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29 minutes ago, Malcolm said:

We better hope the draw is kind to us.  If we draw any of the big tv teams like Italy or Spain we won’t be going.  FIFA will ensure that this is the case. Expect a refereeing performance akin to Italy 2007.

Probably best to worry about that if we actually make the playoffs. 

All the big guns are winning their groups at the moment though so hopefully that continues.

FIFA would need to bribe the VAR guys as well so we might be ok anyway. 😂

Edited by Texas Pete
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Correct me if I’m wrong, but since every team plays each other twice and we are in a group of 6 surely that gives us a much bigger advantage at getting seeded 2nd place in the group, whereas in the groups of 5 there is 6 less total points to be picked up? Surely all teams in the groups of 6 are going to get the seeded places purely based on this with one team coming from the group of 5?

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12 minutes ago, Jamessm238 said:

Correct me if I’m wrong, but since every team plays each other twice and we are in a group of 6 surely that gives us a much bigger advantage at getting seeded 2nd place in the group, whereas in the groups of 5 there is 6 less total points to be picked up? Surely all teams in the groups of 6 are going to get the seeded places purely based on this with one team coming from the group of 5?

Results and goals against the bottom teams  in groups of 6 aren’t counted. 

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I remember that we were quite pleased with this group and missed a lot of the big guns so it is likely that the play-offs will l be really tough. If we can keep this momentum going though and get another 9 points then we can be in a good place for whoever we meet. Got to get past Israel first though.

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  • 5 weeks later...

Some decent results last night with Iceland drawing with Armenia and Romania losing which means that group, along with Ukraine’s group, will be one of the 4 with the lowest 2nd place finisher. Wales’ group looks like it’ll be in the mix for that as well.

Obviously there will still be twists and turns and this is all irrelevant if we fail to win tonight and against the Faroes or Moldova but it’s something to aim at.

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37 minutes ago, JandC said:

Some decent results last night with Iceland drawing with Armenia and Romania losing which means that group, along with Ukraine’s group, will be one of the 4 with the lowest 2nd place finisher. Wales’ group looks like it’ll be in the mix for that as well.

Obviously there will still be twists and turns and this is all irrelevant if we fail to win tonight and against the Faroes or Moldova but it’s something to aim at.

Aye it's good fun to look ahead and work out the "what ifs" and possible permutations. As you say, the main thing is to beat Israel tonight then take it from there. But IF we can do that, and go on to win the next two games after that (another two big IFs), then we are looking good to be seeded. 

Then my negativity sets in again. 😂 Even if we do all that and get seeded, either Wales of Czech Rep are going to need to use their Nations League playoff spot. We are bound to get drawn against them and I don't fancy our chances against either of them. 😂 

Then again we might get Austria or Finland?

 

 

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Main thing is to try to get 2nd and also be at home for SF stage, I assume that means something like 3 wins and draw v Denmark which is possible if not probable.

Was watching football focus earlier and just feels inevitable to me it's going to be Wales-Scotland meeting as seems Wales have more chance of being seeded and seems because of their nations league placing they're pretty much sure to get in even if they don't finish 2nd in their group.

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It’s the top 6 x 2nd place teams against the bottom 4 x 2nd place and the 2 x Nations League qualifiers so if Wales or the Czechs do qualify for that route then they’ll be away against one of the top 6 2nd place finishers.

Its not the draw I’d like but at least it would be at Hampden if we do play them

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1 hour ago, tjm007 said:

We must be in a better position now for home seed.

What other results are interesting tonight ?

We are in a 6 team group so we lose our results against Moldova. Which is good as we only scored one, while we hit 4 against the Faroes.

So we are on 11 points with a 4 goal difference. 

 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_FIFA_World_Cup_qualification_–_UEFA_Second_Round

 

if you go to qualified teams, you'll see the table before the recent round of fixtures.  It will probably be updated tonight or tomorrow.

