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Nations League top spot watch for WC 2022


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Just coming back to this theme on other threads the defeat yesterday is not as bad as it first looked

In A groups the winners will be 

Italy/ Netherlands      Belgium / Denmark     France      Germany / Spain

Think we can be assured that all of these countries will finish in first or second place in the WC qualifiers ( maybe not Denmark depending on the draw ) 

then in the B section looks like ( in order of probable points

Wales can get 16 points, but lose to Finland and Finland get 15. we cannot get more points than the winner of this group.

Austria can get 15 points if they beat Norway at home on Wednesday, assuming Norway play the match. Norway can also get 15 points but no idea what is happening with their postponed match.

Then Scotland can get 13 points if we win in Israel, if we don't then no point in this thread and should be deleted.

In the other group Russia or Hungary can only get 11 points if they both win their last match.

So that leaves us ( assuming that the A group winners qualify) with possibly one of wales or Austria to qualify automatically ( even for play off ) 

Intriguingly, if we draw a NL group A winner and either Wales or Austria in WC qualifying then as long as they finish 1/2 then we will get a play off spot anyway.

Or we can just qualify the conventional way. 

 

 

 

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We have improved immensely under Clarke in terms of organisation but you can’t turn a squad of players with limited ability into world beaters so we are always going to have our limitations.  I d

Assuming it stays in it's current format the best thing to do is to yo yo between League A and B. Be in A to get Euro play off and then B to have a chance of a world cup play off. You also have a

That's exactly it, and we need the timing to be right. Which is why it's so important that we beat Israel. We need to get promoted this time so that we get a playoff spot for EURO2024, then if we get

6 minutes ago, Burj_Alba said:

 lntriguingly, if we draw a NL group A winner and either Wales or Austria in WC qualifying then as long as they finish 1/2 then we will get a play off spot anyway.

We were discussing this yesterday, it does introduce the opportunity for a carve up where a team can deliberately lose a game to guarantee a play off.

If UEFA have sussed this then they could get round it by making sure the first 10 NL group winners are kept apart in the draw.

This would be a potential benefit to us as some hard teams would be ruled out of our World Cup group. 

It's all immaterial if we don't get the job done on Wednesday though.

 

 

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20 minutes ago, Burj_Alba said:

Just coming back to this theme on other threads the defeat yesterday is not as bad as it first looked

In A groups the winners will be 

Italy/ Netherlands      Belgium / Denmark     France      Germany / Spain

Think we can be assured that all of these countries will finish in first or second place in the WC qualifiers ( maybe not Denmark depending on the draw ) 

then in the B section looks like ( in order of probable points

Wales can get 16 points, but lose to Finland and Finland get 15. we cannot get more points than the winner of this group.

Austria can get 15 points if they beat Norway at home on Wednesday, assuming Norway play the match. Norway can also get 15 points but no idea what is happening with their postponed match.

Then Scotland can get 13 points if we win in Israel, if we don't then no point in this thread and should be deleted.

In the other group Russia or Hungary can only get 11 points if they both win their last match.

So that leaves us ( assuming that the A group winners qualify) with possibly one of wales or Austria to qualify automatically ( even for play off ) 

Intriguingly, if we draw a NL group A winner and either Wales or Austria in WC qualifying then as long as they finish 1/2 then we will get a play off spot anyway.

Or we can just qualify the conventional way. 

 

 

 

Sounds like quite a decent chance we might get the play off spot if we beat israel but to be honest I don't really know the ins and outs so I might be totally wrong. 

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38 minutes ago, Toepoke said:

We were discussing this yesterday, it does introduce the opportunity for a carve up where a team can deliberately lose a game to guarantee a play off.

If UEFA have sussed this then they could get round it by making sure the first 10 NL group winners are kept apart in the draw.

This would be a potential benefit to us as some hard teams would be ruled out of our World Cup group. 

It's all immaterial if we don't get the job done on Wednesday though.

 

 

I think they'll have to do this to avoid this situation. 

Although I would have quite liked Wales or Austria as a pot 2 team! Avoiding Belgium, Germany, France would be good though. 

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I am enjoying the Nations League. Why wouldn't we when it has been so good to us. However, it does seem that, strategically, we are better off staying in sections like we have this time around. It enables us to build confidence, put a run together and top tables giving us play-off chances. Promotion though could see us dumped in groups where we could get hammered, confidence knocked and loss of momentum. Tough one.

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I actually thought about this with Slovakia yesterday. Might be better if they went down so in Group D for the next Euros and do a North Macedonia. ( strongest team there) But then saw that Serbia will get relegated as well and we know how good they are in play offs. 🤣

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Worth pointing out that if we did get a play off place through this route it would start with a one off away game against a decent team with (probably) a big partisan crowd. (And if you did get through that it's a 50/50 chance you'll be away again in the final).

Quite a tall order then. So in as much as this would be a nice bonus card to play, missing out would not be a disaster to me.

