had beat Germany in the first game).

Aye, the guy two posts up from you did 🤣

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