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The Mathematics Thread


Caledonian Craig

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3 minutes ago, Jersey Jim said:

My scenario above would also see us finishing second.

1-0 to the Czechs and 2-0 to us 👍

I'd just take any win in our final game. I couldn't give a toss about England. One possible match if we finish third could see us play Netherlands in the knockout phase. I'd take that right now. However, I just worry this is just another set up for big disappointment.

Edited by Caledonian Craig
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6 minutes ago, Jersey Jim said:

If the Czechs beat England 1-0 and we beat Croatia 2-0, Czechs win the group, we’ll be second and England third.

In that scenario We’d both be on 4 points, the head to head was a draw so we’d finish second having scored 2 goals to their 1.

🤞🏻

Well I'm not really expecting us to score any goals to be honest so scoring two sounds a wee bit far fetched to me. :lol:

 

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20 minutes ago, Orraloon said:

Well I'm not really expecting us to score any goals to be honest so scoring two sounds a wee bit far fetched to me. :lol:

 

I doubted we would get a draw against England, and I am sure you did too 🙂 Tonight has told us anything can happen. 

 

 

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19 minutes ago, Tartan Chris said:

Same situation as 1996 then, a 0-0 draw and 2-0 defeat.

Spooky but good news is 1-0 win in final game and would take incredible set of results for that not to be good enough to get into last 16.

That's facinating. 

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3 hours ago, Bobby Russell's Lovechild said:

So really, the 1-1 draw yesterday afternoon was the best result. A Czech victory would have even more likely resulted in an England victory, as Czechs finishing second is an easier next round game, and we would have no chance in finishing second

The way it's worked out yesterday's result at Hampden doesn't affect what we need to do or how impacts our chances, other than Croatia now need to win rather than play for a draw.

 

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1 minute ago, Toepoke said:

The way it's worked out yesterday's result at Hampden doesn't affect what we need to do or how impacts our chances, other than Croatia now need to win rather than play for a draw.

 

Agreed but we should go into the match fired up and full of confidence whereas Croatia's attitude V Czechs suggest they think they just need to turn up to win.

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19 minutes ago, Orraloon said:

If we are 2nd in the group it looks like we get Spain or Sweden. I think I'd prefer Netherlands so we'd be best just going for 3rd place. ;)

I'd prefer Sweden if I could pick but let's handle Croatia first and I'm happy with anyone.

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It’s going to be seriously hard to beat Croatia on Tuesday (stating the obvious, I know). They’re still a really good, strong team. Modric and Perisic are still class. We haven’t scored goal yet. 
 

I think we can do it but we have to score first and put in a performance at least as good as last night.

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3 minutes ago, The Black Bra said:

It’s going to be seriously hard to beat Croatia on Tuesday (stating the obvious, I know). They’re still a really good, strong team. Modric and Perisic are still class. We haven’t scored goal yet. 
 

I think we can do it but we have to score first and put in a performance at least as good as last night.

Yes it will be tough but we have stuff going for us too. So much to take from last night's result ands performance injecting so much confidence and adrenaline into the players, a bunch of players who play as a team at a good tempo and we are unbeaten in five games against them. 

It is odd. Croatia are here as World Cup runners-up but we have offered much more in an attacking sense than they have. Sure they have one goal to our none but we have had more shots on goal over the tournament around double that of Croatia. They came looking for a draw V England and hardly played with a burning desire V Czech Republic and their press are seriously on their back.

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We've given ourselves a chance and that's all we could have asked for, especially after a horrendous start. 

Only major concern is lack of finishing prowess, but all it'll take is the defence to be as solid as they were and one goal.

No doubt about it, it'll be a difficult game. Croatia whilst on a bit of slump right now and an aging side - Modric 35 , Vida 32, Perisic 32, Lovren 32 etc, are still brilliant players.

BUT we should celebrate, we did a very 'un-Scottish' thing last night by playing brilliant and not losing out to a silly goal or so. 

A cup final for both us and the Croats on Tuesday. I'd certainly have taken that if we had a choice pre-tournament. 

I've read this thread, but tried to avoid it as well as felt it was tempting fate, but it's interesting to read all the takes. And how nice is it, that it is realistically in our hands - it'll take a momentous effort for us not to go through if we gain four points. 

And IF we get through in either first, second or third - bring on whoever we face next round. Preferably Sweden TBH if I could choose, look pretty dire and dull and fairly old as well. 

 

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7 minutes ago, weekevie04 said:

 

And IF we get through in either first, second or third - bring on whoever we face next round. Preferably Sweden TBH if I could choose, look pretty dire and dull and fairly old as well. 

