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2022 World Cup Qualifying


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Tomorrow is a huge game for us, and a win (or less good but still alright, a draw) would put us 4pts clear with 2 games to go.

If we can win this group, we'll be very close to getting a Playoff spot for the WC.

Our ranking should improve and should secure our status as a Pot 3 team for the qualifying draw in December.

We'll go up to Nations League A section which probably means very hard games ; but it almost guarantees a playoff if needed for the Euros too.

I'll take another sturdy, defensive sound 1-0 win tomorrow please!

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On 10/12/2020 at 10:09 AM, PASTA Mick said:

I know with the Euro 2020 play-off final next month and the 2020–21 UEFA Nations League, a lot of people haven't really starting looking towards the next World Cup but the games qualifying matches to start as early as March and the next 4 games could have a big impact on our chances.  

The draw for the WC should be done in early December.  There will be 10 groups of 5 or 6 teams.  The group winners will qualify.  The 10 runners-up, plus two group winners of the current Nations League go into play-offs for 3 places (semi-final and final like the Nations League).  That means, if we win our Nations League group, we'd be ranked 4-8th in the group winners table and we'd be hoping that all the teams ahead of us in that table finish in the top 2 of their WC qualifying group so we have a play-off place if we don't finish in the top 2.  

As it stands, we are likely be in pot 3 for the draw.  These are the pots as they stand now and these are the projected groups (and these seem to have been made with predictions of Czech Rep winning our Nations League group.  We cannot reach pot 2 but we could drop down into pot 4.  That could be the difference between having Russia or Norway from pot 3 or Albania or Luxembourg from pot 4. 

As such, I think the match against the Czech Rep is important for 4 reasons -

  1. We want to keep the momentum and unbeaten run going before we play Serbia in the final.
  2. A win will put us in a great position to win our Nations League group and promotion to League A.
  3. Winning our Nations League group will give us a great chance of earning a play-off position for the 2022 World Cup, as you would expect most of the group winners from League A (currently Italy, England, Portugal and Spain) and League B (currently Austria, Scotland, Wales and Russia) to finish in the top 2 in their WC qualifying groups.  
  4. It can help us stay in pot 3 for the WC qualifiers.  

For these reasons, beating Czech Rep on Wednesday could be HUGE for us.  

Does that all make sense? 🤣

Well done and it’s nice to be optimistic about our hopes for a change. I don’t mean you, I mean us all. 

Good post 👍🏾

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Wait, did I read correctly if we win this nations league group, we are a pot 2 team for the EURO 2024 qualification?  We are forever inching our way back.  Pot 2 would be amazing for us.  

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8 minutes ago, King Of Paisley said:

So a helluva lot riding on this one, in short.

Win tomorrow and it's all in our own hands

Pretty much.

The Serbia match is bigger in terms of what can be won from that one match, but a win tomorrow could be very rewarding in a very different way.

I'm sure the manager and team knows this. 

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1 minute ago, ceudmilefailte said:

Think I'm more excited about tonights game than I was the first Israel game. 

Israel game was one we should win but this sets us up to win a group we were unlikely to win

Me too!

I was nervous about Israel but excited about this one.  Which is usually a bad place to be as a Scotland fan. 

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12 minutes ago, PASTA Mick said:

Me too!

I was nervous about Israel but excited about this one.  Which is usually a bad place to be as a Scotland fan. 

Taking all things into account I'd not be too upset with a draw tonight. Sure I want us to win every game but this will be our third game in a few days and we came into these matches with a patched up squad which has been patched up even more since and tonight we will be without Robertson too. A draw would keep our unbeaten run going and keep us top of the table and be a decent result considering the team we will start out with tonight missing Robertson, Tierney, Armstrong, Burke, Cooper, Forrest, Christie, Palmer and Fleck.

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12 hours ago, PASTA Mick said:

Pretty much.

The Serbia match is bigger in terms of what can be won from that one match, but a win tomorrow could be very rewarding in a very different way.

I'm sure the manager and team knows this. 

Agree with this. 

To begin with i wasnt too keen on the nations league but i think its injected much needed life into the international game, especially for us. Treat this competition and not as a friendly could see us rewarded.