 

 

Edited by Blantyre_Braveheart
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2 hours ago, tjm007 said:

We must be in a better position now for home seed.

What other results are interesting tonight ?

It's really tight and we'd need a good few results to go our way to be seeded. Was calculated recently that we've got around an 18% chance of being seeded at the moment. If we win our last 3, however that changes and it looks really likely we'd be seeded. If we don't beat Denmark but win the other two we'll probably either scrape through as the last seed or just miss out. Goal Difference against the Faroes is actually quite a big deal now.

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11 minutes ago, TartanSpice said:

It's really tight and we'd need a good few results to go our way to be seeded. Was calculated recently that we've got around an 18% chance of being seeded at the moment. If we win our last 3, however that changes and it looks really likely we'd be seeded. If we don't beat Denmark but win the other two we'll probably either scrape through as the last seed or just miss out. Goal Difference against the Faroes is actually quite a big 

 

Edited by todd
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28 minutes ago, TartanSpice said:

It's really tight and we'd need a good few results to go our way to be seeded. Was calculated recently that we've got around an 18% chance of being seeded at the moment. If we win our last 3, however that changes and it looks really likely we'd be seeded. If we don't beat Denmark but win the other two we'll probably either scrape through as the last seed or just miss out. Goal Difference against the Faroes is actually quite a big deal now.

Little more info. Supposing we beat the Faroes and Moldova and lose to Denmark. Thus finishing on 14pts for the purposes of the play-offs (deducting results against the 6th place team).

Group A - Portugal and Serbia will finish on more than 14pts (likely 17+)
Group B - Spain and Sweden will finish on more than 14pts (likely 16+)
Group C - Italy and Switzerland will finish on more than 14pts (likely 17+)
Group D - Ukraine/Bosnia to play each other twice a draw in either game means neither can finish above 14pts
Group E - Czech and Wales fighting for 2nd, if Belgium beat Wales, neither can finish above 14pts
Group F - Scotland
Group G - Norway and Turkey both likely to finish on at least 14pts unless points are dropped to Montenegro
Group H - Croatia and Russia will almost certain finish above 14pts (likely 16+)
Group I - Poland or Albania to finish 2nd on more than 14th points (likely 15+)
Group J - 2nd place likely to be under 14pts unless another North Macedonia beating Germany result happens

With the projection and us on 14 points we'd likely be the 7th ranked team with only 6 places being seeded. It's all guesswork though and results are never as straightforward as going to the rankings, shows that it will be tough to get a seeding though. We still might well need something off Denmark in the final game for a seeded spot.

Eyes on groups D, E, G and J for the right results, and hope that we do what we need to do, including putting as many past the Faroes as we can to boost the GD incase it's needed as there's a reasonable chance there will be a bunch of 2nd placed teams on 14 points and it'll come down to GD.

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4 minutes ago, TartanSpice said:

Little more info. Supposing we beat the Faroes and Moldova and lose to Denmark. Thus finishing on 14pts for the purposes of the play-offs (deducting results against the 6th place team).

Group A - Portugal and Serbia will finish on more than 14pts (likely 17+)
Group B - Spain and Sweden will finish on more than 14pts (likely 16+)
Group C - Italy and Switzerland will finish on more than 14pts (likely 17+)
Group D - Ukraine/Bosnia to play each other twice a draw in either game means neither can finish above 14pts
Group E - Czech and Wales fighting for 2nd, if Belgium beat Wales, neither can finish above 14pts
Group F - Scotland
Group G - Norway and Turkey both likely to finish on at least 14pts unless points are dropped to Montenegro
Group H - Croatia and Russia will almost certain finish above 14pts (likely 16+)
Group I - Poland or Albania to finish 2nd on more than 14th points (likely 15+)
Group J - 2nd place likely to be under 14pts unless another North Macedonia beating Germany result happens

With the projection and us on 14 points we'd likely be the 7th ranked team with only 6 places being seeded. It's all guesswork though and results are never as straightforward as going to the rankings, shows that it will be tough to get a seeding though. We still might well need something off Denmark in the final game for a seeded spot.

