Next SNP leader?

[aaid]

Just now, aaid said:

While there's no vacancy at the moment - and I suspect won't be one for some time - there's a few things people are overlooking and a lot depends on the circumstances under which the vacancy occurs.

There are basically four scenarios where Nicola Sturgeon would stand down.   She'd either decide it was time for her to do something different, she could be forced to resign because of some major scandal, or she could do the same as her predecessor and resign following the loss of another referendum.  The other possibility is that she could resign following a Holyrood election which saw the SNP lose power.

In the first three cases, presumably she would be resigning not only as SNP leader but also as FM.    That leads to the obvious conclusion that whoever becomes the next leader would also become FM and so needs to be in a position to do that. ie. they would need to be a sitting MSP - which rules out anyone - with the exception of Neil Gray, who will be standing for Holyrood in May - who is currently an MP.    It's unthinkable in these circumstances that anyone other than MSP would get on to the ballot - assuming there is actually a vote.    In terms of candidates, you'd be looking at someone who had had a level of government experience, so someone who is a cabinet secretary or at the very least has been one in the recent past.

Of course a large number of the current cabinet are standing down in May, so of those who would be likely to be around you've got.

John Swinney, in some sense the natural successor but given that he's had a taste of leadership which went badly and his personal circumstances, I'm not sure he'd be a willing replacement.   Humza Yousaf, would fancy it and has had a couple of cabinet posts under his belt but I think it might be too early for him.   Kate Forbes, way too early for her.   Fergus Ewing - don't see him getting the support.  Fiona Hyslop, a contemporary of Sturgeon's and could be presented that way but I think she's a bit too anonymous.  Michael Matheson, can't see it.   Shirley Anne Somerville, can't see it either.

There isn't anyone in the next level down who looks like an obvious candidate either, not in the medium term.

Derek McKay would've been a very strong candidate, IMHO, had things not taken the course they did and that should be considered a bullet dodged in retrospect. 

This could all change over the course of the next 5-6 years but not over the next 1-2.

The other thing is while there are undoubtedly some talented individuals in the Westminster group, elevating one of them to be FM would be akin to replacing Steve Clarke with Michael Stewart as he talks a lot of sense as a pundit - for the sake of the argument - being effective in opposition is a world of a difference from being effective in office.

Of course, the other scenario which is where Nicola Sturgeon stands down following an election loss means that a whole load of different candidates could come into the picture as that could be the opportunity for someone with a different profile and of course a lot of that would depend on where the party was at that point - presumably not in a good place.

Seems to me that in terms of current politicians, you can look at three generations in the SNP.  The older group are those politicians who predate devolution, the likes of Salmond, Neil, Cunningham and the like.   For pretty obvious reasons most of this cohort would be unlikely to be realistic prospects.   Then you have the post-devolution group, which are those politicians who would have been activists in the 80s and/or 90s but came to the fore with Holyrood and Nicola Sturgeon herself is the most obvious member of this cohort.   Then you have the post-Indyref intake.   Some, not all of these people would have been activists or party members before 2014 but they came to the fore during the campaign, a lot of these are in the Westminster 2015 and Holyrood 2016 intakes.

If its someone who will be a replacement as FM then I think you'll be looking at at someone from the post-devo group, if its in opposition, I suspect it will be a Post-Indyref candidate on a mandate of "renewing the party".

 

[glasgow jock]

18 hours ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

I always hoped mr hamilton would come back into the fold

Very (very) impressive, just needs reigned in a wee bit.

[hampden_loon2878]

When salmond was FM he was moulding sturgeon into the position, conditioning her for the role, nicola needs to do the same, start giving extra responsibility to some and see how they handle it. The day will come when she needs to step aside, If we don't get a majority at holyrood i hope the snp are still the biggest party but can not form a government Leaving a yoon coalition, that would be fun 

[thplinth]

When you look at the Alex Salmond era he established a clear successor. Nicola. 

