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The Mathematics Thread


Caledonian Craig

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1 minute ago, Caledonian Craig said:

That is a possibility but no way will three points get you through that is why I am sure Denmark are out.

If Denmark beat Russia 2 nil and Belgium beat Finland, the Danes will be 2nd in the group.

 

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4 minutes ago, Caledonian Craig said:

That is a possibility but no way will three points get you through that is why I am sure Denmark are out.

Bizarrely three points will almost certainly be out in third, but three points may get you through in second in this group 

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12 minutes ago, Orraloon said:

How can you have a penalty shoot out 400 miles apart. Is Captain Kirk going to teleport the keepers in between stadiums? :lol:

 

There are other methods of transportation other than teleportation, you know. We could just set up a wormhole. 😛

(Or fly down to Wembley the next day)

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1 minute ago, DAVIDB46 said:

Bizarrely three points will almost certainly be out in third, but three points may get you through in second in this group 

True.

If that happened the Russia I think would be 4th for having the worse goal difference of the three with whoever either has the better goal difference between Denmark and Finland or then onto goals scored as to who finishes second.

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12 minutes ago, Caledonian Craig said:

Actually no they would still finish behind Finland as Finland beat them in their first match.

Yes but if three teams are tied it’s not the head to head between 2 teams that counts it’s the points gained in the matches between the three teams which would be 3 points each. I haven’t worked out the permutations for that group as I don’t really care but it is likely that Denmark could still go through in second with a big win against Russia. 

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2 minutes ago, King Of Paisley said:

Is it just me or do I have the feeling all this could bite us on the arse

We bit ourselves on the arse with the missed chances v the Czechs. Even a consolation goal there could've made a big difference. 

It's looking likely we'll have a target to aim for on Tuesday anyway. Probably a two goal win, with the consolation that any win might be enough. I'd have bitten a hand off (rather than an arse) for that scenario at full time last Monday.

 

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Just now, Texas Pete said:

Yes but if three teams are tied it’s not the head to head between 2 teams that counts it’s the points gained in the matches between the three teams which would be 3 points each. I haven’t worked out the permutations for that group as I don’t really care but it is likely that Denmark could still go through in second with a big win against Russia. 

Yes I accounted for Finland getting something against Belgium. If Finland, Denmark and Russia finish on three points they can't go by head-to-heads as they have all beaten each other. It would then come down to goal difference which would probably place Russia last in the group. If Denmark and Finland still can't be split it would come down to goals scored which Denmark would probably win on.

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1 minute ago, Toepoke said:

We bit ourselves on the arse with the missed chances v the Czechs. Even a consolation goal there could've made a big difference. 

It's looking likely we'll have a target to aim for on Tuesday anyway. Probably a two goal win, with the consolation that any win might be enough. I'd have bitten a hand off (rather than an arse) for that scenario at full time last Monday.

 

Indeed.

Still it is much more fun being involved and having something to hope for and Scotland to cheer on. Imagine what interest there would have been otherwise in these scenarios?

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9 minutes ago, Toepoke said:

We bit ourselves on the arse with the missed chances v the Czechs. Even a consolation goal there could've made a big difference. 

It's looking likely we'll have a target to aim for on Tuesday anyway. Probably a two goal win, with the consolation that any win might be enough. I'd have bitten a hand off (rather than an arse) for that scenario at full time last Monday.

 

Hoping Belgium turn it on against the Finns, Denmark take something and Austria beat Ukraine 

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3 minutes ago, King Of Paisley said:

Hoping Belgium turn it on against the Finns, Denmark take something and Austria beat Ukraine 

That would be ideal, unfortunately the group A results mean the ball doesn't need to leave the centre circle in the Ukraine v Austria game.

 

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The more I am reading this thread the more its creating some anxiety. I stand by my earlier view, tomorrow we will have one group beneath us if not two, and if we only have 1 then group E and F could still go our way if we needed them to.  

I don't think Belgium will start with a weak team, De Bruyne and Hazard need some minutes and then they will have close to a week before the 2nd round game. 

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6 minutes ago, Toepoke said:

That would be ideal, unfortunately the group A results mean the ball doesn't need to leave the centre circle in the Ukraine v Austria game.

 

Second place get Italy aye so third will take a draw all day whilst second will want to take it easy as win will mean fuck all. 

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8 minutes ago, Toepoke said:

That would be ideal, unfortunately the group A results mean the ball doesn't need to leave the centre circle in the Ukraine v Austria game.

 

Hmm no as they'd be playing gross brinkmanship. As theirs is the second group to be completed. They will be thinking Croatia quite easily could win against us and finished with a better record than them. And all other groups are still live and they could end up missing out.

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7 minutes ago, Caledonian Craig said:

Hmm no as they'd be playing gross brinkmanship. As theirs is the second group to be completed. They will be thinking Croatia quite easily could win against us and finished with a better record than them. And all other groups are still live and they could end up missing out.

I agree. 

I am confident with group b we will get the result(s) we want. Belgium will beat Finland and Denmark will beat Russia. And we don't need both of these results, only one.

Group c is more unpredictable.  It may end up a draw but could also be a win for either Austria or Ukraine.  It is difficult and risky to play for draw, especially for Austria who are currently in 3rd, so I think both will be going for win.

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I don’t think there’s any need to worry yet. 

If we win on Tuesday and England lose we could still finish second in the group. Even if England don’t lose we will be highly unlikely to go out as 4 points should be enough to go through as a best placed third place.

We already know a 2 goal victory would be enough for at least 5th best third place finisher but as long as 2 of the following happens we would go through with any victory:

Group B

Finland lose to Belgium

or

Russia fail to beat Denmark

Group C

Ukraine v Austria does not end in a draw (a draw in this match is not the forgone conclusion that some people think)

Group E 

Poland fail to beat Sweden 

Group F

France beat Portugal and Hungary fail to beat Germany 

or

Hungary beat Germany and France beat Portugal

or

Hungary fail to beat Germany and Portugal beat France by 3 clear goals 

There are probably other permutations that would see it a go through with a victory of any sort (but particularly a victory by 2 clear goals) but I need a lie down after coming up with these ones.

The main thing we need to worry about is beating Croatia. If we do that and it’s not enough to go through then so be it. 

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