Eyes on groups D, E, G and J for the right results, and hope that we do what we need to do, including putting as many past the Faroes as we can to boost the GD incase it's needed as there's a reasonable chance there will be a bunch of 2nd placed teams on 14 points and it'll come down to GD.

I think we could just squeeze in with a draw against Denmark but even then it would be incredibly tight and we'd need a couple of results in our favour

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Albania got a decent chance of knocking Poland out for 2nd spot in England's group. Beat them at home on Tuesday and they'll be 4 points ahead with 2 games to play so pretty much done.

I assume that will impact on things as Poland still high in the world rankings so would be pretty certain seeds while Albania obviously wouldn't be (and are far more beatable).

Typing all this not having a clue if Poles have a backdoor route already through nations league.

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Tartan Chris - FIFA rankings don’t have any bearing on the seedings for the play-offs. It’s basically the top 6 2nd place sides with the most points from the group games who will be at home against the bottom 4 2nd placed teams plus the 2 highest Nations League qualifiers.

We need at least 2 wins from 3 to have any chance of being seeded. A draw against Denmark could tip things in our favour but we could also do with a few draws in the other groups to help us out.

 

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6 minutes ago, JandC said:

Tartan Chris - FIFA rankings don’t have any bearing on the seedings for the play-offs. It’s basically the top 6 2nd place sides with the most points from the group games who will be at home against the bottom 4 2nd placed teams plus the 2 highest Nations League qualifiers.

We need at least 2 wins from 3 to have any chance of being seeded. A draw against Denmark could tip things in our favour but we could also do with a few draws in the other groups to help us out.

 

Fair enough!

Would take Albania home or away in potential SF anyway, probably "weakest" side left who can realistically make it.

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8 hours ago, JandC said:

It’s the top 6 x 2nd place teams against the bottom 4 x 2nd place and the 2 x Nations League qualifiers so if Wales or the Czechs do qualify for that route then they’ll be away against one of the top 6 2nd place finishers.

Its not the draw I’d like but at least it would be at Hampden if we do play them

I’d probably wait until we actually qualify for the playoffs before worrying about it.  

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Draws in Belarus v Czech Rep, Estonia v Wales, Latvia v Turkey, Norway v Montenegro, Slovenia v Russia, and Germany making sure to not lose to North Macedonia on Monday, then a Ukraine v Bosnia draw and an Albania win v Poland on Tuesday would be chefs kiss. Throw in a nice wee 5-0 against the Faroes and it would be as good as possible going into November.

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Think its worth bearing in mind that Denmark could qualify for the world cup on Tuesday and therefore could choose to play fringe players in their last 2 games which are Faroes (h) then us at Hampden especially with many of their players having important games in Europe for their clubs. 

Worst case any players with any slight niggles or issues wont play. 

 

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29 minutes ago, Templeton_Peck said:

Think its worth bearing in mind that Denmark could qualify for the world cup on Tuesday and therefore could choose to play fringe players in their last 2 games which are Faroes (h) then us at Hampden especially with many of their players having important games in Europe for their clubs. 

Worst case any players with any slight niggles or issues wont play. 

 

This is true, means we have a chance of a draw against Denmark. 

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5 hours ago, Templeton_Peck said:

Think its worth bearing in mind that Denmark could qualify for the world cup on Tuesday and therefore could choose to play fringe players in their last 2 games which are Faroes (h) then us at Hampden especially with many of their players having important games in Europe for their clubs. 

Worst case any players with any slight niggles or issues wont play. 

 

You're not wrong, but Denmark have not just won every game, they haven't even conceded a goal. Has any team ever gone a full qualifying campaign with that happening? If they still have that record going into our game, it might give them a bit of incentive to avoid defeat, at least.

Fingers crossed it's a dead rubber for both and we are already seeded 2nd place.

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