Nicola in contrast has done the opposite. A lot of you think NS is indispensable simply because she has studiously avoided creating any successor.

[thplinth]

13 minutes ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

When salmond was FM he was moulding sturgeon into the position, conditioning her for the role, nicola needs to do the same, start giving extra responsibility to some and see how they handle it. The day will come when she needs to step aside, If we don't get a majority at holyrood i hope the snp are still the biggest party but can not form a government Leaving a yoon coalition, that would be fun 

When Sturgeon was FM... she was framing Salmond on bullshit charges,...setting him up to die in jail. 

But now you want her to anoint the new leader?!

WTF man.

[hampden_loon2878]

58 minutes ago, thplinth said:

When Sturgeon was FM... she was framing Salmond on bullshit charges,...setting him up to die in jail. 

But now you want her to anoint the new leader?!

WTF man.

I don’t believe she tried to frame him

[Caledonian Craig]

1 hour ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

I don’t believe she tried to frame him

And why would she want to frame him exactly? Politically his career was already over and he never stated he wanted back in again. Give me a motive and I am all ears.

[Orraloon]

12 minutes ago, Caledonian Craig said:

And why would she want to frame him exactly? Politically his career was already over and he never stated he wanted back in again. Give me a motive and I am all ears.

Did you read his post?

[thplinth]

10 hours ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

I don’t believe she tried to frame him

So just her inner circle, right hand woman, right hand civil servant, her husband and CEO of the SNP but somehow magically you honestly believe NS was not involved. Astonishing. 

[hampden_loon2878]

32 minutes ago, thplinth said:

So just her inner circle, right hand woman, right hand civil servant, her husband and CEO of the SNP but somehow magically you honestly believe NS was not involved. Astonishing. 

In the tradition of going against the grain again, i believe sturgeon may well have tried to prevent the accusations coming to light or at the very least gave salmond the heads up and discussed the best way forward, she may well lose her position over it,, again i will hold my hand up and apologise If i am wrong, its just how I am reading it.

 

@Caledonian Craig murrell seems to be the driver and he has the motives to do so, the least of them being that salmond wanted him to stand down when sturgeon was elected FM

[thplinth]

You believe she tried to prevent them? Oh dear...

I guess you missed this...

Made in the First Minister’s Office 264

August 18, 2020  in Uncategorized by craig

---

The first piece of evidence came out at the Holyrood Inquiry today which I have known for the last year but had not been allowed to tell you.

The drafting of the new complaints procedure so that it could be used to fit up Alex Salmond was NOT a unionist scheme hatched in Whitehall and implemented by Leslie Evans, a UK civil servant. I have seen fellow SNP members give themselve false comfort with the idea it was Whitehall and not Nicola; I have tried gently to explain they are wrong, without ever being able to produce the evidence, although I had it.

This is the first morsel of a very great deal of evidence that is going to come out.

The adoption of a new complaints procedure that permitted retrospective complaints against former ministers was in fact cooked up between Leslie Evans and Nicola Sturgeon. LONDON ADVISED AGAINST IT. The Cabinet Office strongly advised that it would be “unwise” to allow retrospective action against ex-ministers. Nicola and Evans decided to plough ahead and implement the policy against London’s advice. They must have had a strong motive for that. Evans denied today that the policy was designed against Alex Salmond. I certainly do not believe her, and there is much more to come.

This is the evidence of Leslie Evans that confirmed this today. As I say, I had known this a long while but was not able to reveal it as I was pledged to confidence. The emails before the committee show indisputably in writing the Cabinet Office advice against the retrospective complaints policy. This is the first piece in a jigsaw, but it is a key piece. I have seen enough other pieces, too, to have no doubt at all of the final picture.

Video Player

 

 

00:00

 

01:27

 

 

I cannot tell you how desperately I wish all of this was not true. I cannot tell you how desperately I wish the plot against Alex Salmond had indeed all been made in Whitehall. I cannot tell you how much I have hated the fact that my knowledge of Nicola’s plot against Alex has alienated me from so many fellow SNP members I worked alongside during the 2014 campaign. I do hope that scales are at least beginning now to drop from some eyes.