 

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1 hour ago, Caledonian Craig said:

Taking all things into account I'd not be too upset with a draw tonight. Sure I want us to win every game but this will be our third game in a few days and we came into these matches with a patched up squad which has been patched up even more since and tonight we will be without Robertson too. A draw would keep our unbeaten run going and keep us top of the table and be a decent result considering the team we will start out with tonight missing Robertson, Tierney, Armstrong, Burke, Cooper, Forrest, Christie, Palmer and Fleck.

Id be dissappointed with a draw

A win is a must as far as i am concerned.. a home game should always be must win at this level.

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1 hour ago, Caledonian Craig said:

Taking all things into account I'd not be too upset with a draw tonight. Sure I want us to win every game but this will be our third game in a few days and we came into these matches with a patched up squad which has been patched up even more since and tonight we will be without Robertson too. A draw would keep our unbeaten run going and keep us top of the table and be a decent result considering the team we will start out with tonight missing Robertson, Tierney, Armstrong, Burke, Cooper, Forrest, Christie, Palmer and Fleck.

I see the point you are trying to make but Czech Rep have also already played two matches this week and they have also had a lot of players ruled out of their squad for tonight. 

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As long as we play well and get a draw or even scrape a win I will be happy. Everybody seems to be super confident after scraping past Israel and beating Slovakia 1 nil. We have looked better in the last game but knowing Scotland that could all change overnight. I remember being very positive when Strachan took over and went on a run with some good results then it went downhill for a while under him before picking up again.

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4 hours ago, vanderark14 said:

Agree with this. 

To begin with i wasnt too keen on the nations league but i think its injected much needed life into the international game, especially for us. Treat this competition and not as a friendly could see us rewarded.

 

I'm starting to think that Platini came up with the idea just to give Scotland a chance of qualifying again. :lol:

 

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25 minutes ago, Orraloon said:

I'm starting to think that Platini came up with the idea just to give Scotland a chance of qualifying again. :lol:

 

Its certainly been beneficial to us, saying that we would of got a play off spot for finishing third in our group if the euros had kept the same qualifying rules. 

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6 hours ago, Caledonian Craig said:

Taking all things into account I'd not be too upset with a draw tonight. Sure I want us to win every game but this will be our third game in a few days and we came into these matches with a patched up squad which has been patched up even more since and tonight we will be without Robertson too. A draw would keep our unbeaten run going and keep us top of the table and be a decent result considering the team we will start out with tonight missing Robertson, Tierney, Armstrong, Burke, Cooper, Forrest, Christie, Palmer and Fleck.

I will be disappointed if we don’t win tonight for a few reasons. 

The Czechs are missing as many players tonight as we are, if not more. They are also a team we tend to do quite well against (if we ignore throwing away a 2 goal lead and the Levein debacle).

A win tonight would not only make us heavy favourites to win our group and get promoted into League A, we would have a good chance of a World Cup playoff. A draw tonight would mean we would likely need to win our last 2 games to stand a chance of a playoff.

It all depends on how the match goes of course. If we go 0-2 for example then a draw would be a great result. 

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42 minutes ago, Texas Pete said:

I will be disappointed if we don’t win tonight for a few reasons. 

The Czechs are missing as many players tonight as we are, if not more. They are also a team we tend to do quite well against (if we ignore throwing away a 2 goal lead and the Levein debacle).

A win tonight would not only make us heavy favourites to win our group and get promoted into League A, we would have a good chance of a World Cup playoff. A draw tonight would mean we would likely need to win our last 2 games to stand a chance of a playoff.

It all depends on how the match goes of course. If we go 0-2 for example then a draw would be a great result. 

I don't think we have ever beaten the Czech Rep in a competitive match. I can only think of one draw.

 

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On 10/12/2020 at 10:56 AM, PASTA Mick said:

I've also just ready that winning this group would ensure we are a Pot 2 team for the Euro 2024 qualifying campaign.

This match against the Czech Rep is massive for us for 3 or 4 different competitions!!  

Minimum pot 2. All the way down to the two best 3rd place teams in League A would presumably be pot 1. A lucky draw as a hypothetical League A team and you never know...