 

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3 minutes ago, Toepoke said:

Worth pointing out that if we did get a play off place through this route it would start with a one off away game against a decent team with (probably) a big partisan crowd. (And if you did get through that it's a 50/50 chance you'll be away again in the final).

Quite a tall order then. So in as much as this would be a nice bonus card to play, missing out would not be a disaster to me.

 

Well it would be a disaster if we blow our chance in the actual qualifying campaign especially considering where we stood in this group a few days ago but I do see where you are coming from. I have growing confidence that we can seal top two in our qualifying group in any case.

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10 minutes ago, Caledonian Craig said:

Well it would be a disaster if we blow our chance in the actual qualifying campaign especially considering where we stood in this group a few days ago but I do see where you are coming from. I have growing confidence that we can seal top two in our qualifying group in any case.

so do I, there is not a lot of difference between second and third ranked teams at the moment ( are Austria or Wales really better than a full strength Czech side ) , are Serbia better than us? 

But nice little insurance policy in place, just in case.

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All we can do is (hopefully) win in Israel and do our best to finish in the top 2 of our qualifying group next year. 

If we don’t reach the playoffs through our qualifying group then we may have an outside chance of the playoffs depending on whether Wales/Finland or Austria finish at least second in their qualifying groups.

Nothing is guaranteed this time which may actually be a good thing. We should just forget all about the possibility of getting a playoff spot via the Nations League and concentrate on the qualifiers. If we come up short then we may get lucky depending on how other teams get on. 

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3 hours ago, Caledonian Craig said:

I am enjoying the Nations League. Why wouldn't we when it has been so good to us. However, it does seem that, strategically, we are better off staying in sections like we have this time around. It enables us to build confidence, put a run together and top tables giving us play-off chances. Promotion though could see us dumped in groups where we could get hammered, confidence knocked and loss of momentum. Tough one.

That's what's happened to Iceland. Overachieved last 4 years so get placed in group A and barely get a point.

But then going down to B or C as happening to Northern Ireland means you can build yourself up again and be in good position for next euros to get play off spot just by winning a group C section against mediocre opponents.

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Had thought about this ever since Nations league started.

Are you better off not getting promoted so you have a better chance of a play-off

OR

Are you better off getting promoted so you challenge yourself to improve by regularly playing a better standard of team (might be a few humpings along the way). This way you’re in better shape for the actual qualifiers. Do good results against better teams not help your ranking more as well?

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39 minutes ago, Texas Pete said:

All we can do is (hopefully) win in Israel and do our best to finish in the top 2 of our qualifying group next year. 

If we don’t reach the playoffs through our qualifying group then we may have an outside chance of the playoffs depending on whether Wales/Finland or Austria finish at least second in their qualifying groups.

Nothing is guaranteed this time which may actually be a good thing. We should just forget all about the possibility of getting a playoff spot via the Nations League and concentrate on the qualifiers. If we come up short then we may get lucky depending on how other teams get on. 

What a daft thing to say. If we beat Israel we win the group and have a chance of a playoff spot. The chance of a playoff spot should be an extra incentive for the team. If they were to forget about getting a playoff spot you are effectively saying forget about trying to beat Israel. I hope Steve Clarke and the players don't have your mentality. 

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Assuming it stays in it's current format the best thing to do is to yo yo between League A and B.

Be in A to get Euro play off and then B to have a chance of a world cup play off. You also have a better chance of moving to a pot two seeding even if you lose most of your games in league A. I would think you pick up a lot more points for a draw with England than you do for beating Albania and lose less getting beat by Spain than you would losing to Slovakia.

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3 minutes ago, ceudmilefailte said:

Assuming it stays in it's current format the best thing to do is to yo yo between League A and B.

Be in A to get Euro play off and then B to have a chance of a world cup play off. 

 

That's exactly it, and we need the timing to be right. Which is why it's so important that we beat Israel. We need to get promoted this time so that we get a playoff spot for EURO2024, then if we get relegated again it makes it easier to get a playoff spot for the next WC. That's if they don't change the criteria in the meantime, which is very possible. But we just need to make the most of the rules as they stand at present. 

We must beat Israel otherwise we are moving backwards again.

 

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28 minutes ago, Orraloon said:

What a daft thing to say. If we beat Israel we win the group and have a chance of a playoff spot. The chance of a playoff spot should be an extra incentive for the team. If they were to forget about getting a playoff spot you are effectively saying forget about trying to beat Israel. I hope Steve Clarke and the players don't have your mentality. 

You’ve obviously misunderstood. 

I don’t mean forget about trying to get a playoff. I mean if we beat Israel we should assume we aren’t going to get a playoff via the Nations League and just concentrate on the qualifiers. If we don’t finish in the top 2 in our group and end up getting a playoff via the Nations League then great.

Thanks for rushing to judgment and calling me daft though. 

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1 minute ago, Texas Pete said:

You’ve obviously misunderstood. 

I don’t mean forget about trying to get a playoff. I mean if we beat Israel we should assume we aren’t going to get a playoff via the Nations League and just concentrate on the qualifiers. If we don’t finish in the top 2 in our group and end up getting a playoff via the Nations League then great.