 

We can't win the group now and we can't overtake Czech Rep. We can still get 2nd but only if Czech Rep beat England. But I'll be happy with 2nd or third. We can only get 2nd or 3rd by winning on Tuesday. So that 4 points should see us through barring some highly unlikely results in the other groups. 

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11 minutes ago, weekevie04 said:

We've given ourselves a chance and that's all we could have asked for, especially after a horrendous start. 

Only major concern is lack of finishing prowess, but all it'll take is the defence to be as solid as they were and one goal.

No doubt about it, it'll be a difficult game. Croatia whilst on a bit of slump right now and an aging side - Modric 35 , Vida 32, Perisic 32, Lovren 32 etc, are still brilliant players.

BUT we should celebrate, we did a very 'un-Scottish' thing last night by playing brilliant and not losing out to a silly goal or so. 

A cup final for both us and the Croats on Tuesday. I'd certainly have taken that if we had a choice pre-tournament. 

I've read this thread, but tried to avoid it as well as felt it was tempting fate, but it's interesting to read all the takes. And how nice is it, that it is realistically in our hands - it'll take a momentous effort for us not to go through if we gain four points. 

And IF we get through in either first, second or third - bring on whoever we face next round. Preferably Sweden TBH if I could choose, look pretty dire and dull and fairly old as well. 

 

It's hard to even criticise the strikers, because they have played so well. Dykes especially has been desperately unlucky. Adams maybe could have done better with a couple of finishes, but he is a classy player with an amazing first touch. I think the goals will come.

First is impossible since the Czechs and England can't both get zero points in the last game. 2nd and 3rd are still possibilities though. 4 points will be almost a guarantee, so we don't have to really look at any other game. We know what we need to do.

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6 minutes ago, Tartan blood said:

It's hard to even criticise the strikers, because they have played so well. Dykes especially has been desperately unlucky. Adams maybe could have done better with a couple of finishes, but he is a classy player with an amazing first touch. I think the goals will come.

First is impossible since the Czechs and England can't both get zero points in the last game. 2nd and 3rd are still possibilities though. 4 points will be almost a guarantee, so we don't have to really look at any other game. We know what we need to do.

Aye, good point there. 

Second or third it might well be. 

Still a lot of stuff to do, but quietly optimistic about Tuesday. 

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1 hour ago, Orraloon said:

Third place in group D seems to have a lot of options. How do they decide who goes where? I haven't looked at this before as I didn't think there was even a remote possibility that it would happen. :lol:

We'd either play Netherlands in Budapest, Belgium/Finland in Seville or Spain/Sweden/Slovakia/Poland in Glasgow.

All depends which 4 groups provide the best 3rd placed teams

 

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1 hour ago, Toepoke said:

We'd either play Netherlands in Budapest, Belgium/Finland in Seville or Spain/Sweden/Slovakia/Poland in Glasgow.

All depends which 4 groups provide the best 3rd placed teams

 

This table contains all the permutations involving our group...

1161733482_Screenshot2021-05-27at10_59_3

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Is there not a scenario where we could beat Croatia, be on 4 points, and still not make it through? Everyone seems to be certain that 4 points will definitely get us through. But if we win 1-0, we'd be on 4 points and -1 goal difference. Then...

A If Switzerland beat Turkey 3-0, they'd be in 3rd place with 4 points and 0 goal difference.

B If Finland draw with Belgium, and Russia beat Denmark, Finland would be in 3rd place with 4 points and a 0 goal difference. 

C If Ukraine and Austria draw (very likely), Austria would be in 3rd place with 4 points and a 0 goal difference. 

See where I'm going with this? Please someone tell me I'm wrong. 

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21 minutes ago, archie james said:

Is there not a scenario where we could beat Croatia, be on 4 points, and still not make it through? Everyone seems to be certain that 4 points will definitely get us through. But if we win 1-0, we'd be on 4 points and -1 goal difference. Then...

A If Switzerland beat Turkey 3-0, they'd be in 3rd place with 4 points and 0 goal difference.

B If Finland draw with Belgium, and Russia beat Denmark, Finland would be in 3rd place with 4 points and a 0 goal difference. 

C If Ukraine and Austria draw (very likely), Austria would be in 3rd place with 4 points and a 0 goal difference. 

See where I'm going with this? Please someone tell me I'm wrong. 

There are many possible scenarios.

You have not factored in Group E which has the possibility of a team finishing on less than 4 points in third. I'd say it is stretching it a bit to see Switzerland (scored one goal in two games) notching up three goals against Turkey. I cannot see Finland getting a point off Belgium either meaning third placed team in that group would end up on three points. As for Ukraine and Austria stroking it around to play for a draw well they may but its still no guarantee (depending on how other results go as we are discussing here) that four points get them through on level goal difference.

Edited by Caledonian Craig
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