Put this together with Nicola’s insistence there can be no Independence without a referendum, and there must be no referendum without Westminster permission and a S30 order. Put this together with Nicola’s insistence that even discussion of Independence is off the agenda until after Covid and its economic consequences are past. Put this together with the NEC blocking of Joanna Cherry – which Sturgeon and Murrell were definitely behind. Put this together, if I may, with the attempt to jail me for writing this blog.

https://www.craigmurray.org.uk/archives/2020/08/made-in-the-first-ministers-office/

All they had to do was follow the advice given and none of this would ever have happened to Salmond.

NS and Evans overruled that to specifically allow retrospective claims despite being explicitly advised against it by Westminster. If they had wanted to prevent this that was their golden opportunity. They went out of their way to do the exact opposite.

Almost immediately the accusations were made against Salmond.

They did not try to prevent, they went out their way to enable it.

I am sorry Loon but you are living in a dream world when it comes to NS.

Edited October 9, 2020 by thplinth

[thplinth]

Listen to what Murray is telling you...

"This is the evidence of Leslie Evans that confirmed this today. As I say, I had known this a long while but was not able to reveal it as I was pledged to confidence. The emails before the committee show indisputably in writing the Cabinet Office advice against the retrospective complaints policy. This is the first piece in a jigsaw, but it is a key piece. I have seen enough other pieces, too, to have no doubt at all of the final picture.

I cannot tell you how desperately I wish all of this was not true. I cannot tell you how desperately I wish the plot against Alex Salmond had indeed all been made in Whitehall. I cannot tell you how much I have hated the fact that my knowledge of Nicola’s plot against Alex has alienated me from so many fellow SNP members I worked alongside during the 2014 campaign. I do hope that scales are at least beginning now to drop from some eyes."

No doubt at all.

----------

Could the Alex Salmond messaging scandal currently rocking Holyrood spell the beginning of the end for Nicola Sturgeon?

[thplinth]

It was easier convincing rangers fans on here their club was going to go tits up than it is to convince the SNP fans that NS is at the heart of the plot to stitch up Alex Salmond and send an innocent man to jail.  The rangers fans took it better as well.  

Compared to the Rangers situation however this is an open and shut case. I feel that and I have not seen all the other damning things that people like Murray and Wings have seen. Those two have 'no doubts at all'. None.

It really demonstrates that saying... there are none so blind as those who will not see.

[Duncan Blackheart]

Succession planning in the snp has been poor. They’ve had a chance, daily, to introduce “new” faces to the public on prime time tv and see how they get on both personally and with the public. However, all that air time and experience has been gambled on one chip.

 

Wouldn’t surprise me if they bet all their chips should they get a thumping Holyrood victory. They get the section 30 and Sturgeon steps down to lead the yes vote (and take on Davidson) while someone else leads the party for the rest of the term. Even if Yes wins, it could well be the last term the SNP serve in government. (What happens to them after a referendum win anyway - do we know? That’s the sort of stuff people want a definitive answer on. That and currency).
 

yours,

 

J Curtice.

[aaid]

18 hours ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

When salmond was FM he was moulding sturgeon into the position, conditioning her for the role, 

While not wanting to deny or downplay the impact that Salmond had on Sturgeon - she freely admits that and describes him as a mentor - I think you're stretching it a bit there.

Lets not forget that when John Swinney stood down, Nicola Sturgeon had already announced her candidacy and that only changed when Salmond decided belatedly to stand.    I suspect that they both felt that each of their chances would be better served by joining forces, which is also what happened.   Also, because Salmond was an MP, it was Sturgeon who for the first three years was group leader in Holyrood and who would be taking the lead in the chamber.     When the SNP took power in 2007, she also took on Health - which was - and possibly still is - probably the biggest and most important portfolio in government and held that for 5 years.    So while there's no doubting that Salmond was the leader and Sturgeon was the deputy, I think it was more of a double act than some sort of master and apprentice role.