Thanks for rushing to judgment and calling me daft though. 

I didn't say you were daft. I said you said a daft thing which we all do sometimes. Maybe you just wrote in a daft way? ;)

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3 minutes ago, Orraloon said:

I didn't say you were daft. I said you said a daft thing which we all do sometimes. Maybe you just wrote in a daft way? ;)

Possibly. It’s also possible you just misunderstood what I meant. 

If you look at the last part of my post in isolation then it may appear daft but if you consider it within the context of my whole post then I think it makes sense.

Either way what I meant was even if we beat Israel we won’t know if that will be good enough for a playoff so we should just forget about it (after the Israel match) and concentrate on the qualifiers. If we end up getting to the playoffs via the Nations League then great (although getting there through the qualifiers would be better). 

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45 minutes ago, Orraloon said:

If they use the same system next time round as they did for 2020/21 then every team in League A will get at least a playoff spot for EURO 2024. That's one of the reasons it's important to get into League A.

Yeah it’s a bit odd but we’re better being in League B in the run up to a World Cup and League A in the run up to the Euros. 

There’s a far better chance of securing a World Cup playoff place in league B than League A. 

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Its better to go up, even though we are not a top tier European team, for the reason that based on our nations league placement A at best, B at worst, it pretty much gets us a play off spot for EURO 2024, playing against top tier games is good in theory but if we played Belgium and France - I cant see us getting anything from those 4 games and if the fixtures were like we had with Belgium and Russia - it has you in a precarious mental state.  Now, I would take Scotland 2020 into those 4 games and hazard that we would fair better than losing 4 games, scoring once and letting in 13 goals - ouch just looking at that shows how far we have came since last October. 

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26 minutes ago, romanticscot said:

Its better to go up, even though we are not a top tier European team, for the reason that based on our nations league placement A at best, B at worst, it pretty much gets us a play off spot for EURO 2024, playing against top tier games is good in theory but if we played Belgium and France - I cant see us getting anything from those 4 games and if the fixtures were like we had with Belgium and Russia - it has you in a precarious mental state.  Now, I would take Scotland 2020 into those 4 games and hazard that we would fair better than losing 4 games, scoring once and letting in 13 goals - ouch just looking at that shows how far we have came since last October. 

I'm still not totally convinced that we have improved that much. We have had a win and a defeat to Slovakia, both close games. I don't think this Slovakia team is nearly as good as the one we played a few years ago. Two great results against Czech Rep but we were getting pummeled for large spells in both games.

We have had two goes at trying to beat Israel at Hampden and failed to do it. We've got another chance to beat them on Wednesday. If we manage to do that and win promotion then I will think that is an improvement. But if we don't, then I'm not sure we have shown ourselves to be any better than when McLeish got sacked.

We have qualified for the euros but we might have done that under McLeish. Clarke has taken us to the Euros without actually winning a game.

This next game is huge for us.

 

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Yes, the next game is massive for sure.  I see progression from a year ago, since lockdown we have become hard to breakdown, sorting out our defensive strategy, I was pretty vocal that even though we had results going our way I had not seen a great end to end performance from us, but against Serbia I saw that, at the weekend we played better against a very strong team who had a well organized midfield.  Take our defensive play since October this year and put that against Russia and Belgium - we would not ship 13 goals in 4 games I am pretty certain of that.  

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24 minutes ago, Orraloon said:

I'm still not totally convinced that we have improved that much. We have had a win and a defeat to Slovakia, both close games. I don't think this Slovakia team is nearly as good as the one we played a few years ago. Two great results against Czech Rep but we were getting pummeled for large spells in both games.

We have had two goes at trying to beat Israel at Hampden and failed to do it. We've got another chance to beat them on Wednesday. If we manage to do that and win promotion then I will think that is an improvement. But if we don't, then I'm not sure we have shown ourselves to be any better than when McLeish got sacked.

We have qualified for the euros but we might have done that under McLeish. Clarke has taken us to the Euros without actually winning a game.

This next game is huge for us.

 

We have improved immensely under Clarke in terms of organisation but you can’t turn a squad of players with limited ability into world beaters so we are always going to have our limitations. 

I don’t think Clarke’s team would lose 3-0 in Kazakhstan for example or Labour to a 0-2 victory in San Marino but at the same time the current team aren’t going to magically start winning qualifying groups or anything like that.

Clarke has done what Craig Brown has done in the 90s and made us hard to beat. Like you say, we were under pressure from the Czechs but we didn’t crumble and but for a deflection yesterday we would probably have got a point out of the game. 

Wednesday’s game will be tough but the rewards for a win are clear. Hopefully we can do it. 

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Let's see how this goes compared with Haifa.   Three at the back there (as if you could forget) with Robertson & O'Donnell high up the park, but we'd loose possession in midfield (their half) and the ball would quickly be sent up to their wing-backs who'd stayed up field behind ours.

At Hampden I felt we were more a back 5 shape against them.

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