-----------------------------------------

Looking at our FIFA ranking regarding pot 2. I think we were 60 odds points away from 20th place before the September games. We're now 21pts away. Stranger things have happened.

  • Win our last 3 (not incl. penalties) and we're on 1472
  • Win our last 3 (incl. penalties) and we're on 1466
  • Win in Serbia (not incl. penalties) & 4pts from the other two and we're on 1464.

I know these results sound unrealistic but so does 8 games unbeaten with 6/7 wins.

I reckon these results could see us in pot 2 by fractions of a point:

  • Scotland win in Serbia & 4pts from Slovakia/Israel
  • Rep.Ireland max "3pts" from England or B&H friendly/Wales/Bulgaria
  • Slovakia max "3pts" from N.Ireland/Scotland/Czech
  • Iceland max "3pts" from Hungary/Denmark/England
  • N.Ireland lose vs Slovakia (or win vs Slovakia and 1pt from Austria/Romania)
  • Norway max "6pts" from Israel friendly/Romania/Austria
  • Romania max "5pts" from Bulgaria friendly(?)/Norway/N.Ireland

If someone else knows the points better than me (down to a couple of decimal places etc.) and can double check this that'd be great. Also probably worth saying getting to pot 2 isn't as important now that we're already staring the WC playoffs in the face via our NL group.

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1 hour ago, paper_lion said:

Minimum pot 2. All the way down to the two best 3rd place teams in League A would presumably be pot 1. A lucky draw as a hypothetical League A team and you never know...

-----------------------------------------

Looking at our FIFA ranking regarding pot 2. I think we were 60 odds points away from 20th place before the September games. We're now 21pts away. Stranger things have happened.

  • Win our last 3 (not incl. penalties) and we're on 1472
  • Win our last 3 (incl. penalties) and we're on 1466
  • Win in Serbia (not incl. penalties) & 4pts from the other two and we're on 1464.

I know these results sound unrealistic but so does 8 games unbeaten with 6/7 wins.

I reckon these results could see us in pot 2 by fractions of a point:

  • Scotland win in Serbia & 4pts from Slovakia/Israel
  • Rep.Ireland max "3pts" from England or B&H friendly/Wales/Bulgaria
  • Slovakia max "3pts" from N.Ireland/Scotland/Czech
  • Iceland max "3pts" from Hungary/Denmark/England
  • N.Ireland lose vs Slovakia (or win vs Slovakia and 1pt from Austria/Romania)
  • Norway max "6pts" from Israel friendly/Romania/Austria
  • Romania max "5pts" from Bulgaria friendly(?)/Norway/N.Ireland

If someone else knows the points better than me (down to a couple of decimal places etc.) and can double check this that'd be great. Also probably worth saying getting to pot 2 isn't as important now that we're already staring the WC playoffs in the face via our NL group.

The Nations League position would lock in our pot for the Euro 2024 qualifiers - win the group and it's Pot 2; anything other than being the one of the worst three last-placed teams (which isn't possible anyway now) would be Pot 3.

---

In terms of the World Rankings, it's worth remembering last year(?) FIFA changed to an ELO based system - where teams directly take points off of each other, than an unconnected accumulation of points over a set time period.

Both Serbia and Slovakia are above us in the rankings, so even drawing against them will take points off of them. Wins would take both down in points to a level where we could get above both by the end of the November rankings (especially as Serbia is a qualifier - which is worth more than a Nations League game).

Win all three and we can get 1472 points (I think we've both calculated correctly). Currently Ireland/Slovakia, who are level on points in 20th/21st, are on 1467 points; neither are on a good run of form.  Other sides above us may be more likely than those to be in Pot 2 right now:

The maximum and minimum points for everyone around us is, as well as the most likely outcome based on the current ELO ratings (worth pointing out Ireland, Romania and Norway don't have friendlies lined up for the November play-off date, but may still arrange one - which could see their figures change):