[ParisInAKilt]

Mhairi Black ..

[aaid]

3 hours ago, Duncan Blackheart said:

Succession planning in the snp has been poor. They’ve had a chance, daily, to introduce “new” faces to the public on prime time tv and see how they get on both personally and with the public. However, all that air time and experience has been gambled on one chip.

I think that's a little bit unfair, there's a lot more to succession planning than public exposure and for a party of government having experience across a number of portfolios at cabinet level is probably more important albeit perhaps less obvious.   

I'd highlight three politicians that - to me - look like they have been being groomed - although in one case that's a very awkward description - so that they can take over, who would all be from the "generation" that would follow the FM.

Derek McKay - that's the awkward one, obvs - 43, 2011 intake having had senior positions in local government, was quickly elevated - by Salmond to a junior ministerial role , then moved into Transport in 2014 by Nicola Sturgeon, Finance Secretary in 2016 and then that role widened to include the Economy as a result of the transfer of powers under the Smith Commission.

Aileen Campbell -40, 2007 intake, Junior minister for local government under Salmond from 2011, then Children and Young People under both Salmond and Sturgeon, then Public Health and Sport and Cabinet Secretary for Communities and Local Government from 2018.  Has always struck me as being quietly efficient but doesn't have a high profile.   Unfortunately she's standing down in May.

Humza Yousaf  - 35, 2011 intake.  worked initially as a "bagman" for Salmond, then given a junior ministerial role for Europe and ID, then Transport under Sturgeon and then Cabinet Secretary for Justice.   Obviously he's the only one of these three left standing, but for one well documented "error of judgement" and - what seems to be - a personal decision to stand down, you would have been reasonably well served.

Mark McDonald was another one who seemed to be coming through the ranks but we know what happened to him.   

From the 2016 intake, Jeane Freeman is a pretty obvious example - from SPAD to Jack McConnell to SNP Health minister - but she's an exception as well as being exceptional.   

However, you can see Ivan McKee, Ash Denham, Maree Todd, Claire Haughey and Jenny Gilruth all having junior ministerial positions and Gillian Martin would have had similar but for being grassed up by the Twitter police.   Of course, there is also Kate Forbes, who has had an accelerated promotion due to the Derek McKay scandal and it's timing but so far hasn't shown herself to be out of her depth.

So, to me it looks like the party is doing plenty to bring on new talent and to promote it.    The problem is, whoever takes over from NS - as ultimately someone will have to do - will have to fill pretty big shoes, although possibly not the big heels and - to me - right now, I'm not sure there is anyone who matches up to that.

Replacing Salmond was a big job but by the time, Sturgeon was just the obvious candidate.  I think that speaks to the stature of both of them though.    A bit like Leighton and Goram when for the best part of 20 years you didn't worry about who was in goals for Scotland until they were both gone and it was a decade of Neil Sullivan, Jonathan Gould and Rab Douglas until Gordon, McGregor and Marshall came along.

[aaid]

24 minutes ago, ParisInAKilt said:

Mhairi Black ..

is an MP.

[ParisInAKilt]

2 minutes ago, aaid said:

is an MP.

For now

[aaid]

2 minutes ago, ParisInAKilt said:

For now

For the next four years at least, which would rule her out of replacing Nicola Sturgeon should she stand down in that period - which some people are hoping predicting.

[hampden_loon2878]

11 hours ago, thplinth said:

You believe she tried to prevent them? Oh dear...

I guess you missed this...

Made in the First Minister’s Office 264

August 18, 2020  in Uncategorized by craig

---

The first piece of evidence came out at the Holyrood Inquiry today which I have known for the last year but had not been allowed to tell you.

The drafting of the new complaints procedure so that it could be used to fit up Alex Salmond was NOT a unionist scheme hatched in Whitehall and implemented by Leslie Evans, a UK civil servant. I have seen fellow SNP members give themselve false comfort with the idea it was Whitehall and not Nicola; I have tried gently to explain they are wrong, without ever being able to produce the evidence, although I had it.

