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Toepoke

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But even if unlikely we win still might not be enough.

wales have more belief than us in that they do believe their standing is way more than it is, in getting results against sides better than them.

still think we struggle to shake off the free hit mentality 

i suppose Belgium and Denmark have nothing at stake , so it’s better wales result i suppose but more games tomorrow of course 

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13 minutes ago, DAVIDB46 said:

But even if unlikely we win still might not be enough.

wales have more belief than us in that they do believe their standing is way more than it is, in getting results against sides better than them.

still think we struggle to shake off the free hit mentality 

i suppose Belgium and Denmark have nothing at stake , so it’s better wales result i suppose but more games tomorrow of course 

A win gets us seeded 100%.

Need 4 teams to finish below us, and a win means that there would be 5 groups below us guaranteed.

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We've been knocked down to unseeded after Wales gubbed Belarus. Same Goal Difference but they are ahead in Goals For.

We now definitively need something from the Denmark game or we are barring a miracle all but unseeded.

Its going to be incredibly difficult Denmark have only just conceded their first goal in qualifying and are going for a 100% record.

Hopefully we have a full and rocking Hampden, that helps the lads.

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A point v Denmark will do us if at least 3 of the following happen,

Finland to fail to beat France by 3 or more.

Turkey to fail to beat Montenegro (away) by 4 or more.

Spain to beat Sweden by 3 or more. Or by 2 if we score more than Sweden.

Poland to lose to Hungary at home.

Croatia lose to Russia at home.

Belgium to beat Wales. Or draw if they score 2 less than us.

 

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4 minutes ago, bdgsct said:

A point v Denmark will do us if at least 3 of the following happen,

Finland to fail to beat France by 3 or more.

Turkey to fail to beat Montenegro (away) by 4 or more.

Spain to beat Sweden by 3 or more. Or by 2 if we score more than Sweden.

Poland to lose to Hungary at home.

Croatia lose to Russia at home.

Belgium to beat Wales. Or draw if they score 2 less than us.

 

Finland can only finish on 14 with a win, so it's down to 2 scenarios from the remaining 5. It's all going our way already. 😂

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I’ve been watching the Play Off scenario developing since the September fixtures and who could be seeded or not.

Interestingly 4 of the 6 seeds will likely come from the 5 smaller sections ( Five team sections where you don’t drop your score against the bottom team)  I think there has to have been a bit advantage in playing 8 games not 10 from the rest days and bookings position.

As for the remaining fixtures, I think we are capable of getting a better result against Denmark than Wales against Belgium. I’d still play our strongest side including players on one booking, some will get booked and miss the Semi, but that’s fitba, thats the chance we need to take if we hope to get a result and be seeded. I think it will be a great night and we’ll move back into a seeded place pending what happens on Tuesday

 

 

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1 hour ago, Caledonian Craig said:

Remember that Wales goal difference could take a hit in their last match against Belgium.

If Belgium win in Cardiff there's every chance the Czechs will overtake Wales though.

 

 

Edited by Toepoke
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11 hours ago, bdgsct said:

A point v Denmark will do us if at least 3 of the following happen,

Finland to fail to beat France by 3 or more.

Turkey to fail to beat Montenegro (away) by 4 or more.

Spain to beat Sweden by 3 or more. Or by 2 if we score more than Sweden.

Poland to lose to Hungary at home.

Croatia lose to Russia at home.

Belgium to beat Wales. Or draw if they score 2 less than us.

 

Well I cannot see Turkey stuffing (sorry) Montenegro 4-0 away. Montenegro got a very creditable 2-2 draw last night at home to Netherlands so they'll be in good spirits.

A 3-0 win for Spain and a nil nil draw for us would be enough but this Spanish side have only scored more than two goals in games against the group's whipping boys plus the Swedish defence is its strength so that scenario does not look likely.

Croatia losing at home to Russia is possible but again, unlikely. Croatia are a strong home side and Russia's only defeat was on their trip to Slovenia.

I cannot see Hungary winning in Poland. It is possible but highly unlikely.

Belgium to beat Wales is highly possible given that Bale is not likely to be fit and Ampadu is suspended. Although it depends on the Belgians' mindset.

Fuck it lets just beat Denmark. 👍

 

Edited by Caledonian Craig
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Here's an interesting one. If we draw 0-0 and Spain beat Sweden 2-0 we would be level on points with Sweden, on the same GD and same goals scored. We could then miss out on a seeded place based on less "goals scored away from home". 

I'm certain that has never happened before. 🤣

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Denmark’s 100% record and one goal conceded has a lot of people running scared but our group is not the strongest. You could probably argue that’s it’s the weakest as Austria have been poor and are nowhere near as good as most other pot 2 teams. 

Denmark also needed an 85th minute winner to beat the Faroes away so they are not invincible. 

The fact they are playing for a 100% record may also work in our favour. If they had already dropped a couple of points they would have absolutely no pressure on them tomorrow night and could relax. Could work the other way of course but we’ll see what happens. 

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2 hours ago, Orraloon said:

Here's an interesting one. If we draw 0-0 and Spain beat Sweden 2-0 we would be level on points with Sweden, on the same GD and same goals scored. We could then miss out on a seeded place based on less "goals scored away from home". 

I'm certain that has never happened before. 🤣

The crazy irony of that would be Sweden could have a negative away goal difference of -2. 4 For 6 Against.

We are level away from home on counting matches 3 For 3 Against

If they are going to the length of away goals to decide things it should be the difference first before the goals scored.

Edited by Stockholm 1980
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I think it’s fairly obvious we did get a very generous draw. I always remember Northern Ireland’s euro 2016 group, they lucked out tremendously drawing teams in heavy decline and no big hitters. Romania who came 2nd managed to draw 5 times for example.Any other group they would never have qualified. So you just have to appreciate what your given. If we take something of Denmark it will be the icing on the cake.

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Those two away wins to Austria and Moldova have convinced me that we might have turned a corner and we could be heading back to being as good as we once were a couple of decades ago. Those are the sort of results that we have failed to get this century. Ok we have had a couple of great results but they ultimately didn't matter. 

We now need to start winning our home games again. If we want to be regularly challenging for qualification we need to be beating teams like Denmark at Hampden. As we look back on this campaign the worst result by far was dropping points at home to Austria. 

The best bit for me is that two of our best players are under 21. The rest of the squad isn't that old either. It's looking promising but we are always just a couple of bad results away from being shit again. 😂

A win or draw against Denmark and I'll be totally convinced this squad are going places.

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10 minutes ago, Stockholm 1980 said:

The crazy irony of that would be Sweden could have a negative away goal difference of -2. 4 For 6 Against.

We are level away from home on counting matches 3 For 3 Against

If they are going to the length of away goals to decide things it should be the difference first before the goals scored.

I agree, let's start a campaign to get that rule changed just in case it happens. We need to be quick though. 😂

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