  • Pos - Team - Max - Min - Est
  • 17 - Serbia - 1514 - 1460 - 1499
  • 18 - Turkey - 1507 - 1466 - 1487
  • 19 - Russia - 1496 - 1456 - 1481
  • 20 - Ireland - 1482 - 1452 - 1467
  • 21 - Slovakia - 1493  - 1438 - 1458
  • 22 - Czech Rep - 1466 - 1426 - 1456
  • 23 - Romania - 1471 - 1440 - 1455
  • 24 - Hungary - 1468 - 1413 - 1453
  • 25 - N Ireland - 1486 - 1432 - 1452
  • 26 - Norway - 1473 - 1443 - 1450
  • 27 - Iceland - 1493 - 1438 - 1439
  • 28 - Scotland - 1472 - 1417 - 1432

So as you say, it's fractions of points that could come into play and realistically we need to win all three games to get into Pot 2 for the World Cup, but by securing top spot in the Nations League group, we'd put ourselves in a very good position to get a play-off spot via the Nations League anyway and there are beatable sides in Pot 1 and 2 regardless.

Based on current standings, the order of which sides will be taken for the play-offs via the Nations League is:

  1. Portugal [A3] - Pts 10
  2. Belgium [A2] - Pts 9
  3. Spain [A4] - Pts 7; GD +4
  4. Poland [A1] - Pts 7; GD +3
  5. Scotland [B2] - Pts 10; GD +3; GF 5
  6. Wales [B4] - Pts 10; GD +3; GF 3
  7. Austria [B1] - Pts 9; GD +2
  8. Russia [B3] - Pts 8; GD +3
  9. Slovenia [C3] - Pts 10
  10. Luxembourg [C1] - Pts 9
  11. Belarus [C4] - Pts 7
  12. Macedonia [C2] - Pts 6
  13. Faroe Is [D1] - Pts 10
  14. Gibraltar [D2] - Pts 6

You'd imagine Portugal, Belgium and Spain should qualify as group winners, or at least finish in the play-off spots anyway. Poland are probably unlikely to win their NL group, as they've got Italy and the Netherlands right behind them and have to play both, but they'll likely be play-offs (at least) anyway.

Of the League B teams, Wales, Austria and Russia are all in Pot 2 as it stands and you'd expect the latter two to finish top two in their qualifying group. Anyone who could replace those three as the NL group winners are likely to have less points than us, so we'd take priority over them. We still need to win the group though.

The World Cup qualifiers could therefore become similar to the Euro qualifiers we just had, preparation for the play-offs with the potential of finishing second with a favourable draw.

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1 hour ago, Clyde1998 said:

The Nations League position would lock in our pot for the Euro 2024 qualifiers - win the group and it's Pot 2; anything other than being the one of the worst three last-placed teams (which isn't possible anyway now) would be Pot 3.

---

In terms of the World Rankings, it's worth remembering last year(?) FIFA changed to an ELO based system - where teams directly take points off of each other, than an unconnected accumulation of points over a set time period.

Both Serbia and Slovakia are above us in the rankings, so even drawing against them will take points off of them. Wins would take both down in points to a level where we could get above both by the end of the November rankings (especially as Serbia is a qualifier - which is worth more than a Nations League game).

Win all three and we can get 1472 points (I think we've both calculated correctly). Currently Ireland/Slovakia, who are level on points in 20th/21st, are on 1467 points; neither are on a good run of form.  Other sides above us may be more likely than those to be in Pot 2 right now:

The maximum and minimum points for everyone around us is, as well as the most likely outcome based on the current ELO ratings (worth pointing out Ireland, Romania and Norway don't have friendlies lined up for the November play-off date, but may still arrange one - which could see their figures change):

  • Pos - Team - Max - Min - Est
  • 17 - Serbia - 1514 - 1460 - 1499
  • 18 - Turkey - 1507 - 1466 - 1487
  • 19 - Russia - 1496 - 1456 - 1481
  • 20 - Ireland - 1482 - 1452 - 1467
  • 21 - Slovakia - 1493  - 1438 - 1458
  • 22 - Czech Rep - 1466 - 1426 - 1456
  • 23 - Romania - 1471 - 1440 - 1455
  • 24 - Hungary - 1468 - 1413 - 1453
  • 25 - N Ireland - 1486 - 1432 - 1452
  • 26 - Norway - 1473 - 1443 - 1450
  • 27 - Iceland - 1493 - 1438 - 1439
  • 28 - Scotland - 1472 - 1417 - 1432

So as you say, it's fractions of points that could come into play and realistically we need to win all three games to get into Pot 2 for the World Cup, but by securing top spot in the Nations League group, we'd put ourselves in a very good position to get a play-off spot via the Nations League anyway and there are beatable sides in Pot 1 and 2 regardless.