This is the first morsel of a very great deal of evidence that is going to come out.

The adoption of a new complaints procedure that permitted retrospective complaints against former ministers was in fact cooked up between Leslie Evans and Nicola Sturgeon. LONDON ADVISED AGAINST IT. The Cabinet Office strongly advised that it would be “unwise” to allow retrospective action against ex-ministers. Nicola and Evans decided to plough ahead and implement the policy against London’s advice. They must have had a strong motive for that. Evans denied today that the policy was designed against Alex Salmond. I certainly do not believe her, and there is much more to come.

This is the evidence of Leslie Evans that confirmed this today. As I say, I had known this a long while but was not able to reveal it as I was pledged to confidence. The emails before the committee show indisputably in writing the Cabinet Office advice against the retrospective complaints policy. This is the first piece in a jigsaw, but it is a key piece. I have seen enough other pieces, too, to have no doubt at all of the final picture.

Video Player

 

 

 

00:00

 

01:27

 

 

I cannot tell you how desperately I wish all of this was not true. I cannot tell you how desperately I wish the plot against Alex Salmond had indeed all been made in Whitehall. I cannot tell you how much I have hated the fact that my knowledge of Nicola’s plot against Alex has alienated me from so many fellow SNP members I worked alongside during the 2014 campaign. I do hope that scales are at least beginning now to drop from some eyes.

Put this together with Nicola’s insistence there can be no Independence without a referendum, and there must be no referendum without Westminster permission and a S30 order. Put this together with Nicola’s insistence that even discussion of Independence is off the agenda until after Covid and its economic consequences are past. Put this together with the NEC blocking of Joanna Cherry – which Sturgeon and Murrell were definitely behind. Put this together, if I may, with the attempt to jail me for writing this blog.

https://www.craigmurray.org.uk/archives/2020/08/made-in-the-first-ministers-office/

All they had to do was follow the advice given and none of this would ever have happened to Salmond.

NS and Evans overruled that to specifically allow retrospective claims despite being explicitly advised against it by Westminster. If they had wanted to prevent this that was their golden opportunity. They went out of their way to do the exact opposite.

Almost immediately the accusations were made against Salmond.

They did not try to prevent, they went out their way to enable it.

I am sorry Loon but you are living in a dream world when it comes to NS.

Hey i am not denying there is a possibility, i simply don't believe it or at least to the extent wings or murray are reporting it. Whatever way you look at it shes fucked up big time. It will be very hard to cope with the fallout of this if you are indeed correct 

[Toepoke]

If internet meme volume is anything to go by then Sturgeon's approval ratings have plummeted in the past couple of days. It seems nothing annoys the Scots more than stopping us taking a swally.

 

[exile]

1 hour ago, Toepoke said:

If internet meme volume is anything to go by then Sturgeon's approval ratings have plummeted in the past couple of days. It seems nothing annoys the Scots more than stopping us taking a swally.

 

I have indeed noticed more negativity than usual, this week. This included angry reactions even before the actual measures were announced, as well as after. But, I wonder if it's disproportionately an internet thing, relative to the TV/radio vox pops and the columnists and news-framers in traditional media.

[exile]

When the Salmond scandal erupted, many were dismayed; the accusation looked bad; but many people were prepared to wait until all the evidence was aired, and so considered him innocent until proven guilty. Some were dismayed that so many people were happy to throw Salmond under the bus before he had even had a chance to defend himself.

[aaid]

6 hours ago, exile said:

When the Salmond scandal erupted, many were dismayed; the accusation looked bad; but many people were prepared to wait until all the evidence was aired, and so considered him innocent until proven guilty. Some were dismayed that so many people were happy to throw Salmond under the bus before he had even had a chance to defend himself.

Many of who are now doing that to the current FM.  

Its almost as if some people have other agendas.