Based on current standings, the order of which sides will be taken for the play-offs via the Nations League is:

  1. Portugal [A3] - Pts 10
  2. Belgium [A2] - Pts 9
  3. Spain [A4] - Pts 7; GD +4
  4. Poland [A1] - Pts 7; GD +3
  5. Scotland [B2] - Pts 10; GD +3; GF 5
  6. Wales [B4] - Pts 10; GD +3; GF 3
  7. Austria [B1] - Pts 9; GD +2
  8. Russia [B3] - Pts 8; GD +3
  9. Slovenia [C3] - Pts 10
  10. Luxembourg [C1] - Pts 9
  11. Belarus [C4] - Pts 7
  12. Macedonia [C2] - Pts 6
  13. Faroe Is [D1] - Pts 10
  14. Gibraltar [D2] - Pts 6

You'd imagine Portugal, Belgium and Spain should qualify as group winners, or at least finish in the play-off spots anyway. Poland are probably unlikely to win their NL group, as they've got Italy and the Netherlands right behind them and have to play both, but they'll likely be play-offs (at least) anyway.

Of the League B teams, Wales, Austria and Russia are all in Pot 2 as it stands and you'd expect the latter two to finish top two in their qualifying group. Anyone who could replace those three as the NL group winners are likely to have less points than us, so we'd take priority over them. We still need to win the group though.

The World Cup qualifiers could therefore become similar to the Euro qualifiers we just had, preparation for the play-offs with the potential of finishing second with a favourable draw.

I don't see how our 20-21 NL position lock us into any pot for the 2024 Euro qualifiers. Our final position in the 22-23 NL will affect the 2024 qualifiers though. That's what I meant by pot 1 for everyone up to the two best 3rd place teams i.e 1-10 in the overall ranking and pot 2 for 11-20 in the overall ranking.

All the FIFA ranking numbers are just rough calculations. I get that it's impossible to tell exactly with the constant change in the ELO rankings, I was just wondering roughly what it would take to reach pot 2.
I think wins in Serbia and Israel, with a draw in Slovakia would get us pretty close. Maybe 22-23 range is more likely where we'd end up with those results but 20th isn't out of the question imo.

I read that Norway & Israel have a friendly planned. Also that Ireland were originally scheduled to face Bosnia & Herz. in Bosnia but are considering cancelling to play England at Wembley instead. I'm assuming that the Path A playoff losers Bulgaria and Romania will be lined up to play each other too.

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8 minutes ago, paper_lion said:

I don't see how our 20-21 NL position lock us into any pot for the 2024 Euro qualifiers. Our final position in the 22-23 NL will affect the 2024 qualifiers though. That's what I meant by pot 1 for everyone up to the two best 3rd place teams i.e 1-10 in the overall ranking and pot 2 for 11-20 in the overall ranking.

All the FIFA ranking numbers are just rough calculations. I get that it's impossible to tell exactly with the constant change in the ELO rankings, I was just wondering roughly what it would take to reach pot 2.
I think wins in Serbia and Israel, with a draw in Slovakia would get us pretty close. Maybe 22-23 range is more likely where we'd end up with those results but 20th isn't out of the question imo.

I read that Norway & Israel have a friendly planned. Also that Ireland were originally scheduled to face Bosnia & Herz. in Bosnia but are considering cancelling to play England at Wembley instead. I'm assuming that the Path A playoff losers Bulgaria and Romania will be lined up to play each other too.

Sorry - that would be correct: the 2021-22 Nations League would determine the seeding for the Euro 2024 qualifiers. By being in League A, we guarantee being at least in Pot 2 (and it may be possible to get Pot 1 therefore, depending on the group we get drawn into) - as opposed to guaranteeing Pot 2 by winning the group this time.

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